Battle for Iran’s Soul: Iranian Election Thread

[Insaanistan]

In June of this year, Iran will hold its Presidential elections. Both reformers and hardliners are will be watching the election and the months leading up to it intently. Many hardliners hoped that if Trump had won the election, the Iran Nuclear Deal would have been lost forever, several hurting the reformist’s chances at dominance. One thing all of Iran’s hardliners agree on: Reformist government has to go.

A familiar face might win the presidency: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ahmadinejad served as Iran’s president for two terms, and constantly faced heavy sanctions due to Iran’s nuclear program. Despite this, a poll of over 1,000 Iranians by Stasis out him as the favorite with 37% of those polled expressing a favorable opinion of him.

Many Iranians who support reformist ideals may be disheartened, as Rouhani failed to follow through on many campaign promises, such as appointing women to his cabinet.

Whoever wins in June will shake Middle Eastern politics one way or another. And things are not looking good for the reformists: last year, most of them were replace by hardliners in Iran’s parliament. A hardliner in power would also certainly negatively affect Sunni Muslims, Jews, Christians, Zoroastrians, Baha’is and atheists in Iran, as it would only strengthen Iran’s Shiā favoritism.

Let’s go into each choice:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Former President of Iran, he took a hardline stance, and governed under ínstense sanctions for his nuclear program.
Hossein Dehghan: A former officer of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, he is an aide of Khamenei and served as Minister Defense for Rouhani from 2013-2017.
Fereydoon Abbasi: Abbasi is a current member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly. He, an Iranian nuclear scientist, survived an assassination attempt in 2010.
Hassan Sobhani: He was not approved for his election bid in 2017, but is a candidate this time round. He was a member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly.
Mohammad Gharazi: A previous Minister of Information and Communications and Technology, former Minister of Petroleum, and former governor of Khuzestan. He received nearly half a million votes in 2013, and is trying his luck again.
Mostafa Kavakebian: Former Islamic Consultative Assembly member, he is now the candidate for the Democracy Party.
Mohammad-Ali Afshani: He was Mayor of Tehran (Iran’s capitol), and is the National Trust Party’s candidate.

[Sundiata]

I don't have a preferred candidate.

[Nakena]

Marg bar jomhuri e-islami

[Shrillland]

In June of this year, Iran will hold its Presidential elections. Both reformers and hardliners are will be watching the election and the months leading up to it intently. Many hardliners hoped that if Trump had won the election, the Iran Nuclear Deal would have been lost forever, several hurting the reformist’s chances at dominance. One thing all of Iran’s hardliners agree on: Reformist government has to go.

A familiar face might win the presidency: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ahmadinejad served as Iran’s president for two terms, and constantly faced heavy sanctions due to Iran’s nuclear program. Despite this, a poll of over 1,000 Iranians by Stasis out him as the favorite with 37% of those polled expressing a favorable opinion of him.

Many Iranians who support reformist ideals may be disheartened, as Rouhani failed to follow through on many campaign promises, such as appointing women to his cabinet.

Whoever wins in June will shake Middle Eastern politics one way or another. And things are not looking good for the reformists: last year, most of them were replace by hardliners in Iran’s parliament. A hardliner in power would also certainly negatively affect Sunni Muslims, Jews, Christians, Zoroastrians, Baha’is and atheists in Iran, as it would only strengthen Iran’s Shiā favoritism.

Let’s go into each choice:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Former President of Iran, he took a hardline stance, and governed under ínstense sanctions for his nuclear program.
Hossein Dehghan: A former officer of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, he is an aide of Khamenei and served as Minister Defense for Rouhani from 2013-2017.
Fereydoon Abbasi: Abbasi is a current member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly. He, an Iranian nuclear scientist, survived an assassination attempt in 2010.
Hassan Sobhani: He was not approved for his election bid in 2017, but is a candidate this time round. He was a member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly.
Mohammad Gharazi: A previous Minister of Information and Communications and Technology, former Minister of Petroleum, and former governor of Khuzestan. He received nearly half a million votes in 2013, and is trying his luck again.
Mostafa Kavakebian: Former Islamic Consultative Assembly member, he is now the candidate for the Democracy Party.
Mohammad-Ali Afshani: He was Mayor of Tehran (Iran’s capitol), and is the National Trust Party’s candidate.

Of all who are currently running, and there's still several who might jump in before the Guardian Council makes the lists final, I would say Afshani. Mayor of Teheran is always a stepping stone to the Presidency, and a reformist would certainly go a long way towards better relations. Having said that, though, I think Kavakebian's also a decent choice since he comes from the Coalition of Eight, which is close to Rouhani's own MDP.

If Ahmadinejad decides to run, however, there's no point in even monitoring this vote since the Ayatollah will ensure he wins.

[Insaanistan]

Marg bar jomhuri e-islami

Marg bar jomhuri-e-islami
Zindabad Islam.

[Insaanistan]

In June of this year, Iran will hold its Presidential elections. Both reformers and hardliners are will be watching the election and the months leading up to it intently. Many hardliners hoped that if Trump had won the election, the Iran Nuclear Deal would have been lost forever, several hurting the reformist’s chances at dominance. One thing all of Iran’s hardliners agree on: Reformist government has to go.

A familiar face might win the presidency: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ahmadinejad served as Iran’s president for two terms, and constantly faced heavy sanctions due to Iran’s nuclear program. Despite this, a poll of over 1,000 Iranians by Stasis out him as the favorite with 37% of those polled expressing a favorable opinion of him.

Many Iranians who support reformist ideals may be disheartened, as Rouhani failed to follow through on many campaign promises, such as appointing women to his cabinet.

Whoever wins in June will shake Middle Eastern politics one way or another. And things are not looking good for the reformists: last year, most of them were replace by hardliners in Iran’s parliament. A hardliner in power would also certainly negatively affect Sunni Muslims, Jews, Christians, Zoroastrians, Baha’is and atheists in Iran, as it would only strengthen Iran’s Shiā favoritism.

Let’s go into each choice:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Former President of Iran, he took a hardline stance, and governed under ínstense sanctions for his nuclear program.
Hossein Dehghan: A former officer of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, he is an aide of Khamenei and served as Minister Defense for Rouhani from 2013-2017.
Fereydoon Abbasi: Abbasi is a current member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly. He, an Iranian nuclear scientist, survived an assassination attempt in 2010.
Hassan Sobhani: He was not approved for his election bid in 2017, but is a candidate this time round. He was a member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly.
Mohammad Gharazi: A previous Minister of Information and Communications and Technology, former Minister of Petroleum, and former governor of Khuzestan. He received nearly half a million votes in 2013, and is trying his luck again.
Mostafa Kavakebian: Former Islamic Consultative Assembly member, he is now the candidate for the Democracy Party.
Mohammad-Ali Afshani: He was Mayor of Tehran (Iran’s capitol), and is the National Trust Party’s candidate.

Of all who are currently running, and there's still several who might jump in before the Guardian Council makes the lists final, I would say Afshani. Mayor of Teheran is always a stepping stone to the Presidency, and a reformist would certainly go a long way towards better relations. Having said that, though, I think Kavakebian's also a decent choice since he comes from the Coalition of Eight, which is close to Rouhani's own MDP.

If Ahmadinejad decides to run, however, there's no point in even monitoring this vote since the Ayatollah will ensure he wins.

I agree. God protect Iran if that happens.

[Insaanistan]

I don't have a preferred candidate.

I imagine most people are like you.

[Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana]

Ahmadinejad is definitely going to return, regardless of his popular support. Iran’s system of government is extremely complicated, but in a nutshell, the theocracy takes precedence over the democracy, meaning Khamenei has the power to make him win (and will likely do so) if he runs.

This will likely result in widespread opposition movements, as Rouhani’s moderate government gave quite a few concessions to the reformers over the last decade

[San Lumen]

Ahmadinejad is definitely going to return, regardless of his popular support. Iran’s system of government is extremely complicated, but in a nutshell, the theocracy takes precedence over the democracy, meaning Khamenei has the power to make him win (and will likely do so) if he runs.

This will likely result in widespread opposition movements, as Rouhani’s moderate government gave quite a few concessions to the reformers over the last decade

And it will go nowhere as the regime will crush it like they did after the rigged vote in 2009.

[Arisyan]

all the candidates currently registered to run suck, so I wouldn't find myself supporting any of them. I really hope a Reformist decides to run, there are quite a few reformists who I think would do well in the election.

But this is definitely going to be a very pivotal election in the Middle East, thats for sure.

[Shrillland]

Ahmadinejad is definitely going to return, regardless of his popular support. Iran’s system of government is extremely complicated, but in a nutshell, the theocracy takes precedence over the democracy, meaning Khamenei has the power to make him win (and will likely do so) if he runs.

This will likely result in widespread opposition movements, as Rouhani’s moderate government gave quite a few concessions to the reformers over the last decade

And it will go nowhere as the regime will crush it like they did after the rigged vote in 2009.

Most likely. I remember being stumped by it when it happened, the Islamic Republic had never resorted to outright cheating before then, and they haven't done so since. But Ahmadinejad was special because he was what Iran was seen to need at that time, basically a sword to attack both the US and Saudi Arabia, and I can see why the hardliners want him back so much.

If he chooses not to run, I think Gharazi would be the hardliners top choice since he is one of the Founding Fathers of the Islamic Republic still active.

[San Lumen]

And it will go nowhere as the regime will crush it like they did after the rigged vote in 2009.

Most likely. I remember being stumped by it when it happened, the Islamic Republic had never resorted to outright cheating before then, and they haven't done so since. But Ahmadinejad was special because he was what Iran was seen to need at that time, basically a sword to attack both the US and Saudi Arabia, and I can see why the hardliners want him back so much.

If he chooses not to run, I think Gharazi would be the hardliners top choice since he is one of the Founding Fathers of the Islamic Republic still active.

How likely is it he runs?

[Intaglio]

Does it really matter when Iran is still a theocracy under Khameini? No real reform will happen until the whole system is overhauled

[San Lumen]

Does it really matter when Iran is still a theocracy under Khameini? No real reform will happen until the whole system is overhauled

The regime isn't falling anytime soon.

[Shrillland]

Most likely. I remember being stumped by it when it happened, the Islamic Republic had never resorted to outright cheating before then, and they haven't done so since. But Ahmadinejad was special because he was what Iran was seen to need at that time, basically a sword to attack both the US and Saudi Arabia, and I can see why the hardliners want him back so much.

If he chooses not to run, I think Gharazi would be the hardliners top choice since he is one of the Founding Fathers of the Islamic Republic still active.

How likely is it he runs?

Difficult to say. In the article that Wiki mentions about how he could possibly enter the race, it also mentions that a lot of his base aren't exactly big fans of his, and his poll numbers seem to be more on name recognition than anything else. The working-class hardliners will vote for him if no one else seems strong, but he doesn't have as many friends in the ICA or the Assembly of Experts as he used to. The Ayatollah's support, however, would more than offset any potential minuses. As I said, the government had never rigged a vote before 2009 and hasn't done so since. If Ayatollah Khamenei effectively forces him into it, or if there's enough anger at the Reformists(and there is plenty of schadenfreude towards Rouhani on the Hardliners part over the collapse of the nuclear agreement and Solemani's assassination), he could possibly join. Time is short, however, the election is on Friday, June 18, and the Guardian Council will probably start testing candidates in the next few weeks.

[San Lumen]

How likely is it he runs?

Difficult to say. In the article that Wiki mentions about how he could possibly enter the race, it also mentions that a lot of his base aren't exactly big fans of his, and his poll numbers seem to be more on name recognition than anything else. The working-class hardliners will vote for him if no one else seems strong, but he doesn't have as many friends in the ICA or the Assembly of Experts as he used to. The Ayatollah's support, however, would more than offset any potential minuses. As I said, the government had never rigged a vote before 2009 and hasn't done so since. If Ayatollah Khamenei effectively forces him into it, or if there's enough anger at the Reformists(and there is plenty of schadenfreude towards Rouhani on the Hardliners part over the collapse of the nuclear agreement and Solemani's assassination), he could possibly join. Time is short, however, the election is on Friday, June 18, and the Guardian Council will probably start testing candidates in the next few weeks.

If he runs the Ayatollah is going to rig the vote for him and the regime wont fall therefore its set in stone if he runs.

[Shrillland]

Difficult to say. In the article that Wiki mentions about how he could possibly enter the race, it also mentions that a lot of his base aren't exactly big fans of his, and his poll numbers seem to be more on name recognition than anything else. The working-class hardliners will vote for him if no one else seems strong, but he doesn't have as many friends in the ICA or the Assembly of Experts as he used to. The Ayatollah's support, however, would more than offset any potential minuses. As I said, the government had never rigged a vote before 2009 and hasn't done so since. If Ayatollah Khamenei effectively forces him into it, or if there's enough anger at the Reformists(and there is plenty of schadenfreude towards Rouhani on the Hardliners part over the collapse of the nuclear agreement and Solemani's assassination), he could possibly join. Time is short, however, the election is on Friday, June 18, and the Guardian Council will probably start testing candidates in the next few weeks.

If he runs the Ayatollah is going to rig the vote for him and the regime wont fall therefore its set in stone if he runs.

The regime can't fall at this point, anyway. It's been 42 years and Iran is now effectively a regional giant that represents Eastern interests against the Western-backed Saudis. If any hint of trouble were to come, Russia and China would come to Iran's help in one way or another.

[Major-Tom]

Does it really matter when Iran is still a theocracy under Khameini? No real reform will happen until the whole system is overhauled

The regime isn't falling anytime soon.

Nearly half of dictatorial regimes fall rapidly, not gradually. With Iran's cataclysmic economic numbers & large discontent among the youth, I'd reckon it's possible. Not likely, but very possible.

[San Lumen]

If he runs the Ayatollah is going to rig the vote for him and the regime wont fall therefore its set in stone if he runs.

The regime can't fall at this point, anyway. It's been 42 years and Iran is now effectively a regional giant that represents Eastern interests against the Western-backed Saudis. If any hint of trouble were to come, Russia and China would come to Iran's help in one way or another.

Thats what I'm saying. The vote will be rigged for the former president if he runs and the Ayatollah knows no amount of protests or unrest will bring down the regime. Hopefully the Guardian Council rejects him but I doubt they would or even better he doesn't run.

His nomination was rejected by the Council in 2017.

[Suriyanakhon]

I just want the Shah back tbqh.

[Insaanistan]

I just want the Shah back tbqh.

NO!

[Insaanistan]

Whether we support the shah, the Ayatollah, or neither, we can all agree on one thing:
Mossadegh shouldn’t have been removed,

[Shrillland]

I just want the Shah back tbqh.

No, the Shah wasn't good for Iran either. Yes, they were more secular, but they were also actually less democratic than they are today. We have MI6 and the CIA to thank for that, but still.

[Washington Resistance Army]

Bring back the Persian Empire, Zoroastrianism state religion now

[Insaanistan]

Bring back the Persian Empire, Zoroastrianism state religion now

Compromise: Bring back Ūmar or Ūthman.