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NS Non-Military Realism Consultation Thread Mk. 4

A place to put national factbooks, embassy exchanges, and other information regarding the nations of the world. [In character]

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European Federation Reunified
Envoy
 
Posts: 211
Founded: Jun 20, 2020
New York Times Democracy

Postby European Federation Reunified » Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:32 pm

Triplebaconation wrote:
European Federation Reunified wrote:What kind of problems (especially bureaucratic) does an entrepreneur who wants to expand his restaurant chain within a federal state face, in addition to the economic ones?


What do you mean? A single state or expanding to different states in a federal system? Obviously this will vary between nations.

Yes, I meant in the different states of the federation. If I have to specify a country, we can refer to the United States of America. And if someone wants to give an example of a different federation, he can say so.

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The Akasha Colony
Postmaster-General
 
Posts: 14117
Founded: Apr 25, 2010
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The Akasha Colony » Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:43 pm

Langenia wrote:Is it realistically possible for a politician to rise to the post of head of state with a previous political career of only eight years?


The previous US president was elected with no prior political career of any kind so it's obviously possible.

In a more conventional example, George W. Bush was elected president with only a term and a half as governor of Texas under his belt, though obviously the Bush family had been involved in politics for a long time before that.
A colony of the New Free Planets Alliance.
The primary MT nation of this account is the Republic of Carthage.
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Austria-Bohemia-Hungary
Post Marshal
 
Posts: 15154
Founded: Jun 28, 2011
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Austria-Bohemia-Hungary » Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:46 pm

Langenia wrote:Is it realistically possible for a politician to rise to the post of head of state with a previous political career of only eight years?

Sure, be a general and march two tank regiments down to parliament to convince the parliamentarians of your "suitability". Claim some nebulous national crisis that made you do a Myanmar.
<.>
Last edited by Austria-Bohemia-Hungary on Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Triplebaconation
Senator
 
Posts: 3940
Founded: Feb 22, 2013
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Triplebaconation » Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:49 pm

European Federation Reunified wrote:
Triplebaconation wrote:
What do you mean? A single state or expanding to different states in a federal system? Obviously this will vary between nations.

Yes, I meant in the different states of the federation. If I have to specify a country, we can refer to the United States of America. And if someone wants to give an example of a different federation, he can say so.


In the US the only real requirement is registering as a corporation in each state in which you do business.

The real problems will be complying with different state tax laws, jurisdiction and choice of law issues in legal actions, and the issues that come with expanding any business - a single restaurant will probably be exempted from various federal regulations that will apply to a chain restaurant.
Proverbs 23:9.

Things are a bit larger than you appear to think, my friend.

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Langenia
Negotiator
 
Posts: 6752
Founded: Apr 22, 2020
Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby Langenia » Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:02 pm

The Akasha Colony wrote:
Langenia wrote:Is it realistically possible for a politician to rise to the post of head of state with a previous political career of only eight years?


The previous US president was elected with no prior political career of any kind so it's obviously possible.

In a more conventional example, George W. Bush was elected president with only a term and a half as governor of Texas under his belt, though obviously the Bush family had been involved in politics for a long time before that.


My guy's family also has been in politics for a while, so I guess his rule would make sense.

Austria-Bohemia-Hungary wrote:
Langenia wrote:Is it realistically possible for a politician to rise to the post of head of state with a previous political career of only eight years?

Sure, be a general and march two tank regiments down to parliament to convince the parliamentarians of your "suitability". Claim some nebulous national crisis that made you do a Myanmar.
<.>


Haha the politicians said yes to his "suitability."
LANGENIA
Fatherland, Unity, and Valor
Overview|Armed Forces|Politics|Embassy Program|LangenArPort| Incumbent President: Nicolas Furia
Langenia is an MT-early PMT nation located in northern South America, the result of Spain not successfully colonizing the region but leaving its mark. Some NS stats are used. We outpollo PolloHut.
NEWS: Following Insaani coup that removes royal family and installs new hardline Islamist regime, Insaanistan fights Christian countries and oppresses non-Muslims. Arms embargo imposed by Aragon, along with sanctions on regime officials and combat operations.| OAS meeting to take place soon.| Langenia distances from Cassadia.| Vaccinations continue, COVID restrictions to be eased.| AeroLangenia begins international flights again.| This is LCNA.

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Austria-Bohemia-Hungary
Post Marshal
 
Posts: 15154
Founded: Jun 28, 2011
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Austria-Bohemia-Hungary » Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:09 pm

Langenia wrote:Haha the politicians said yes to his "suitability."

You may laugh but in 1993 the Tamanskaya Mot-Rifle Division did march on the Russian parliament and Yeltsin remained president thanks to it.
Last edited by Austria-Bohemia-Hungary on Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Langenia
Negotiator
 
Posts: 6752
Founded: Apr 22, 2020
Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby Langenia » Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:37 pm

Austria-Bohemia-Hungary wrote:
Langenia wrote:Haha the politicians said yes to his "suitability."

You may laugh but in 1993 the Tamanskaya Mot-Rifle Division did march on the Russian parliament and Yeltsin remained president thanks to it.


I've heard about it. I was envisioning something similar happening in my country as part of my lore.
LANGENIA
Fatherland, Unity, and Valor
Overview|Armed Forces|Politics|Embassy Program|LangenArPort| Incumbent President: Nicolas Furia
Langenia is an MT-early PMT nation located in northern South America, the result of Spain not successfully colonizing the region but leaving its mark. Some NS stats are used. We outpollo PolloHut.
NEWS: Following Insaani coup that removes royal family and installs new hardline Islamist regime, Insaanistan fights Christian countries and oppresses non-Muslims. Arms embargo imposed by Aragon, along with sanctions on regime officials and combat operations.| OAS meeting to take place soon.| Langenia distances from Cassadia.| Vaccinations continue, COVID restrictions to be eased.| AeroLangenia begins international flights again.| This is LCNA.

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Ideal Britain
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1666
Founded: Mar 31, 2020
Democratic Socialists

Postby Ideal Britain » Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:23 am

Does the death penalty deter murderers of police?
An MT alt-history Britain.

Prime Minister: Sikandar Khan, CBE, MP

Monarch: Queen Elizabeth II
Year: 2021

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TPFII
Secretary
 
Posts: 38
Founded: Jan 21, 2021
Ex-Nation

Postby TPFII » Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:42 am

Ideal Britain wrote:Does the death penalty deter murderers of police?


A better question would be if the death penalty deters *anything.* Criminals generally intend on not getting caught, so severity of the punishment tends not to be concern.

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Champagne Socialist Sharifistan
Senator
 
Posts: 4471
Founded: Dec 08, 2019
Ex-Nation

Postby Champagne Socialist Sharifistan » Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:47 am

TPFII wrote:
Ideal Britain wrote:Does the death penalty deter murderers of police?


A better question would be if the death penalty deters *anything.* Criminals generally intend on not getting caught, so severity of the punishment tends not to be concern.

Thanks.
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Austrasien
Minister
 
Posts: 3114
Founded: Apr 07, 2013
Iron Fist Consumerists

Postby Austrasien » Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:58 am

Champagne Socialist Sharifistan wrote:
TPFII wrote:
A better question would be if the death penalty deters *anything.* Criminals generally intend on not getting caught, so severity of the punishment tends not to be concern.

Thanks.


This is wrong. Criminals demonstrably weigh risks even if they are not doing it consciously. The death penalty risk has to be high enough to actually exceed a criminal's risk tolerance. In the most famous case, the modern US, it isn't. It is applied so rarely and takes so long on average to occur the chance of being caught and executed is trivially low even for crimes that carry the death penalty. Most American criminals are already tolerating a much higher risk of violent death per time interval just by living the thug life, the additive risk of death row is extremely small so it would not be expected to have a major effect on behaviour.

A much better case would be modern China where violent crime is rare but the death penalty is comparatively common so the death penalty added risk can be expected to be quite heavy. But the quality of data readily available from China isn't good so it's hard to say.
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TPFII
Secretary
 
Posts: 38
Founded: Jan 21, 2021
Ex-Nation

Postby TPFII » Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:42 pm

Austrasien wrote:This is wrong. Criminals demonstrably weigh risks even if they are not doing it consciously. The death penalty risk has to be high enough to actually exceed a criminal's risk tolerance. In the most famous case, the modern US, it isn't. It is applied so rarely and takes so long on average to occur the chance of being caught and executed is trivially low even for crimes that carry the death penalty. Most American criminals are already tolerating a much higher risk of violent death per time interval just by living the thug life, the additive risk of death row is extremely small so it would not be expected to have a major effect on behaviour.

A much better case would be modern China where violent crime is rare but the death penalty is comparatively common so the death penalty added risk can be expected to be quite heavy. But the quality of data readily available from China isn't good so it's hard to say.


Honest question - is the Philippines recent use of the death penalty for drug related crimes proving effective and reducing the problem? IMO, if the goal is to prevent people killing LEOs, a more direct, and thus effective, route would be to give said LEOs the capability to defend/protect themselves. Of course that's making the assumption that LEOs in Ideal Britain aren't already capable of doing so...

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The Akasha Colony
Postmaster-General
 
Posts: 14117
Founded: Apr 25, 2010
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The Akasha Colony » Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:29 pm

TPFII wrote:Honest question - is the Philippines recent use of the death penalty for drug related crimes proving effective and reducing the problem? IMO, if the goal is to prevent people killing LEOs, a more direct, and thus effective, route would be to give said LEOs the capability to defend/protect themselves. Of course that's making the assumption that LEOs in Ideal Britain aren't already capable of doing so...


Filipino police are already well capable of protecting themselves, given that over 5,500 people have been killed in police operations against only 86 officers killed.

There isn't any real evidence that the campaign has worked any better in the Philippines than it has in the US, since as it turns out, arresting or shooting a bunch of low-level street dealers does little to dismantle the international networks that supply them, or the socio-economic conditions that create a market for such drugs.
A colony of the New Free Planets Alliance.
The primary MT nation of this account is the Republic of Carthage.
New Free Planets Alliance (FT)
New Terran Republic (FT)
Republic of Carthage (MT)
World Economic Union (MT)
Kaiserreich Europa Zentral (PT/MT)
Five Republics of Hanalua (FanT)
National Links: Factbook Entry | Embassy Program
Storefronts: Carthaginian Naval Export Authority [MT, Navy]

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TPFII
Secretary
 
Posts: 38
Founded: Jan 21, 2021
Ex-Nation

Postby TPFII » Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:37 pm

Fair enough. If statistics from the US, China, and the Philippines don't seem to be relevant, then which country would?

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The Akasha Colony
Postmaster-General
 
Posts: 14117
Founded: Apr 25, 2010
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The Akasha Colony » Mon Feb 08, 2021 2:54 pm

TPFII wrote:Fair enough. If statistics from the US, China, and the Philippines don't seem to be relevant, then which country would?


Relevant for what? To try to prove that the death penalty specifically deters killing police?

There aren't any. China is the only country that is sufficiently developed and orderly that the threat of violent crime is rare yet the death penalty is comparatively common. Every other developed country that hasn't already abolished the death penalty applies it only in the rarest of cases. On the other hand, the countries that apply the death penalty most liberally tend to have plenty of problems with security and the rule of law anyway. And many countries both developed and undeveloped do not publicly release capital punishment statistics.
A colony of the New Free Planets Alliance.
The primary MT nation of this account is the Republic of Carthage.
New Free Planets Alliance (FT)
New Terran Republic (FT)
Republic of Carthage (MT)
World Economic Union (MT)
Kaiserreich Europa Zentral (PT/MT)
Five Republics of Hanalua (FanT)
National Links: Factbook Entry | Embassy Program
Storefronts: Carthaginian Naval Export Authority [MT, Navy]

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Ideal Britain
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1666
Founded: Mar 31, 2020
Democratic Socialists

Postby Ideal Britain » Mon Feb 08, 2021 2:57 pm

. Of course that's making the assumption that LEOs in Ideal Britain aren't already capable of doing so...

They are but like in any country they can be ambushed. Far-right English nationalists are likely to ambush them.
Sex traffickers are also likely to ambush them but that's a capital offence anyay.
An MT alt-history Britain.

Prime Minister: Sikandar Khan, CBE, MP

Monarch: Queen Elizabeth II
Year: 2021

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Husseinarti
Senator
 
Posts: 4955
Founded: Mar 20, 2015
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Husseinarti » Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:25 pm

LEOs it Bri'ain are to busy cracking down on those without a Telly liosense than to deal with sex trafficking.
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TPFII
Secretary
 
Posts: 38
Founded: Jan 21, 2021
Ex-Nation

Postby TPFII » Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:40 pm

Ideal Britain wrote:
. Of course that's making the assumption that LEOs in Ideal Britain aren't already capable of doing so...

They are but like in any country they can be ambushed. Far-right English nationalists are likely to ambush them.
Sex traffickers are also likely to ambush them but that's a capital offence anyay.


If the issue is violent nationalists, dying is already an occupational hazard so I'm not sure what the death penalty would add to that, short of eliminating the possibility of repeat offenders, at the cost of enriching their propaganda/cause.
Last edited by TPFII on Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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New Visayan Islands
Game Moderator
 
Posts: 5312
Founded: Jan 31, 2017
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby New Visayan Islands » Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:19 pm

The Akasha Colony wrote:
TPFII wrote:Honest question - is the Philippines recent use of the death penalty for drug related crimes proving effective and reducing the problem? IMO, if the goal is to prevent people killing LEOs, a more direct, and thus effective, route would be to give said LEOs the capability to defend/protect themselves. Of course that's making the assumption that LEOs in Ideal Britain aren't already capable of doing so...


Filipino police are already well capable of protecting themselves, given that over 5,500 people have been killed in police operations against only 86 officers killed.

There isn't any real evidence that the campaign has worked any better in the Philippines than it has in the US, since as it turns out, arresting or shooting a bunch of low-level street dealers does little to dismantle the international networks that supply them, or the socio-economic conditions that create a market for such drugs.

Speaking as a Filipino, with the PNP not entirely open to scrutiny and having a bit of a sus track record there is no shortage of people who suspect that "nanlaban" (EN: "[X] fought back") is a dogwhistle for "fuck it, we're shooting [X]."
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Crookfur
Postmaster-General
 
Posts: 10748
Founded: Antiquity
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Crookfur » Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:15 pm

Ideal Britain wrote:
. Of course that's making the assumption that LEOs in Ideal Britain aren't already capable of doing so...

They are but like in any country they can be ambushed. Far-right English nationalists are likely to ambush them.
Sex traffickers are also likely to ambush them but that's a capital offence anyay.

If you are at the point of actively engaging in conflict with police and are actively hunting them then any though of the punishment you will receive is already well out the window.
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Triplebaconation
Senator
 
Posts: 3940
Founded: Feb 22, 2013
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Triplebaconation » Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:30 pm

Husseinarti wrote:LEOs it Bri'ain are to busy cracking down on those without a Telly liosense than to deal with sex trafficking.


This is Ideal Britain so the SAS probably handles the telly tax.
Proverbs 23:9.

Things are a bit larger than you appear to think, my friend.

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Crookfur
Postmaster-General
 
Posts: 10748
Founded: Antiquity
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Crookfur » Tue Feb 09, 2021 2:44 am

Triplebaconation wrote:
Husseinarti wrote:LEOs it Bri'ain are to busy cracking down on those without a Telly liosense than to deal with sex trafficking.


This is Ideal Britain so the SAS probably handles the telly tax.

Nah the special skills of the regiment are required to take down folks who post spicy stuff on twitter.
The Kingdom of Crookfur
Your ordinary everyday scotiodanavian freedom loving utopia!

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Kouralia
Post Marshal
 
Posts: 15071
Founded: Oct 30, 2011
Ex-Nation

Postby Kouralia » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:27 pm

Ideal Britain wrote:Does the death penalty deter murderers of police?

No.

Severity of punishment does not deter offending. Principally the likelihood of being caught and being afforded that punishment deters that offending - in a rational offender.

Sorry, I heard a policing question.
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Gallia-
Postmaster of the Fleet
 
Posts: 23176
Founded: Oct 09, 2013
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Gallia- » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:44 pm

Kouralia wrote:Severity of punishment does not deter offending.


Only if you ignore half the equation. It's a non-controversial and basic statement to say that any threat needs to backed by a credible willingness to follow through.

No Western country has a credible death penalty because you literally spend 20-30 years on death row and will probably die of boredom before you get injected or whatever. OTOH Singapore has a reasonably credible death penalty for small time drug peddlers, since it routinely hangs people for smuggling marijuana or whatever.

Kouralia wrote:Principally the likelihood of being caught and being afforded that punishment deters that offending - in a rational offender.


It works fine for quite a few countries in Africa and Asia, but these countries tend to execute people on the spot, or after a brief trial, and do so relatively frequently.

The United States simply doesn't kill enough people often enough for the death penalty to matter. Arguably, neither does the PRC (for some crimes anyway), and the PRC has a criminal code that looks like the UK's old Bloody Code.
Last edited by Gallia- on Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Triplebaconation
Senator
 
Posts: 3940
Founded: Feb 22, 2013
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Triplebaconation » Fri Feb 12, 2021 10:12 pm

Kouralia is right in that marginal deterrence is very difficult to measure. The gap between a mild sanction and a severe one may be surprisingly small.

There are so many confounding factors in murder rates that any deterrent effect for a vanishingly rare crime like murder of police officers will likely be lost in the noise.
Proverbs 23:9.

Things are a bit larger than you appear to think, my friend.

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