Worldbuilding Realism Consultation Thread Mk. 4

[European Federation Reunified]

What kind of problems (especially bureaucratic) does an entrepreneur who wants to expand his restaurant chain within a federal state face, in addition to the economic ones?

What do you mean? A single state or expanding to different states in a federal system? Obviously this will vary between nations.

Yes, I meant in the different states of the federation. If I have to specify a country, we can refer to the United States of America. And if someone wants to give an example of a different federation, he can say so.

[The Akasha Colony]

Is it realistically possible for a politician to rise to the post of head of state with a previous political career of only eight years?

The previous US president was elected with no prior political career of any kind so it's obviously possible.

In a more conventional example, George W. Bush was elected president with only a term and a half as governor of Texas under his belt, though obviously the Bush family had been involved in politics for a long time before that.

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

Is it realistically possible for a politician to rise to the post of head of state with a previous political career of only eight years?

Sure, be a general and march two tank regiments down to parliament to convince the parliamentarians of your "suitability". Claim some nebulous national crisis that made you do a Myanmar.
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[Triplebaconation]

What do you mean? A single state or expanding to different states in a federal system? Obviously this will vary between nations.

Yes, I meant in the different states of the federation. If I have to specify a country, we can refer to the United States of America. And if someone wants to give an example of a different federation, he can say so.

In the US the only real requirement is registering as a corporation in each state in which you do business.

The real problems will be complying with different state tax laws, jurisdiction and choice of law issues in legal actions, and the issues that come with expanding any business - a single restaurant will probably be exempted from various federal regulations that will apply to a chain restaurant.

[Langenia]

Is it realistically possible for a politician to rise to the post of head of state with a previous political career of only eight years?

The previous US president was elected with no prior political career of any kind so it's obviously possible.

In a more conventional example, George W. Bush was elected president with only a term and a half as governor of Texas under his belt, though obviously the Bush family had been involved in politics for a long time before that.

My guy's family also has been in politics for a while, so I guess his rule would make sense.

Is it realistically possible for a politician to rise to the post of head of state with a previous political career of only eight years?

Sure, be a general and march two tank regiments down to parliament to convince the parliamentarians of your "suitability". Claim some nebulous national crisis that made you do a Myanmar.
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Haha the politicians said yes to his "suitability."

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

Haha the politicians said yes to his "suitability."

You may laugh but in 1993 the Tamanskaya Mot-Rifle Division did march on the Russian parliament and Yeltsin remained president thanks to it.

[Langenia]

Haha the politicians said yes to his "suitability."

You may laugh but in 1993 the Tamanskaya Mot-Rifle Division did march on the Russian parliament and Yeltsin remained president thanks to it.

I've heard about it. I was envisioning something similar happening in my country as part of my lore.

[Ideal Britain]

Does the death penalty deter murderers of police?

[TPFII]

Does the death penalty deter murderers of police?

A better question would be if the death penalty deters *anything.* Criminals generally intend on not getting caught, so severity of the punishment tends not to be concern.

[Champagne Socialist Sharifistan]

Does the death penalty deter murderers of police?

A better question would be if the death penalty deters *anything.* Criminals generally intend on not getting caught, so severity of the punishment tends not to be concern.

Thanks.

[Austrasien]

A better question would be if the death penalty deters *anything.* Criminals generally intend on not getting caught, so severity of the punishment tends not to be concern.

Thanks.

This is wrong. Criminals demonstrably weigh risks even if they are not doing it consciously. The death penalty risk has to be high enough to actually exceed a criminal's risk tolerance. In the most famous case, the modern US, it isn't. It is applied so rarely and takes so long on average to occur the chance of being caught and executed is trivially low even for crimes that carry the death penalty. Most American criminals are already tolerating a much higher risk of violent death per time interval just by living the thug life, the additive risk of death row is extremely small so it would not be expected to have a major effect on behaviour.

A much better case would be modern China where violent crime is rare but the death penalty is comparatively common so the death penalty added risk can be expected to be quite heavy. But the quality of data readily available from China isn't good so it's hard to say.

[TPFII]

This is wrong. Criminals demonstrably weigh risks even if they are not doing it consciously. The death penalty risk has to be high enough to actually exceed a criminal's risk tolerance. In the most famous case, the modern US, it isn't. It is applied so rarely and takes so long on average to occur the chance of being caught and executed is trivially low even for crimes that carry the death penalty. Most American criminals are already tolerating a much higher risk of violent death per time interval just by living the thug life, the additive risk of death row is extremely small so it would not be expected to have a major effect on behaviour.

A much better case would be modern China where violent crime is rare but the death penalty is comparatively common so the death penalty added risk can be expected to be quite heavy. But the quality of data readily available from China isn't good so it's hard to say.

Honest question - is the Philippines recent use of the death penalty for drug related crimes proving effective and reducing the problem? IMO, if the goal is to prevent people killing LEOs, a more direct, and thus effective, route would be to give said LEOs the capability to defend/protect themselves. Of course that's making the assumption that LEOs in Ideal Britain aren't already capable of doing so...

[The Akasha Colony]

Honest question - is the Philippines recent use of the death penalty for drug related crimes proving effective and reducing the problem? IMO, if the goal is to prevent people killing LEOs, a more direct, and thus effective, route would be to give said LEOs the capability to defend/protect themselves. Of course that's making the assumption that LEOs in Ideal Britain aren't already capable of doing so...

Filipino police are already well capable of protecting themselves, given that over 5,500 people have been killed in police operations against only 86 officers killed.

There isn't any real evidence that the campaign has worked any better in the Philippines than it has in the US, since as it turns out, arresting or shooting a bunch of low-level street dealers does little to dismantle the international networks that supply them, or the socio-economic conditions that create a market for such drugs.

[TPFII]

Fair enough. If statistics from the US, China, and the Philippines don't seem to be relevant, then which country would?

[The Akasha Colony]

Fair enough. If statistics from the US, China, and the Philippines don't seem to be relevant, then which country would?

Relevant for what? To try to prove that the death penalty specifically deters killing police?

There aren't any. China is the only country that is sufficiently developed and orderly that the threat of violent crime is rare yet the death penalty is comparatively common. Every other developed country that hasn't already abolished the death penalty applies it only in the rarest of cases. On the other hand, the countries that apply the death penalty most liberally tend to have plenty of problems with security and the rule of law anyway. And many countries both developed and undeveloped do not publicly release capital punishment statistics.

[Ideal Britain]

. Of course that's making the assumption that LEOs in Ideal Britain aren't already capable of doing so...

They are but like in any country they can be ambushed. Far-right English nationalists are likely to ambush them.
Sex traffickers are also likely to ambush them but that's a capital offence anyay.

[Husseinarti]

LEOs it Bri'ain are to busy cracking down on those without a Telly liosense than to deal with sex trafficking.

[TPFII]

. Of course that's making the assumption that LEOs in Ideal Britain aren't already capable of doing so...

They are but like in any country they can be ambushed. Far-right English nationalists are likely to ambush them.
Sex traffickers are also likely to ambush them but that's a capital offence anyay.

If the issue is violent nationalists, dying is already an occupational hazard so I'm not sure what the death penalty would add to that, short of eliminating the possibility of repeat offenders, at the cost of enriching their propaganda/cause.

[New Visayan Islands]

Honest question - is the Philippines recent use of the death penalty for drug related crimes proving effective and reducing the problem? IMO, if the goal is to prevent people killing LEOs, a more direct, and thus effective, route would be to give said LEOs the capability to defend/protect themselves. Of course that's making the assumption that LEOs in Ideal Britain aren't already capable of doing so...

Filipino police are already well capable of protecting themselves, given that over 5,500 people have been killed in police operations against only 86 officers killed.

There isn't any real evidence that the campaign has worked any better in the Philippines than it has in the US, since as it turns out, arresting or shooting a bunch of low-level street dealers does little to dismantle the international networks that supply them, or the socio-economic conditions that create a market for such drugs.

Speaking as a Filipino, with the PNP not entirely open to scrutiny and having a bit of a sus track record there is no shortage of people who suspect that "nanlaban" (EN: "[X] fought back") is a dogwhistle for "fuck it, we're shooting [X]."

[Crookfur]

. Of course that's making the assumption that LEOs in Ideal Britain aren't already capable of doing so...

They are but like in any country they can be ambushed. Far-right English nationalists are likely to ambush them.
Sex traffickers are also likely to ambush them but that's a capital offence anyay.

If you are at the point of actively engaging in conflict with police and are actively hunting them then any though of the punishment you will receive is already well out the window.

[Triplebaconation]

LEOs it Bri'ain are to busy cracking down on those without a Telly liosense than to deal with sex trafficking.

This is Ideal Britain so the SAS probably handles the telly tax.

[Crookfur]

LEOs it Bri'ain are to busy cracking down on those without a Telly liosense than to deal with sex trafficking.

This is Ideal Britain so the SAS probably handles the telly tax.

Nah the special skills of the regiment are required to take down folks who post spicy stuff on twitter.

[Kouralia]

Does the death penalty deter murderers of police?

No.

Severity of punishment does not deter offending. Principally the likelihood of being caught and being afforded that punishment deters that offending - in a rational offender.

Sorry, I heard a policing question.

[Gallia-]

Severity of punishment does not deter offending.

Only if you ignore half the equation. It's a non-controversial and basic statement to say that any threat needs to backed by a credible willingness to follow through.

No Western country has a credible death penalty because you literally spend 20-30 years on death row and will probably die of boredom before you get injected or whatever. OTOH Singapore has a reasonably credible death penalty for small time drug peddlers, since it routinely hangs people for smuggling marijuana or whatever.

Principally the likelihood of being caught and being afforded that punishment deters that offending - in a rational offender.

It works fine for quite a few countries in Africa and Asia, but these countries tend to execute people on the spot, or after a brief trial, and do so relatively frequently.

The United States simply doesn't kill enough people often enough for the death penalty to matter. Arguably, neither does the PRC (for some crimes anyway), and the PRC has a criminal code that looks like the UK's old Bloody Code.

[Triplebaconation]

Kouralia is right in that marginal deterrence is very difficult to measure. The gap between a mild sanction and a severe one may be surprisingly small.

There are so many confounding factors in murder rates that any deterrent effect for a vanishingly rare crime like murder of police officers will likely be lost in the noise.