German Politics I: Turn Left at the Traffic Light

[Nakena]

As for the SDP's collapse, that's just because the left is changing and heading towards eco-social democracy instead of classic social democracy, as the Green surge pre-Covid shows.

There is a clear electorate upper-limit to the "academic liberalism" platform of the Greens, and it's not enough for aiming at the chancellery (that would require more than 30% of the vote).

The SPD is collapsing for the same reasons social democracy is collapsing in most Western countries, the inability to reconcile US-style liberalism with their traditional blue-collar voter base.

The total pasokification.

[Ohiawa]

I'd support Die Linke. It's sad to know that the CDU/CSU will most likely be the strongest party again and will lead the government coalition. I think it will either be with the Greens or Greens and FDP; if Lindner won't decline again. Though I am optimistic about future elections. Climate Change will become more of a dramatic issue and people will (hopefully) see that the "attempts" of the Union Parties are not more then symbolic acts. I'd also like to notice that Merkel's reign could have been discontinued after the election of 2013, if the SPD, Greens and Linke would have set aside their differences to create a Center-Left/Left majority coalition. However, It's highly unlikely that this will happen in the comming election in September. (Especially if the SPD keeps going their market liberal way, that has been mostly initiated by Schröder and supported by Olaf Scholz)

[Bienenhalde]

What is the chance that Söder will be the CDU chancellor candidate instead of Laschet?

Not much of one, CSU prefers to stay in Bavaria since regional interests are a core tenet of their platform.

I see. I don't know if I can support Laschet as a candidate for chancellor. I am concerned about his poor handling of the coronavirus pandemic and his overly appeasing attitude towards Russia and China.

[Shrillland]

In today's news, the CDU in the eastern states, who went mostly for Merz, is now slamming Laschet as part of the establishment: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/cdu-laschet-kritik-100.html

And in an interview on ZDF today, Laschet gave his hopes for a new CDU/CSU government including having half the cabinet be made of women and driving AfD down below 5% in the polls come September: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/cdu-vorsitzender-laschet-afd-gruene-100.html

[Nakena]

In today's news, the CDU in the eastern states, who went mostly for Merz, is now slamming Laschet as part of the establishment: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/cdu-laschet-kritik-100.html

And in an interview on ZDF today, Laschet gave his hopes for a new CDU/CSU government including having half the cabinet be made of women and driving AfD down below 5% in the polls come September: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/cdu-vorsitzender-laschet-afd-gruene-100.html

Thats very optimistic. I expect Söder to become chancellor. Laschet doesnt has enough power and he is weak on covid.

[Atheris]

Outsider's perspective, here; I'm personally a fan of the FDP (this is the Free Democratic Party, right?), the Greens, and the SDP. Die Linke's a bit too left for me.

[Bienenhalde]

Thats very optimistic. I expect Söder to become chancellor. Laschet doesnt has enough power and he is weak on covid.

I was hoping for either Söder or Röttgen, but it looks like the latter at least is no longer in the running.

[Shrillland]

In today's news, the CDU in the eastern states, who went mostly for Merz, is now slamming Laschet as part of the establishment: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/cdu-laschet-kritik-100.html

And in an interview on ZDF today, Laschet gave his hopes for a new CDU/CSU government including having half the cabinet be made of women and driving AfD down below 5% in the polls come September: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/cdu-vorsitzender-laschet-afd-gruene-100.html

Thats very optimistic. I expect Söder to become chancellor. Laschet doesnt has enough power and he is weak on covid.

Well, it's never really happened before. No CSU leader has ever been Chancellor, and only two CSU candidates ever got on to the top of the ballot, losing both times.

[Baltenstein]

And in an interview on ZDF today, Laschet gave his hopes for a new CDU/CSU government including having half the cabinet be made of women and driving AfD down below 5% in the polls come September: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/cdu-vorsitzender-laschet-afd-gruene-100.html

How exactly he plans to do this remains his secret.

[Baltenstein]

In today's news, the CDU in the eastern states, who went mostly for Merz, is now slamming Laschet as part of the establishment: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/cdu-laschet-kritik-100.html

And in an interview on ZDF today, Laschet gave his hopes for a new CDU/CSU government including having half the cabinet be made of women and driving AfD down below 5% in the polls come September: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/cdu-vorsitzender-laschet-afd-gruene-100.html

Thats very optimistic. I expect Söder to become chancellor. Laschet doesnt has enough power and he is weak on covid.

If Laschet actually becomes chancellor it will say a lot about Merkel's quasi dynastic hold over her party.

[Risottia]

The "thrill" of this election will consist largely of guesstimating which party (Greens, SPD, FDP) will get to become the CDU's junior partner. I honestly cannot think of a feasible sceario where the CDU doesn't auto-win.

That fact in itself doesn't speak too well of the vitality of Germany's multi-party system. OTOH, if the alternative is US-style partisan polarization, it's probably the lesser evil.

You really want to risk having the ultra-right-wing becoming one of the two poles?
"But Germany isn't America". Look at France.

[Baltenstein]

The "thrill" of this election will consist largely of guesstimating which party (Greens, SPD, FDP) will get to become the CDU's junior partner. I honestly cannot think of a feasible sceario where the CDU doesn't auto-win.

That fact in itself doesn't speak too well of the vitality of Germany's multi-party system. OTOH, if the alternative is US-style partisan polarization, it's probably the lesser evil.

You really want to risk having the ultra-right-wing becoming one of the two poles?
"But Germany isn't America". Look at France.

I explicitedly said that the current state of affairs is the lesser evil. That still does not mean it's good. And honestly, I predict that we will be getting this development sooner or later anyways, if countries more socially and demographically similar to Germany are any indication. Look no further than Austria, where politics are dominated by a charismatic right-winger, after decades of the traditional two-party stystem stagnating itself into oblivion.

[Bienenhalde]

In today's news, the CDU in the eastern states, who went mostly for Merz, is now slamming Laschet as part of the establishment: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/cdu-laschet-kritik-100.html

And in an interview on ZDF today, Laschet gave his hopes for a new CDU/CSU government including having half the cabinet be made of women and driving AfD down below 5% in the polls come September: https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/cdu-vorsitzender-laschet-afd-gruene-100.html

Thats very optimistic. I expect Söder to become chancellor. Laschet doesnt has enough power and he is weak on covid.

Söder would be a better candidate than Laschet, but what are the chances that he would actually run for the position?

[The Blaatschapen]

I cannot vote in the national election.

I can vote in the Berlin one.

And I will do so.

Probably greens, if they have good plans for getting more and better bicycle lanes in the city.

[Page]

I cannot vote in the national election.

I can vote in the Berlin one.

And I will do so.

Probably greens, if they have good plans for getting more and better bicycle lanes in the city.

I would honestly be too afraid to ride a bicycle in my city, all the lanes are on the road next to cars with no kind of barrier separating them and every few months a cyclist gets hit by a car or bus.

It would be nice for there to be more bike lanes away from the roads. There are in the forests outside the city but that's mainly for recreation, not getting to somewhere.

The Greens here have talked about closing off the city center to cars entirely which I think would be good although very few people drive into those parts anyway.

[The Blaatschapen]

I cannot vote in the national election.

I can vote in the Berlin one.

And I will do so.

Probably greens, if they have good plans for getting more and better bicycle lanes in the city.

I would honestly be too afraid to ride a bicycle in my city, all the lanes are on the road next to cars with no kind of barrier separating them and every few months a cyclist gets hit by a car or bus.

It would be nice for there to be more bike lanes away from the roads. There are in the forests outside the city but that's mainly for recreation, not getting to somewhere.

The Greens here have talked about closing off the city center to cars entirely which I think would be good although very few people drive into those parts anyway.

Yeah, we have quite a few places where we have to share the bus lane.

Or indeed, next to the regular cars.

Also a few nice lanes for ourselves though I want more of that.

[Arisyan]

well well well the country with my favourite electoral system (MMP). My personal support goes to The Left and Alliance 90s-the Greens, whom I would vote for the PR ballot and FPTP ballot respectively. Polls aren't looking too good however Im hoping against hope the SDP, A90-TG and DL can manage to somehow get a combined majority. But I know thats probably unrealistic. I expect a CDU-FDP coalition or a CDU-TG coalition to occur.

[Shrillland]

well well well the country with my favourite electoral system (MMP). My personal support goes to The Left and Alliance 90s-the Greens, whom I would vote for the PR ballot and FPTP ballot respectively. Polls aren't looking too good however Im hoping against hope the SDP, A90-TG and DL can manage to somehow get a combined majority. But I know thats probably unrealistic. I expect a CDU-FDP coalition or a CDU-TG coalition to occur.

I'm thinking CDU-FDP myself if the numbers hold. Eight months is a long time, but unlike the Netherlands, there aren't any welfare scandals to rock the government.

[Arisyan]

well well well the country with my favourite electoral system (MMP). My personal support goes to The Left and Alliance 90s-the Greens, whom I would vote for the PR ballot and FPTP ballot respectively. Polls aren't looking too good however Im hoping against hope the SDP, A90-TG and DL can manage to somehow get a combined majority. But I know thats probably unrealistic. I expect a CDU-FDP coalition or a CDU-TG coalition to occur.

I'm thinking CDU-FDP myself if the numbers hold. Eight months is a long time, but unlike the Netherlands, there aren't any welfare scandals to rock the government.

not yet at least. But you never know what they're up to in Deutschland...

[Nazis in Space]

I can vote in the Berlin one.

And I will do so.

Probably greens, if they have good plans for getting more and better bicycle lanes in the city.

Don't think I haven't spotted your sinister plan to turn Germany into the Netherlands.

I would honestly be too afraid to ride a bicycle in my city, all the lanes are on the road next to cars with no kind of barrier separating them and every few months a cyclist gets hit by a car or bus.

It would be nice for there to be more bike lanes away from the roads. There are in the forests outside the city but that's mainly for recreation, not getting to somewhere.

The Greens here have talked about closing off the city center to cars entirely which I think would be good although very few people drive into those parts anyway.

Eh. I've been cycling to work across Aachen for the past five years, and I've only been hit by a car twice.

... wait.

[The Blaatschapen]

I can vote in the Berlin one.

And I will do so.

Probably greens, if they have good plans for getting more and better bicycle lanes in the city.

Don't think I haven't spotted your sinister plan to turn Germany into the Netherlands.

I would honestly be too afraid to ride a bicycle in my city, all the lanes are on the road next to cars with no kind of barrier separating them and every few months a cyclist gets hit by a car or bus.

It would be nice for there to be more bike lanes away from the roads. There are in the forests outside the city but that's mainly for recreation, not getting to somewhere.

The Greens here have talked about closing off the city center to cars entirely which I think would be good although very few people drive into those parts anyway.

Eh. I've been cycling to work across Aachen for the past five years, and I've only been hit by a car twice.

... wait.

It wasn't me.

I can't drive a car.

.... wait

[Nazis in Space]

Don't think I haven't spotted your sinister plan to turn Germany into the Netherlands.

Eh. I've been cycling to work across Aachen for the past five years, and I've only been hit by a car twice.

... wait.

It wasn't me.

I can't drive a car.

.... wait

I knew that already. You're Dutch, after all, and I live half an hour from the border.

The Dutch menace is a known factor >:(

[The Blaatschapen]

It wasn't me.

I can't drive a car.

.... wait

I knew that already. You're Dutch, after all, and I live half an hour from the border.

The Dutch menace is a known factor

Yeah, but unless it was a Wohnwagen, it wasn't the Dutch.

[Major-Tom]

Unless there is a rapid shift in public support, a rarity in Germany, I expect the CDU to win anyway. While Merkel's technocratic and inoffensive series of administrations haven't been bad, I'm sure a changing of the guard could be a plus. The SPD, if we're being honest, is indistinguishable on the federal level from the CDU thanks to a series of grand coalitions. Unless they rapidly change their focus, they can expect to keep hemorrhaging support.

I'd like to see the Greens improve, even if their relentless anti-nuclearism is absolutely asinine. Though I'd smile if I saw the Greens form a government with junior partners, that seems highly, highly unlikely on the federal level. In which case, a CDU-Green coalition would be just fine.

I'm glad the CDU ultimately chose Laschet as well, as opposed to Merz.

[Kowani]

German domestic intelligence service (BfV) to put entire far right AfD party under surveillance next week