German Politics I: Turn Left at the Traffic Light

[Shrillland]

A new Traffic Light Government is formed, a new Chancellor has been chosen, and a new era begins for Germany. Meanwhile, the CDU has to choose a new leader in the meantime, and it's a familiar contest so far. Norbert Röttgen's making his third attempt at the leadership, as is Former Chancellor Angela Merkel's predecessor, Friedrich Merz. The only new face for the leadership so far is Helge Braun, a CDU MP from Gießen, Hesse, who also served as Merkel's Chief of Staff and Special Affairs Minister. I think that the third time's the charm for Merz, as Röttgen usually ends up in third place, but it will be close as the centrists will cling to Braun in Round Two, not wanting to see the CDU go further right.

[Page]

In terms of ideology I mostly align with Die Linke, but if I actually could vote I might go with the Greens or SPD for strategic reasons. The Greens won the last municipal election here in Aachen by a lot which I think is kind of cool.

I just hope the AfD doesn't gain any more ground. Germany isn't nearly as vulnerable to the far-right taking power as other European countries but the amount of support they have is disturbingly high. I don't personally know anyone who supports them and I would not associate with an AfD supporter anyway. Those idiots have had a few anti-mask or anti-lockdown demonstrations in Aachen this year but only a few dozen people ever show up.

[Shrillland]

In terms of ideology I mostly align with Die Linke, but if I actually could vote I might go with the Greens or SPD for strategic reasons. The Greens won the last municipal election here in Aachen by a lot which I think is kind of cool.

I just hope the AfD doesn't gain any more ground. Germany isn't nearly as vulnerable to the far-right taking power as other European countries but the amount of support they have is disturbingly high. I don't personally know anyone who supports them and I would not associate with an AfD supporter anyway. Those idiots have had a few anti-mask or anti-lockdown demonstrations in Aachen this year but only a few dozen people ever show up.

Makes sense, you're in Aachen, not Leipzig.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Ideologically id lean towards the SPD, Die Linka and the Greens so im happy for any of those to make gains i guess. But i know the CDU/CSU tend to dominate elections.

[Nuroblav]

Die Linke seem to be closest to my views, specifically the Emancipatory Left faction (whose co-founder seems to be chairperson). Can't say I know enough about the party to have a solid opinion though, nor would I quite a fan of the other factions.

And yeah, AfD's high level of support is worrying.

[Shrillland]

Die Linke seem to be closest to my views, specifically the Emancipatory Left faction (whose co-founder seems to be chairperson). Can't say I know enough about the party to have a solid opinion though, nor would I quite a fan of the other factions.

And yeah, AfD's high level of support is worrying.

It's actually lower than its been in a while thanks to Covid, they're barely hanging on to 10%, and mostly in their eastern strongholds.

[Baltenstein]

The "thrill" of this election will consist largely of guesstimating which party (Greens, SPD, FDP) will get to become the CDU's junior partner. I honestly cannot think of a feasible sceario where the CDU doesn't auto-win.

That fact in itself doesn't speak too well of the vitality of Germany's multi-party system. OTOH, if the alternative is US-style partisan polarization, it's probably the lesser evil.

[Shrillland]

The "thrill" of this election will consist largely of guesstimating which party (Greens, SPD, FDP) will get to become the CDU's junior partner. I honestly cannot think of a feasible sceario where the CDU doesn't auto-win.

That fact in itself doesn't speak too well of the vitality of Germany's multi-party system. OTOH, if the alternative is US-style partisan polarization, it's probably the lesser evil.

Oh, the multi-party system's strong enough in Germany(there won't be a repeat of the LDP in Japan), it's just that Merkel has basically been Germany's hand for 20 years and is just universally popular around the world....that and governments that handle the pandemic well tend to be rewarded.

[Agarntrop]

In terms of ideology I mostly align with Die Linke, but if I actually could vote I might go with the Greens or SPD for strategic reasons. The Greens won the last municipal election here in Aachen by a lot which I think is kind of cool.

I just hope the AfD doesn't gain any more ground. Germany isn't nearly as vulnerable to the far-right taking power as other European countries but the amount of support they have is disturbingly high. I don't personally know anyone who supports them and I would not associate with an AfD supporter anyway. Those idiots have had a few anti-mask or anti-lockdown demonstrations in Aachen this year but only a few dozen people ever show up.

You live in Aachen? I've always assumed you were from the US

[Baltenstein]

In terms of ideology I mostly align with Die Linke, but if I actually could vote I might go with the Greens or SPD for strategic reasons. The Greens won the last municipal election here in Aachen by a lot which I think is kind of cool.

I just hope the AfD doesn't gain any more ground. Germany isn't nearly as vulnerable to the far-right taking power as other European countries but the amount of support they have is disturbingly high.

Frankly, it would be strange if Germany would somehow be the one magical excetion to the rule of the rise of anti-globalization/establishment populism. I'd say the only reason why the AFD's support isn't even higher (I'd put the overall level of their potential support at 25-30% or so of the German electorate) is the crucial of a charismatic larger-then-life caudillo type individual in the German political scene. The modern history of right-wing populism throughout Western countries has shown that it cannot succeed without such a figure.

[Shrillland]

In terms of ideology I mostly align with Die Linke, but if I actually could vote I might go with the Greens or SPD for strategic reasons. The Greens won the last municipal election here in Aachen by a lot which I think is kind of cool.

I just hope the AfD doesn't gain any more ground. Germany isn't nearly as vulnerable to the far-right taking power as other European countries but the amount of support they have is disturbingly high.

Frankly, it would be strange if Germany would somehow be the one magical excetion to the rule of the rise of anti-globalization/establishment populism. I'd say the only reason why the AFD's support isn't even higher (I'd put the overall level of their potential support at 25-30% or so of the German electorate) is the crucial of a charismatic larger-then-life caudillo type individual in the German political scene. The modern history of right-wing populism throughout Western countries has shown that it cannot succeed without such a figure.

That's mostly because, since the war, Germany tends to stamp them out considering how well it went last time for them.

[Baltenstein]

The "thrill" of this election will consist largely of guesstimating which party (Greens, SPD, FDP) will get to become the CDU's junior partner. I honestly cannot think of a feasible sceario where the CDU doesn't auto-win.

That fact in itself doesn't speak too well of the vitality of Germany's multi-party system. OTOH, if the alternative is US-style partisan polarization, it's probably the lesser evil.

Oh, the multi-party system's strong enough in Germany(there won't be a repeat of the LDP in Japan), it's just that Merkel has basically been Germany's hand for 20 years and is just universally popular around the world....that and governments that handle the pandemic well tend to be rewarded.

I do not consider a multi-party system where the (former) big centre-left party has become an after-thought joke that will be lucky to score 10% and the big centre-right party has devolved into an amorphous centrist mass that automatically wins all national elections of past, present and future "strong". A healthy political system thrives through competition and change.

[Bienenhalde]

What is the chance that Söder will be the CDU chancellor candidate instead of Laschet?

[Agarntrop]

In terms of ideology I mostly align with Die Linke, but if I actually could vote I might go with the Greens or SPD for strategic reasons. The Greens won the last municipal election here in Aachen by a lot which I think is kind of cool.

I just hope the AfD doesn't gain any more ground. Germany isn't nearly as vulnerable to the far-right taking power as other European countries but the amount of support they have is disturbingly high.

Frankly, it would be strange if Germany would somehow be the one magical excetion to the rule of the rise of anti-globalization/establishment populism. I'd say the only reason why the AFD's support isn't even higher (I'd put the overall level of their potential support at 25-30% or so of the German electorate) is the crucial of a charismatic larger-then-life caudillo type individual in the German political scene. The modern history of right-wing populism throughout Western countries has shown that it cannot succeed without such a figure.

Have you forgotten the existence of a certain Adolf H?

[Baltenstein]

Frankly, it would be strange if Germany would somehow be the one magical excetion to the rule of the rise of anti-globalization/establishment populism. I'd say the only reason why the AFD's support isn't even higher (I'd put the overall level of their potential support at 25-30% or so of the German electorate) is the crucial of a charismatic larger-then-life caudillo type individual in the German political scene. The modern history of right-wing populism throughout Western countries has shown that it cannot succeed without such a figure.

That's mostly because, since the war, Germany tends to stamp them out considering how well it went last time for them.

You think so.

I'd say it's simply that such an individual does not currently exist, not that the German political system and society are somehow better set-up or more enlightened than other countries in that regard.

[Baltenstein]

Frankly, it would be strange if Germany would somehow be the one magical excetion to the rule of the rise of anti-globalization/establishment populism. I'd say the only reason why the AFD's support isn't even higher (I'd put the overall level of their potential support at 25-30% or so of the German electorate) is the crucial of a charismatic larger-then-life caudillo type individual in the German political scene. The modern history of right-wing populism throughout Western countries has shown that it cannot succeed without such a figure.

Have you forgotten the existence of a certain Adolf H?

Your point being what, exactly?

[Shrillland]

What is the chance that Söder will be the CDU chancellor candidate instead of Laschet?

Not much of one, CSU prefers to stay in Bavaria since regional interests are a core tenet of their platform.

[Agarntrop]

Have you forgotten the existence of a certain Adolf H?

Your point being what, exactly?

Germans are deterred from the alt right by their recent and tragic history with it

[Shrillland]

That's mostly because, since the war, Germany tends to stamp them out considering how well it went last time for them.

You think so.

I'd say it's simply that such an individual does not currently exist, not that the German political system and society are somehow better set-up or more enlightened than other countries in that regard.

That shows that he was more or less stamped out and ignored by the populace in Hamburg. Granted, if it was Brandenburg or Saxony, he might have gotten more support, but even then the federal parties would isolate him like they've been doing with AfD.

[Shrillland]

Oh, the multi-party system's strong enough in Germany(there won't be a repeat of the LDP in Japan), it's just that Merkel has basically been Germany's hand for 20 years and is just universally popular around the world....that and governments that handle the pandemic well tend to be rewarded.

I do not consider a multi-party system where the (former) big centre-left party has become an after-thought joke that will be lucky to score 10% and the big centre-right party has devolved into an amorphous centrist mass that automatically wins all national elections of past, present and future "strong". A healthy political system thrives through competition and change.

As for the SDP's collapse, that's just because the left is changing and heading towards eco-social democracy instead of classic social democracy, as the Green surge pre-Covid shows.

[Baltenstein]

Your point being what, exactly?

Germans are deterred from the alt right by their recent and tragic history with it

Except in my earlier post I gave you an exampe of a German right-wing politician who scored a surprise success in the very first elections he participated in.

That shows that he was more or less stamped out and ignored by the populace in Hamburg.

Except he wasn't. He catapulted himself to victory and into government on his very first try. He then fell from a grace because he produced almost nothing but scandals and self-destruction during his years in offce. Before that however, voters did him put in office though.

[Baltenstein]

I do not consider a multi-party system where the (former) big centre-left party has become an after-thought joke that will be lucky to score 10% and the big centre-right party has devolved into an amorphous centrist mass that automatically wins all national elections of past, present and future "strong". A healthy political system thrives through competition and change.

As for the SDP's collapse, that's just because the left is changing and heading towards eco-social democracy instead of classic social democracy, as the Green surge pre-Covid shows.

There is a clear electorate upper-limit to the "academic liberalism" platform of the Greens, and it's not enough for aiming at the chancellery (that would require more than 30% of the vote).

The SPD is collapsing for the same reasons social democracy is collapsing in most Western countries, the inability to reconcile US-style liberalism with their traditional blue-collar voter base.

[Crylante]

I think AfD will probably, looking at polling, lose seats from 2017.

I also expect the two parties will probably pick Soeder over Laschet and I think a CDU/CSU-Gruene coalition is fairly likely.

Would probably vote Gruene with the preference of the left of the party, and my predictions may prove wrong as I am after all English, not German, aber ich spreche ein bisschen Deutsch.

[Page]

In terms of ideology I mostly align with Die Linke, but if I actually could vote I might go with the Greens or SPD for strategic reasons. The Greens won the last municipal election here in Aachen by a lot which I think is kind of cool.

I just hope the AfD doesn't gain any more ground. Germany isn't nearly as vulnerable to the far-right taking power as other European countries but the amount of support they have is disturbingly high. I don't personally know anyone who supports them and I would not associate with an AfD supporter anyway. Those idiots have had a few anti-mask or anti-lockdown demonstrations in Aachen this year but only a few dozen people ever show up.

You live in Aachen? I've always assumed you were from the US

I'm an American. I married a German woman in 2016 and have lived here since.

[Agarntrop]

You live in Aachen? I've always assumed you were from the US

I'm an American. I married a German woman in 2016 and have lived here since.

Ah. I have been to Aachen.