Possible Revolution in Belarus after Rigged election

[San Lumen]

https://www.axios.com/belarus-protests- ... 393a6.html

A possible revolution is underway in Belarus after incumbent Alexander Lukashenko blatantly falsified results in his bid for sixth term. He has ruled the country with an iron fist since 1994. The main opposition candidate says she has proof she won in a landslide.

Huge crowds are making their way through the capital of Minsk and other cities and their are clashes with police.

I really hope this leads to his ouster and Europe’s last dictator finally falls.

Your thoughts NSG?

[Borderlands of Rojava]

2020 is the year mankind collectively said "hell ain't a bad place to be." Every week there's more chaos, and we got this only a few days after the Beirut superblast.

[Major-Tom]

Possible revolution? Probably not. Probable indicator that Lukashenko is deeply unpopular and probably doesn't have much time left politically? Sure, definitely.

State-sanctioned polls in Belarus show him, for instance, with sky-high approval ratings. But the reality is closer to a measly 24%.. Belarus is complex, it's quite economically nationalist, quite closed off, and very culturally conservative. But there remains that demand for democracy, whether it's from a 70 year old conservative grandmother or a more Western-oriented millennial in Minsk.

[Drongonia]

Damn, sucks for Lukashenko. It'll be interesting to see whether this is a genuine "by-the-people" movement or just another Western media scam.

[Reutoa]

I for one Welcome the end of the World, it's been clear for centuries that human's cannot be trusted to do good with the Power they hold.

[San Lumen]

Possible revolution? Probably not. Probable indicator that Lukashenko is deeply unpopular and probably doesn't have much time left politically? Sure, definitely.

State-sanctioned polls in Belarus show him, for instance, with sky-high approval ratings. But the reality is closer to a measly 24%.. Belarus is complex, it's quite economically nationalist, quite closed off, and very culturally conservative. But there remains that demand for democracy, whether it's from a 70 year old conservative grandmother or a more Western-oriented millennial in Minsk.

We shall see. The main opposition candidate says she has proof she won and is encouraging her supporters to protest

I hope to see the streets crowded with people and video of his palace being attacked

[Tinhampton]

Is this going to end up with the same result as 2017's "Possible Coup in Venezuela"?

[Punished UMN]

If the results are what the opposition were claiming, there wouldn't be enough Lukashenko supporters to suppress the opposition. Lukashenko will still be in power a year from now, provided this doesn't succeed within a month.

[The New California Republic]

The state TV exit poll showed that Mr Lukashenko won nearly 80% of the vote.

Lol come on guys, at least give yourselves 99.9% of the vote, really push the boat out.

But seriously, 80% of the vote, with just 7% going to the main opposition candidate in a modern democracy just isn't possible. There has been some ballot box stuffing going on somewhere.

[Major-Tom]

Damn, sucks for Lukashenko. It'll be interesting to see whether this is a genuine "by-the-people" movement or just another Western media scam.

What a strange thing to say.

[Borderlands of Rojava]

Damn, sucks for Lukashenko. It'll be interesting to see whether this is a genuine "by-the-people" movement or just another Western media scam.

What a strange thing to say.

You know the CIA is into creating fake coups.

[Punished UMN]

The state TV exit poll showed that Mr Lukashenko won nearly 80% of the vote.

Lol come on guys, at least give yourselves 99.9% of the vote, really push the boat out.

But seriously, 80% of the vote, with just 7% going to the main opposition candidate in a modern democracy just isn't possible. There has been some ballot box stuffing going on somewhere.

Luckily for Lukashenko, Belarus isn't a modern democracy.

[San Lumen]

The state TV exit poll showed that Mr Lukashenko won nearly 80% of the vote.

Lol come on guys, at least give yourselves 99.9% of the vote, really push the boat out.

But seriously, 80% of the vote, with just 7% going to the main opposition candidate in a modern democracy just isn't possible. There has been some ballot box stuffing going on somewhere.

Of course there was ballot stuffing. He knew he would never win a free and fair election

[Punished UMN]

The state TV exit poll showed that Mr Lukashenko won nearly 80% of the vote.

Lol come on guys, at least give yourselves 99.9% of the vote, really push the boat out.

But seriously, 80% of the vote, with just 7% going to the main opposition candidate in a modern democracy just isn't possible. There has been some ballot box stuffing going on somewhere.

Of course there was ballot stuffing. He knew he would never win a free and fair election

Just because ballots were stuffed doesn't mean he lost. Most dictatorships stuff ballots, but most of them would probably still win elections without it.

[Major-Tom]

What a strange thing to say.

You know America is into creating fake coups.

I'm sure we have a vested interest in couping Belarus, even though the Belarussians are perfectly capable of doing so themselves.

It's more than possible to recognize that America interferes in foreign elections while simultaneously recognizing we just don't do it in every single one. That's an example of finding a relatively true narrative but then falsely applying it to even dissimilar situations.

[The New California Republic]

The state TV exit poll showed that Mr Lukashenko won nearly 80% of the vote.

Lol come on guys, at least give yourselves 99.9% of the vote, really push the boat out.

But seriously, 80% of the vote, with just 7% going to the main opposition candidate in a modern democracy just isn't possible. There has been some ballot box stuffing going on somewhere.

Luckily for Lukashenko, Belarus isn't a modern democracy.

Yes that's my point.

[San Lumen]

Of course there was ballot stuffing. He knew he would never win a free and fair election

Just because ballots were stuffed doesn't mean he lost. Most dictatorships stuff ballots, but most of them would probably still win elections without it.

You have proof of that? Independent opinion polls showed him losing in a landslide and single digit approval ratings

[Heloin]

The election was rigged, that's obvious to anyone who knows anything about Belarus. The massive protests are a sign for Lukashenko that his days are numbered. Is it a revolution? I don't think so, at least not yet, the night it young.

[Punished UMN]

Just because ballots were stuffed doesn't mean he lost. Most dictatorships stuff ballots, but most of them would probably still win elections without it.

You have proof of that? Independent opinion polls showed him losing in a landslide and single digit approval ratings

I don't know about this particular instance, I'm speaking in generalities, but also independent opinion polls must be caveated. There's no reliable polling in Belarus so it's impossible to know if it's an actual majority opposition or just a large opposition like China had in 1989.

[San Lumen]

The election was rigged, that's obvious to anyone who knows anything about Belarus. The massive protests are a sign for Lukashenko that his days are numbered. Is it a revolution? I don't think so, at least not yet, the night it young.

We shall see. I hope the people start attacking the security forces and their equipment and throw stuff at his palace

[Thermodolia]

https://www.axios.com/belarus-protests-election-933b5fa4-c2fa-4132-b10d-568e542393a6.html

A possible revolution is underway in Belarus after incumbent Alexander Lukashenko blatantly falsified results in his bid for sixth term. He has ruled the country with an iron fist since 1994. The main opposition candidate says she has proof she won in a landslide.

Huge crowds are making their way through the capital of Minsk and other cities and their are clashes with police.

I really hope this leads to his ouster and Europe’s last dictator finally falls.

Your thoughts NSG?

I await the arrival of Russian green men on “vacation”

[Major-Tom]

You have proof of that? Independent opinion polls showed him losing in a landslide and single digit approval ratings

I don't know about this particular instance, I'm speaking in generalities, but also independent opinion polls must be caveated. There's no reliable polling in Belarus so it's impossible to know if it's an actual majority opposition or just a large opposition like China had in 1989.

I linked non state-sanctioned polling and I’ll have to go back and retrieve a second source, but I think an additional poll had him around 30%, a little higher than the 24% I linked.

I don’t doubt that Lukashenko was once fiercely popular. He definitely was, after all Belarus weathered the 1990s crisis very well compared to neighbors, has a solid safety net etc etc. But familiarity breeds contempt, and when you’re the head of state for 26 years and only maintain it with a massive security apparatus and human rights abuses, soon even the most loyal of supporters will turn on you and demand change.

[Punished UMN]

I don't know about this particular instance, I'm speaking in generalities, but also independent opinion polls must be caveated. There's no reliable polling in Belarus so it's impossible to know if it's an actual majority opposition or just a large opposition like China had in 1989.

I linked non state-sanctioned polling and I’ll have to go back and retrieve a second source, but I think an additional poll had him around 30%, a little higher than the 24% I linked.

I don’t doubt that Lukashenko was once fiercely popular. He definitely was, after all Belarus weathered the 1990s crisis very well compared to neighbors, has a solid safety net etc etc. But familiarity breeds contempt, and when you’re the head of state for 26 years and only maintain it with a massive security apparatus and human rights abuses, soon even the most loyal of supporters will turn on you and demand change.

Opinion polling is illegal in Belarus, and internet censorship is massive. There's just not enough sample size for a reliable poll. I can't know of course. Give it a month. If he's gone in a month, that's that, if he's still there in a month, he'll either win or it will be very bloody.

[Novus America]

Of course there was ballot stuffing. He knew he would never win a free and fair election

Just because ballots were stuffed doesn't mean he lost. Most dictatorships stuff ballots, but most of them would probably still win elections without it.

But because of the ballot stuffing we have little evidence he won.
This is a dubious claim, some might win without it, but many probably would not, and “I cheated but I could win without cheating” is a pretty weak argument.

Also several dictatorships have collapsed when they fail to stuff the ballot enough, confident that they will win, only to find out that naturally many people PRETEND to support a dictatorship out of fear, despite not actually do it.

That the fake shows of support do not prove real support.

Although I agree it is difficult to know given our lack of good information from the very repressive government.

[Thermodolia]

I don't know about this particular instance, I'm speaking in generalities, but also independent opinion polls must be caveated. There's no reliable polling in Belarus so it's impossible to know if it's an actual majority opposition or just a large opposition like China had in 1989.

I linked non state-sanctioned polling and I’ll have to go back and retrieve a second source, but I think an additional poll had him around 30%, a little higher than the 24% I linked.

I don’t doubt that Lukashenko was once fiercely popular. He definitely was, after all Belarus weathered the 1990s crisis very well compared to neighbors, has a solid safety net etc etc. But familiarity breeds contempt, and when you’re the head of state for 26 years and only maintain it with a massive security apparatus and human rights abuses, soon even the most loyal of supporters will turn on you and demand change.

Yes but did one of his opponents have more than 30% or where they all sub 30%