2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

[Outer Sparta]

That is sad

It is. I could be less hyperbolic, perhaps, obviously not every Republican in the PHX metro hates Mexicans, but having spent 12+ years in the most ruby red parts of the PHX area (and still having my whole fam there), it's probably more true that most Republicans there over the age of, say, 40, is more racist than anybody I've ever encountered in Mississippi or Alabama.

Must be the heat, man.

Isn't Scottsdale, Surprise, and a few other areas pretty Republican while Phoenix and Tempe are more Democratic?

[Shrillland]

It is. I could be less hyperbolic, perhaps, obviously not every Republican in the PHX metro hates Mexicans, but having spent 12+ years in the most ruby red parts of the PHX area (and still having my whole fam there), it's probably more true that most Republicans there over the age of, say, 40, is more racist than anybody I've ever encountered in Mississippi or Alabama.

Must be the heat, man.

Isn't Scottsdale, Surprise, and a few other areas pretty Republican while Phoenix and Tempe are more Democratic?

That's relatively new. It used to be all Maricopa County was quite Republican.

[Major-Tom]

It is. I could be less hyperbolic, perhaps, obviously not every Republican in the PHX metro hates Mexicans, but having spent 12+ years in the most ruby red parts of the PHX area (and still having my whole fam there), it's probably more true that most Republicans there over the age of, say, 40, is more racist than anybody I've ever encountered in Mississippi or Alabama.

Must be the heat, man.

Isn't Scottsdale, Surprise, and a few other areas pretty Republican while Phoenix and Tempe are more Democratic?

The suburbs have always been deep red Republican, I mean deep red, but in some of the suburbs, millennial influxes are ever so slowly turning them purple. The urban core between PHX and Tempe is pretty Dem leaning overall, but definitely more moderate in terms of overall outlook (progressivism is really just a fad for the under 25s in the metro).

Isn't Scottsdale, Surprise, and a few other areas pretty Republican while Phoenix and Tempe are more Democratic?

That's relatively new. It used to be all Maricopa County was quite Republican.

This too. A lot of the independents here started voting blue in 2016 and then again in 2018. We're seeing a massive shift statewide in more young people registering Democratic, and even with some independents as well. I suspect Maricopa will swing to a light shade of blue come November, but the Republican base here will always be as far-right, Goldwaterite as they come (well, until they die off, really).

[Outer Sparta]

Isn't Scottsdale, Surprise, and a few other areas pretty Republican while Phoenix and Tempe are more Democratic?

That's relatively new. It used to be all Maricopa County was quite Republican.

Of course today cities are getting bluer and bluer. Even traditionally red metro areas like Fort Worth have shifted in recent times.

[Corrian]

Wow, even if the guy was a pretty good congressman (So I hear, I knew little about him), seeing a 52-year family dynasty fall is always good in my books. A fresh face is good.

[Aureumterra]

We aren’t auth right. Not everyone who opposes anarchism is auth right

I'm accusing Solvokina of being authright in denial, you're just a liberal.

Thermodalia

Liberal

two words that can’t fit in a sentence under any metaphysical circumstances

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Just another reminder that the Greens are so self-righteous that their policy positions are completely out of touch with the reality of the modern world and the United States.

Howie has brought the party a fair bit to the left this cycle, and has attempted to create a "unified front" among all leftist parties (for example he obtained the presidential nomination of the Socialist Party before the nomination season for the Greens was even over), but they really need to revise their nuclear policy. It's unreasonable and anti-science.

As long as there are still reactors in the US, shutting them down will be issue #1 for some Boomers. The Greens are the only party they have to turn to.

You know what would be smart? Start an Anti-Nuclear Party. Throw in some other anti-science stuff (like banning GMO's) so the anti-science nuts can be drained off and the Greens will have no further reason to pander to them.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Isn't Scottsdale, Surprise, and a few other areas pretty Republican while Phoenix and Tempe are more Democratic?

That's relatively new. It used to be all Maricopa County was quite Republican.

2018 elections they seem to have elected a minority of Democrats, but a fair sized minority.

2016 Federal election they voted 48 Trump 45 Clinton.

Maybe they used to be deep red but Sheriff Joe single-handedly turned them purple?

[Outer Sparta]

That's relatively new. It used to be all Maricopa County was quite Republican.

2018 elections they seem to have elected a minority of Democrats, but a fair sized minority.

2016 Federal election they voted 48 Trump 45 Clinton.

Maybe they used to be deep red but Sheriff Joe single-handedly turned them purple?

Kelli Ward will probably blame the recent purple shift of Arizona on chemtrails.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

2018 elections they seem to have elected a minority of Democrats, but a fair sized minority.

2016 Federal election they voted 48 Trump 45 Clinton.

Maybe they used to be deep red but Sheriff Joe single-handedly turned them purple?

Kelli Ward will probably blame the recent purple shift of Arizona on chemtrails.

Big problem in Arizona I'm sure. Being a fly-over state ...

[Outer Sparta]

That's relatively new. It used to be all Maricopa County was quite Republican.

2018 elections they seem to have elected a minority of Democrats, but a fair sized minority.

2016 Federal election they voted 48 Trump 45 Clinton.

Maybe they used to be deep red but Sheriff Joe single-handedly turned them purple?

Currently Mark Kelly is trouncing McSally in the polls and has a huge fundraising lead. If Kelly keeps this up, this will really become a hammering that's for sure, especially to McSally who was merely appointed and not elected to her seat and basically is a rubber stamp for Trump.

[South Odreria 2]

Apparently joe Kennedy was my dads landlord, and after getting elected to Congress observed that the committees are pretty important actually.

[Shrillland]

It may be getting late, but numbers are still trickling in, and there are more calls:

Dem MI-6(Kalamazoo): Jen Richardson

Richardson's a teacher and is actually expected to trounce Upton, albeit in a party-sponsored poll by Gravis.

As for Michigan's other races, a couple more might get called in the next hour or two, but Tlaib's primary is looking like it'll be determined in the next few days. Arizona and Washington still have time left for us to wait on.

[Major-Tom]

2018 elections they seem to have elected a minority of Democrats, but a fair sized minority.

2016 Federal election they voted 48 Trump 45 Clinton.

Maybe they used to be deep red but Sheriff Joe single-handedly turned them purple?

Kelli Ward will probably blame the recent purple shift of Arizona on chemtrails.

You'd be surprised to know she's dumber than you think.

[Shrillland]

And another:

Dem AZ-1(Flagstaff and the Nations): Tom O'Halleran
Dem MI-10(Port Huron-Macomb Township): Kimberly Bizon

[Shrillland]

Most of our remaining races we won't be able to call until sometime tomorrow, so now's as good a time as any to give you my take on later this week...and next week too, I suppose. Starting on Thursday.

Tennessee: We start with the Senate race as Incumbent Republican and former Governor and overall giant Lamar Alexander is retiring this year. The Republican race to succeed him is a two-horse race at this point with Trump, the state and national parties, the Susan B. Anthony List, and a small lead in the polls behind former Ambassador to Japan and Former Director of the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development Bill Hagerty. Right next to him in the polls is Manny Sethi, an orthopaedic surgeon who's also founder and president of Healthy Tennessee and a director at the Vanderbilt Orthopaedic Institute Centre for Health Policy. He has the more libertarian wing of the party behind him including Rand Paul, Jim Demint, Ted Cruz, Alan Keyes, Former Governor WInfield Dunn, Kane Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs, the GOA, and Mark Levin among others. It's fairly close, but I think Hagerty will win and beat James Mackler in November.

On to the House and Kingsport-Smoky Mountains(1st). Incumbent Republican Phil Roe is retiring and there are several Republicans vying. In the lead right now is pharmacist Diana Harshbarger, who labels herself a Trump Conservative. Although she leads in the only poll from June and in the fundraising field, her only endorsement known is from VIEW(Value in Electing Women). In second is State Sen. Rusty Crowe. He has a good chunk of the state party behind him and his congressional neighbour Tim Burchett in the Knoxville district. In third is State Rep. Timothy Hill, who has more conservative and libertarian types on his side including Rick Santorum, the House Freedom Fund, Club For Growth, and Jim Jordan. I think that despite coming in second, his state backing will be enough to push Crowe ahead and beat Blair Walsingham in November.

Over to Nashville(5th). We saw one Progressive upset this week, and we may see another here. Although Incumbent Democrat Jim Cooper is fairly popular and has the unions, Planned Parenthood, and the Sierra Club behind him, his Progressive challenger, Davidson County Public Defender and former prisoner herself Keeda Haynes could unseat him. She was in prison for three years on a charge of aiding and abetting marijuana distribution, a charge that she still denies. She has Democracy for America, Our Revolution, and Blue America behind her. After some of the upsets we've seen, I'm not as comfortable saying Cooper will win as I should be, so I'll steer clear of making any pronuncements. No Republicans are running here and only one Independent, so who wins on Thursday will go to Congress.

On to Saturday.

Hawaii: Just one House race of interest for Hawaiian Islands(2nd). Incumbent Democrat Tulsi Gabbard is retiring, and there are two fairly interesting candidates on the Democratic side. Most people are behind State Sen. Kai Kahele, and I mean most people from the unions to the state and national parties to the many assorted minority caucuses in congress, Daily Kos, Planned Parenthood, and so on. Even so, Gabbard's political style has plenty of supporters, and they're rallying behind activist and life insurance agent Noelle Famera. She has Students for Tulsi Gabbard and Humanity Forward behind her. Even so, Kahele's the odds-on favourite for Saturday and against whomever the Republicans choose in November.

On to Sunday.

Puerto Rico: Normally, I wouldn't mention Puerto Rico save in passing, but with the statehood vote in November, their gubernatorial race is of interest. Fortunately, nothing's really changed since I made this analysis before, so I can just paste the old view, with a few changes: On the New Progressive side, Incumbent Governor Wanda Vazquez has a battle against former Resident Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi. Vazquez, along with most of the pro-statehood PNP, is allied with the Republicans while Pierluisi is affiliated with the Democrats. Most people on the island see this proposal as a political ploy to save Vazquez, but she does still poll better than Pierluisi against their opponents. The only El Nuevo Dia poll back in February(so take it with a grain of salt) showed a tie between the two. I think that Vazquez will be the winner here.

On the Popular Democratic side, a lot of people know San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulin Cruz is running, but her plan to tilt the pro-commonwealth, Democratic-affiliated PPD in favour of associated free independent state status, similar to what Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands have, is a big unknown. The same El Nuevo Dia poll showed a big lead for her more conventional opponent, Territorial Senate Minority Leader Eduardo Bhatia. Bhatia will win on Sunday, and regardless of whether the PNP choose Vazques or Pierluisi, it'll be a PNP victory in November.

Now, on to next week.

Connecticut: Actually, Ballotpedia says there's nothing of interest there next week. Only two House races even have primaries...moving on.

Georgia Take Two: Four House runoffs and two considered of interest, so let's start with the Republican runoff in Athens-Dahlonega(9th). State Rep. Matt Gurtler and gun shop owner Andrew Clyde moved on to the runoff, and Gurtler seems to have more support from libertarian and conservative organisations. I think Gurtler will win next week.

Over to the Republican runoff in Rome(14th). This is a hotter race. QAnon disciple Marjorie Taylor Greene was the favourite in the primary and even got Trump to back her....until QAnon-related videos of her were released where she espoused Islamophobic, anti-Semitic, and white supremacist views. The national party at that point, and even Trump himself, backed off of supporting her and are backing neurologist John Cowan instead. Greene still has some support from the GOA and the House Freedom Caucus, but mant voters have been turned off Still, some polls show this fairly close, and I think Cowan will have a harder time than some expect. He'll win, but it'll be a close race.

Minnesota: No Senate action next week, Incumbent Democrat Tina Smith and Former Republican Congressman Jason Lewis will easily win their primaries, and I think Smith will win in November.

In the House, the first district is...the 1st, Rochester-Mankato. Nothing next week, but Incumbent Republican Bill Hagedorn faces a rough rematch against his '18 Democratic rival Dan Feehan. Right now, Hagedorn's still expected to win, but it will be close, and Feehan can take it if the national tide continues to flow in the Democrats' favour.

On to Hastings-Red Wing(2nd). Again, quiet next week, but Former Marine and Republican Tyler Kistner is fighting to unseat freshman Democratic Congresswoman Angie Craig. Right now, internal party polls show Kistner isn't doing well, and I don't see any reason to believe that his showing will improve. Craig will be re-elected.

Next stop, Minneapolis(5th). The first actual primary of interest here, as this is Squad member Ilhan Omar's seat. Although Omar does have the party, the unions, the Working Families Party, the SIerra Club, Justice Democrats, Democracy for America and many others behind her, her criticism of Israel, which some have said borders on outright anti-Semitism, rubs some the wrong way, including her biggest competitor, Lawyer Antone Melton-Meaux. He has some support, but not too many major figures. Internal Omar Campaign polls show her ahead by nearly 40 points, and although I take little stock in such internal polls, I believe the general idea that Omar will win next week and in November against Lacy Johnson is accurate enough.

Over to Moorhead-Wilmar(7th). Quiet next week, Republican Former Senate President and Former Lieutenant Governor Michelle Fischbach will easily win her primary, but I don't think she'll beat Incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson in November given the national tide.

Vermont: Incumbent Republican Phil Scott is running for Governor again, but he hasn't campaigned or raised any funds considering it inappropriate during the current pandemic. He'll easily win his primary, however. On the Democratic side, two major names stand out. First is Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman, who has the support of Bernie Sanders, Ben & Jerry, and a good chunk of state party leadership. Other elements in the party are backing Former State Education Secretary Rebecca Holcombe as is EMILY's List. Even so, I think Zuckerman will win here and lose to Scott in November.

Wisconsin: All the action here is for the House, so let's head off to Waukesha-Watertown(5th). Incumbent Republican Jim Sensenbrenner is retiring, and he along with Former Governor Scott Walker have endorsed State Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald to take his place. His only challenger is a commander in the Coast Guard Reserve, Cliff DeTemple, and I think that Fitzgerald will easily win here and against Tom Palzewicz in November.

Over to Wausau-Superior(7th). No action next week, but Incumbent Republican Tom Tiffany and his Democratic rival, Wausau School Board Member and Associate Justice of the Ho-Chunk Nation Supreme Court Tricia Zucker are going into a rematch of May's byelection...a rematch that will likely end the same way with Tiffany handily winning.

[Jedi Council]

Biden has already released an attack ad on social media which is essentially just running the "It is what it is" segment from the Axios interview over black and white photos of the elderly, hospitals and other sad images.

Whoever in Trumps circle who thought this interview was a good idea is an idiot.

[Cannot think of a name]

Biden has already released an attack ad on social media which is essentially just running the "It is what it is" segment from the Axios interview over black and white photos of the elderly, hospitals and other sad images.

Whoever in Trumps circle who thought this interview was a good idea is an idiot.

He is so frantic in these interviews, the Wallace one and this one, that I think he's running ahead of his advisors. I can see how he thinks he's coming out a winner on these things because he's fighting the reporter and that's what his fans like (which isn't entirely untrue).

[Thermodolia]

We aren’t auth right. Not everyone who opposes anarchism is auth right

I'm accusing Solvokina of being authright in denial, you're just a liberal.

Hahahahaha hahahahaha. No I’m not

[Thermodolia]

Therm is a tito stan IIRC. That doesn't prevent liberalism from being a influence but there's a distinction there.

Revisionism isn't much better imo but that is good to know. Thermodolia needs to read Marx, he was pretty clear that communism is stateless.

I never said that it wasn’t stateless, I said that it would never happen.

[Borderlands of Rojava]

That is sad

It is. I could be less hyperbolic, perhaps, obviously not every Republican in the PHX metro hates Mexicans, but having spent 12+ years in the most ruby red parts of the PHX area (and still having my whole fam there), it's probably more true that most Republicans there over the age of, say, 40, is more racist than anybody I've ever encountered in Mississippi or Alabama.

Must be the heat, man.

My town is like some shit out of Mississippi burning. Alot of pretty racist people here and we got diversity of racists. We got the redneck gang that'll beat you to a pulp if you're black and you enter their neighborhood and then five miles away are the upper middle class white folks who say things like "well I'm not racist but..."

It's the physical embodiment of adding insult to injury. And it may be as bad as the backwoods of Alabama.

[Zurkerx]

Then Republicans should be able to win the seat in Kansas. That is music to their ears. To Democrats, eh, not so much.

That reminds me, we've done a lot of Presidental predictions using 270towin, but what about potential Senate/House seats?

I can definitely include a Senate Prediction Map when I do my Presidential Prediction one. As for the House, that's too complex but I can easily tell you that I see Democrats keeping their majority, and growing it slightly.

[Zurkerx]

Also, Biden confidants see Biden's VP choices narrowing down to Harris and Rice. In third place is Bass, who has been steadily falling since her floundering performances. It should be noted that only Biden truly knows what he wants (and who he'll pick) but it seems we should keep an eye on Harris and Rice:

In Harris' case, she has the prosecutor skills to be an attack dog, and a disciplined one at that for dismantling the Trump Administration's arguments easily. She would also be racially diverse. However, we also have seen her in the debates and while she can debate, her ability to answer questions fully and directly can be lacking. But the bigger problem is her record as an Attorney, of which, you can read more here- that's if people even want to...

In Rice's case, she offers the necessary foreign policy experience Biden is looking for, and she has one thing above all: a close working relationship with him. She's also an African American. However, she lacks any elective office experience, making the learning curve harder for her and we have no clue where she stands on domestic issues fully. But the bigger problem is her ties to the Benghazi incident, and Republicans plan on taking full advantage of that, labeling her as the perfect "Deep State Villain".

While I still prefer Rice, Harris might be the safer option between the two of them. But I'm holding out hope that he picks someone else, someone much more qualified for the position. All I know is that Warren will likely not be the choice.

[Dresderstan]

That reminds me, we've done a lot of Presidental predictions using 270towin, but what about potential Senate/House seats?

I can definitely include a Senate Prediction Map when I do my Presidential Prediction one. As for the House, that's too complex but I can easily tell you that I see Democrats keeping their majority, and growing it slightly.

I actually posted a Senate Predictions map a few pages ago, but it got ignored, and I think most would agree with me on it tho.

[Thermodolia]

I can definitely include a Senate Prediction Map when I do my Presidential Prediction one. As for the House, that's too complex but I can easily tell you that I see Democrats keeping their majority, and growing it slightly.

I actually posted a Senate Predictions map a few pages ago, but it got ignored, and I think most would agree with me on it tho.

Georgia regular is more tilt republican than lean