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by Drongonia » Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:47 pm
The Republic of Drongonia
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by Costa Fierro » Wed Jul 15, 2020 7:55 pm
Radiatia wrote:Cetacea wrote:
You need to realise that by US standards there are no right wing parties in New Zealand, US style conservatism is considered extremist by NZ standards (or any other reasonable nation)
NZ First is a traditionalist, centrist party. Even Act would be at best center-right
Actually yeah this.
National = Hillary Clinton Democrats
Labour = Bernie Sanders Democrats
The closest to the Republicans would be ACT or NC but ACT are socially liberal and NC are economically quite centrist.
by Drongonia » Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:13 pm
Costa Fierro wrote:Edit: forgotten to mention that Nikki Kaye and Amy Adams have both quit politics as of this morning, although Adams was due to retire anyway (she said so way before Bridges was rolled). Kaye would definitely be a big loss for National as she was the symbol of the more moderate wing of the party, which is usually what kept a number of the swing voters hanging around.
I can easily see Collins taking National to a more hard right (further right than centre-right) if the rest of National's more moderate wing either leave or defect and form a new party, there's no way now most swing voters would want to see Collins as Prime Minister.
The Republic of Drongonia
The MT powerhouse of Oceania. New Zealand but richer.
Overview | Political Parties | Our Leader | Defence Force Info | 9axes | Faces of Drongonia | Drongonia - The Man Behind the Spreadsheet
by Costa Fierro » Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:27 pm
Drongonia wrote:Costa Fierro wrote:Edit: forgotten to mention that Nikki Kaye and Amy Adams have both quit politics as of this morning, although Adams was due to retire anyway (she said so way before Bridges was rolled). Kaye would definitely be a big loss for National as she was the symbol of the more moderate wing of the party, which is usually what kept a number of the swing voters hanging around.
I can easily see Collins taking National to a more hard right (further right than centre-right) if the rest of National's more moderate wing either leave or defect and form a new party, there's no way now most swing voters would want to see Collins as Prime Minister.
I actually see this as a good thing. National are not a viable opposition against Labour right now as they don't really differ on much besides economic issues. Socially, they aren't seeking to repeal any of the changes Labour enacted. Hell, they are barely talking about changing Labour's economic policies either. The only real difference is that National want to overturn the ban on oil exploration (which, of course they do). Apart from that, they don't have much in the way of policy apart from "we're better economic managers than Labour."
My point being that maybe Collins and a more hard-right National Party will actually present something different to the neoliberalism presented by both major parties. Maybe. Does New Zealand have the appetite for such a party is another question though, probably not.
by New Rogernomics » Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:31 pm
I always find that tit-for-tit kinda amusing in New Zealand, as in the last few decades both parties have taken advantage of economic circumstances that neither party were really responsible for. As far as the facts are concerned, there are few noticeable differences, and ironically while National was attacking Labour for raking up debt and being 'tax and spend', the debt pay back ratio while Labour were in government was actually partly higher than National had while in government. Though the rivalry among the big two parties will never let them admit that they aren't all that different save on welfare and social policy.Drongonia wrote:[...]Apart from that, they don't have much in the way of policy apart from "we're better economic managers than Labour.".[...]
by Radiatia » Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:04 am
Costa Fierro wrote:Radiatia wrote:
Actually yeah this.
National = Hillary Clinton Democrats
Labour = Bernie Sanders Democrats
The closest to the Republicans would be ACT or NC but ACT are socially liberal and NC are economically quite centrist.
ACT are socially liberal in some areas, they seem to be happy to support tougher penalties for criminals where it suits, although they have moderated this since before the previous election which is more in keeping with Seymour's party shift. Seymour's latest move is to attach itself to the plight of firearms owners and the anti-1080 crowd, which previously New Zealand First also attempted to do.
I can easily see Collins taking National to a more hard right (further right than centre-right) if the rest of National's more moderate wing either leave or defect and form a new party, there's no way now most swing voters would want to see Collins as Prime Minister.
by Drongonia » Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:07 am
Radiatia wrote:All that said, the loss of Nikki Kaye in Auckland Central will be a hammerblow to National. I'm not Kaye's biggest fan (I've met her multiple times and found her thoroughly arrogant and impersonable each time) but she was an important lifeline for the party amongst the affluent, liberal inner city voter who would otherwise vote Green. Swarbick definitely has a strong chance there now.
The Republic of Drongonia
The MT powerhouse of Oceania. New Zealand but richer.
Overview | Political Parties | Our Leader | Defence Force Info | 9axes | Faces of Drongonia | Drongonia - The Man Behind the Spreadsheet
by Costa Fierro » Fri Jul 17, 2020 6:32 pm
Radiatia wrote:That's a very valid point actually. ACT have always had a bit of a right-wing populist streak, harking back to the Rodney Hide "Three Strikes" era and to a certain extent the disastrous John Banks saga. However Seymour has undoubtedly returned the party to being, at its core, a socially liberal party with a couple of strangely barbed edges of ultra-conservatism.
As for swing-voters, I actually think you'd be surprised how popular Collins is with middle New Zealand. I'm not sure how she'll do against post-Covid post-Christchurch Jacinda but if she hangs on until 2023 I suspect that middle New Zealand will choose the strong and decisive Collins over the considerably more flakey Jacinda Ardern when things calm down a bit.
by Costa Fierro » Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:21 pm
Drongonia wrote:Radiatia wrote:All that said, the loss of Nikki Kaye in Auckland Central will be a hammerblow to National. I'm not Kaye's biggest fan (I've met her multiple times and found her thoroughly arrogant and impersonable each time) but she was an important lifeline for the party amongst the affluent, liberal inner city voter who would otherwise vote Green. Swarbick definitely has a strong chance there now.
I've heard the idea of Luxon being thrown in there being passed around. I think he'd fill that role relatively well, but whoever they choose needs to be announced sooner rather than later if they want a real chance at winning that seat. Hopefully (for them), Green and Labour ends up split, as Nikki Kaye only beat Jacinda Ardern in that seat by a few hundred votes in both 2011 and 2014. Although, the margin was significantly higher in 2017 against Helen White.
National's strategy will be to go for about 40% of the electorate vote I suspect. Labour will likely get about 30% with the Greens scooping up 10 - 15%, and you can't do a coalition deal in an electorate seat. I understand the Greens' inherent desire for a seat, nobody wants to be in the NZF position where they solely rely on the party vote (seeing as they lost Northland in 2017 after Winston Peters only holding it for 2 years). But back to the point, I think the Greens gunning for Auckland Central will split the left's votes and end up hurting Labour and the Greens equally.
by Costa Fierro » Fri Jul 17, 2020 7:29 pm
by Drongonia » Fri Jul 17, 2020 9:42 pm
Costa Fierro wrote:The Bad Boys of Brexit have confirmed that they have a contract with New Zealand First despite Winston saying otherwise.
Should be interesting to see what kind of idiocy they can come up with to save a party polling on 1.5%. Also, Judith Collins has ruled out working with Winston.
The Republic of Drongonia
The MT powerhouse of Oceania. New Zealand but richer.
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by South Odreria 2 » Fri Jul 17, 2020 10:52 pm
Valrifell wrote:
Disregard whatever this poster says
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by Radiatia » Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:09 pm
Drongonia wrote:Radiatia wrote:All that said, the loss of Nikki Kaye in Auckland Central will be a hammerblow to National. I'm not Kaye's biggest fan (I've met her multiple times and found her thoroughly arrogant and impersonable each time) but she was an important lifeline for the party amongst the affluent, liberal inner city voter who would otherwise vote Green. Swarbick definitely has a strong chance there now.
I've heard the idea of Luxon being thrown in there being passed around. I think he'd fill that role relatively well, but whoever they choose needs to be announced sooner rather than later if they want a real chance at winning that seat. Hopefully (for them), Green and Labour ends up split, as Nikki Kaye only beat Jacinda Ardern in that seat by a few hundred votes in both 2011 and 2014. Although, the margin was significantly higher in 2017 against Helen White.
National's strategy will be to go for about 40% of the electorate vote I suspect. Labour will likely get about 30% with the Greens scooping up 10 - 15%, and you can't do a coalition deal in an electorate seat. I understand the Greens' inherent desire for a seat, nobody wants to be in the NZF position where they solely rely on the party vote (seeing as they lost Northland in 2017 after Winston Peters only holding it for 2 years). But back to the point, I think the Greens gunning for Auckland Central will split the left's votes and end up hurting Labour and the Greens equally.
Costa Fierro wrote:Collins and Brownlee have "history" (for the want of a better word) in terms of scandals, and while the New Zealand public have short attention spans, there's still a lingering bitterness about their respective roles in government, especially Brownlee's handling of the Christchurch rebuild.
Drongonia wrote:Costa Fierro wrote:The Bad Boys of Brexit have confirmed that they have a contract with New Zealand First despite Winston saying otherwise.
Should be interesting to see what kind of idiocy they can come up with to save a party polling on 1.5%. Also, Judith Collins has ruled out working with Winston.
I know it's been said before by everyone from pundits to the ol' Joe Public but I fucking hope Winston will finally be gone this time. This time, surely. Right guys? Right?
South Odreria 2 wrote:NZ first is an incredibly based party
by South Odreria 2 » Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:23 pm
Valrifell wrote:
Disregard whatever this poster says
by Drongonia » Fri Jul 17, 2020 11:43 pm
South Odreria 2 wrote:NZ first is an incredibly based party
The Republic of Drongonia
The MT powerhouse of Oceania. New Zealand but richer.
Overview | Political Parties | Our Leader | Defence Force Info | 9axes | Faces of Drongonia | Drongonia - The Man Behind the Spreadsheet
by Costa Fierro » Sat Jul 18, 2020 1:23 am
Radiatia wrote:There is no way in hell that Luxon would win Auckland Central. He might do well elsewhere, but he would laughed out of that particular electorate if he ran. (I also think he might be in for a bit of a shock if, as is widely speculated, he ends up leader but that's something to talk about in 2023.)
Nikki Kaye was a shoe-in if she hadn't resigned, for the reasons you outlined (the political left in NZ are notoriously bad when it comes to vote-splitting - a lot of seats like Northland spring to mind there.) However I now predict that either Labour or the Greens will win it simply because I don't think National have anyone of Kaye's calibre who they can bring out on short notice.
Collins will probably be fine - the people who are upset about her past scandals were never going to vote for her anyway and she has enough charisma to rise above it relatively unscathed. Brownlee is another matter - I'm from Christchurch and aware of just how unpopular he is, but people don't really care about the deputy leader. I couldn't even name Labour's deputy, for example.
I don't think Winston's coming back. I was once a supporter of his and I know that a huge chunk of his base walked out on him for a variety of reasons - mostly to do with his and his party's conduct in 2017. (And despite the common assumption, I would say that this, rather than him going with Labour or National ruling him out, is the greater factor in why he won't be back.)
It's interesting that he's brought along some Brexiteers, but they won't save him. In 2017 NZ First had the winds blowing in their favour, but they squandered those opportunities.
by Drongonia » Sat Jul 18, 2020 1:59 am
Costa Fierro wrote:I still can't rule out New Zealand First making it back to Parliament even in a reduced capacity. Shane Jones is an outside contender in Northland, however it depends on how much influence he's managed to buy himself up there.
The Republic of Drongonia
The MT powerhouse of Oceania. New Zealand but richer.
Overview | Political Parties | Our Leader | Defence Force Info | 9axes | Faces of Drongonia | Drongonia - The Man Behind the Spreadsheet
by Radiatia » Sat Jul 18, 2020 2:43 am
South Odreria 2 wrote:Said ego made her worship Ardern raise the minimum wage
Drongonia wrote:South Odreria 2 wrote:NZ first is an incredibly based party
Lmao no, Winston says based shit like "when you walk down Queen Street in Auckland you don't know whether you're in Shanghai or New Zealand" (which is true) but then proceeds to do nothing about it whenever he has a share of the power.
by New Rogernomics » Sat Jul 18, 2020 5:54 am
I am fine with that. NZ doesn't need its sole anti-immigrant party actually doing something. NZ would end up like those Brexit mad-hatters or with an imitation Trump messing up it's politics. Ideally, NZ First is ineffective and entertaining.Radiatia wrote:[...]Absolutely this. Winston talks a good game, and I agree frequently with the things he says. But after three years in coalition, it's action not rhetoric upon which I will judge him and NZ First have not been able to walk their talk.[...]
by Drongonia » Sat Jul 18, 2020 7:10 am
New Rogernomics wrote:I am fine with that. NZ doesn't need its sole anti-immigrant party actually doing something. NZ would end up like those Brexit mad-hatters or with an imitation Trump messing up it's politics. Ideally, NZ First is ineffective and entertaining.Radiatia wrote:[...]Absolutely this. Winston talks a good game, and I agree frequently with the things he says. But after three years in coalition, it's action not rhetoric upon which I will judge him and NZ First have not been able to walk their talk.[...]
The Republic of Drongonia
The MT powerhouse of Oceania. New Zealand but richer.
Overview | Political Parties | Our Leader | Defence Force Info | 9axes | Faces of Drongonia | Drongonia - The Man Behind the Spreadsheet
by Radiatia » Sat Jul 18, 2020 6:39 pm
by Costa Fierro » Sat Jul 18, 2020 6:40 pm
Drongonia wrote:Costa Fierro wrote:I still can't rule out New Zealand First making it back to Parliament even in a reduced capacity. Shane Jones is an outside contender in Northland, however it depends on how much influence he's managed to buy himself up there.
You can never rule Winston and his merry band of bludgers out, but we can only hope. The thing with Shane Jones is that he's not as popular as Winston Peters is. Not to mention the fact that Jones has managed to come off as perhaps the most idiotic person in the entire parliament.
I actually don't think so at all. There's a pure "from the numbers" infrastructure and governmental argument to be had for reducing immigration in this country - regardless of race.
by Drongonia » Sat Jul 18, 2020 10:21 pm
Radiatia wrote:I don't want to accuse him being senile but the more I observe him the more I find myself wondering if his advanced age might be starting to have a tangible negative impact.
The Republic of Drongonia
The MT powerhouse of Oceania. New Zealand but richer.
Overview | Political Parties | Our Leader | Defence Force Info | 9axes | Faces of Drongonia | Drongonia - The Man Behind the Spreadsheet
by Drongonia » Sat Jul 18, 2020 10:32 pm
Costa Fierro wrote:Well it's a close tie between him and Bridges/Muller on being complete and utter idiots, but he's not the worst person in cabinet, oddly enough. That honour goes to David Clark (Twyford a close second but he didn't throw senior civil servants under the bus).
Costa Fierro wrote:Given that border restrictions are going to be in place until widespread herd immunity/vaccinations are undertaken, immigration isn't going to be a problem for New Zealand. As for returning New Zealanders, give it time and they'll be fleeing the country because of the high costs of living and crappy wages.
Costa Fierro wrote:More to the point though, the arguments against immigration so we can build better infrastructure/more housing is fairly oversimplifying the issues at heart here. Our lack of adequate infrastructure isn't due to immigration, it's due to hilariously bad government planning, and the false wisdom of privatising basically everything regarding infrastructure. We have crappy public transport because it must operate on a for-profit basis independent of local councils and doesn't offer comprehensive coverage. It's expensive, because it must recover costs incurred through fares. We build roads because more people are forced to use cars in order to get anywhere, which in of itself is rooted in a rather outdated idea of cars and freeways being the symbols of prosperity. So rather than have actual decent public transport, we're stuck with parties building roads thanks to antiquated ideas of prosperity and economic growth, as well as lobbying from certain industries who stand to benefit from more roads.
Costa Fierro wrote:As for housing, we saw in Auckland what happened when foreigners were banned from buying property. House prices dipped, stabilised, and went back up. You'd get perhaps a few months of lowered prices before the market rallies on the back of greater domestic investment and demand from wealthy property investors, who aren't paying nearly enough tax on their investment properties, drive prices back up. It also doesn't address the fundamental problems of New Zealand's property market and how we ended up in this mess in the first place.
Costa Fierro wrote:The problem is that all these could be addressed if we had ten or fifteen years of policy continuance in regards to setting a plan and goals and actually achieving them, as well as a government not bound by re-election prospects to introduce the necessary tax structure to disincentivise investment properties.
The Republic of Drongonia
The MT powerhouse of Oceania. New Zealand but richer.
Overview | Political Parties | Our Leader | Defence Force Info | 9axes | Faces of Drongonia | Drongonia - The Man Behind the Spreadsheet
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