NS Stats - Trends, Correlations, Anti-Correlations, Oh My!

by **Trotterdam** » Sat May 09, 2020 1:21 am

The Arms Manufacturing industry includes weapons used locally, not just exports.

So nations with high Defense Forces but low Arms Manufacturing would either need to import most of their weapons, or just have very primitive militaries that rely on poorly-equipped human wave tactics (both are plausible). Nations with low Defense Forces but high Arms Manufacturing sell their weapons to either civilians or other nations.

by **Valentine Z** » Sat May 09, 2020 1:25 am

Ahh, that's an interesting one, thanks! My assumption was that it was just weapons exported, not the ones that the country uses as well. Hmm!

I should probably do more research on these topics as I go on. ^^ It's a bit hard for me to guess from face-value of these stats on what they could imply, but it's always good to get more experienced input. :3

by **Zentata** » Sat May 09, 2020 1:32 pm

While this is interesting as always, the first sentence in the post says "safety" not "defense forces". Now that would be an interesting comparison! Can't wait to see more!

by **Valentine Z** » Sat May 09, 2020 7:37 pm

Zentata wrote:While this is interesting as always, the first sentence in the post says "safety" not "defense forces". Now that would be an interesting comparison! Can't wait to see more!

Ahh right, I made a mistake from carrying it over from the previous post. I'll fix that soon, thank you for pointing it out! ^^

And thanks for your support!

by **Valentine Z** » Tue May 12, 2020 5:12 pm

For theses three stats - Civil Rights, Economic Freedom, Political Freedom, we will be trying something... special, when we are looking at these values. I might perhaps use absolute values instead of mere ranks, which in hindsight I should have done it rather a long time ago. We will get back to these stats soon enough and with better metrics! Anyway, let's get started!

Civil Rights (Y) vs. Economic Freedom (X) is a go!

Linear-Linear:

Log-Log:

Linear-Log:

Log-Linear:

The linear regression trend is 0.302279 x + 5.61083, 6 significant figures. Based on the data fed into the graph, there seems to be a very, very small positive correlation there. As the Economic Freedoms increase, so shall the Civil Rights. However, realistically speaking, the two stats do not seem to be related to each other in any way. Sure, there is the "Freedom for one lead to another" but it's not too obvious.

Of note is that Economic Freedom, as discussed earlier, tends to have a "forbidden zone", specifically around -10 < EF < 0 mark.

Trends and exceptions?

High Civil Rights (> 80) and High Economic Freedom (> 50): 708 nations.
These nations enjoy both the civil rights and economic freedom, perhaps even down to the extent whereby it gets anarchic. In some cases, it might not be as beneficial to have high freedoms for both attributes, as it becomes a tad lawless. Of note is that the number might be bloated thanks to me adding the puppet nations from Two Letters, a region of puppets with a lot of Anarchy nations.

Low Civil Rights (< 20) and Low Economic Freedom (< -50): 875 nations.
The opposite of the spectrum. A paradise for heavy-handed Communists and Dictatorships alike, this is where capitalist dreams come to die, and civil rights is a very, very dirty word.

High Civil Rights (> 80) and Low Economic Freedom (< -50): 517 nations.
Scandinavian Liberal Paradise, perhaps? Or even a Democratic Socialism? These nations enjoy a lot of civil rights, but when they go into business, you bet you are monitored to the inch of your life.

Low Civil Rights (< 20) and High Economic Freedom (> 50): 1278 nations.
For those nations that might not value the rights of a person more than the might and power of money. You are free to open a business in any way, shape, or form, but... you might not have a lot of personal freedom outside of your office.

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Due to the nature of these stats with a lot of ties, I decided to look at these extremes closely:

Max Civil Rights (100), Max Economic Freedom (100): 31 nations.
Min Civil Rights (0), Min Economic Freedom (-100): 6 nations.
Max Civil Rights (100), Min Economic Freedom (-100): 0 nations.
Min Civil Rights (0), Max Economic Freedom (100): 0 nations.

by **Valentine Z** » Tue May 12, 2020 6:28 pm

I will also do this quickly now, since... these two trends tend to share the similar mechanics. Let's get to it, los, los, los!

Political Freedom (Y) vs. Economic Freedom (X) is a go!

Linear-Linear:

Log-Log:

Linear-Log:

Log-Linear:

The linear regression trend is 0.358190 x + 2.83482, 6 significant figures. Based on the data fed into the graph, there seems to be a very, very small positive correlation there. As the Economic Freedoms increase, so shall the Political Freedom. However, realistically speaking, the two stats do not seem to be related to each other in any way. Sure, there is the "Freedom for one lead to another" but it's not too obvious. There is, however, the implied tie between Politics and Business, so we shall look at these as we move on.

Of note is that Economic Freedom, as discussed earlier, tends to have a "forbidden zone", specifically around -10 < EF < 0 mark.

Trends and exceptions?

High Political Freedom (> 80) and High Economic Freedom (> 50): 893 nations.
These nations enjoy both the political freedom and economic freedom, perhaps even down to the extent whereby it gets anarchic. There's no limit for either one of these anymore.

Low Political Freedom (< 20) and Low Economic Freedom (< -50): 1375 nations.
The opposite of the spectrum. You don't have a say in who you want your leader to be, and you cannot raise a business. Either that, or you will be forced to work in one of the state's businesses and jobs, so... depending on how you look at it, it might either be a good or a bad thing.

High Political Freedom (> 80) and Low Economic Freedom (< -50): 749 nations.
Perhaps a Democratic Socialism? These nations enjoy a lot of political freedom, except in business. For business, you have no say and businesses have no political influence.

Low Political Freedom (< 20) and High Economic Freedom (> 50): 2341 nations.
For those nations that might not value the rights of a person more than the might and power of money. You are free to open a business in any way, shape, or form, but... you might not have a lot of political say. Note that you might still have a chance at Civil Rights, but politically? Nope. This could be RL Singapore, if you consider the economic freedom to be rather high. It's easy to open a business here but there are just some limits, and inspections to make sure that you are up to standard.

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Due to the nature of these stats with a lot of ties, I decided to look at these extremes closely:

Max Political Freedom (100), Max Economic Freedom (100): 44 nations.
Min Political Freedom (0), Min Economic Freedom (-100): 12 nations.
Max Political Freedom (100), Min Economic Freedom (-100): 0 nations.
Min Political Freedom (0), Max Economic Freedom (100): 0 nations.

by **Valentine Z** » Wed May 13, 2020 10:12 am

So.. this is a rather impromptu one, which I will do it on a deeper level, but just for those that wants to see all three freedoms in one chart, here you go!

Civil Rights (X), Political Freedom (Y), Economic Freedom (Z, color scale).

Linear-Linear-Linear:

Linear-Linear-Log:

Log-Log-Linear:

Log-Log-Log:

I decided to use log for the Color Scale, since it seems suited for the Economic Freedom scale. In favor over precise and diverse colors, it simply "squashes" EF into not free (red) or free (blue).

High Civil Rights (X > 80), High Political Freedom (Y > 80), High Economic Freedom (Z > 50): 459 nations.

High Civil Rights (X > 80), High Political Freedom (Y > 80), Low Economic Freedom (Z < -50): 148 nations.

Low Civil Rights (X < 20), Low Political Freedom (Y < 20), High Economic Freedom (Z > 50): 507 nations.

Low Civil Rights (X < 20), Low Political Freedom (Y < 20), Low Economic Freedom (Z < -50): 770 nations.

High Civil Rights (X > 80), Low Political Freedom (Y < 20), High Economic Freedom (Z > 50): 8 nations.

High Civil Rights (X > 80), Low Political Freedom (Y < 20), Low Economic Freedom (Z < -50): 3 nations.

Low Civil Rights (X < 20), High Political Freedom (Y > 80), High Economic Freedom (Z > 50): 5 nations.

Low Civil Rights (X < 20), High Political Freedom (Y > 80), Low Economic Freedom (Z < -50): 2 nations.

by **Zentata** » Thu May 14, 2020 7:50 am

That last combination is strange. It's like a democratic dictatorship taken to an extreme.

by **Valentine Z** » Thu May 14, 2020 9:49 am

Zentata wrote:That last combination is strange. It's like a democratic dictatorship taken to an extreme.

Oh, it indeed is. It seems like... It's a dictatorship, but you at least get a choice on who you want to be in office. But it just so happens that they are controlling in one way or another.

by **Trotterdam** » Thu May 14, 2020 1:08 pm

Remember, the official game name for such governments is Tyranny by Majority.

I see it as enforced conformity. Any behavior that deviates from the average is persecuted. Thing is, everyone deviates from the average in some way or another. (On average, people aren't average, but rather one standard deviation from the average.)

by **Valentine Z** » Thu May 14, 2020 1:49 pm

Trotterdam wrote:Remember, the official game name for such governments is Tyranny by Majority.

I see it as enforced conformity. Any behavior that deviates from the average is persecuted. Thing is, everyone deviates from the average in some way or another. (On average, people aren't average, but rather one standard deviation from the average.)

Ahh, that! Seems like a step close to Anarchy, but of course, not an anarchy. It just so happens that you will be swarmed and overwhelmed by the collective / majority, as the title suggests. I wonder if I should make a correlation with Religiousness soon.

by **Valentine Z** » Tue May 26, 2020 9:57 am

~~Third (this time for real) Data Trawl is here!~~

The third data trawl is here! More nations, more regions, and more importantly... thanks to a lot of you, more stats! ^^ Other than NS Stats, now the Third Trawl boasts Government Expenditure, Economy Type, and Causes of Deaths.

There are also derived stats, such as Absolute Government Expenditure, which I would like to term it as: Percentage Government Expenditure * (Average Income - Average Disposable Income).

In the same vein and fashion, there are also Absolute Market Sector and Absolute Number of Deaths. For the Market Sector, I will assume that it's Market Sector % * Economic Output. Though of course, I will still use the NS Stats' Black Market for, well, Black Market.

Absolute Number of Deaths = Percentage of that particular death type * Death Rate

CII - Combined Industries Index, is also another new thing that I added with my own calculations. It's basically a calculation of Normalized industries, and combining all of these industries. There are 15 industries with 2 sectors (manufacturing and agriculture), and since they have different range and scales (e.g. Cheese Industry has a smaller absolute number than Manufacturing), so each of them are normalized between 0 to 1, and added together. Theoretical Maximum is 1 * 17 = 17, a nation with 1st for ALL Industries and Sectors. I should have added Tourism along the way, which I will do soon to make it 18.

CIWR - Combined Industries World Rank. Works more or less the same as CII, but with World Ranks instead of mere numbers. Lower this combined number, the better.

Sum of 3 Rights: Civil Rights + Political Freedom + (Economic Freedom + 100) / 2, with EF shifted from -100 / +100 to 0 / +100.

Precise Wealth Gap: Direct calculation of Average Income of Rich / Average Income of Poor.

Precise Income Equality: Direct calculation of Average Income of Poor / Average Income of Rich * 100.

There were 53 regions included in this trawl.

This makes it a whopping 96268 rows × 281 columns of data, taking 1 d + 8 h + 42 min + 33 s to collect them all, excluding processing time, clearing the data from CTEd nations, and adding a few smaller regions (~ 1 d + 9 h if including them).

27,051,308 data points overall. I am once again ready to take in requests! For now, I will still be finishing up the 2nd Trawl's request list.

Here's CII and both HDIs (from NS Stats and from API call) in action, along with regional filtering (set to Sonnel):

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With new data, you are indeed allowed to make the same requests, so don't worry if you are requesting a trend again that I have done for 1st and 2nd Trawls. ♥

by **Tinhampton** » Wed May 27, 2020 11:54 pm

Have you finally managed to cobble together my CII (which I requested last time without success in the GI? Discord), or did you manage to contrive once again to leave Tinhampton out of your record set? lol

by **Valentine Z** » Thu May 28, 2020 12:19 am

- Snip because feck me, I was awful. -

by **The Free Joy State** » Thu May 28, 2020 12:38 am

Valentine, the work you've put into this endeavour is truly impressive.

Now, may I suggest you take a deep breath and take a step back before doing anything that could accelerate your own thread. I understand how easy it is to feel chagrined after all the effort you've put in, but it's easy for miscommunication to occur in a written format.

by **Honeydewistania** » Thu May 28, 2020 12:47 am

The Free Joy State wrote:Valentine, the work you've put into this endeavour is truly impressive.

Now, may I suggest you take a deep breath and take a step back before doing anything that could accelerate your own thread. I understand how easy it is to feel chagrined after all the effort you've put in, but it's easy for miscommunication to occur in a written format.

This. While Tinhampton is being annoying, you shouldn’t take your anger out on a public forum. Tinhampton was probably joking and it was probably miscommunication of some sort. If you’re stressed, just take a few deep breaths (I know, cliché)

by **Valentine Z** » Thu May 28, 2020 12:50 am

I really don't have problems with anyone. I really, really don't. Hell, Tin has been fine with me throughout my life and time here.

But let it be said that I am indeed extremely stressed to the point of nearly bursting a vein. It's not just NS, of course. Last term of my school is... less said, the better.

I gonna take my own break and yeah, I know of the limits on this forums well enough.

by **Honeydewistania** » Thu May 28, 2020 12:52 am

Valentine Z wrote:I really don't have problems with anyone. I really, really don't. Hell, Tin has been fine with me throughout my life and time here.

But let it be said that I am indeed extremely stressed to the point of nearly bursting a vein. It's not just NS, of course. Last term of my school is... less said, the better.

I gonna take my own break and yeah, I know of the limits on this forums well enough.

That’s a good idea

by **The Free Joy State** » Thu May 28, 2020 12:55 am

Valentine Z wrote:I really don't have problems with anyone. I really, really don't. Hell, Tin has been fine with me throughout my life and time here.

But let it be said that I am indeed extremely stressed to the point of nearly bursting a vein. It's not just NS, of course. Last term of my school is... less said, the better.

I gonna take my own break and yeah, I know of the limits on this forums well enough.

For stress, I've found mindful meditation can help. I remember using it in my last year of university.

Also, if you need to let NS things slide a little for a while so you can focus on school, do. RL > NS, every time.

by **Tinhampton** » Thu May 28, 2020 1:24 am

I have reproduced the below apology I telegrammed Val Z earlier for your comfort, safety, and peace of mind:

Code: Select all: Honeydewistania is right, pretty much - I have never had any intention of annoying you, in this setting or on past occasions... Sorry for making you a bit more stressed at this stage :3 I hope you can understand that I was not in your second trawl by virtue of being domiciled in The Black Hawks at the time, which was not among the trawled regions, rather than through any deliberate negligence of your own :p

If I wanted to start a foreign affairs incident, I would have done so with The West Pacific or Balder, not with one of the greatest statisticians ever to grace the Issuesverse.

by **Valentine Z** » Thu May 28, 2020 1:42 pm

For what it's worth, I'm sorry about my meltdown a few hours back. @Tinhampton I got your TG, I'm sorry as well. I think it's an understatement to say that I overreacted quite a fair lot. I swear, I am normally not this mad, and I am not boastful about how angry I can be; if anything, I take it as a mark of shame that "Oh God, I explode much harder than others."

But yeah, I'm fine now! No hard feelings from me, really. ^^

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I'm moving on to the backlog of trends with the second trawl of data, so.... I really want to get them done so that I can move on with the new and exciting data!

Next up: #2-24: Corruption vs Economic Freedom - Requested by Angshire

by **Valentine Z** » Sat May 30, 2020 5:08 pm

Finally moving on to the next one - Economic Freedom (X) vs Corruption (Y)!

Linear regression line equation is -0.047014 X + ( 25.982924 ), to 6 significant figures.

I would say it's not necessarily a linear regression, but there seems to be an even-power correlation, i.e. x², x⁴, x⁶... Going too left to having very little economic freedom would breed corruption (dictatorships), but at the same time, having little to no restrictions on your economy is grounds for breeding corruption due to the lack of overwatch. But at the same time, it's not the -100 and +100 nations that has the greatest corruption rates; it goes to the high-but-not-top nations in terms of economic freedom.

Let's look at the trends and exceptions to this rule. The Top 10% of the corruption has more than 50 kickbacks, while the Top 90% / Bottom 10% has less than 0.70 kickbacks. For Economic Freedom, I'm taking the Top and Bottom as -60 and +60 respectively. The % doesn't really work given the amount of nations tied for 100.0.

High Economic Freedom, High Corruption: 570 nations
Low Economic Freedom, Low Corruption: 609 nations
High Economic Freedom, Low Corruption: 3704 nations
Low Economic Freedom, High Corruption: 3392 nations

Strangely enough, it seems to be the alternating trends that has more nations, as opposed to the direct correlation. Which would probably mean that the correlation is not entirely linear. There are certain points where a high economic freedom would spell disaster in transparency (since you are free to do whatever you want), as with low economic freedom yielding transparency if the dictatorship, pray tell, is actually pretty clean in the economy sense. Perhaps a Benevolent Dictatorship and most Left Wings, if you will, that has no hand in demolishing civil rights and political freedoms, but only wants the best for the people in the economy sector.

The top and bottom for corruption respectively. I decided to take out Economic Freedom max/min, since there are multiple nations. There were 52 nations with +100 EF, and 22 nations with -22 EF.

And as you can see, the highest and lowest corrupt countries are not necessarily the ones with the lowest or highest EF.

by **Valentine Z** » Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:28 am

Okay, so I did a bit of a change. Instead of Integrity, I decided to go with Corruption, because of the bigger range that it offers, since Integrity is limited to 0-100 %. Here it is!

Linear-Linear:

Log-Log:

Linear-Log:

Log-Linear:

You will notice that there are now two variants - one with Frequency / Density to show where nation distributions are. The frequency graphs are best-viewed for Linear-Linear because for Logarithmic ones, unless you do know how to read them, it will seem like the distances do not correlate to the frequency / density. Such is the case with 10⁰ and 10¹.

Linear regression line equation is 0.004271 X + (0.846531), to 6 significant figures.
The R-Squared Score is 0.482443, the Standard Error is 3.166296e-05.

So, there is quite a good linear correlation, it seems. Would seem as if as the Arms Industry gets bigger, a nation tends to get more corrupted. Or just that the more corrupt nations tend to have bigger arms markets thanks to them selling and distributing them, legally or otherwise.

10th Percentile of Corruption is around 0.70. The 90th Percentile is around 50.
10th Percentile of Arms Manufacturing is around -7.75. The 90th Percentile is around 11500.

High Arms Manufacturing, High Corruption: 1671 nations
Low Arms Manufacturing, Low Corruption: 1011 nations
High Arms Manufacturing, Low Corruption: 953 nations
Low Arms Manufacturing, High Corruption: 1527 nations

It would seem this time that there are no exceptional exceptions out there. All the 4 trends are equally possible, some more than others. You can be a corrupt businessman that exports a lot of weapons to war-torn countries, or a saintly businessman that simply delivers and provides weapons to other countries for the sole purpose of military exercises (like providing equipment to Singapore, as a RL example and experience).

It is also possible for a nation to have no arms industry and is on either end of Integrity. Maybe they just don't see the need for weapons and sought for peace, or they just did not export and sell weapons to other countries.

The Max and Min for Corruption and Arms Industry. This time again, we have 3 nations with Tzo bottoming out both stats!

by **Trotterdam** » Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:31 am

Are you sure it's just the Arms Manufacturing industry that's associated with corruption, rather than industries in general?

by **Valentine Z** » Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:35 am

Trotterdam wrote:Are you sure it's just the Arms Manufacturing industry that's associated with corruption, rather than industries in general?

My words are: Would seem as if. So... I am not saying with certainty. It would just seem like there's a trend / slight correlation between the two, as shown by the R-score.

There are other industries involved, that is indeed true! But for these two stats alone, that seems to be a likely case.

It's neither an absolute association nor a direct proportion; it's a trend, a correlation that nations with bigger arms industries tend to have corrupt practices. Implications and interpretations, not absolutes. C'est l'intention originale, as one would say, heh heh!

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With the third data trawl, I will be looking into Combined Industries Index vs Corruption, which would fit more with what you are asking!

EDIT: My bad on the most recent one. I realized that I used the wrong dataset, so now this is using the correct dataset, i.e. one from Nov 2019. The trend is more or less the same, except with fewer points.

NS Stats - Trends, Correlations, Anti-Correlations, Oh My!

#2-21: Civil Rights (Y) vs. Economic Freedom (X)

#2-22: Political Freedom (Y) vs. Economic Freedom (X)

#2-23: Civil Rights (X), Political Freedom (Y), Eco Freedom

#2-24: Economic Freedom (X) vs Corruption (Y)

#2-25: Arms Industry (X) vs Corruption (Y)

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