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Coronavirus Thread III: The Show Must Not Go On (READ OP)

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Valrifell
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Postby Valrifell » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:44 am

San Lumen wrote:
Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
If you use the term "lockdown" to mean "any and all restrictions" then the answer can only be Yes. There will be SOME restrictions for a long time.

You shouldn't be all or nothing about it. Maybe you want all restrictions eased, but you won't get that. You will get one or maybe some restrictions eased, after the peak, and what you should be doing is arguing which ones are most onerous and have least effect on infection rates.

Make an even slightly nuanced argument, and you might find some people agree with you. Not LOCKDOWN BAD, you can see it's not working.

As a start do what Georgia and other southern states have done which is reopening business.


If you're modelling a reopen schedule after Georgia and the rest of the South that's a fuckin yikes from me, dawg.
For the benefit of all humankind

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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:45 am

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... nald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s

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Samudera Darussalam
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Postby Samudera Darussalam » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:47 am

San Lumen wrote:
Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
If you use the term "lockdown" to mean "any and all restrictions" then the answer can only be Yes. There will be SOME restrictions for a long time.

You shouldn't be all or nothing about it. Maybe you want all restrictions eased, but you won't get that. You will get one or maybe some restrictions eased, after the peak, and what you should be doing is arguing which ones are most onerous and have least effect on infection rates.

Make an even slightly nuanced argument, and you might find some people agree with you. Not LOCKDOWN BAD, you can see it's not working.

As a start do what Georgia and other southern states have done which is reopening business. Both people and the state need to make money. If unemployment runs out people can’t by food. If the state can’t collect income or sales tax it runs out of money to provide services

Including reopening the beaches like Florida (sorry Heloin!)?

Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
Samudera Darussalam wrote:Well, I heard that Oz and NZ are doing pretty well so that's a good news too.


It's partly good luck. Our cities are spread out: "urban sprawl" which governments have been trying to get rid of for ages. Both governments acted before the US government did. Also it's sunny and warm even in autumn (but look at South America before putting too much stock in that).

But I think there's a lesson for everyone. Big cities need tighter restrictions than small ones. Out in the country, it might be enough to tell everyone to keep social distance.

That some interesting facts. As far as I understand it, Australia perhaps only need to worry about Sydney and maybe Melbourne, while NZ's Auckland. They also benefit from being islands countries, mostly NZ though in this case, they are pretty much almost isolated.

Oh, I know about the warm temperature thing. Living in a country literally north of yours, it doesn't seem to work that way out here, though perhaps something like population density in Java might have screw something. Some islands and/or regions are doing better, like Bali, oddly.

Also, yes, indeed. I think that's what being implemented in my area at least. The major city and its immediate surrounding suburbs are under stricter lockdown while less denser, more rural regions farther away that still make up the metropolitan area are under looser lockdown.
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Salandriagado
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Postby Salandriagado » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:51 am

San Lumen wrote:
Juristonia wrote:I mean, for a while, yes. Otherwise you're just going to get a second wave, which can potentially be even worse than the first one.
You don't cut the parachute when it slows you down. You cut it when your feet are on the ground.

How long is awhile?


Long enough to get cases down to within the range that we can fully contact trace. How long that is depends on how well people follow the lockdown.
Cosara wrote:
Anachronous Rex wrote:Good thing most a majority of people aren't so small-minded, and frightened of other's sexuality.

Over 40% (including me), are, so I fixed the post for accuracy.

Vilatania wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:
Notice that the link is to the notes from a university course on probability. You clearly have nothing beyond the most absurdly simplistic understanding of the subject.
By choosing 1, you no longer have 0 probability of choosing 1. End of subject.

(read up the quote stack)

Deal. £3000 do?[/quote]

Of course.[/quote]

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Loben The 2nd
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Postby Loben The 2nd » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:51 am

San Lumen wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s

Good.
no quarter.
Satisfaction guaranteed.

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Salandriagado
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Postby Salandriagado » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:52 am

Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:Actually, people on both sides, Australia is relaxing some restrictions and I agree with the move.

All elective surgery was on indefinite hold, but with plenty of hospital capacity it's being resumed.

And K-12 schooling is resuming (after the mid-semester break, varies by state). I have some reservations about that, I think children will spread the virus a bit, but I don't expect it to be enough to drive hospitals to capacity and cause avoidable death.

I am sort of boasting, Australia has done well. But I'm also saying that restrictions can be relaxed somewhat after the peak. Even if that causes another peak and the same restrictions have to come back on, that is not disastrous unless hospital peak capacity is hit.


Australia has done a lot better than I expected, honestly. I was expecting a response more along the lines of the mess in the US/UK.
Cosara wrote:
Anachronous Rex wrote:Good thing most a majority of people aren't so small-minded, and frightened of other's sexuality.

Over 40% (including me), are, so I fixed the post for accuracy.

Vilatania wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:
Notice that the link is to the notes from a university course on probability. You clearly have nothing beyond the most absurdly simplistic understanding of the subject.
By choosing 1, you no longer have 0 probability of choosing 1. End of subject.

(read up the quote stack)

Deal. £3000 do?[/quote]

Of course.[/quote]

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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:52 am

Loben The 2nd wrote:
San Lumen wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s

Good.

Why is that good?

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Loben The 2nd
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Postby Loben The 2nd » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:53 am

San Lumen wrote:
Loben The 2nd wrote:Good.

Why is that good?

A little hardship goes a long way, maybe some good will come out it.
no quarter.
Satisfaction guaranteed.

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New Visayan Islands
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Postby New Visayan Islands » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:54 am

Lost Memories wrote:
The New California Republic wrote:

Once this will be all over, i want a bbc documentary cataloguing all the news about "Attack on 5G"
Or an hollywood movie, even better, "5G: 5 times terror"

Set to this introduction, no less.
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Valrifell
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Postby Valrifell » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:54 am

Loben The 2nd wrote:
San Lumen wrote:Why is that good?

A little hardship goes a long way, maybe some good will come out it.


"It's a good thing, actually, that you lost everything and are homeless. It builds character"
For the benefit of all humankind

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Loben The 2nd
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Corporate Bordello

Postby Loben The 2nd » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:56 am

Valrifell wrote:
Loben The 2nd wrote:A little hardship goes a long way, maybe some good will come out it.


"It's a good thing, actually, that you lost everything and are homeless. It builds character"


Shit happens.
no quarter.
Satisfaction guaranteed.

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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:57 am

Loben The 2nd wrote:
San Lumen wrote:Why is that good?

A little hardship goes a long way, maybe some good will come out it.

Yeah the 1930s were such wonderful times

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Nobel Hobos 2
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Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Nobel Hobos 2 » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:58 am

San Lumen wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s


Yeah that was OK. A polemic I can agree with.
Also, AiliAiliA
No footwear industry: citizens cannot afford new shoes.
High rate of Nobel prizes and other academic achievements.

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The East Marches II
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Postby The East Marches II » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:58 am

San Lumen wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s


St. Louis Fed said the same thing a month ago. Thank God Pelosi blocked a UBI! There is no data to support further emergency measures or call back the House :^)

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Nobel Hobos 2
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Postby Nobel Hobos 2 » Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:59 am

Loben The 2nd wrote:
Valrifell wrote:
"It's a good thing, actually, that you lost everything and are homeless. It builds character"


Shit happens.


Shit doesn't just happen. Some asshole does it.
Also, AiliAiliA
No footwear industry: citizens cannot afford new shoes.
High rate of Nobel prizes and other academic achievements.

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San Lumen
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby San Lumen » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:00 am

Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
San Lumen wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s


Yeah that was OK. A polemic I can agree with.

He is a Nobel laureate therefore he does know what he’s talking about
Last edited by San Lumen on Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Valrifell
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Postby Valrifell » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:00 am

Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
Loben The 2nd wrote:
Shit happens.


Shit doesn't just happen. Some asshole does it.


Wait why do I love this phrase.
For the benefit of all humankind

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Valrifell
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Postby Valrifell » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:01 am

The East Marches II wrote:
San Lumen wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s


St. Louis Fed said the same thing a month ago. Thank God Pelosi blocked a UBI! There is no data to support further emergency measures or call back the House :^)


You'd better be making Chuck and Nancy pay rent with all that time they spend in your head.
For the benefit of all humankind

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Nobel Hobos 2
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Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Nobel Hobos 2 » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:04 am

The East Marches II wrote:
San Lumen wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s


St. Louis Fed said the same thing a month ago.


Did you read Stiglitz? Or are you responding to San Lumen's very narrow summary of part of it?

Thank God Pelosi blocked a UBI! There is no data to support further emergency measures or call back the House :^)


There will be further emergency measures, if you mean spending.
Also, AiliAiliA
No footwear industry: citizens cannot afford new shoes.
High rate of Nobel prizes and other academic achievements.

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The East Marches II
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Founded: Mar 11, 2017
Ex-Nation

Postby The East Marches II » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:04 am

Valrifell wrote:
The East Marches II wrote:
St. Louis Fed said the same thing a month ago. Thank God Pelosi blocked a UBI! There is no data to support further emergency measures or call back the House :^)


You'd better be making Chuck and Nancy pay rent with all that time they spend in your head.


No need, they'll be made to pay by an enraged electorate :^)

I hope you're excited for 2020. I sure am!

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Nobel Hobos 2
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Founded: Dec 04, 2019
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Nobel Hobos 2 » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:05 am

Valrifell wrote:
Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
Shit doesn't just happen. Some asshole does it.


Wait why do I love this phrase.


I don't claim it. I saw it on a bumper sticker once.
Also, AiliAiliA
No footwear industry: citizens cannot afford new shoes.
High rate of Nobel prizes and other academic achievements.

User avatar
The East Marches II
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Posts: 18033
Founded: Mar 11, 2017
Ex-Nation

Postby The East Marches II » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:06 am

Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
The East Marches II wrote:
St. Louis Fed said the same thing a month ago.


Did you read Stiglitz? Or are you responding to San Lumen's very narrow summary of part of it?

Thank God Pelosi blocked a UBI! There is no data to support further emergency measures or call back the House :^)


There will be further emergency measures, if you mean spending.


I was mocking Pelosi saying we did not need further measures a week or two ago. Regarding San Lumen obviously I read it, taking a doom sayer at his word is retarded. I think Mr. Stiglitz is being rather optimistic in light of Fed data. It should have been big name left leaning economist attacks Trump. It really wasn't news.

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Nobel Hobos 2
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Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Nobel Hobos 2 » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:07 am

San Lumen wrote:
Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
Yeah that was OK. A polemic I can agree with.

He is a Nobel laureate therefore he does know what he’s talking about


Nobel prize in Economics. He's a bit out of field. But people should read it for themselves before deciding if he knows what he's talking about.
Also, AiliAiliA
No footwear industry: citizens cannot afford new shoes.
High rate of Nobel prizes and other academic achievements.

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Salandriagado
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Postby Salandriagado » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:07 am

OK, so this one definitely is good news, but is going to need some explaining:

We have multiple virulence reducing RNA deletions confirmed in the virus. Now, these variants aren't going to magically solve the problem - they're all less able to spread than the variants that they're mutations of. However, this is a big deal for a few reasons:

1. Given how little testing we've done for these things, this strongly suggests that there are a lot of these kinds of deletions out there. That is: we're rolling the dice lots of times.
2. Deletions don't undo themselves: RNA (unlike DNA) simply has no mechanism for correcting for gene deletions (there isn't a second copy available to re-construct it from), so these deletions will hang around, and potentially stack with more such deletions. That is: these dice stack.

Those two combine to mean that the odds of what I'm going to say below aren't as tiny as you might thing.

3. None of these examples have any effect on immune response. That is: if you're immune to one, you're immune to all of them.
4. If we isolate a reliably non-lethal variant of the virus, we have a new exit strategy (other than natural herd immunity, vaccination, or (local) eradication): variolation. Given a version of the virus that consistently doesn't kill people (and preferably consistently doesn't make them significantly ill), we could intentionally spread it through the (low-risk) population, therefore getting herd immunity without ever having to have the lethal version of the virus spread.

Now, this isn't guaranteed by any means (it's honestly relatively unlikely, even given points 1 and 2), and there's essentially nothing that we can do to speed it up (other than making sure that we're checking the RNA of as many different virus samples as possible for deletions, so that we don't miss them when they do happen), but it's an extra set of dice to roll, along with all of the vaccine candidates.

There's also evidence that it's [url=https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.16.20037259v1]becoming less deadly over time.
Last edited by Salandriagado on Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
Cosara wrote:
Anachronous Rex wrote:Good thing most a majority of people aren't so small-minded, and frightened of other's sexuality.

Over 40% (including me), are, so I fixed the post for accuracy.

Vilatania wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:
Notice that the link is to the notes from a university course on probability. You clearly have nothing beyond the most absurdly simplistic understanding of the subject.
By choosing 1, you no longer have 0 probability of choosing 1. End of subject.

(read up the quote stack)

Deal. £3000 do?[/quote]

Of course.[/quote]

User avatar
Valrifell
Postmaster of the Fleet
 
Posts: 25852
Founded: Aug 18, 2013
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Valrifell » Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:08 am

The East Marches II wrote:
Valrifell wrote:
You'd better be making Chuck and Nancy pay rent with all that time they spend in your head.


No need, they'll be made to pay by an enraged electorate :^)

I hope you're excited for 2020. I sure am!


Aw, that's cute. You think I have some attachment to Chuck and Nancy.
For the benefit of all humankind

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