Coronavirus Thread III: The Show Must Not Go On (READ OP)

[Valrifell]

If you use the term "lockdown" to mean "any and all restrictions" then the answer can only be Yes. There will be SOME restrictions for a long time.

You shouldn't be all or nothing about it. Maybe you want all restrictions eased, but you won't get that. You will get one or maybe some restrictions eased, after the peak, and what you should be doing is arguing which ones are most onerous and have least effect on infection rates.

Make an even slightly nuanced argument, and you might find some people agree with you. Not LOCKDOWN BAD, you can see it's not working.

As a start do what Georgia and other southern states have done which is reopening business.

If you're modelling a reopen schedule after Georgia and the rest of the South that's a fuckin yikes from me, dawg.

[San Lumen]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... nald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s

[Samudera Darussalam]

If you use the term "lockdown" to mean "any and all restrictions" then the answer can only be Yes. There will be SOME restrictions for a long time.

You shouldn't be all or nothing about it. Maybe you want all restrictions eased, but you won't get that. You will get one or maybe some restrictions eased, after the peak, and what you should be doing is arguing which ones are most onerous and have least effect on infection rates.

Make an even slightly nuanced argument, and you might find some people agree with you. Not LOCKDOWN BAD, you can see it's not working.

As a start do what Georgia and other southern states have done which is reopening business. Both people and the state need to make money. If unemployment runs out people can’t by food. If the state can’t collect income or sales tax it runs out of money to provide services

Including reopening the beaches like Florida (sorry Heloin!)?

Well, I heard that Oz and NZ are doing pretty well so that's a good news too.

It's partly good luck. Our cities are spread out: "urban sprawl" which governments have been trying to get rid of for ages. Both governments acted before the US government did. Also it's sunny and warm even in autumn (but look at South America before putting too much stock in that).

But I think there's a lesson for everyone. Big cities need tighter restrictions than small ones. Out in the country, it might be enough to tell everyone to keep social distance.

That some interesting facts. As far as I understand it, Australia perhaps only need to worry about Sydney and maybe Melbourne, while NZ's Auckland. They also benefit from being islands countries, mostly NZ though in this case, they are pretty much almost isolated.

Oh, I know about the warm temperature thing. Living in a country literally north of yours, it doesn't seem to work that way out here, though perhaps something like population density in Java might have screw something. Some islands and/or regions are doing better, like Bali, oddly.

Also, yes, indeed. I think that's what being implemented in my area at least. The major city and its immediate surrounding suburbs are under stricter lockdown while less denser, more rural regions farther away that still make up the metropolitan area are under looser lockdown.

[Salandriagado]

I mean, for a while, yes. Otherwise you're just going to get a second wave, which can potentially be even worse than the first one.
You don't cut the parachute when it slows you down. You cut it when your feet are on the ground.

How long is awhile?

Long enough to get cases down to within the range that we can fully contact trace. How long that is depends on how well people follow the lockdown.

[Loben The 2nd]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s

Good.

[Salandriagado]

Actually, people on both sides, Australia is relaxing some restrictions and I agree with the move.

All elective surgery was on indefinite hold, but with plenty of hospital capacity it's being resumed.

And K-12 schooling is resuming (after the mid-semester break, varies by state). I have some reservations about that, I think children will spread the virus a bit, but I don't expect it to be enough to drive hospitals to capacity and cause avoidable death.

I am sort of boasting, Australia has done well. But I'm also saying that restrictions can be relaxed somewhat after the peak. Even if that causes another peak and the same restrictions have to come back on, that is not disastrous unless hospital peak capacity is hit.

Australia has done a lot better than I expected, honestly. I was expecting a response more along the lines of the mess in the US/UK.

[San Lumen]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s

Good.

Why is that good?

[Loben The 2nd]

Good.

Why is that good?

A little hardship goes a long way, maybe some good will come out it.

[New Visayan Islands]

Once this will be all over, i want a bbc documentary cataloguing all the news about "Attack on 5G"
Or an hollywood movie, even better, "5G: 5 times terror"

Set to this introduction, no less.

[Valrifell]

Why is that good?

A little hardship goes a long way, maybe some good will come out it.

"It's a good thing, actually, that you lost everything and are homeless. It builds character"

[Loben The 2nd]

A little hardship goes a long way, maybe some good will come out it.

"It's a good thing, actually, that you lost everything and are homeless. It builds character"

Shit happens.

[San Lumen]

Why is that good?

A little hardship goes a long way, maybe some good will come out it.

Yeah the 1930s were such wonderful times

[Nobel Hobos 2]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s

Yeah that was OK. A polemic I can agree with.

[The East Marches II]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s

St. Louis Fed said the same thing a month ago. Thank God Pelosi blocked a UBI! There is no data to support further emergency measures or call back the House :^)

[Nobel Hobos 2]

"It's a good thing, actually, that you lost everything and are homeless. It builds character"

Shit happens.

Shit doesn't just happen. Some asshole does it.

[San Lumen]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s

Yeah that was OK. A polemic I can agree with.

He is a Nobel laureate therefore he does know what he’s talking about

[Valrifell]

Shit happens.

Shit doesn't just happen. Some asshole does it.

Wait why do I love this phrase.

[Valrifell]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s

St. Louis Fed said the same thing a month ago. Thank God Pelosi blocked a UBI! There is no data to support further emergency measures or call back the House :^)

You'd better be making Chuck and Nancy pay rent with all that time they spend in your head.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s

St. Louis Fed said the same thing a month ago.

Did you read Stiglitz? Or are you responding to San Lumen's very narrow summary of part of it?

Thank God Pelosi blocked a UBI! There is no data to support further emergency measures or call back the House :^)

There will be further emergency measures, if you mean spending.

[The East Marches II]

St. Louis Fed said the same thing a month ago. Thank God Pelosi blocked a UBI! There is no data to support further emergency measures or call back the House :^)

You'd better be making Chuck and Nancy pay rent with all that time they spend in your head.

No need, they'll be made to pay by an enraged electorate :^)

I hope you're excited for 2020. I sure am!

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Shit doesn't just happen. Some asshole does it.

Wait why do I love this phrase.

I don't claim it. I saw it on a bumper sticker once.

[The East Marches II]

St. Louis Fed said the same thing a month ago.

Did you read Stiglitz? Or are you responding to San Lumen's very narrow summary of part of it?

Thank God Pelosi blocked a UBI! There is no data to support further emergency measures or call back the House :^)

There will be further emergency measures, if you mean spending.

I was mocking Pelosi saying we did not need further measures a week or two ago. Regarding San Lumen obviously I read it, taking a doom sayer at his word is retarded. I think Mr. Stiglitz is being rather optimistic in light of Fed data. It should have been big name left leaning economist attacks Trump. It really wasn't news.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Yeah that was OK. A polemic I can agree with.

He is a Nobel laureate therefore he does know what he’s talking about

Nobel prize in Economics. He's a bit out of field. But people should read it for themselves before deciding if he knows what he's talking about.

[Salandriagado]

OK, so this one definitely is good news, but is going to need some explaining:

We have multiple virulence reducing RNA deletions confirmed in the virus. Now, these variants aren't going to magically solve the problem - they're all less able to spread than the variants that they're mutations of. However, this is a big deal for a few reasons:

1. Given how little testing we've done for these things, this strongly suggests that there are a lot of these kinds of deletions out there. That is: we're rolling the dice lots of times.
2. Deletions don't undo themselves: RNA (unlike DNA) simply has no mechanism for correcting for gene deletions (there isn't a second copy available to re-construct it from), so these deletions will hang around, and potentially stack with more such deletions. That is: these dice stack.

Those two combine to mean that the odds of what I'm going to say below aren't as tiny as you might thing.

3. None of these examples have any effect on immune response. That is: if you're immune to one, you're immune to all of them.
4. If we isolate a reliably non-lethal variant of the virus, we have a new exit strategy (other than natural herd immunity, vaccination, or (local) eradication): variolation. Given a version of the virus that consistently doesn't kill people (and preferably consistently doesn't make them significantly ill), we could intentionally spread it through the (low-risk) population, therefore getting herd immunity without ever having to have the lethal version of the virus spread.

Now, this isn't guaranteed by any means (it's honestly relatively unlikely, even given points 1 and 2), and there's essentially nothing that we can do to speed it up (other than making sure that we're checking the RNA of as many different virus samples as possible for deletions, so that we don't miss them when they do happen), but it's an extra set of dice to roll, along with all of the vaccine candidates.

There's also evidence that it's [url=https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.16.20037259v1]becoming less deadly over time.

[Valrifell]

You'd better be making Chuck and Nancy pay rent with all that time they spend in your head.

No need, they'll be made to pay by an enraged electorate :^)

I hope you're excited for 2020. I sure am!

Aw, that's cute. You think I have some attachment to Chuck and Nancy.