The 2019-2020 Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Pilipinas and Malaya]

A math based study has estimated the effectiveness of airports screening (using current thermal scans and other measures) to be failing to detect 63% of the infected travelers. (not peer reviewed yet, yet to be officially released)

(Image)

The study was done by CMMID (Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases) at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
They also built up a interactive airport screening effectiveness simulator.


The infected in incubation time being hard to detect at airports was already known, if this study will get reviewed as valid it could make it more clear how much containment measures need to work in advance.
With an incubation time of 6 days the virus is 6 days ahead of any containment based on sympthoms.

Oh no, that makes it much harder to actually and effectively quarantine anyone really.

[The New California Republic]

A math based study has estimated the effectiveness of airports screening (using current thermal scans and other measures) to be failing to detect 63% of the infected travelers. (not peer reviewed yet, yet to be officially released)

(Image)

It correlates with what I have been saying for the past several days, that current screening measures are woefully ineffective as a method of containment. When a containment method is worse than a coin toss in terms of likelihood of detection, then more radical screening is desperately needed.

[Pilipinas and Malaya]

A math based study has estimated the effectiveness of airports screening (using current thermal scans and other measures) to be failing to detect 63% of the infected travelers. (not peer reviewed yet, yet to be officially released)

(Image)

It correlates with what I have been saying for the past several days, that current screening measures are woefully ineffective as a method of containment. When a containment method is worse than a coin toss in terms of likelihood of detection, then more radical screening is desperately needed.

Better pull a Japan and seal off the country temporarily.

[Novus America]

A math based study has estimated the effectiveness of airports screening (using current thermal scans and other measures) to be failing to detect 63% of the infected travelers. (not peer reviewed yet, yet to be officially released)

(Image)

It correlates with what I have been saying for the past several days, that current screening measures are woefully ineffective as a method of containment. When a containment method is worse than a coin toss in terms of likelihood of detection, then more radical screening is desperately needed.

Well we cannot use symptom based screenings alone.
We need to suspend all nonessential, non governmental travel with the PRC (except for returning US nationals) and even returning US nationals subject to more intense screening, namely PCR blood tests plus a two week observation period/qurantine during which they would not be allowed to work outside of telework or allowed to use public transport.

[Thermodolia]

A math based study has estimated the effectiveness of airports screening (using current thermal scans and other measures) to be failing to detect 63% of the infected travelers. (not peer reviewed yet, yet to be officially released)

(Image)

The study was done by CMMID (Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases) at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
They also built up a interactive airport screening effectiveness simulator.


The infected in incubation time being hard to detect at airports was already known, if this study will get reviewed as valid it could make it more clear how much containment measures need to work in advance.
With an incubation time of 6 days the virus is 6 days ahead of any containment based on sympthoms.

Time to require at least 1 week of quarantine for anyone coming from asia

[Pilipinas and Malaya]

A math based study has estimated the effectiveness of airports screening (using current thermal scans and other measures) to be failing to detect 63% of the infected travelers. (not peer reviewed yet, yet to be officially released)

(Image)

The study was done by CMMID (Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases) at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
They also built up a interactive airport screening effectiveness simulator.


The infected in incubation time being hard to detect at airports was already known, if this study will get reviewed as valid it could make it more clear how much containment measures need to work in advance.
With an incubation time of 6 days the virus is 6 days ahead of any containment based on sympthoms.

Time to require at least 1 week of quarantine for anyone coming from asia

Ouch. That’s going to hurt way too much. China only will suffice.

[Imperial Joseon]

A math based study has estimated the effectiveness of airports screening (using current thermal scans and other measures) to be failing to detect 63% of the infected travelers. (not peer reviewed yet, yet to be officially released)

(Image)

The study was done by CMMID (Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases) at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
They also built up a interactive airport screening effectiveness simulator.


The infected in incubation time being hard to detect at airports was already known, if this study will get reviewed as valid it could make it more clear how much containment measures need to work in advance.
With an incubation time of 6 days the virus is 6 days ahead of any containment based on sympthoms.

Time to require at least 1 week of quarantine for anyone coming from asia

By the way, Mongolians and North Koreans aren't affected, because they completely bar foreigners from coming into their nations.

[Trollgaard]

Time to require at least 1 week of quarantine for anyone coming from asia

By the way, Mongolians and North Koreans aren't affected, because they completely bar foreigners from coming into their nations.

Mongolia doesn't...

[Satuga]

[

By the way, Mongolians and North Koreans aren't affected, because they completely bar foreigners from coming into their nations.

Well NK is suffering from mass malnutrition and other diseases from improper farming and such. So I think it's a fair trade lmao.

[Pilipinas and Malaya]

By the way, Mongolians and North Koreans aren't affected, because they completely bar foreigners from coming into their nations.

Mongolia doesn't...

They only preemptively closed their borders with China to prevent infection.

[Dar es Saalam]

Lets hope the countermeasures developed for SARS and MERS work on this variant as well.

China really needs to address the overcrowding and resulting sanitation nightmares. Maybe the world can send them the bill for this one? I am sure it would erase some trade deficits!

[New Visayan Islands]

Mongolia doesn't...

They only preemptively closed their borders with China to prevent infection.

And Russia?

[The New California Republic]

Lets hope the countermeasures developed for SARS and MERS work on this variant as well.

Such as? If you are referring to heat screenings at transport hubs then we were literally just talking about how they are ineffective against Corona, to the extent that a coin toss would be better at picking infected people out of a crowd.

[Dogmeat]

They only preemptively closed their borders with China to prevent infection.

And Russia?

When Russia starts being a hotbed of infection, then yes. But probably not worth the effort until then.

[Lord Dominator]

Edit: and yes, for thematic (and strategic) reasons, I did start it in China, and had symptoms by the time it started spreading (roughly).

[Thermodolia]

They only preemptively closed their borders with China to prevent infection.

And Russia?

Siberia is too sparsely populated for the virus to do anything

[Valentian Elysium]

(Image)

Edit: and yes, for thematic (and strategic) reasons, I did start it in China, and had symptoms by the time it started spreading (roughly).

Blimey, it even got Greenland

[Lord Dominator]

(Image)

Edit: and yes, for thematic (and strategic) reasons, I did start it in China, and had symptoms by the time it started spreading (roughly).

Blimey, it even got Greenland

Greenland was easy, Madagascar (and Iceland for some reason) was the problem this run around

[Pacomia]

First person-to-person transmission in the U.S. reported in Chicago- likely more to come.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51316915

And I thought we were safe. Damn.

[Major-Tom]

First person-to-person transmission in the U.S. reported in Chicago- likely more to come.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51316915

And I thought we were safe. Damn.

It was a spousal transmission, the issue is that the disease has an R-Naught of about two (for every one infected person, they're likely to infect two others). I don't think this will spiral out of control outside of China, but I could see it infecting a few hundred through the US.

It's a little more infectious than SARS and a little less deadly, SARS was stopped in it's tracks after about 10,000 total infections and 774 deaths if my memory serves me right, so I'm not ready to call this a pandemic in the making.

[Pacomia]

First person-to-person transmission in the U.S. reported in Chicago- likely more to come.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51316915

And I thought we were safe. Damn.

It was a spousal transmission, the issue is that the disease has an R-Naught of about two (for every one infected person, they're likely to infect two others). I don't think this will spiral out of control outside of China, but I could see it infecting a few hundred through the US.

The infected guy near me is still under isolation at the hospital, hopefully no transmission there. I could see Cali and maybe some eastern states getting a lot of infected, though.

[Major-Tom]

It was a spousal transmission, the issue is that the disease has an R-Naught of about two (for every one infected person, they're likely to infect two others). I don't think this will spiral out of control outside of China, but I could see it infecting a few hundred through the US.

The infected guy near me is still under isolation at the hospital, hopefully no transmission there. I could see Cali and maybe some eastern states getting a lot of infected, though.

We should all be mostly fine. Our government is testing people for the virus on the daily, many of whom are testing negative, others being quarantined as a proper precaution (even if it's unsure if they have it). Point is - there really aren't many people roaming the streets of the US carrying this virus.

[The New California Republic]

Coronavirus is declared global emergency by World Health Organization as outbreak continues to spread outside China

[Thermodolia]

First person-to-person transmission in the U.S. reported in Chicago- likely more to come.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51316915

And I thought we were safe. Damn.

It was a spousal transmission, the issue is that the disease has an R-Naught of about two (for every one infected person, they're likely to infect two others). I don't think this will spiral out of control outside of China, but I could see it infecting a few hundred through the US.

It's a little more infectious than SARS and a little less deadly, SARS was stopped in it's tracks after about 10,000 total infections and 774 deaths if my memory serves me right, so I'm not ready to call this a pandemic in the making.

The WHO is. They are now declaring a public health emergency

[Lost Memories]

The WHO conference has finished seconds ago, the livestream to rewatch it.

Lots of bowing to the "competence", "transparency" and "hard work" of China. It's a bit embarassing to see.

"China did such a great job handling this situation, no one should be worried"
"BUT WE DECLARE EMERGENCY"
"but this isn't a reason to stop trade with China"

basically