2020 US General Election Thread IV: The Battle Begins

[Nobel Hobos 2]

If an incumbent leaves before their term is up and it’s early in the year I don’t think it’s fair to leave the seat open for an entire year. In most states a special election is required

They're lucky. Here, the outgoing incumbent's party decides who takes over.

Not really. The House has a "special election" called a by-election. The Senate … actually I don't fucking know, it's too complicated. Do we recount?

EDIT: No, you're right for the Senate. The deceased or retired member's party chooses a replacement.

[San Lumen]

They're lucky. Here, the outgoing incumbent's party decides who takes over.

Not really. The House has a "special election" called a by-election. The Senate … actually I don't fucking know, it's too complicated. Do we recount?

It depends on the state. Most do gubernatorial appointment and a special election is held at the next general election

[Farnhamia]

So you don’t know special elections?

Nope, we don't get them in Illinois, the county party or parties get together and choose. We get them for Federal races, but that's all. My own State Senator's quitting to become President of Bradley University and he handpicked his successor for the party to choose. Normally, it's whoever comes second in the primary if there is one. If it's an independent, then the Governor makes the selection.

In Illinois? What's the going rate these days?

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Not really. The House has a "special election" called a by-election. The Senate … actually I don't fucking know, it's too complicated. Do we recount?

It depends on the state. Most do gubernatorial appointment and a special election is held at the next general election

Sorry, Shrill and I are talking about the Australian system.

Our Senate is a kind of running joke; I don't expect you to get it.

[Shrillland]

Nope, we don't get them in Illinois, the county party or parties get together and choose. We get them for Federal races, but that's all. My own State Senator's quitting to become President of Bradley University and he handpicked his successor for the party to choose. Normally, it's whoever comes second in the primary if there is one. If it's an independent, then the Governor makes the selection.

In Illinois? What's the going rate these days?

Sadly, not for sale since Pritzker's been in office. All Pritzker has on him is creative ways to avoid paying our notoriously high property taxes.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Not really. The House has a "special election" called a by-election. The Senate … actually I don't fucking know, it's too complicated. Do we recount?

It depends on the state. Most do gubernatorial appointment and a special election is held at the next general election

I don't agree with that, but I guess for Senate it's pretty common for Governor and US Senator to be the same party?

[Farnhamia]

It depends on the state. Most do gubernatorial appointment and a special election is held at the next general election

Sorry, Shrill and I are talking about the Australian system.

Our Senate is a kind of running joke; I don't expect you to get it.

In the US ELECTION THREAD? *summons Guards* To the dungeon! No news until a years from now!

[Shrillland]

It depends on the state. Most do gubernatorial appointment and a special election is held at the next general election

I don't agree with that, but I guess for Senate it's pretty common for Governor and US Senator to be the same party?

Usually, even if the Governor's from an opposite party, the most they'll do is appoint an independent. It's exceedingly rare, at least in recent years, for a Republican Governor to choose a Republican if a Democrat held it originally, for example.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Sorry, Shrill and I are talking about the Australian system.

Our Senate is a kind of running joke; I don't expect you to get it.

In the US ELECTION THREAD? *summons Guards* To the dungeon! No news until a years from now!

No news? I have to cross my fingers and toes and wait for Inauguration Day?

Australian Senate was initially modelled on the US one very closely: equal representation of each state, and staggered terms (2 classes instead of 3). But it began to differ significantly when we did away with block voting (for proportional within each state delegation) and as the number of Senators per state increased we got something quite European. The House is still a copy of UK which is very similar to US.

[Shrillland]

In the US ELECTION THREAD? *summons Guards* To the dungeon! No news until a years from now!

No news? I have to cross my fingers and toes and wait for Inauguration Day?

Australian Senate was initially modelled on the US one very closely: equal representation of each state, and staggered terms (2 classes instead of 3). But it began to differ significantly when we did away with block voting (for proportional within each state delegation) and as the number of Senators per state increased we got something quite European. The House is still a copy of UK which is very similar to US.

Except that we've only just started embracing RCV while you've had it for over a century.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

No news? I have to cross my fingers and toes and wait for Inauguration Day?

Australian Senate was initially modelled on the US one very closely: equal representation of each state, and staggered terms (2 classes instead of 3). But it began to differ significantly when we did away with block voting (for proportional within each state delegation) and as the number of Senators per state increased we got something quite European. The House is still a copy of UK which is very similar to US.

Except that we've only just started embracing RCV while you've had it for over a century.

It makes remarkably little difference in the House though. The end result is almost the same as FPTP and that's because single offices are being filled.

[Farnhamia]

In the US ELECTION THREAD? *summons Guards* To the dungeon! No news until a years from now!

No news? I have to cross my fingers and toes and wait for Inauguration Day?

Australian Senate was initially modelled on the US one very closely: equal representation of each state, and staggered terms (2 classes instead of 3). But it began to differ significantly when we did away with block voting (for proportional within each state delegation) and as the number of Senators per state increased we got something quite European. The House is still a copy of UK which is very similar to US.

Keep talking about the Australian system of government and you'll be aiting until the inauguration after the next one.

[Czechostan]

I'm legit considering emailing Trump's campaign team and pretending to be a huge fan so they'll pass along some of my speech ideas to the president. Ideas such as:

•All of human history has been leading up to a trump presidency
•There doesn't need to be another election because trump is perfect
•Trump is the Roman God Mars and is superior to Abraham God
•Threatening to set up gulags in america for his opponents
•The first person to criticize trump is the big dumb
•The trump baby blimp was the worst creation in history
•The 2016 election held more significance than the pearl harbor attacks
•Kanye West will be the new vice president
•Free Yeezus albums will be handed out at the election night party
•Trump will make his daily life in the white house a TV series called "celebrity a president."
•Ted Cruz's wife did Tiananmen Square
•Ted Cruz is the worst thing to come out of Canada since incels

It's a long shot but maybe it could work

It would be hilarious if it actually did

•Proclaim "God told me to invade the Middle East."
Oh wait, Bush beat him to that.

[Cisairse]

At this point the main reason I want Warren or Sanders to win the presidency isn't because I have any faith that they could pass their policy objectives - I just want them to help normalize the left-wing idea set so it isn't considered as radical in the future.

[San Lumen]

At this point the main reason I want Warren or Sanders to win the presidency isn't because I have any faith that they could pass their policy objectives - I just want them to help normalize the left-wing idea set so it isn't considered as radical in the future.

I’d rather not have huge losses in 2022

[United States of Devonta]

In

[Cisairse]

In

I could not agree more, good sir.

[San Lumen]

In

Huh?

[The Sherpa Empire]

In

Huh?

Maybe he's announcing his candidacy to run for president. Can't let the field get too small, right?

[Aclion]

https://www.270towin.com/maps/7DjWZ

TLDR I don't expect much to change from 2016, people are pretty well entrenched. I do however expect many Virginians to use the 2020 election as a way to express their displeasure at their state government, meaning it will likely flip.

[Shrillland]

(Image)https://www.270towin.com/maps/7DjWZ

TLDR I don't expect much to change from 2016, people are pretty well entrenched. I do however expect many Virginians to use the 2020 election as a way to express their displeasure at their state government, meaning it will likely flip.

...I don't think that Virginia's flipping red any time soon myself.

[Telconi]

(Image)https://www.270towin.com/maps/7DjWZ

TLDR I don't expect much to change from 2016, people are pretty well entrenched. I do however expect many Virginians to use the 2020 election as a way to express their displeasure at their state government, meaning it will likely flip.

I think Virginia flipping is unlikely.

[United States of Devonta]

In

Huh?

Sorry, just pinning this to my list of forums. I know they have a bookmark feature but I don't like it lol

[Zurkerx]

Now we're getting more polls, two from Iowa:

Sanders leads Biden by 9 points in Iowa. The break down:

Sander 30%; Biden 21%; Klobuchar 13%; Warren 11%; Buttigieg 10%. I'm surprised with Kloubhcar's numbers: she has been around 6-8%, but Buttigieg's surprises me more: He's fifth in this poll, which most other polls don't show. This is an Emerson Poll.

Yet, this poll differs from this one, which shows Biden leading in Iowa and Buttigieg polling where he has been. The break down:

Biden 25%; Sanders 19%; Buttigieg 18%; Warren 13%. No one else hit double digits. So, two polls with two different results. However, it seems Warren is consistent and has stagnated or declined. This is a Suffolk Poll. Both polls interviewed between 450-500 Likely Caucus Goers; MOE is 4.4-4.6%.

Needless to say, polls are showing Sanders leading but with mix results: Biden gets a few there and there.

[Cisairse]

Now we're getting more polls, two from Iowa:

Sanders leads Biden by 9 points in Iowa. The break down:

Sander 30%; Biden 21%; Klobuchar 13%; Warren 11%; Buttigieg 10%. I'm surprised with Kloubhcar's numbers: she has been around 6-8%, but Buttigieg's surprises me more: He's fifth in this poll, which most other polls don't show. This is an Emerson Poll.

Yet, this poll differs from this one, which shows Biden leading in Iowa and Buttigieg polling where he has been. The break down:

Biden 25%; Sanders 19%; Buttigieg 18%; Warren 13%. No one else hit double digits. So, two polls with two different results. However, it seems Warren is consistent and has stagnated or declined. This is a Suffolk Poll. Both polls interviewed between 450-500 Likely Caucus Goers; MOE is 4.4-4.6%.

Needless to say, polls are showing Sanders leading but with mix results: Biden gets a few there and there.

Brokered convention, here we come.