What do you see?
Sandy nothingness whilst Men At Work's "Down Under" plays.
No, not that Terra Australis Maximus, the one that was named as such due to the catographical ignorance of the 19th Century, we're talking about the Terra Australis Maximus- the land at the bottom of the world, by which I mean the Anti-Great Bear (yes, that's actually what the continent's name means in Ancient Greek)
Now what do you see? Cold nothing with penguins. If you haven't figured it out already, I'm talking about Antarctica. Oh you did know. How did you... oh you read the title. Damn!
Pathetic attempt at humour aside, yes, Antarctic means Anti-Great Bear. The Ancient Greeks, who theorised the existance of the Arctic and the Antarctic named the former "bear" named after the constilations of the "big bear" and "little bear", which they thought looked like a bear. Antartica was therefore called "anti-bear" as it's in the opposite direction of the bear. For millenia, people theorised the existance of a giant landmass at the Southern Pole, or "Terra Australis". The first European explorers to the Great Southern Land (the kangaroo one) believed that the contient was attached to Antarctica (which is where the name "Australia" comes from).
But this thread isn't about the etymology of contients. I made you read all that because I thought it would be funny to make you read all that crap **runs away before you can throw
tomatoes**What this thread is actually about is the future of Antarctica. Let's get into the actual discussion, for real this time. Yes I mean it. "Yea, sure you are" Shut up! Anyways, Did you know that countries claim Antrctica? 9 of them actually- The USA, the UK, Australia, Norway, the USSR (now Russia), Argentina, Chili, New Zealand and France
See:
Now I know what you're thinking- Russia and the USA aren't on that map, and Argntina, Chili and the UK's claims seem to be in the same spot. Yep, which brings us to the crux of the issue- get it? Crux- because that's another name for the Southern Cross constilation located at true south? Get it? **Crickets chirp**
In the 1940's, everyone wanted a slice of Antarctica, so they decided to sign the Antarctic Treaty to make the land disputes someone else's problem- by someone else, they of coarse, mean their decendants. They actual signatories will be watching the impending shitstorm from the afterlife, probably with a giant bowl of popcorn. So basically, the treaty said that 7 countries, Argentina, Chili, the UK, Australia, New Zeland, Norway and France get to make claims, whilst there is an unclaimed part, and the USA and Russia hold, in perpetuity (or until the treaty expires) the right to make a claim whenever they want. These claims mean nothing, as Antarctica belongs to all humanity, and no country can assert their soverignty over their claim. Further, military activity is banned from the continent. Further, many nations have scientific research bases in the claims of others (e.g. China has a scientific base in Australia's claim). And America plonked their base right on the South Pole, where all the claims meet. So great, Antarctica "belongs to everyone, and all the scientists grab hands and sing Koombaya"- ha, no! Well okay, sort of- until 2048, when the treaty expires and there's an impeding shitstorm. Well, what do you mean by sort of? Remember how Argentina and Chili have overlapping claims, well, in the 1970's Argentina found a loophole to the anti-soverignty rule by sending pregnant women to give birth there- I'm serious. Chili one upped them by sending newly weds to concieve and give birth there- leading to a total of 10 known births on the continent. I cannot confirm how true this is, but apparently, one country has already found a loophole to the anti-military section of the treaty, if you guess who, you get a banana- yes, yes, it's America. Further, there have been conflicts in the past. China errected their flag in Australia's claim, and Japan has repeatedly mined in Australia's Antarctic Waters, which remain part of Australia's Exclusive Economic Zone (giving her the 3rd largest EEZ). However, Japan doesn't recognise this. So, finally, after an hour an and half of typing, on my phone, with no breaks, we get to the Crux of the thread, get it, crux, because... "that joke wasn't funny the first time, why would it be funny now?" Shut up! Anyways, the crux of the thread, what do you think is the future of Antarctica?
Given the expiration of the mining ban with the expiration of the treaty- the preciois minerals, tourism potential, strategic military position, difficult terrain for troops to train in, and the abundance of fresh water (albeit melted), I believe there will be a shit storm over Antarctica. There might even be another world war, or atleast another cold war. In my beliefe, given that she already claims 40% of the continent (give or take), despite her small size, Australia will end up with a claim over Antarctica, even if only a little one. If China continues her economic and military growth, she'll definately end up with some land there, the USA, if still the world's still the world's superpowr, will definately end up with a claim. I'm not sure if Russia's still interested but if she is, I can see her ending up with on. As for the the overlapping nations, I reacon there may be a giant war between Argentina and Chili, leaving the UK to regret give her claim to Australia and NZ. Hopefully that doesn't hinder their relationships. I also believe that New Zealand will keep her claim. As the vast majority of Antarctic expoditions start from Christchurch, I definately believe that this will give her a home ground advantage. France's claim might be absorbed by the EU, (if the EU still exists, and France is still a member, that is). I can't say exactly for sure what will happen, but I can envision a shitstorm. If ETOPS will allow for twin trans-Antarctic flights by then, or if tris or quads find a new market flying over Antarctica, (and it's, in my opinion, quite likely), then it would be interesting to see what impact such flights have over the conflicts, and what impact the conflicts have over the flights (If you don't know what I'm talking about with quads, twins, and ETOPS, the click spoiler, don't click spoiler if you're an uneasy flyer)
What do you guys think will happen?
"I guessed America, where's my banana?"'- urrghh, here you go, happy? Why did I do this? This is gonna bankrupt me
TL; DR
What do you think will happen when the Antarctic treaty expires? I think it'll be a big shit storm, maybe even another world war. Now why in the hell did I spend an hour and a half, non-stop typing this whole thing on my phone, if noone was gonna read it? **Goes and questions all my life choices**
