Washington 2017: The U.S. Political RP [CLOSED] OOC Pt. XI

[Sanabel]

That reminds me, I don't think Sinclair will be speaking at the rally today.

[Sanabel]

TNS, what's your analysis on the Dems

[Dentali]

Stansky is going to New Hampshire.

Could he be running for President in 2020?

He already campaigned in Iowa

[Dentali]

Potential 2020 Democratic Primary:

California Congressman Donald Johnson
Florida Governor Esperanza Huerta
Former California Governor Ray Ramirez
Illinois Congresswoman Nicole Smith
Illinois Senator Thomas Brady
Maine Governor Claudia Patton
Maryland Senator Anthony Conti
Massachusetts Senator Jason Samara
Trenton Mayor Joh Stansky
United States Attorney General Alicia Florrick
Virginia Governor Moses Clearwater

Samara is flattered but has no intention of running for president till his kids are at least in college

[Dentali]

Potential 2020 Democratic Primary:

California Congressman Donald Johnson
Florida Governor Esperanza Huerta
Former California Governor Ray Ramirez
Illinois Congresswoman Nicole Smith
Illinois Senator Thomas Brady
Maine Governor Claudia Patton
Maryland Senator Anthony Conti
Massachusetts Senator Jason Samara
Trenton Mayor Joh Stansky
United States Attorney General Alicia Florrick
Virginia Governor Moses Clearwater

I’d put my money on Huerta, Patton, Samara, or Clearwater

Left out Vilseck

[Uttland]

Who's ready for fun?
pls don't burn everything

[Tallahassee News Station]

That reminds me, I don't think Sinclair will be speaking at the rally today.

Hmm, that could have some interesting repercussions, is he ditching or just marching w/o speaking?

[Uttland]

That reminds me, I don't think Sinclair will be speaking at the rally today.

As long as he shows up, that'll be great.

[Tallahassee News Station]

Who's ready for fun?
pls don't burn everything

Is the plan to sync it up with Am's rally OOC?

[Uttland]

Who's ready for fun?
pls don't burn everything

Is the plan to sync it up with Am's rally OOC?

Am's rally?

[Dentali]

Here are some of my ramblings

Florida Governor Esperanza Huerta
-Obvious Frontrunner, as huge name recognition, strong Hispanic support, and massive distance from the DNC debacle. That is not to say that she does not have any downsides. She clearly has made an enemy of the establishment which means that there is a strong possibility that one candidate would be able to get enough of the "Not Huerta" vote to win. 25-30% she takes it. Conditionally good VP depending on the Dem Nominee, though she may not take it.

Her biggest issues are that she is far too business friendly for the dem party right now, additionally she has 0 connections outside Florida and 0 interest in making them (i know i have tried). She is isolated

Massachusetts Senator Jason Samara
-Good name recognition, has not angered the establishment to the point where they would muster an "Anybody but Samara" campaign. Strong black credentials, definitely appeals more to the liberal wing of the party. However, he has. Excellent VP candidate.

0 interest in running

Illinois Congresswoman Nicole Smith
-Probably going to be De Nieto's preferred candidate in the race. The strong backing of the House Democrats would lead to a good start in the race. However, she is emotionally challenged and may breakdown during the campaign. Excellent VP candidate.

She has no experience or accomplishments, she is not well known or popular, she has never won a statewide race and only won due to the deep blue nature of her district

United States Attorney General Alicia Florrick
-Strong name recognition, however, is strongly connected to the Reed admin, which looks like it is about to careen off a cliff. Poor VP candidate.

High ceiling and low floor candidate, a well timed resignation could make her a rockstar

Virginia Governor Moses Clearwater
-Strong black support where is known, little name recognition. Generally moderate and inoffensive. Good VP pick.

Looking at the electoral map of the primary he is set to sweep the south and the black vote forming a solid block of support while everyone else fights for the same areas, he will remain unchallenged.

[Uttland]

I really hope someone picks up the irony of Hookstraten paraphrasing William F. Buckley in the context of defending the South/the Confederacy.

[Tallahassee News Station]

Is the plan to sync it up with Am's rally OOC?

Am's rally?

The big tea party rally in Sheldon, Am+Prej+Ransom+Harr+Moor are all going there

[Uttland]

Am's rally?

The big tea party rally in Sheldon, Am+Prej+Ransom+Harr+Moor are all going there

I suppose so, I never coordinated with Prolieum or those people.

[Tallahassee News Station]

Smith isn't really an unknown, not all her name recognition is actually good but she's gotten in headlines between the FLOTUS fight/controversy, equality march controversy and Not a punchline movement attempt, +general pickup for coverage for a young minority woman coming to Congress, and she should be getting the Prog caucus chair IC

She's got problems w/youth and semi limited connections with other pols, plus being a kinda unstable and possible semi controversial candidate, but she's a viable runner in 2020

Jared's got some major plans for 2020/leading to 2020 but unfortunately they need Vel (and some IC stuff advancing)

[Tallahassee News Station]

The big tea party rally in Sheldon, Am+Prej+Ransom+Harr+Moor are all going there

I suppose so, I never coordinated with Prolieum or those people.

Shouldn't really matter, Norfolk's already started and I don't think we need exact timing (or have it IC)

[Dentali]

Best case scenario for a highly competitive GOP primary would be Reed not running because of a big time popularity collapse. Hurts Havich and makes some other candidates possible

I could see Reed having a hgh popularity and still not running again, i dont think he likes the job and he might bow out in support of limited government power or something

Sinclair and Yang are the big ones to benefit from that. They don't really have a good path to the nomination in any of the other Reed doesn't run scenarios but both were established anti Prez which would be a bonus here. I think Sinclair's got the better odds here with a more natural base and a demo profile+background that works better in a GOP primary.

Time to confess i am the one that made the draft yang ad from awhile back, im a big fan of hers, but i think she needs more time to develop

Amaras is the conventionally strongest with a war chest premade a wing of the party already mostly locked in and a big time home field advantage in Iowa. He's in a pretty good spot to still run as an outsider if Reed crashes+burns and coming down to him vs an establishment guy is pretty likely

I dont know if Amaras would actually want to run, though he is scary strong with the hard right

Even with a lousy Reed Prez and we assume he got caught in the fall Havich is still a pretty strong candidate from position+experience+geography without any major challengers in the NE (Fowler could try, Brennan? But not a lot of traction). Has auto name rec and establishment friendly, he's got good odds of making it to the end.

Fowler wont run, at least not to win but MAYBE to prove a point... Havich will be tough to beat and he will sweep the NE in the primary

Mondale definitely seems ambitious. Pretty decent candidate on paper, female gov with solid record from a Midwest swing state with foreign and domestic experience and only semiconnecred with Reed. UN controversy probably won't hit her too hard but she could end up being a paper tiger.

Simon Denisevich 100% pushed her into the UN ambassadorship because he wants her to run for president. If Reed indicates to Simon he wont run in 2020, Simon will tell Mondale immediately even before its public and tell her to get ready.

[Uttland]

If Reed bows out, I will certainly either Lane or, if I’m feeling masochistic, Lee. Most likely former, considering she’s in a much better position.

[Sanabel]

That reminds me, I don't think Sinclair will be speaking at the rally today.

Hmm, that could have some interesting repercussions, is he ditching or just marching w/o speaking?

Marching. Just not speaking.

[Sanabel]

Best case scenario for a highly competitive GOP primary would be Reed not running because of a big time popularity collapse. Hurts Havich and makes some other candidates possible

I could see Reed having a hgh popularity and still not running again, i dont think he likes the job and he might bow out in support of limited government power or something

Sinclair and Yang are the big ones to benefit from that. They don't really have a good path to the nomination in any of the other Reed doesn't run scenarios but both were established anti Prez which would be a bonus here. I think Sinclair's got the better odds here with a more natural base and a demo profile+background that works better in a GOP primary.

Time to confess i am the one that made the draft yang ad from awhile back, im a big fan of hers, but i think she needs more time to develop

Amaras is the conventionally strongest with a war chest premade a wing of the party already mostly locked in and a big time home field advantage in Iowa. He's in a pretty good spot to still run as an outsider if Reed crashes+burns and coming down to him vs an establishment guy is pretty likely

I dont know if Amaras would actually want to run, though he is scary strong with the hard right

Even with a lousy Reed Prez and we assume he got caught in the fall Havich is still a pretty strong candidate from position+experience+geography without any major challengers in the NE (Fowler could try, Brennan? But not a lot of traction). Has auto name rec and establishment friendly, he's got good odds of making it to the end.

Fowler wont run, at least not to win but MAYBE to prove a point... Havich will be tough to beat and he will sweep the NE in the primary

Mondale definitely seems ambitious. Pretty decent candidate on paper, female gov with solid record from a Midwest swing state with foreign and domestic experience and only semiconnecred with Reed. UN controversy probably won't hit her too hard but she could end up being a paper tiger.

Simon Denisevich 100% pushed her into the UN ambassadorship because he wants her to run for president. If Reed indicates to Simon he wont run in 2020, Simon will tell Mondale immediately even before its public and tell her to get ready.

Harrington only runs if Amaras does not.

[Tallahassee News Station]

I'm just rng for the call/location Fowler makes

[Tallahassee News Station]

Best case scenario for a highly competitive GOP primary would be Reed not running because of a big time popularity collapse. Hurts Havich and makes some other candidates possible

I could see Reed having a hgh popularity and still not running again, i dont think he likes the job and he might bow out in support of limited government power or something

Sinclair and Yang are the big ones to benefit from that. They don't really have a good path to the nomination in any of the other Reed doesn't run scenarios but both were established anti Prez which would be a bonus here. I think Sinclair's got the better odds here with a more natural base and a demo profile+background that works better in a GOP primary.

Time to confess i am the one that made the draft yang ad from awhile back, im a big fan of hers, but i think she needs more time to develop

Amaras is the conventionally strongest with a war chest premade a wing of the party already mostly locked in and a big time home field advantage in Iowa. He's in a pretty good spot to still run as an outsider if Reed crashes+burns and coming down to him vs an establishment guy is pretty likely

I dont know if Amaras would actually want to run, though he is scary strong with the hard right

Even with a lousy Reed Prez and we assume he got caught in the fall Havich is still a pretty strong candidate from position+experience+geography without any major challengers in the NE (Fowler could try, Brennan? But not a lot of traction). Has auto name rec and establishment friendly, he's got good odds of making it to the end.

Fowler wont run, at least not to win but MAYBE to prove a point... Havich will be tough to beat and he will sweep the NE in the primary

Mondale definitely seems ambitious. Pretty decent candidate on paper, female gov with solid record from a Midwest swing state with foreign and domestic experience and only semiconnecred with Reed. UN controversy probably won't hit her too hard but she could end up being a paper tiger.

Simon Denisevich 100% pushed her into the UN ambassadorship because he wants her to run for president. If Reed indicates to Simon he wont run in 2020, Simon will tell Mondale immediately even before its public and tell her to get ready.

Harrington only runs if Amaras does not.

If it is her vs Amaras she's still decent but not as strong. SoCal is a good early primary state but not as important as Iowa, she has pretty good base credentials but not the name rec/connections he's got w/the movement or the war chest, she seems like she might be a decent debater and geography might help her vs Sincl and/or Kramer in the south which is her best draw, might have a gender gap to deal with

[Tallahassee News Station]

Harrington only runs if Amaras does not.

If it is her vs Amaras she's still decent but not as strong. SoCal is a good early primary state but not as important as Iowa, she has pretty good base credentials but not the name rec/connections he's got w/the movement or the war chest, she seems like she might be a decent debater and geography might help her vs Sincl and/or Kramer in the south which is her best draw, might have a gender gap to deal with

Vs meaning her running instead of him in that lane

[Tallahassee News Station]

[quote="Dentali";p="35943573"]

Best case scenario for a highly competitive GOP primary would be Reed not running because of a big time popularity collapse. Hurts Havich and makes some other candidates possible

I could see Reed having a hgh popularity and still not running again, i dont think he likes the job and he might bow out in support of limited government power or something[/box]

Oh that's definitely an option, I was just thinking of an optimal scenario for a more free for all primary. Popular Reed makes Havich much stronger (unless that blew up) and pretty much kills Yang+Sinclairs path to the nom. Would probably quickly narrow down to an Am vs Hav fight

[Sanabel]

Harrington only runs if Amaras does not.

If it is her vs Amaras she's still decent but not as strong. SoCal is a good early primary state but not as important as Iowa, she has pretty good base credentials but not the name rec/connections he's got w/the movement or the war chest, she seems like she might be a decent debater and geography might help her vs Sincl and/or Kramer in the south which is her best draw, might have a gender gap to deal with

She could still be viable in Iowa thanks to her connection to Amaras and her strength with Evangelicals.

She also could be a decent VP option, especially for someone like Amaras.