US Midterm Elections Megathread III: Hitting The Wall

[Thermodolia]

McSally still has the average lead in polls in Arizona, whilst I'm not super confident in it I kinda think the GOP is gonna hold Arizona.

Eh I’m not sure about that. The last poll has a pretty heavy republican bent to it so I’d take it with a grain of salt. That last poll is the only thing that’s given her a lead average wise

[Thermodolia]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... ca4a557551

Interesting article by the WaPo

[Shrillland]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/05/possible-scenarios-election-day-what-theyd-mean/?utm_term=.d9ca4a557551

Interesting article by the WaPo

I think 1 and 2 combined are the most likely. A Democratic House and a tight Senate.

[Liriena]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/05/possible-scenarios-election-day-what-theyd-mean/?utm_term=.d9ca4a557551

Interesting article by the WaPo

I think 1 and 2 combined are the most likely. A Democratic House and a tight Senate.

Most plausible outcome, barring substantial polling and forecasting errors.

[Thermodolia]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/05/possible-scenarios-election-day-what-theyd-mean/?utm_term=.d9ca4a557551

Interesting article by the WaPo

I think 1 and 2 combined are the most likely. A Democratic House and a tight Senate.

I agree with that

[Thermodolia]

I think 1 and 2 combined are the most likely. A Democratic House and a tight Senate.

Most plausible outcome, barring substantial polling and forecasting errors.

Hopefully all errors are in the Democrats favor

[Washington Resistance Army]

Most plausible outcome, barring substantial polling and forecasting errors.

Hopefully all errors are in the Democrats favor

Who are you and what did you do with the real Thermodolia?

[Thermodolia]

Hopefully all errors are in the Democrats favor

Who are you and what did you do with the real Thermodolia?

Chaos. Maximum chaos

[Valgora]

Hopefully all errors are in the Democrats favor

Who are you and what did you do with the real Thermodolia?

Maybe he just wants the number of Democrat to Republican politicians to be as close to 50-50 as possible for when we launch them into the Sun with a cannon.

[Thermodolia]

Who are you and what did you do with the real Thermodolia?

Maybe he just wants the number of Democrat to Republican politicians to be as close to 50-50 as possible for when we launch them into the Sun with a cannon.

I was thinking more of a Trident Missile but a cannon works too

[Valgora]

Maybe he just wants the number of Democrat to Republican politicians to be as close to 50-50 as possible for when we launch them into the Sun with a cannon.

I was thinking more of a Trident Missile but a cannon works too

What if we launched a Trident Missile out of a cannon so when it gets into space the engines start?

[Thermodolia]

I was thinking more of a Trident Missile but a cannon works too

What if we launched a Trident Missile out of a cannon so when it gets into space the engines start?

Sounds great

[Major-Tom]

Maybe he just wants the number of Democrat to Republican politicians to be as close to 50-50 as possible for when we launch them into the Sun with a cannon.

I was thinking more of a Trident Missile but a cannon works too

Trident, you say?.

[Corrian]

It is now after midnight EST. Election Day has begun, so vote! Vote, you bastards! Woe betide you if you don't, plagues of scorpions and famine upon your houses if you don't vote!(not really.)

Polls will close or votes will be counted at(all times EST)
18:00: Indiana EST, Kentucky EST
19:00: Florida EST, Georgia, Indiana CST, Kentucky CST, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia,
19:30: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
20:00: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida CST, Illinois, Kansas CST, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan EST, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota CST, Tennessee, Texas CST
20:30: Arkansas
21:00: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas MST, Louisiana, Michigan CST, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota MST, Texas MST, Wisconsin, Wyoming
22:00: Idaho MST, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota CST, Oregon MST, Utah
23:00: California, Hawaii, Idaho PST, North Dakota MST, Oregon PST, Washington
24:00: Alaska AKST
01:00 Wednesday: Alaska HAST

Holy shit our polls close at 11 here? Geez.

I mean, polls here tend to be "Drop off ballot at ballot box", but yeah.

[Corrian]

I kind of just want it to be a 50-50 split to see what kind of new insanity that adds to our political landscape.

[Page]

I kind of just want it to be a 50-50 split to see what kind of new insanity that adds to our political landscape.

A 50 - 50 split in the Senate means Pence breaks ties and the Republicans win, unless Manchin is still around in which case Pence won't even need to bother, cause he'll vote with the Republicans like he always does. Either way, Republicans win.

IMO the only way to have a Democratic majority in the Senate strong enough to prevent Trump's nominees from getting through, it would have to be minimum a 53 - 47 majority to account for Republican infiltrators who are "officially" Democrats - and that isn't happening this year.

[Corrian]

I kind of just want it to be a 50-50 split to see what kind of new insanity that adds to our political landscape.

A 50 - 50 split in the Senate means Pence breaks ties and the Republicans win, unless Manchin is still around in which case Pence won't even need to bother, cause he'll vote with the Republicans like he always does. Either way, Republicans win.

IMO the only way to have a Democratic majority in the Senate strong enough to prevent Trump's nominees from getting through, it would have to be minimum a 53 - 47 majority to account for Republican infiltrators who are "officially" Democrats - and that isn't happening this year.

He doesn't "Always vote with Republicans". More so than most, but not always.

And 50-50 split would still lead to an interesting mix if they push just one person to flip.

[Western Vale Confederacy]

Yeah, I guess my money is on Democrat house and Republican senate, it's logical enough.

It's gonna be political deadlock boogaloo for the next two years though.

[Page]

A 50 - 50 split in the Senate means Pence breaks ties and the Republicans win, unless Manchin is still around in which case Pence won't even need to bother, cause he'll vote with the Republicans like he always does. Either way, Republicans win.

IMO the only way to have a Democratic majority in the Senate strong enough to prevent Trump's nominees from getting through, it would have to be minimum a 53 - 47 majority to account for Republican infiltrators who are "officially" Democrats - and that isn't happening this year.

He doesn't "Always vote with Republicans". More so than most, but not always.

And 50-50 split would still lead to an interesting mix if they push just one person to flip.

I could sift through Manchin's voting record and find out just how often he votes with the Republicans, but instead I will say: If a doctor lost one of every five patients or a pilot crashed every one of twenty planes, you wouldn't want these people to be doctors or pilots. Congress is one of those careers where consistency matters.

The Republicans are a lot better at playing the game. They whip the hell out of their people in Congress, they whip their votes with a cat o' nine tails with rattlesnake fangs on the end. You'll notice not a single Republican voted for Obamacare despite the fact that the bill was tailor made to be "bipartisan", the individual mandate being a conservative idea from Newt Gingrich's House. You'll notice that not a single Republican budged on blocking Merrick Garland from even having a hearing because they decided a President who still had a year in office shouldn't be able to put forward nominees, an imaginary "rule" from nowhere that all Senate Republicans complied with.

It's long past time that the Democrats adopt the Republicans' techniques to make sure everyone in the party does what they're supposed to do. Democrats have better ideas than the Republicans, but the Democrats suck at playing politics.

[Petrasylvania]

He doesn't "Always vote with Republicans". More so than most, but not always.

And 50-50 split would still lead to an interesting mix if they push just one person to flip.

I could sift through Manchin's voting record and find out just how often he votes with the Republicans, but instead I will say: If a doctor lost one of every five patients or a pilot crashed every one of twenty planes, you wouldn't want these people to be doctors or pilots. Congress is one of those careers where consistency matters.

The Republicans are a lot better at playing the game. They whip the hell out of their people in Congress, they whip their votes with a cat o' nine tails with rattlesnake fangs on the end. You'll notice not a single Republican voted for Obamacare despite the fact that the bill was tailor made to be "bipartisan", the individual mandate being a conservative idea from Newt Gingrich's House. You'll notice that not a single Republican budged on blocking Merrick Garland from even having a hearing because they decided a President who still had a year in office shouldn't be able to put forward nominees, an imaginary "rule" from nowhere that all Senate Republicans complied with.

It's long past time that the Democrats adopt the Republicans' techniques to make sure everyone in the party does what they're supposed to do. Democrats have better ideas than the Republicans, but the Democrats suck at playing politics.

Most Blue Dogs found out how little the Republicans valued them given a chance to replace them with one of their own. How Manchin hasn't met the same party traitor's fate yet is beyond me.

[Page]

It's gonna be political deadlock boogaloo for the next two years though.

Hooray for deadlock! Not even sarcastic, I am literally happy for deadlock. It's like a tumor going into remission - we're not cured and that thing is going to come back twice as big in a little while, but for now, it won't be doing anymore damage.

[Thermodolia]

A 50 - 50 split in the Senate means Pence breaks ties and the Republicans win, unless Manchin is still around in which case Pence won't even need to bother, cause he'll vote with the Republicans like he always does. Either way, Republicans win.

IMO the only way to have a Democratic majority in the Senate strong enough to prevent Trump's nominees from getting through, it would have to be minimum a 53 - 47 majority to account for Republican infiltrators who are "officially" Democrats - and that isn't happening this year.

He doesn't "Always vote with Republicans". More so than most, but not always.

And 50-50 split would still lead to an interesting mix if they push just one person to flip.

IIRC he votes about 60% of the time with the democrats.

[Washington Resistance Army]

It's gonna be political deadlock boogaloo for the next two years though.

Hooray for deadlock! Not even sarcastic, I am literally happy for deadlock. It's like a tumor going into remission - we're not cured and that thing is going to come back twice as big in a little while, but for now, it won't be doing anymore damage.

One could argue it does more damage when nothing is getting done.

[Valgora]

Yeah, I guess my money is on Democrat house and Republican senate, it's logical enough.

It's gonna be political deadlock boogaloo for the next two years though.

Not like much was going to change anyways.

[Kartofian]

He doesn't "Always vote with Republicans". More so than most, but not always.

And 50-50 split would still lead to an interesting mix if they push just one person to flip.

IIRC he votes about 60% of the time with the democrats.

Nope
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/joe-manchin-iii/
Trump score
How often Manchin votes in line with Trump's position -- 60.8%

Edit: got confused