NFL Thread v2: The 2020 NFL Season!

by **Ranoria** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:01 am

Jerzylvania wrote:
Ranoria wrote:In my opinion, not only that, but JJ Watt is due for a game against the Pats. I'm always hyped to see him go after Brady, because Brady, in my opinion, is fine until you move him from his spot (Goff's the same way, but Brady is certainly better under pressure), and Clowney is healthy.

Texans are 1-9 all time vs Pats with the lone win coming at Houston. I'd love to see the Pats lose their home opener, but with that said, i don't expect it.

Just got a feeling, ya know? Besides, Brady's due to drop off big.

by **Freezic Vast** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:05 am

Ranoria wrote:
Jerzylvania wrote:
Texans are 1-9 all time vs Pats with the lone win coming at Houston. I'd love to see the Pats lose their home opener, but with that said, i don't expect it.

Just got a feeling, ya know? Besides, Brady's due to drop off big.

by **Ranoria** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:08 am

Freezic Vast wrote:
Ranoria wrote:Just got a feeling, ya know? Besides, Brady's due to drop off big.

Hey, Peyton went from 4,700 yards, 39 TDs, and 15 INT to absolute garbage as a passer. Arm was just completely gone. Granted, he threw the ball over 1200 times in the two seasons prior as compared to Brady's just over 1,000, so who knows?

by **Idzequitch** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:13 am

Jerzylvania wrote:
Ranoria wrote:In my opinion, not only that, but JJ Watt is due for a game against the Pats. I'm always hyped to see him go after Brady, because Brady, in my opinion, is fine until you move him from his spot (Goff's the same way, but Brady is certainly better under pressure), and Clowney is healthy.

Texans are 1-9 all time vs Pats with the lone win coming at Houston. I'd love to see the Pats lose their home opener, but with that said, i don't expect it.

I don't necessarily expect it either, but I do think it could happen. History favors the Pats, but I do think this Texans team is better than most of the 9 the Patriots have beaten in the past.

by **Jerzylvania** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:00 am

Freezic Vast wrote:
Ranoria wrote:Just got a feeling, ya know? Besides, Brady's due to drop off big.

by **Jerzylvania** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:04 am

Idzequitch wrote:
Jerzylvania wrote:
Texans are 1-9 all time vs Pats with the lone win coming at Houston. I'd love to see the Pats lose their home opener, but with that said, i don't expect it.

I don't necessarily expect it either, but I do think it could happen. History favors the Pats, but I do think this Texans team is better than most of the 9 the Patriots have beaten in the past.

I might as well take the plunge. Winning team is underlined.

Falcons - Eagles
Bengals - Colts
Ravens - Bills
Saints - Bucs
Pats - Texans
Niners - Vikings
Titans - Dolphins
Jaguars - Giants
Steelers - Browns
Chiefs - Chargers
Panthers - Cowboys
Redskins - Cardinals
Seahawks - Broncos
Packers -Bears
Lions - Jets
Rams - Raiders

First week, 11-4, not bad.
I threw the Steelers/Browns tie out. Should we all take a loss or just disregard ties?

by **Mystic Warriors** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:38 am

Another tough year to be a raider fan.

by **Damukuni** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:06 pm

Damukuni's NFL Picks
An NS Sports-Related Experiment
2018-19 Week 1

NOTE: This is not an official NS Sports project!

Hi folks! Damukuni here. If you're part of NS Sports, you'll know me as the Chief Executive and WA Delegate of Esportiva.

Now that the regular NFL season is about to start, FiveThirtyEight has released their live Elo prediction grid. I mused over last year's project with a few people from the NS Sports community. Why not, I wondered aloud, take the Elo ratings from the 32 NFL teams, as told by 538, and plug them into one of the most used NS Sports score generators which we use in our sports roleplays? That being said, here's how my simulation will work:

xkoranate
xkoranate was developed by long-time NS Sporter Commerce Heights, currently the director of UICA, the overseer of the global domestic soccer team competition (t=3108) in NS Sports. Since its inception, it has been expanded to include nearly a hundred different sport-related disciplines. Many disciples have multiple formulas for calculating projected scores. The latest version, 0.3.3, can be downloaded here if you are interested in trying this program out for yourself (but it comes with no documentation or warranty, although the #nssport channel on EsperNet IRC or the NS Sport Discord might be able to help).

Schiavone-Qutari International Scorination (SQIS)
The SQIS formula, devised by former long-time NS Sporters Schiavonia (CTEd 2016) and Qutar (CTEd 2012), is a popular formula for scorinating (soccer) football games. The formula was expanded officially to American football sometime after the (soccer) football method was developed. An unofficial expansion to ice hockey was created by Free Republics.

For more information on programs and formulae used, see the List of Scorinators and Other Related Programs.

The "Scorination" Itself
538 uses 1500 as the centering point of its Elo rating system. 1500 therefore represents the most mediocre team in the NFL. You can see the whole Elo table on the aforementioned 538 site. These Elo ratings now translate to skill bonuses, commonly called roleplay (RP) bonus in the NS Sport community. The minimum possible skill is 0 (zero), and the maximum possible skill is 3000. No team will ever reach either rating extreme, but 0-3000 is a common range if the centering point is 1500.

The NFL schedule is then input into xkoranate as any number of single matches. Because modified "sudden-death" overtime is used in the NFL, the formula for sudden-death overtime is used.

Posting Schedule
With the exception of this week, postings will be made every Wednesday night at 9 PM US Eastern time.

And, of course, once again, these are just my predictions, not a formal measurement of actual NFL team performance.

With that, here's my predictions for Week 1!

NOTE: The home team is listed on the LEFT as per NS Sports conventions.

Eagles      3–10   Falcons                    Thursday Night Football (NBC) 6/9/18 20:20 ET
Ravens      9–35   Bills                      Sunday 9/9/18 13:00 ET (CBS)
Giants      3–17   Jaguars                    Sunday 9/9/18 13:00 ET (FOX)
Saints      3– 0   Buccaneers                 Sunday 9/9/18 13:00 ET (FOX)
Patriots   13– 3   Texans                     Sunday 9/9/18 13:00 ET (CBS)
Vikings    10–10   49ers      (16–10 OT)      Sunday 9/9/18 13:00 ET (FOX)
Dolphins   19– 7   Titans                     Sunday 9/9/18 13:00 ET (FOX)
Colts      16– 9   Bengals                    Sunday 9/9/18 13:00 ET (CBS)
Browns     13–29   Steelers                   Sunday 9/9/18 13:00 ET (CBS)
Chargers   23– 6   Chiefs                     Sunday 9/9/18 16:05 ET (CBS)
Broncos    27–10   Seahawks                   Sunday 9/9/18 16:25 ET (FOX)
Panthers    3–17   Cowboys                    Sunday 9/9/18 16:25 ET (FOX)
Cardinals   7– 3   Redskins                   Sunday 9/9/18 16:25 ET (FOX)
Packers    32–23   Bears                      Sunday Night Football (NBC) 9/9/18 20:20 ET
Lions      13–16   Jets                       Monday Night Football (ESPN) 10/9/18 19:10 ET
Raiders    26–27   Rams                       Monday Night Football (ESPN) 10/9/18 22:20 ET

by **Cleveland Burning** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 2:28 pm

Garbage in, garbage out. Browns player turnover described over the past 18 seasons. That's in doubt this season. Yay! Not smelling so trashy now.

Is hope restored?
Browns 31 Steelers 30
Yep.

by **Kohr** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:26 pm

Okay, I guess it's about time to make this public. Anyone who has posted their picks on this thread is included in my spreadsheet. If you don't want me to track your picks, just tell me and I'll remove you. Similarly, I'd be happy to add anyone who hasn't made picks yet, even if they don't post for week 1. Any suggestions for changes or new features are welcome!

by **Jerzylvania** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:41 pm

Kohr wrote:Okay, I guess it's about time to make this public. Anyone who has posted their picks on this thread is included in my spreadsheet. If you don't want me to track your picks, just tell me and I'll remove you. Similarly, I'd be happy to add anyone who hasn't made picks yet, even if they don't post for week 1. Any suggestions for changes or new features are welcome!

Very nicely done.

by **Ameriganastan** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:49 pm

What the Hell. I know more about football than Mel Kiper. I bet I nail this. I shall dominate the spreadsheet!

by **Kohr** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:55 pm

Jerzylvania wrote:
Kohr wrote:Okay, I guess it's about time to make this public. Anyone who has posted their picks on this thread is included in my spreadsheet. If you don't want me to track your picks, just tell me and I'll remove you. Similarly, I'd be happy to add anyone who hasn't made picks yet, even if they don't post for week 1. Any suggestions for changes or new features are welcome!

Very nicely done.

Hey, thanks!

Ameriganastan wrote:What the Hell. I know more about football than Mel Kiper. I bet I nail this. I shall dominate the spreadsheet!
Eagles over Falcons.
Colts over Bengals
Bills over Ravens
Saints over Bucs
Patriots over Texans
Vikings over 49'ers
Titans over Dolphins
Jags over Giants
Steelers over Browns
Chiefs over Chargers
Panthers over Cowboys
Cardinals over Redskins
Seahawks over Denver
Packers over Bears
Jets over Lions
Rams over Raiders

Picking against your own team, I see.

by **Ameriganastan** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 4:56 pm

Kohr wrote:Picking against your own team, I see.

I am under no delusions about Denver this year. I'll pick them 3, maybe 4 times.

by **Freezic Vast** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:05 pm

I heard rumors that the game may be delayed until about 9 PM EST, so we have to wait for kickoff even longer... fuck.

by **Damukuni** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:11 pm

Ameriganastan wrote:What the Hell. I know more about football than Mel Kiper. I bet I nail this. I shall dominate the spreadsheet!

Oh hey, I know you from the LoL thread... I suppose all of us who cared about strong teams winning definitely picked TSM at the beginning of the LCS season to streamroll everyone right? :rofl:

Good luck

by **Ameriganastan** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:42 pm

Damukuni wrote:
Ameriganastan wrote:What the Hell. I know more about football than Mel Kiper. I bet I nail this. I shall dominate the spreadsheet!

Oh hey, I know you from the LoL thread... I suppose all of us who cared about strong teams winning definitely picked TSM at the beginning of the LCS season to streamroll everyone right?

Good luck

I don't really follow the LCS. I only paid attention last season cause they made a bracket game out of it.

by **Jerzylvania** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 5:56 pm

Damukuni wrote:
Ameriganastan wrote:What the Hell. I know more about football than Mel Kiper. I bet I nail this. I shall dominate the spreadsheet!

Oh hey, I know you from the LoL thread... I suppose all of us who cared about strong teams winning definitely picked TSM at the beginning of the LCS season to streamroll everyone right?

Good luck

You have the Bills scoring 35 points? With Nathan Peterman at QB? On the Ravens D in Baltimore? And winning 35-9? I think you fucked up here.

538 has the Ravens at 64% prob for the win, but hey, that's why they play the games.

BTW, I think it might rain Sunday.

Good luck.

by **Freezic Vast** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:04 pm

Okay Boyz II Men singing the national anthem was a blessing, great to finally hear them and show support for Philly.

by **Zurkerx** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:16 pm

And the Eagles defense holds, for now. Let's see what this offense does.

by **United Kingdom of Poland** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:18 pm

Jerzylvania wrote:
Damukuni wrote:Oh hey, I know you from the LoL thread... I suppose all of us who cared about strong teams winning definitely picked TSM at the beginning of the LCS season to streamroll everyone right?

Good luck

You have the Bills scoring 35 points? With Nathan Peterman at QB? On the Ravens D in Baltimore? And winning 35-9? I think you fucked up here.

538 has the Ravens at 64% prob for the win, but hey, that's why they play the games.

BTW, I think it might rain Sunday.

Good luck.

maybe its all off pick sixes

by **Impaled Nazarene** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:18 pm

First drive of the season Sarkisian the great butt fumble does it again!

AND AGAIN! Are we sure Sarkisian is sober?

by **Thermodolia** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:42 pm

I might as well get in on this.

by **Thermodolia** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:56 pm

So the NFL figures out what a catch is. But can’t call pass interference correctly?!

by **Ranoria** » Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:17 pm

I think Atlanta’s offense would be pretty easy to run. Have 9 guys pass block, keep Devonta Freeman off the field, since you’re passing every down, and throw it to Julio.

NFL Thread v2: The 2020 NFL Season!

Super Bowl Championship: Who’s the winner?

Damukuni's Picks: An NS Sports-related Experiment

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