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2018 FIFA World Cup Megathread

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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World Cup?

Great World Cup!
24
53%
Good World Cup!
11
24%
Meh
4
9%
Bad World Cup!
0
No votes
Awful World Cup!
6
13%
 
Total votes : 45

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Tobiasia
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Postby Tobiasia » Sat May 26, 2018 12:47 pm

Bombadil wrote:
Neu Leonstein wrote:Assuming that I didn't mess up the code somewhere, there are a couple of things going on. The first is the ELO scores. I didn't use FIFA ones, both because I think they're bad and because the draw was based on them, so using them to analyse the draw would be a bit recursive. France has a 1984, which is pretty high, but a bit below the top-ranks like Brazil (2131) and Germany (2092). Plus, there are a few teams with similar scores to France in that follow-up pack.

The second issue is that France doesn't have an easy draw. Assuming that they top the group, their next opponent is the runner-up of group D, which is probably Croatia (1853). Then it'll be a choice of Spain, Portugal or Uruguay. And after that Brazil and Germany.

They can win all those matches, but the problem is that to win them all in a row often enough to show up as a significant proportion of total tournament victories they need a number of positive net shocks to happen in a row. It just so happened that when I ran my simulations, they didn't get those very often. Again, assuming that everything worked as intended. I worked through a couple of loops step by step to try and make sure the logic works as it's supposed to, but there are no guarantees. I'm still learning.

Anyway, for what it's worth, I agree with you. France is probably a better chance than the ELO scores give it credit for, and I think Brazil is a substantially smaller chance than the ELO scores imply. But I kept my own views out of this as much as possible.


Ah.. ok.. I don't think there's anything wrong with your math here - but I do think there's an issue with the ranking. As far as I can tell you've used ELO and then to some degree mapped to WC ranking?

The issue is that the South Americans seem very high on ELO and I suspect it's possibly the nature of their qualifying campaign. They seem to have the greatest variance in ELO rankings (Colombia jump 17, Peru drop 21) though for the life of me I can't see how Brazil dropped five and Argentina only one.. I guess friendlies.. Brazil drew with England recently..but it's y-o-y rankings.. still when you adjusted Argentina shoots up in the rankings on your system, which kind of belies their poor qualifying campaign and poor team sans Messi.

I wonder if you can download (not 'you' per se) first team FIFA player rankings on Playstation and rank accordingly.. and then enter the same random shock.

I say 'I wonder' because I don't think the effort of running it is particularly worth it and, to your point, the interest in this is post-tournament and seeing who out-performed or not. Like you say I'm not sure you can easily quantify randomness in football.

Hang on did you just say Argentina have a poor team bar messi?? Are you mad just think about Aguero, Higuain, Di Mária etc?
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The Archregimancy
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Postby The Archregimancy » Sat May 26, 2018 12:49 pm

Tobiasia wrote:Hang on did you just say Argentina have a poor team bar messi?? Are you mad just think about Aguero, Higuain, Di Mária etc?


The last time Argentina played with a full squad bar Messi in Russia - in 2017 - they lost to Nigeria 4-2, giving up what appeared to be a comfortable 2-0 lead.

Either Nigeria are better than people think they are, or Argentina aren't that great without Messi.

Or both; I have my money on both.

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Postby Darmen » Sat May 26, 2018 12:54 pm

Predictions!

Group: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Group A: Uruguay, Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia
Group B: Spain, Portugal, Iran, Morocco
Group C: France, Denmark, Peru, Australia
Group D: Argentina, Croatia, Nigeria, Iceland
Group E: Brazil, Costa Rica, Switzerland, Serbia
Group F: Germany, Mexico, Sweden, South Korea
Group G: England, Belgium, Panama, Tunisia
Group H: Colombia, Poland, Japan, Senegal

Round of Sixteen:
Portugal over Uruguay
France over Croatia
Brazil over Mexico
England over Poland
Spain over Russia
Argentina over Denmark
Germany over Costa Rica
Belgium over Colombia

Quarterfinals:
France over Portugal
Brazil over England
Spain over Argentina
Germany over Belgium

Semifinals:
France over Brazil
Germany over Spain

Third Place Playoff:
Spain over Brazil

Final:
Germany over France
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Postby Fartsniffage » Sat May 26, 2018 12:59 pm

Tobiasia wrote:
Trumptonium1 wrote:Why are Chile and Poland not on the poll and why is England there?

Either way I think Argentina, Belgium or Poland. I'll be damned if Belgium doesn't at least reach the semis with their current squad. Argentina and Poland good all-rounders, latter being an underdog along with Switzerland. But I've seen Switzerland play Portugal and they were demolished.

Also Salah might pull Egypt out of their group. Uruguay is at a historic weak point atm.

England actually has a chance of winning also 14% of people have voted England (not me tho I think France) however Switzerland has zero chance of winning and personally I don’t think they’ll make it out of their group. Chile and Poland though I agree have a good chance but that’s why the ‘other’ vote is available :)


I voted England.

It was a joke.

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Tobiasia
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Postby Tobiasia » Sat May 26, 2018 1:00 pm

The Archregimancy wrote:
Tobiasia wrote:Hang on did you just say Argentina have a poor team bar messi?? Are you mad just think about Aguero, Higuain, Di Mária etc?


The last time Argentina played with a full squad bar Messi in Russia - in 2017 - they lost to Nigeria 4-2, giving up what appeared to be a comfortable 2-0 lead.

Either Nigeria are better than people think they are, or Argentina aren't that great without Messi.

Or both; I have my money on both.

You have a point, maybe Argentina are similar to Belgium (who in my opinion have the worlds best team but don’t play well together) also Argentina’s midfield let them down.
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Tobiasia
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Postby Tobiasia » Sat May 26, 2018 1:01 pm

Who do we all think the stand out players of this World Cup will be?
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Postby The Blaatschapen » Sat May 26, 2018 1:07 pm

Tobiasia wrote:Who do we all think the stand out players of this World Cup will be?


Griezmann.

I wanted to say Salah, but :(
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Postby Dumb Ideologies » Sat May 26, 2018 1:14 pm

Tobiasia wrote:Who do we all think the stand out players of this World Cup will be?


*sweats*

Harry Kane and Dele Alli.

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Postby Fartsniffage » Sat May 26, 2018 1:16 pm

Tobiasia wrote:Who do we all think the stand out players of this World Cup will be?


Alexander-Arnold

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Tobiasia
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Postby Tobiasia » Sat May 26, 2018 1:28 pm

The blAAtschApen wrote:
Tobiasia wrote:Who do we all think the stand out players of this World Cup will be?


Griezmann.

I wanted to say Salah, but :(

Griezmann and Mbappe will be brilliant in attack, it could be Mbappes chance to properly break into the world stage
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Postby Starblaydia » Sat May 26, 2018 2:24 pm

The blAAtschApen wrote:
Tobiasia wrote:Who do we all think the stand out players of this World Cup will be?

I wanted to say Salah, but :(

But Ramos is starting his UFC career next week.
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Postby The Archregimancy » Sat May 26, 2018 2:30 pm

The blAAtschApen wrote:I wanted to say Salah, but :(


Early word is that it's a suspected dislocated shoulder, and not a fracture.

The NHS says:

Recovery time
You can stop wearing the sling after a few days, but it takes about 12 to 16 weeks to completely recover from a dislocated shoulder.

You'll usually be able to resume most activities within two weeks, but should avoid heavy lifting and sports involving shoulder movements for between six weeks and three months. Your care team will advise you.

You'll probably be off work for two to four weeks, or longer, if you have a physical job. Discuss this with your care team.


Egypt's first match - against Uruguay - is on the 15th of June.

He might be able to pull it off, but it's asking a lot; and it'll depend on the severity of the injury.

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Postby Ko-oren » Sat May 26, 2018 2:33 pm

Champions' League is over, time to look ahead to the World Cup. I don't know much about the Egyptian squad, but how are their chances with or without Salah?

I'm picking France to win it for now, with a key role for Griezmann. As far as stand out players go, I'm predicting a World Cup where a lot of individual talent will be neutralised, I'm bracing for a lot of 1-0s.
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Postby Fartsniffage » Sat May 26, 2018 2:37 pm

The Archregimancy wrote:
The blAAtschApen wrote:I wanted to say Salah, but :(


Early word is that it's a suspected dislocated shoulder, and not a fracture.

The NHS says:

Recovery time
You can stop wearing the sling after a few days, but it takes about 12 to 16 weeks to completely recover from a dislocated shoulder.

You'll usually be able to resume most activities within two weeks, but should avoid heavy lifting and sports involving shoulder movements for between six weeks and three months. Your care team will advise you.

You'll probably be off work for two to four weeks, or longer, if you have a physical job. Discuss this with your care team.


Egypt's first match - against Uruguay - is on the 15th of June.

He might be able to pull it off, but it's asking a lot; and it'll depend on the severity of the injury.


And every defender at the world cup will be tugging on his arm.

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The Archregimancy
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Postby The Archregimancy » Sun May 27, 2018 1:42 am

Fartsniffage wrote:
The Archregimancy wrote:
Early word is that it's a suspected dislocated shoulder, and not a fracture.

The NHS says:



Egypt's first match - against Uruguay - is on the 15th of June.

He might be able to pull it off, but it's asking a lot; and it'll depend on the severity of the injury.


And every defender at the world cup will be tugging on his arm.


Sir, are you suggesting that Uruguayans might engage in underhand tactics?

I'm shocked! Shocked, I say!

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The Archregimancy
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Postby The Archregimancy » Sun May 27, 2018 1:58 am

Salah update:

While Klopp initially called it a 'really serious injury', noting that Salah was on his way to the hospital for an X-ray, and that it was 'either the collarbone or the shoulder itself', following the X-ray, the Egyptian FA has been far more positive and upbeat.

They've tweeted (in Arabic) that Salah only has a ligament strain in his shoulder - not a dislocation or a fracture - and that he'll be ready for Russia.

https://twitter.com/pharaohs/status/100 ... 29896?s=21

Let's hope the Egyptians are right. Personal experience suggests Egyptian authorities are a little prone to overly optimistic assessments of time scales (ask me about my interactions with the new Grand Egyptian Museum near the Pyramids one of these days)

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Postby Starblaydia » Sun May 27, 2018 3:14 am

The Archregimancy wrote:Let's hope the Egyptians are right. Personal experience suggests Egyptian authorities are a little prone to overly optimistic assessments of time scales (ask me about my interactions with the new Grand Egyptian Museum near the Pyramids one of these days)

I hear that as essentially saying "He's not that badly injured and will be ready, insha'Allah"

Insha'Allah (literally "God willing") being some combination of "I'd like that to happen", "Maybe", "As if", and "Fuck knows".
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Postby Trumptonium1 » Sun May 27, 2018 3:28 am

Starblaydia wrote:
The Archregimancy wrote:Let's hope the Egyptians are right. Personal experience suggests Egyptian authorities are a little prone to overly optimistic assessments of time scales (ask me about my interactions with the new Grand Egyptian Museum near the Pyramids one of these days)

I hear that as essentially saying "He's not that badly injured and will be ready, insha'Allah"

Insha'Allah (literally "God willing") being some combination of "I'd like that to happen", "Maybe", "As if", and "Fuck knows".


Yeah first thing I noticed too. They're hoping.
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Postby Nazis in Space » Sun May 27, 2018 8:04 am

The Archregimancy wrote:Sir, are you suggesting that Uruguayans might engage in underhand tactics?

I'm shocked! Shocked, I say!

It is my understanding that Uruguay's tactics are less underhanded and more hands-on.

Some gritting of teeth may be involved as well.

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Postby The Archregimancy » Sun May 27, 2018 12:08 pm

Starblaydia wrote:
The Archregimancy wrote:Let's hope the Egyptians are right. Personal experience suggests Egyptian authorities are a little prone to overly optimistic assessments of time scales (ask me about my interactions with the new Grand Egyptian Museum near the Pyramids one of these days)

I hear that as essentially saying "He's not that badly injured and will be ready, insha'Allah"

Insha'Allah (literally "God willing") being some combination of "I'd like that to happen", "Maybe", "As if", and "Fuck knows".


And if he plays, then hamdullilah.


For what it's worth, Salah has since tweeted his own assessment, and there's a fairly big element of inshallah in there:

It was a very tough night, but I'm a fighter. Despite the odds, I'm confident that I'll be in Russia to make you all proud. Your love and support will give me the strength I need.


That doesn't sound quite as optimistic as the Egyptian FA.

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Postby Fartsniffage » Sun May 27, 2018 1:11 pm


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Postby Shofercia » Sun May 27, 2018 2:35 pm

That was a horrible move by Sergio Ramos. I think he should be denied a chance to play in this World Cup. What a horrible move! I thought arm-bar was reserved for UFC. I'd push for a Champions League rematch, had the Liverpool Keeper not ended up as Real Madrid's MVP.

Liverpool should blame the Russians for hacking Loris Karius' gloves :P

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On a more serious note: https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest ... ague-final

Petition to punish Sergio Ramos for 'intentionally hurting' Mo Salah hits 216K


Thoughts NSG?
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Postby Fartsniffage » Sun May 27, 2018 2:38 pm

Shofercia wrote:That was a horrible move by Sergio Ramos. I think he should be denied a chance to play in the World Cup if Mo Salah ends up being too hurt to play. What a horrible move! I'd push for a Champions League rematch, had the Liverpool Keeper not ended up as Real Madrid's MVP. Liverpool should blame the Russians for hacking Loris Karius' gloves :P





On a more serious note: https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest ... ague-final

Petition to punish Sergio Ramos for 'intentionally hurting' Mo Salah hits 216K


Thoughts NSG?


The moment I saw it I thought it was intentional.

I say it should be a 3-5 UEFA game ban. It was a shitty thing to do but not really any worse than a studs up over the ball challenge or a stamp.

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Postby Shofercia » Sun May 27, 2018 2:45 pm

Fartsniffage wrote:The moment I saw it I thought it was intentional.

I say it should be a 3-5 UEFA game ban. It was a shitty thing to do but not really any worse than a studs up over the ball challenge or a stamp.


I agree, it was definitely intentional, but here's my issue with a 3 game UEFA ban. It doesn't really punish Ramos. You're playing 6 group stage games, and Real Madrid is good enough to withstand even a 6 game UEFA ban on Ramos. And then, when the final comes again, Ramos can just take out another star. Such a ban would essentially encourage the same thing to happen all over again. If you're doing a UEFA ban, it should be for at least 8 games, so that Real Madrid can feel the impact. Otherwise, you're just giving him a free ride.
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Postby Fartsniffage » Sun May 27, 2018 2:53 pm

Shofercia wrote:
Fartsniffage wrote:The moment I saw it I thought it was intentional.

I say it should be a 3-5 UEFA game ban. It was a shitty thing to do but not really any worse than a studs up over the ball challenge or a stamp.


I agree, it was definitely intentional, but here's my issue with a 3 game UEFA ban. It doesn't really punish Ramos. You're playing 6 group stage games, and Real Madrid is good enough to withstand even a 6 game UEFA ban on Ramos. And then, when the final comes again, Ramos can just take out another star. Such a ban would essentially encourage the same thing to happen all over again. If you're doing a UEFA ban, it should be for at least 8 games, so that Real Madrid can feel the impact. Otherwise, you're just giving him a free ride.


I hate Ramos, have for years. He's a fantastically dirty player who gets away with it time and time again.

Problem is, I can't see how UEFA could get a long ban to stick. Officially his record is pretty clear.

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