With the American election upon us and the polls so tight, the prospect of a Trump victory is looming. Trump would no doubt be an outlier in the history of American Presidents, with a discourse so radically out-of-line the paradigm of American foreign policy. For us Europeans, it is in many ways the foreign policy of the next President that matters most to us. For all of Hillary's critics bashing her over her interventionist foreign policy, it's worth reminding that Trump represents a foreign policy that is far more dangerous for the future of Europe: isolationism. Trump represents the 'closed world' politics that hits back against interdependence, interconnectedness and so-called 'globalism' - in many ways the illiberal antithesis of the vision of the Western establishment in the postwar era. It is this 'closed world' type of politics that is equally pushed by the likes of Le Pen, Wilders, Brexit and AfD. So what kind of consequences would a Trump presidency have for Europe?
I can identify three major question marks that may occur following Trump's possible inauguration, all with varying degrees of possibility.
The first of these comes from the questionable relationship between Russia and the Republican candidate, and Russia's interest in seeing him win this Tuesday. Already we know that Russia has been interfering with the American election with the goal of discrediting American democracy. A revenge against Clinton (who in 2011 discredited Russian democracy) perhaps, or maybe a tactic to satisfy Russian interests in Europe. Trump has made clear his foreign policy is one of total non-intervention, hinting at refusing to defend fellow NATO member-states in the case of an attack. Russia, already subsidising and supporting the isolationists across the European continent, has interests in proving that it is not, as Obama said, a declining "regional power" and to keep pursuing an aggressive foreign policy in the European border states. While an all-out conventional war is no doubt unlikely (Putin is not one to play anything by the book), Putin may be more comfortable with expanding his 'non-linear warfare' by funding and arming rebels in the Baltic states, much as he did in Ukraine. A test for the continent, for sure, and one a President Trump is likely to ignore, probably even denying Russian involvement. That is a near-future scenario, but who knows where that may lead in the years ahead. Putin may not stop himself there, using any Russian minority rebellion in the Baltic states as a case for fully-fledged intervention. Again, real sweat for the brows of Europe's leaders, but a test Trump may further ignore.
The second question mark is one that is less political, but more material. It's well-anticipated that a Trump victory would signal a Brexit-type financial scare, sending the S&P falling and bond prices rising and yields tumbling. We've already seen the S&P lose ground as Clinton's poll ratings slid since Mr Comey's revelation last week, and a Trump victory would no doubt worsen this. A weaker dollar may prove beneficial for American exporters, but it's the last thing Europe (and Japan, for that matter) needs right now. A stronger euro would further reduce chances at export-led growth in the continent, and falling yields would add to the existing deflation expectations that is hampering economic growth. More years of stagnation would only exacerbate social and political unrest in Europe, slowing the process of the integration of migrants as job and growth prospects dry up. I could hope for EU-wide solutions to EU-wide problems, but if the last 9 years have taught me anything, it's that I shouldn't hold my breath.
This brings me onto the third question mark. With added social unrest and a clear victory for 'closed world' politics, we have a recipe for further electoral gains in favour of Europe's own anti-establishment isolationists. With Brexit, the perceived ineptitude of the political class and now Trump, this could be a good omen for eurosceptics participating in the elections taking place next year. Although a blowout is unlikely, it would only take one victory for the entire continent to be further destabilised and the entire European project put at serious risk. Coupled with this any possible Russian aggression and a refusal from our ally across the Atlantic to help out, disaffected voters can easily be swayed into electing a populist of their own. And that would only be a further victory for Russia, who would now have completely-free reign over a fractured continent - with Montenegro claiming Russian rebels plotted a coup of the country, Bulgaria suggesting Russia is interfering in its political affairs, and it being now undeniable that Russia has been involved in Ukraine from the start, who knows what Russia is capable of in front of a balkanised continent with an unresponsive military alliance.
Ironically, the safest place to go live in the case of a Trump victory is in America itself. I live a decent way away from the would-be front-lines of any feud that could take place between Russia and a weakened Eastern Europe, but the future of the European Union and the European project would be at an even more alarming level of risk in the case of a Trump victory. I don't have enough faith in Europe's current leaders to show any brinksmanship towards an even more hostile Russia, and neither do I have enough faith in fellow European voters to keep eurosceptics out of power. I believe in 'open world' politics as a European liberal that seems to be a rare breed these days, so I have all the reasons in the world to be rooting for Hillary. But in the case of a Trump win, which is looking more likely than ever, it's important to assess all the likely scenarios for the future of our continent. So, NSG, what do you think?
