We Have, At Long Last...Entered the Home Stretch of The General Election.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump has accepted the resignation of his former team in favor of Kellyanne Conway, noted Republican poster; and more controversially Steve Bannon, of Brietbart. Mr. Trump has double downed on the positions that lead him to victory in the primary, much to the chagrin of national republican figures. After a much discussed "softening" on immigration, it appears that Trump will not pivot but rather stick to his hard line positions. Trump's campaign has seen significant improvements since the convention, and by the anniversary of September 11th, he was only 3 points behind Clinton in the RCP polling average. However, it appears that even if Mr.Trump can grasp victory from the jaws of defeat, he will almost certainly have a Democratic Majority in the Senate. Mitch McConnell and the RNSC are combating what they expect to be heavy amounts of split ticket voting which could end up costing them their slim majority. Trump's running mate, Governor of Indiana Mike Pence, has been able to help Mr.Trump consolidate Republican support and donors in spite of their disagreements on several policies. Trump in the last several weeks has attempted outreach to communities of color, especially African Americans. He has received endorsements from some leaders of color and has given a number of speeches directly addressing the issues affecting people of color such as poverty. However he has not found much support from Latinos or African Americans, instead he has found increasing levels of support from a group of Americans who could be placed in the ideology of the Alt-Right. The Alt-right can be characterized by right-wing populism, xenophobia, misogyny, and white nationalism. This phenomenon has been deeply discussed by both the media and Trump's opponent.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Rodham Clinton's polling lead has been diminished in the weeks following the convention. Questions have been raised, re-raised, and re-re-raised about Clinton's use of a Private E-mail server as Secretary of State, possible pay-for-play within the Clinton Global Initiative, and her health (by Republicans). Clinton has begun holding press conferences, something that she had not done previously in the campaign, in order to combat claims that she is closed off. Clinton has reconciled with most of the Bernie Sanders constituency, however certainly not all. Some on the far left, including academics and activists, have insisted that she is a neoliberal who champions destructive policies and therefore shouldn't be President. These voters have gravitated towards the campaign of Jill Stein, who acknowledges that she intends to serve purely as a spoiler. However, not all is bad with the Clinton campaign. She has received a number of endorsements from Republicans, mostly members of the foreign policy community. Her support among women only continues to improve, especially white women who seem to be disturbed by the GOP campaign. Fundraising and Organization, Clinton has the clear edge, and she continues to out raise and outspend her opponent. Clinton's running mate, The Senator from Virginia Tim Kaine, has been campaigning in several red states. The Clinton campaign believes, that in spite of their current loses, they could make inroads into red states like Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri. Clinton has made it a point to attack her opponent now instead of his lack of political experience, but on his alleged fondness for Vladimir Putin and his connection to the so-called "Alt-Right".
It appears that neither candidate will reach 50% of the popular vote in November given their historically high negatives. America is in a rather unique position, which has allowed for 3rd party candidates like Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party to seize on a unusually large block of disaffected voters. He is currently polling in the low teens, and if he reaches a certain threshold, he could be the first third party to enter a Presidential Debate since Ross Perot in 1992. Johnson and his running mate William Weld are both former Republican Governors of Heavily Democratic states, and their biggest challenge has been name recognition. Johnson has begun airing ads in a number of states but has seen little improvement in his poll standing. The effects of a gaffe about Aleppo made by a campaign was widely covered in the media, but the effects have yet to be seen. Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party has also shown some growth in polling which places her in the low single digits. She has been trying to reach out to angry Bernie Sanders voters, presenting herself as the progressive alternative to Hillary Clinton. Stein has adopted a Ralph Nader type strategy, proclaiming that there are no safe states and she plans to campaign across America. Stein has been seen at protests at the Standing Rock Reservation to oppose a pipeline, and currently has a warrant for her arrest given her conduct. The Green Party, more so than the Libertarian party, has had trouble electing candidates to state or national level government. Jill Stein, and her running mate Ajamu Baraka, however, remain undeterred and have earned ballot status in most states. Many view both parties as fringe movements, many more see these outsiders as the answer to two party politics. Stein and Johnson were the nominees of their respective parties in 2012.
The major party nominees remain divisive figures who present two very different visions for the United States. Trump with his America First Policy and "Make America Great Again" philosophy vs Clinton's commitment to expanding on the legacy of President Obama while adopting more progressive reforms from Bernie Sanders. Hillary is the odds on favorite to win in November, but given the anger of the electorate and unpredictable nature of this cycle...nothing is guaranteed.
Personally, #ImWithHer. But if you're on the TrumpTrain or you're FeelingTheJohnson or you're feeling more like JillNotHill or something like BernieOrBust or NeverTrump or NeverHillary...well, that's democracy. And regardless, America will make a choice. As we inch closer to November, it becomes more apparent what is at stake in this watershed moment in our history.
The Tickets as of Today:
Donald Trump/ Mike Pence
Hillary Clinton/ Tim Kaine
Gary Johnson/ Bill Weld
Jill Stein/ Ajamu Baraka
(Updated With Semi-Regularity) Polls-Only Model, Electoral Odds according to Five Thirty Eight
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