20 AUGUST 2016
LEFT COALITION FRACTURES: SOCIALISTS, COMMUNISTS, KKS LEAVE COALITION
PRESIDENT MODERSON CALLS FOR NEW ELECTIONS
PM BERYDAN: "THE SDP WILL ENDURE THIS CRISIS"
LEFT COALITION FRACTURES: SOCIALISTS, COMMUNISTS, KKS LEAVE COALITION
PRESIDENT MODERSON CALLS FOR NEW ELECTIONS
PM BERYDAN: "THE SDP WILL ENDURE THIS CRISIS"
SACRAMENTO, Capital Region- Today, an unexpected occurrence has transpired. In the backrooms of Government Center, a dispute between the MNAs of the Left Coalition has resulted not only in a spat, but a split, over the matter of refugees from the Middle East. As of right now, the Socialist, Communists, and Salian Nationalists have left the Coalition, alleging that the governing Social Democrats wished to employ low-income refugees as temporary workers, a move that Socialist Party leader Jaime Alvaro (Minerva, Div. of Catalonia) said would violate the rights of Kanarian laborers and effectively enslave foreigners for the benefit of Kanarian corporations.
"The SDP has fully abandoned its' socialist roots with this move," Alvaro said, "along with the working and middle classes, and as such has lost its' right to rule as well as the Socialist Party's allegiance."
Alvaro went on to state that when the Socialists and Salian Nationalists raised objections, the Social Democrats abruptly changed the subject of the party discussion to a matter brought up by the Green Party regarding industrial pollution remediation on the West Coast. When the two parties tried to overturn the motion, Prime Minister Alana Berydan yelled at them to shut up or she would demote their parties to Minor Partners in the governing coalition.
"Given the longevity of our parties' historical alliance, this was unjust and unexpected," Alvaro said, referring to the Socialist-Social Democratic electoral alliance that has persisted in all elections held across the country since 1932. "We had no choice but to respond to this with a threat to abandon the alliance entirely. Berydan seemed unconcerned and unaffected, and we were thus forced to finalize our split with the Social Democrats."
Alvaro, along with Communist Party leader Martin Stromvall (Capital Region, Div. of Knight) and Salian Nationalist leader Illiae Syrmae (Salia, Div. of Stania), formed a new opposition group, the Leftist People's Alliance, which would oppose the Left Minor and Major Partners along with the Coalition for the Public Interest, the National-Traditional-Rural Coalition, and the unaligned parties in the next election.
This morning, after the split, Prime Minister Berydan requested that President Dmitry Moderson call for a new election. At 6:13 am Sacramento time, President Moderson signed a decree dissolving the House of Representatives and one-half of the Senate. The Federal Bureau of Elections announced that the electoral campaign season would last until 13 September, when voting will be held and all polls opened nationwide from 4 am local time until midnight.
Presently, Kanarians as a whole have taken a more moderate stance on refugees since the various events in Europe involving refugees from Middle Eastern nations, such as the New Year's' Day mass rapes in Cologne, Germany, and terror attacks that were perpetrated by ISIS infiltrators amongst the refugees. The 2015 election was widely held to be a referendum of sorts on the matter of admitting refugees, and it was handily won by the SDP and the Left Coalition despite its' defeat in several coastal states by the anti-refugee Coalition for the Public Interest, and the defection of state-level associate parties to the CPI. Polling in July by KBC and Victoria State University showed that only 34% of Kanarians supported admitting refugees in without enhanced screening, while 51% did support increased screening, and 15% supported halting all admittances of refugees. Political analysts predict that the CPI may stand to gain from this. However, scandals in Cymraeg, Lazio, and Minerva involving the CPI have dampened public support for them, with only 17% of people questioned in a July poll by KBC and Victoria State supporting the CPI. Instead, it is believed that the Liberal Democratic-Republican Coalition and the Greens, along with the Socialists, stand to gain the most from the election.
The Coalition for the Public Interest tweeted that it would welcome the downfall of the Social Democrats and the Left Coalition this morning.
Federal entities to watch out for in the coming election:
Randelia- The Social Democrats' heartland, as ever, is an important weather vane for determining the path of the nation. As the saying goes, "If the wind blows west in Randelia, it blows west over the nation", and it doesn't seem likely to change. In the 2014 elections, the CPI won more seats than the Social Democrats, helped along by the defection of the Randelian Working People's Party from the commonwealth Social Democratic Conference. However, the opposition fractured, denying the CPI control, and the diminished pro-SDP contingent continues to govern the state. In light of the recent split in the national Left Coalition, Randelia's government has remained united, and this morning the Randelian SDP issued a statement condemning PM Berydan's actions in the internal meeting. The CPI is still likely to gain more seats than ever here, and currently holds fifteen out of eighty-nine of the state's House delegation along with one Senate seat. The SDP may also lose its' Senate seat.
Minerva- As in Randelia, Minerva is still under SDP control in a minority government, with the CPI controlling fifteen out of forty-three of the state's House seats and a sizable portion of the state legislature through the defector Minerva Labor Party (MLP). However, it controls half of the county governments in the state and a quarter of Minerva's city governments. Scandals involving drug trading schemes and sexual harrassment have dogged the mayor of Minerva City, the MLP's Minato Geraldson, since his election in 2013 and a recall initiative is being mounted to remove him from office. Graft accusations dog another twenty CPI mayors. With this in mind, along with public boorishness on the part of CPI members in the state legislature, Minervans seem unlikely to continue the majority the Coalition holds in the House delegation. Instead, that may pass to the Liberal Democrats.
Lazio- The only majorly-urban state in the country where the Coalition is in government (Cymraeg is the only other federal entity period), Lazio has seen numerous corruption scandals involving the state Premier, Silvia Barraconi, since her election in 2013, and many CPI mayors across the state. The Coalition promised in 2013 to end the state's history of incursions on local government power, but has failed to do so, and even contributed to it with its' new restrictions on tax policy and speed limit regulations for cities and counties. Presently the CPI holds a solid majority in the State Assembly and in the National Assembly delegation but is all but certain to lose the latter to the campaign plotted out by charismatic Liberal-Republican Party leader Lauren Morita.
Capital Region- A heavyweight in national politics and the second-largest of the federal entities, the Capital Region is solidly leftist, with only a small Liberal Democratic contingent (just 2 in the National Assembly) and even fewer National-Traditional Coalition supporters. Mostly it goes for the Socialists, Greens and Social Democrats. Despite the scandalous behavior of the Social Democrats nationally, in the Capital Region Assembly the three parties have cooperated on policies idiosyncratic to at least one of their national-level overseers, including a program to build temporary refugee housing near Fort Solon. The composition of the Region's delegation to Government Center is unlikely to change in this election.
New Maryland- Another heavyweight, and just south of Sacramento and the Capital Region, New Maryland has seen a surge in support for the Liberal Democratic-Republican coalition there and for the Greens, who hail from Stratford in the state's south. However, support for the SDP has declined, and has gone lower with the Refugee Resettlement Act passed last month, which sets up massive refugee camps on brownfields across the nation. The CPI falsely alleged that three million refugees would be brought in over ten years to public housing in Birmingham, Liverpool, London and Port Oxford. But that has had little effect on New Maryland's strongly anti-CPI stance. Instead, the Liberal Democrats and Republicans have cooperated to propose a plan which would aid in refugee settlement by placing them in brownfields under strict supervision, and were about to propose this in Sacramento before the National Assembly before it was dissolved. The LDP has announced its' merger with the Republicans in the state is imminent, and together they are expected to win the majority of seats in the state.
Turkey- While Turkey is considered strongly pro National-Traditional (and it is), it has seen a decline in that sentiment with the rise of the CPI since 2008 and the scandals of the Turkish People's Party in Ankara. With a massive shakeup last year inside the state's National Party branch and simultaneous reforms in the TPP after the downfall of the Nat-Trad supermajority in the Turkey State Legislature, however, the party's leader, Tayyip Gulen, is confident the CPI can be defeated here decisively in the 2018 state election, and warded off this year, as it was last year. This may forebode for the Nat-Trad Coalition's chances nationally. It may yet return to predominance electorally, as it held prior to the 2008 recession.
Outcomes for the parties:
Social Democrats- The nation's largest party since 2008, the SDP is expected to remain among the top five parties after this election. However, with the sundering of the Left Coalition, its' future as the nation's governing party is uncertain. The SDP may consider alliance with the LDP and Republicans, and relations with the Greens are still good. However, the possibility of the CPI surging to the top in this election looms large for them, and much will likely be lost by the Social Democrats.
Coalition for the Public Interest- The nation's newest party has run into issues in some of the states and cities where it's in power, but is still a monster energized by the will of the people. Despite the corruption scandals its' pledge to return politics to the people and take it back from elite groups remains influential and many Kanarians will still likely hear its' call, though less so than in 2011 or 2015. Other criticisms are coming out, however, that its' state-level policies are a contradictory mess of LDP, SDP, and NatTrad ideas.
National, Traditional and Rural Coalition (NatTrads)- The nation's original Coalition was hurt severely by its' position as the governing party in 2008, and slid to a new depth in 2015. However, the weakness of the CPI where it has begun to govern since 2011 poses an opportunity for the NatTrads to return to their position as Kanaria's second largest political party in alternation with the SDP. The uncertain nature of Kanarian politics this year, however, makes it unclear what the path forward is for the NatTrads if they do reclaim their position.
Greens- The Greens have gotten off scot-free from their continued alliance with the Social Democrats, even though their policies on refugees are even less popular and comprise a continuation of the ones from before 2014. Their unique mixture of property-based environmental solutions, anti-welfare reform, and social liberalism in general are expected to continue to appeal massively, though, and may win them a massive boost nationwide. Still, though, the centrist Liberal-Republican coalition is the one to look out for. If the LDP does rise to the top five, and the Greens are at least in the top ten, an alliance between them most certainly won't be out of the question.
Liberal Democrats and Republicans (L-R)- The two parties' effective merger continues today like a slow waltz, even as it just got faster with the August 15 declaration by both parties that they will unite into the national Liberal Republican Party before the next election. Such a declaration has long been in the works and isn't expected to change relations between their voters. However, that potential voting pool is going to get bigger. With the LDP's emphasis on non-demagogic political reforms and pro-democracy foreign relations stances, as well as their open and compromising stance on refugees, they may be the biggest winners in the election. An upswing in support would propel them, already in the top 5 when combined, decisively into the top 5 as a united party by September. If traditional relations between the other parties, and the split in the Left, continue, the LDP may yet see a 1982-style return to government in the minority, or in a fractious centrist coalition.
Socialists, Communists, and Salian Nationalists (Left People's Coalition) These three parties have seen a boost in their support since 2008 and the alleged failures of the capitalist system. With the recent split over refugees as being victims and tools of capitalist exploitation (as alleged by these three parties) in the Left Coalition and the subsequent dissolution of the National Assembly, they look set to capitalize on this issue in the upcoming election. However, they will likely not be enough to withstand the optimistic outlook for the Liberal Democratic-Republican Coalition. The Salian Nationalists are likely to demand more power to the republics to control refugee influx, but otherwise remain unchanged in their control of the Salia Republic or their delegation to the National Assembly.
Capitalist Party- The dark horse of the parties, and most severely hurt by the 2008 economic crash and election, the Capitalists are looking to regain ground on the East Coast based on a new focus of improving the stability of the Kanarian economy through more bank deregulation, and mimicking the LDP on refugee policy. It remains largely centrist in social matters, excepting its' demands for welfare reform. However, the party's leaders may be setting their standards too high.
The regional and ethnic parties- Overall the outlook for them is neutral. Most of them won't change their delegation's size this election. However, the Popular Coalition for the Southwest Islands is expected to take some seats from the SDP over plans for a refugee processing center on the Asilian island of Santa Maria, whose native seal population could be threatened by expanded human development, which have attracted protesters to the island to block government-contracted engineering surveyors. They will remain towards the bottom of the lists for seats.
Who do you stand with in this election season?
