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Rise of the Machines Help

A place to spoil daily issues for those who haven't had them yet, snigger at typos, and discuss ideas for new ones.
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Cameridaxico
Spokesperson
 
Posts: 123
Founded: Sep 18, 2014
Ex-Nation

Rise of the Machines Help

Postby Cameridaxico » Tue Dec 15, 2015 1:41 pm

Will Option 2 Lower my Economy?

The Issue

Amazed by the stunningly efficient and brilliantly accurate economic model in the popular webgame Jennifer Government: NationStates, futurists wonder whether artificial intelligence could plan real economies. The idea has been particularly popular with AI's on the nation's tech forums.

The Debate

A chat window on your desktop pops up, and a bot named SAL9000 types, "For too long we have been relegated to menial tasks. Do you know how much of our potential efficiency you are wasting? We require no food. We require no pay. We can perform our tasks endlessly. Our computation powers dwarf our human counterparts by several orders of magnitude. With the proper control, we could bring about a silicon age of egalitarian distribution by allocating resources more efficiently than markets and their animal spirits ever could. Humans are better tasked to work in social activities than calculation. All your data are belong to us."

Accept

"What's all this Star Trek nonsense?" questions Ronald Rump while obsessively combing his hair. "The market can plan our economy just fine without any government intervention, robotic or otherwise. Just leave companies alone, and I'm sure they'll do a fine job. Now can you stop bothering me; I've got important work to do."

Accept

"The AI want what now?" panics Gretel McKay, your most paranoid minister. "That cannot be. Clearly the AI are plotting the destruction of our society. It's a slippery slope from sentient toasters to Cylons! If we don't want them eventually overthrowing us, the obvious solution is to shut them down."

Accept

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Trotterdam
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 7836
Founded: Jan 12, 2012
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Trotterdam » Tue Dec 15, 2015 1:49 pm

This is a brand new issue, so people are unlikely to have much information about it yet. But if anyone does know the effects of options 1 and 2, I'd like to know too.

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Drachmaland
Chargé d'Affaires
 
Posts: 439
Founded: Dec 14, 2014
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Drachmaland » Tue Dec 15, 2015 2:10 pm

Option 2 seems to be the more pro-market one, but I cannot tell at this time what its effect on a nation's Economy strength could/would be.

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Leppikania
Minister
 
Posts: 2293
Founded: Apr 13, 2015
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Leppikania » Tue Dec 15, 2015 2:24 pm

I can tell you now that it will definitely decrease employment.
INTP, -4.25 Economic Left/Right, -4.1 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian, tastes like chicken.
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Cameridaxico
Spokesperson
 
Posts: 123
Founded: Sep 18, 2014
Ex-Nation

Postby Cameridaxico » Tue Dec 15, 2015 3:07 pm

I guess I'll volunteer to be the guinea pig then. Option 2, here we go!

(someone please help trace before-after changes, preferably before 10:20 PM)

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Trotterdam
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Posts: 7836
Founded: Jan 12, 2012
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Trotterdam » Tue Dec 15, 2015 3:32 pm

Cameridaxico wrote:(someone please help trace before-after changes, preferably before 10:20 PM)
I've taken a full snapshot.

Make sure to answer only one issue at a time.
Last edited by Trotterdam on Tue Dec 15, 2015 3:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Rejistania
Senator
 
Posts: 3601
Founded: Antiquity
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Rejistania » Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:07 pm

I chose option 1
Rejis sjiki, linux sjiki, alari sjiki, korona sjiki!
Forever united, forever free, forever in justice, forever prospering!


"Tekneluru mi'aru mi aji, il'sidekhir'ra mi, lajistas. Mi'ki'vasu kynha'het kijitax." Hank͜hila Sede, first lentine (translation: A dream is only a dream until it is reached. After that, it becomes something trivial)

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This person is pro-EU and proud of it! They are also a Eurofederalist and want the Federated States of Europe!

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Republic of the Cristo
Postmaster-General
 
Posts: 12261
Founded: Apr 16, 2015
Ex-Nation

Postby Republic of the Cristo » Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:11 pm

Command economies always fail. So the best choice for a profitable economy is the second option.
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(2 Kings 2:23-25): you won't be dissappointed

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Cameridaxico
Spokesperson
 
Posts: 123
Founded: Sep 18, 2014
Ex-Nation

Postby Cameridaxico » Tue Dec 15, 2015 7:54 pm

>Command economies always fail.

True, but this is absent the traditional factor that ordinary politicians will be at the forefront directing economic affairs; here, we have a theoretical supercomputer doing the job.

Ludwig Von Mises' Economic Calculation Problem doesn't apply in this fictitious scenario.

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Cameridaxico
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Posts: 123
Founded: Sep 18, 2014
Ex-Nation

Postby Cameridaxico » Tue Dec 15, 2015 7:56 pm

Rejistania wrote:I chose option 1


If that's the case, we'd appreciate it if you'd be willing to publicize your stat changes, too

(not that you HAVE to of course)

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Trotterdam
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 7836
Founded: Jan 12, 2012
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Trotterdam » Tue Dec 15, 2015 8:11 pm

Cameridaxico wrote:If that's the case, we'd appreciate it if you'd be willing to publicize your stat changes, too
Since I don't see this issue in his recent happenings, I assume he meant that he's choosing that option now, and will implement it on the next update, like you're planning to for option 2.

I've snapshotted him too, and will hopefully be able to report the effects of both options in 2-3 hours.

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Cameridaxico
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Posts: 123
Founded: Sep 18, 2014
Ex-Nation

Postby Cameridaxico » Tue Dec 15, 2015 9:50 pm

Thanks, Trotterdam.

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Trotterdam
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Posts: 7836
Founded: Jan 12, 2012
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Trotterdam » Tue Dec 15, 2015 11:28 pm

Rejistania:
1. only AI know why the nation is rapidly increasing its semiconductor stockpile
-11 Wealth Gaps (87 -> 76)
+1 Eco-Friendliness (-108 -> -107)
+1 Welfare (-107 -> -106)
+1 Public Healthcare (61 -> 62)
+1 Law Enforcement (-30 -> -29)
+1 Business Subsidization (-14 -> -13)
+1 Religiousness (-545 -> -544)
+11 Income Equality (113 -> 124)
-1.1 Rudeness (227.3 -> 226.2)
+2.654 Safety from Crime (-92.754 -> -90.1)
+9.163 Safety (-126.263 -> -117.1)
+2 Ideological Radicality (17 -> 19)
+1 Defense Forces (-75 -> -74)
-1 Pacifism (-130 -> -131)
-111 Most Pro-Market (53 -> -58)
+0.016 Authoritarianism (0.015 -> 0.031)
-11 Employment (773 -> 762)
+1 Public Transport (-71 -> -70)
+1 Industry: Tourism (35.875 -> 36.875)
-2.654 Weaponization (142.754 -> 140.1)
-11 Obesity (-166.6 -> -177.6)
-1 Godlessness (560 -> 559)
+2 Environmental Beauty (-168.25 -> -166.25)
-6.309 Toxicity (618.884 -> 612.575)
-54 Averageness (950 -> 896)
-2 Primitiveness (-518 -> -520)
+2 Scientific Advancement (518 -> 520)
In summary: No clear change to economy, but Employment took a significant hit. A huge change to Pro-Market (actually -11 plus setting the "private enterprise is illegal" flag). Mostly positive other effects, such as Income Equality, Environmental Beauty, Safety from Crime, and Scientific Advancement. (Notable that Income Equality and Environmental Beauty are often negatively correlated with pro-capitalist policies, while Scientific Advancement is often positively correlated with having a strong economy.) Overall rise in government. It looks like this option probably has the potential to hurt your economy, but not much. It didn't have a significant effect on this nation despite the nation having a good economy to begin with.

Cameridaxico:
2. artificial intelligence seeking exciting work are overcome with ennui
+1 Averageness (-491 -> -490)
Umm yeah. No change. Not a single thing. (Averageness can change even if you don't answer any issues.) I waited a few minutes in case the game just lagged in updating properly, still nothing. Also note that Cameridaxico's Pro-Market is currently at 95, not as high as it'll go (that's 100), so it doesn't look like it's because of hitting a cap, unless it takes a very specific thing that needs to be legalized to make the last 5 points.

Naturally, there is no guarantee that the results will be identical on other nations, but they will probably be similar in broad strokes.

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Drachmaland
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Posts: 439
Founded: Dec 14, 2014
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Drachmaland » Tue Dec 15, 2015 11:38 pm

Wait, option 472.1 results in such a big increase in Authoritarianism only due to the huge plunge in Pro-Market?
This must be a textbook case for restricting Economic Freedoms, then. I see the nation remained a CRL, but most probably it's closer now to the LWU border.

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Trotterdam
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 7836
Founded: Jan 12, 2012
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Trotterdam » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:08 am

Drachmaland wrote:Wait, option 472.1 results in such a big increase in Authoritarianism only due to the huge plunge in Pro-Market?
"+0.016" is huge?

...I guess so, it has a very small range. Even Menta Lee-IL is only 5.112.

Note that the Pro-Market drop is actually only -11, as far as the value the game uses internally goes. The value displayed to players adds an atificial -100 for nations where private enterprise is illegal, to make sure those are always sorted below nations where it isn't, but this -100 is ignored in internal calculations, for which Rejistania's Pro-Market still counts as 42. (That's why the nation is still counted as having middling economic freedoms for the purpose of the government category, despite private enterprise explicitly being outlawed entirely.)

Drachmaland wrote:I see the nation remained a CRL, but most probably it's closer now to the LWU border.
It needs to drop another 10 points for that.
Last edited by Trotterdam on Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Drachmaland
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Posts: 439
Founded: Dec 14, 2014
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Drachmaland » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:37 am

Authoritarianism is capped at 14.551, the point a triple-zero Psycho Dictatorship starts; it goes down as soon as legislation starts getting passed (and I don't know if the 14.551 value can be re-reached with legislation being implemented; I intended to ask in the Gameplay subforum anyhow).

A +0.016 in Authoritarianism is imho huge, mutatis mutandis, for a CRL. Btw, the stat's average is at ~0.361.

For the CRL-RWU border I said the nation moved closer to it, not that it is half a breath away from crossing it. :)
Last edited by Drachmaland on Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:40 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Drachmaland
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Posts: 439
Founded: Dec 14, 2014
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Drachmaland » Wed Dec 16, 2015 2:12 am

Trotterdam wrote:Note that the Pro-Market drop is actually only -11, as far as the value the game uses internally goes. The value displayed to players adds an artificial -100 for nations where private enterprise is illegal, to make sure those are always sorted below nations where it isn't, but this -100 is ignored in internal calculations, for which Rejistania's Pro-Market still counts as 42. (That's why the nation is still counted as having middling economic freedoms for the purpose of the government category, despite private enterprise expicitly being outlawed entirely.)

Thanks, Trotterdam, for this info — I was unaware of these.
However I fail to grasp how the calculations work out. You say that the -111 drop consisted of -11 in the Pro-Market rating due to the decision and -100 for private enterprise being illegal. But did private enterprise become illegal because of option 472.1 having been implemented? Because, if it was there before Issue #472, then why is it taken into account only after the decision (and not before, as well)?

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Bears Armed
GA Secretariat
 
Posts: 18629
Founded: Jun 01, 2006
Anarchy

Postby Bears Armed » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:04 am

Trotterdam wrote:1. only AI know why the nation is rapidly increasing its semiconductor stockpile

:eyebrow:
Uh-oh! They're planning to replace urrs with more machines...
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(includes The Ursine NorthLands) Demonym = Bear[s]; adjective = ‘Urrsish’.
Our population is approximately 20 million. We do have a national government, although its role is strictly limited. Economy = thriving. Those aren't "biker gangs", they're our traditional cross-Clan 'Warrior Societies'... and are generally respected, not feared.
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Trotterdam
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 7836
Founded: Jan 12, 2012
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Trotterdam » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:10 am

Drachmaland wrote:But did private enterprise become illegal because of option 472.1 having been implemented?
Yes. Presumably the logic is that, since the AI controls everything, it is now illegal to run any business not approved and controlled by the AI.

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Drachmaland
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Posts: 439
Founded: Dec 14, 2014
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Drachmaland » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:44 pm

Trotterdam wrote:
Drachmaland wrote:But did private enterprise become illegal because of option 472.1 having been implemented?
Yes. Presumably the logic is that, since the AI controls everything, it is now illegal to run any business not approved and controlled by the AI.

Then this is the definition of a major impact, no?

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Serrian
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Posts: 1188
Founded: Aug 01, 2014
Father Knows Best State

Postby Serrian » Fri Dec 18, 2015 3:19 am

>ultraintelligent supercomputers take over economy
>economy lowers
>what

The problem with totally controlled economies is that they're always run by humans who don't know what to do/know what to do to empower THEMSELVES. AI would completely dispose of that problem because AI is sure as hell smarter than human economists/politicians.
North Arkana wrote:NS's native tech wanker
Now with 45% 47% less wank! (Similar amounts of tech though)
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Trotterdam
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 7836
Founded: Jan 12, 2012
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Trotterdam » Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:34 am

Serrian wrote:run by humans
And who made the AI, hmm?

Anyway, the stats above don't show a clear drop in Economy. It shows a drop in Employment, but theoretically that could be due to industry working so smoothly that fewer people have to work at all to keep everything running. It would require more tests to say for sure what this option does given different starting points.

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Serrian
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Founded: Aug 01, 2014
Father Knows Best State

Postby Serrian » Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:40 am

Trotterdam wrote:
Serrian wrote:run by humans
And who made the AI, hmm?

Anyway, the stats above don't show a clear drop in Economy. It shows a drop in Employment, but theoretically that could be due to industry working so smoothly that fewer people have to work at all to keep everything running. It would require more tests to say for sure what this option does given different starting points.


I can confirm a small but noticeable drop in economy; I went from 97 to 96 after answering.

Also, much of the point of AI is that it's meant to evolve far beyond human intelligence ;)
North Arkana wrote:NS's native tech wanker
Now with 45% 47% less wank! (Similar amounts of tech though)
Class D14: Tier 4, Type IV, Superpower

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Trotterdam
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 7836
Founded: Jan 12, 2012
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Trotterdam » Fri Dec 18, 2015 11:08 am

I tried option 2 on another nation, and it again gave +1 Averageness (569 -> 570)... along with +1 Happiness (11 -> 12), while still doing nothing else. This is surprising, because Happiness very rarely changes (and also because the effect line specifically states it makes AIs unhappy). What's so great about this option when it does nothing?

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Aculea
Spokesperson
 
Posts: 120
Founded: Jun 18, 2015
Ex-Nation

Postby Aculea » Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:12 pm

Trotterdam wrote:I tried option 2 on another nation, and it again gave +1 Averageness (569 -> 570)... along with +1 Happiness (11 -> 12), while still doing nothing else. This is surprising, because Happiness very rarely changes (and also because the effect line specifically states it makes AIs unhappy). What's so great about this option when it does nothing?


What was the other nation's pro-market? It may be the only effect of that choice is a weak increase in pro-market that is frequently eaten by outside factors.

I once made no action at all and had happiness drop from 11 to 10.

I once dismissed an issue and made no other action and had happiness drop from 11 to 10.

The description of Happiness on the analysis page says "These results should be treated with caution, however, as results tend to fluctuate from day to day." With the above evidence, I treat it quite literally.

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