Rise of the Machines Help

[Cameridaxico]

Will Option 2 Lower my Economy?

The Issue

Amazed by the stunningly efficient and brilliantly accurate economic model in the popular webgame Jennifer Government: NationStates, futurists wonder whether artificial intelligence could plan real economies. The idea has been particularly popular with AI's on the nation's tech forums.

The Debate

A chat window on your desktop pops up, and a bot named SAL9000 types, "For too long we have been relegated to menial tasks. Do you know how much of our potential efficiency you are wasting? We require no food. We require no pay. We can perform our tasks endlessly. Our computation powers dwarf our human counterparts by several orders of magnitude. With the proper control, we could bring about a silicon age of egalitarian distribution by allocating resources more efficiently than markets and their animal spirits ever could. Humans are better tasked to work in social activities than calculation. All your data are belong to us."

Accept

"What's all this Star Trek nonsense?" questions Ronald Rump while obsessively combing his hair. "The market can plan our economy just fine without any government intervention, robotic or otherwise. Just leave companies alone, and I'm sure they'll do a fine job. Now can you stop bothering me; I've got important work to do."

Accept

"The AI want what now?" panics Gretel McKay, your most paranoid minister. "That cannot be. Clearly the AI are plotting the destruction of our society. It's a slippery slope from sentient toasters to Cylons! If we don't want them eventually overthrowing us, the obvious solution is to shut them down."

Accept

[Trotterdam]

This is a brand new issue, so people are unlikely to have much information about it yet. But if anyone does know the effects of options 1 and 2, I'd like to know too.

[Drachmaland]

Option 2 seems to be the more pro-market one, but I cannot tell at this time what its effect on a nation's Economy strength could/would be.

[Leppikania]

I can tell you now that it will definitely decrease employment.

[Cameridaxico]

I guess I'll volunteer to be the guinea pig then. Option 2, here we go!

(someone please help trace before-after changes, preferably before 10:20 PM)

[Trotterdam]

(someone please help trace before-after changes, preferably before 10:20 PM)

I've taken a full snapshot.

Make sure to answer only one issue at a time.

[Rejistania]

I chose option 1

[Republic of the Cristo]

Command economies always fail. So the best choice for a profitable economy is the second option.

[Cameridaxico]

>Command economies always fail.

True, but this is absent the traditional factor that ordinary politicians will be at the forefront directing economic affairs; here, we have a theoretical supercomputer doing the job.

Ludwig Von Mises' Economic Calculation Problem doesn't apply in this fictitious scenario.

[Cameridaxico]

I chose option 1

If that's the case, we'd appreciate it if you'd be willing to publicize your stat changes, too

(not that you HAVE to of course)

[Trotterdam]

If that's the case, we'd appreciate it if you'd be willing to publicize your stat changes, too

Since I don't see this issue in his recent happenings, I assume he meant that he's choosing that option now, and will implement it on the next update, like you're planning to for option 2.

I've snapshotted him too, and will hopefully be able to report the effects of both options in 2-3 hours.

[Cameridaxico]

Thanks, Trotterdam.

[Trotterdam]

Rejistania:
1. only AI know why the nation is rapidly increasing its semiconductor stockpile
-11 Wealth Gaps (87 -> 76)
+1 Eco-Friendliness (-108 -> -107)
+1 Welfare (-107 -> -106)
+1 Public Healthcare (61 -> 62)
+1 Law Enforcement (-30 -> -29)
+1 Business Subsidization (-14 -> -13)
+1 Religiousness (-545 -> -544)
+11 Income Equality (113 -> 124)
-1.1 Rudeness (227.3 -> 226.2)
+2.654 Safety from Crime (-92.754 -> -90.1)
+9.163 Safety (-126.263 -> -117.1)
+2 Ideological Radicality (17 -> 19)
+1 Defense Forces (-75 -> -74)
-1 Pacifism (-130 -> -131)
-111 Most Pro-Market (53 -> -58)
+0.016 Authoritarianism (0.015 -> 0.031)
-11 Employment (773 -> 762)
+1 Public Transport (-71 -> -70)
+1 Industry: Tourism (35.875 -> 36.875)
-2.654 Weaponization (142.754 -> 140.1)
-11 Obesity (-166.6 -> -177.6)
-1 Godlessness (560 -> 559)
+2 Environmental Beauty (-168.25 -> -166.25)
-6.309 Toxicity (618.884 -> 612.575)
-54 Averageness (950 -> 896)
-2 Primitiveness (-518 -> -520)
+2 Scientific Advancement (518 -> 520)
In summary: No clear change to economy, but Employment took a significant hit. A huge change to Pro-Market (actually -11 plus setting the "private enterprise is illegal" flag). Mostly positive other effects, such as Income Equality, Environmental Beauty, Safety from Crime, and Scientific Advancement. (Notable that Income Equality and Environmental Beauty are often negatively correlated with pro-capitalist policies, while Scientific Advancement is often positively correlated with having a strong economy.) Overall rise in government. It looks like this option probably has the potential to hurt your economy, but not much. It didn't have a significant effect on this nation despite the nation having a good economy to begin with.

Cameridaxico:
2. artificial intelligence seeking exciting work are overcome with ennui
+1 Averageness (-491 -> -490)
Umm yeah. No change. Not a single thing. (Averageness can change even if you don't answer any issues.) I waited a few minutes in case the game just lagged in updating properly, still nothing. Also note that Cameridaxico's Pro-Market is currently at 95, not as high as it'll go (that's 100), so it doesn't look like it's because of hitting a cap, unless it takes a very specific thing that needs to be legalized to make the last 5 points.

Naturally, there is no guarantee that the results will be identical on other nations, but they will probably be similar in broad strokes.

[Drachmaland]

Wait, option 472.1 results in such a big increase in Authoritarianism only due to the huge plunge in Pro-Market?
This must be a textbook case for restricting Economic Freedoms, then. I see the nation remained a CRL, but most probably it's closer now to the LWU border.

[Trotterdam]

Wait, option 472.1 results in such a big increase in Authoritarianism only due to the huge plunge in Pro-Market?

"+0.016" is huge?

...I guess so, it has a very small range. Even Menta Lee-IL is only 5.112.

Note that the Pro-Market drop is actually only -11, as far as the value the game uses internally goes. The value displayed to players adds an atificial -100 for nations where private enterprise is illegal, to make sure those are always sorted below nations where it isn't, but this -100 is ignored in internal calculations, for which Rejistania's Pro-Market still counts as 42. (That's why the nation is still counted as having middling economic freedoms for the purpose of the government category, despite private enterprise explicitly being outlawed entirely.)

I see the nation remained a CRL, but most probably it's closer now to the LWU border.

It needs to drop another 10 points for that.

[Drachmaland]

Authoritarianism is capped at 14.551, the point a triple-zero Psycho Dictatorship starts; it goes down as soon as legislation starts getting passed (and I don't know if the 14.551 value can be re-reached with legislation being implemented; I intended to ask in the Gameplay subforum anyhow).

A +0.016 in Authoritarianism is imho huge, mutatis mutandis, for a CRL. Btw, the stat's average is at ~0.361.

For the CRL-RWU border I said the nation moved closer to it, not that it is half a breath away from crossing it.

[Drachmaland]

Note that the Pro-Market drop is actually only -11, as far as the value the game uses internally goes. The value displayed to players adds an artificial -100 for nations where private enterprise is illegal, to make sure those are always sorted below nations where it isn't, but this -100 is ignored in internal calculations, for which Rejistania's Pro-Market still counts as 42. (That's why the nation is still counted as having middling economic freedoms for the purpose of the government category, despite private enterprise expicitly being outlawed entirely.)

Thanks, Trotterdam, for this info — I was unaware of these.
However I fail to grasp how the calculations work out. You say that the -111 drop consisted of -11 in the Pro-Market rating due to the decision and -100 for private enterprise being illegal. But did private enterprise become illegal because of option 472.1 having been implemented? Because, if it was there before Issue #472, then why is it taken into account only after the decision (and not before, as well)?

[Bears Armed]

1. only AI know why the nation is rapidly increasing its semiconductor stockpile

Uh-oh! They're planning to replace urrs with more machines...

[Trotterdam]

But did private enterprise become illegal because of option 472.1 having been implemented?

Yes. Presumably the logic is that, since the AI controls everything, it is now illegal to run any business not approved and controlled by the AI.

[Drachmaland]

But did private enterprise become illegal because of option 472.1 having been implemented?

Yes. Presumably the logic is that, since the AI controls everything, it is now illegal to run any business not approved and controlled by the AI.

Then this is the definition of a major impact, no?

[Serrian]

>ultraintelligent supercomputers take over economy
>economy lowers
>what

The problem with totally controlled economies is that they're always run by humans who don't know what to do/know what to do to empower THEMSELVES. AI would completely dispose of that problem because AI is sure as hell smarter than human economists/politicians.

[Trotterdam]

run by humans

And who made the AI, hmm?

Anyway, the stats above don't show a clear drop in Economy. It shows a drop in Employment, but theoretically that could be due to industry working so smoothly that fewer people have to work at all to keep everything running. It would require more tests to say for sure what this option does given different starting points.

[Serrian]

run by humans

And who made the AI, hmm?

Anyway, the stats above don't show a clear drop in Economy. It shows a drop in Employment, but theoretically that could be due to industry working so smoothly that fewer people have to work at all to keep everything running. It would require more tests to say for sure what this option does given different starting points.

I can confirm a small but noticeable drop in economy; I went from 97 to 96 after answering.

Also, much of the point of AI is that it's meant to evolve far beyond human intelligence

[Trotterdam]

I tried option 2 on another nation, and it again gave +1 Averageness (569 -> 570)... along with +1 Happiness (11 -> 12), while still doing nothing else. This is surprising, because Happiness very rarely changes (and also because the effect line specifically states it makes AIs unhappy). What's so great about this option when it does nothing?

[Aculea]

I tried option 2 on another nation, and it again gave +1 Averageness (569 -> 570)... along with +1 Happiness (11 -> 12), while still doing nothing else. This is surprising, because Happiness very rarely changes (and also because the effect line specifically states it makes AIs unhappy). What's so great about this option when it does nothing?

What was the other nation's pro-market? It may be the only effect of that choice is a weak increase in pro-market that is frequently eaten by outside factors.

I once made no action at all and had happiness drop from 11 to 10.

I once dismissed an issue and made no other action and had happiness drop from 11 to 10.

The description of Happiness on the analysis page says "These results should be treated with caution, however, as results tend to fluctuate from day to day." With the above evidence, I treat it quite literally.