Unibot wrote:Using some extrapolated statistic data, related to a weak correlation with proposal length and a high correlation of stackers, assuming that 10ki and Alsted will stomp, I've made a weighted average based on correlation and predicted the final turnout to be a record low, % 13.45 approval.
Using standard deviation (p(X < 50)) that only provides me with like 25 to 9 odds (0.35736) that this passes, so that has to be wrong. Anyone better at constructing betting odds?
Dammit, no one took any bets on this!
I would have liked my odds now...



