Thanks for the the comment
Free Republics wrote:The thing is that the "additive" style mods are probably more fair in an environment where the matches are RPed and success is supposed to correlate with the quality and frequency of RPs (such as the World Cup, regional tournaments, youth WCs, etc.). Your approach is probably more realistic for domestic leagues where its perfectly fine to do something that wouldn't be "fair" in an international tournament.
I designed the code for my national league, so as of the current version, it doesn't have a RP bonus modifier. Do you think I could add an additive modifier to the current code so that the style relationship is kept as is and the RP modifier is applied in a fair way? It would mean a bad team would relatively increase their chances of snatching a draw from a good team if they put all their efforts into defending, while also reflecting the quality of their RP. It would be a 1990 Cameroon. The underdog defending and counterattacking, against all odds, beats the group favorite. It would give rise to feats very fun to RP and would expand the range of possibilities.
The RP bonus could be applied to the final score, generated with the base characteristics of each team, or directly to the scoring probabilities, along with the base characteristics. I'm not completely familiar with the day to day of NS Sports, and I don't want to waste your time with crazy ideas. In my opinion, fair results can be generated, which additionally give a better representation of the characteristics of each particular team, in a more realistic way.
Free Republics wrote:All of the above comes with the caveat that I haven't looked at your actual spreadsheet yet so I'm not familiar with the logic of your algorithm.
As I said, it uses binomial probability X ~ B (n, p).
n is the number of attacks. It has a value of (4000 + Home Advantage Bonus + 1500 * Team A Style Modifier + 1500 * Team B Style Modifier) * Rank Modifier
More clearly: (4000 + HAB + 1500 * ASM + 1500 * BSM) * RM
p is the probability of an attack ending in a goal. In the current version it is 0.00035 and doesn't change.
The
Home Advantage Bonus is 500.
The
Team A Style Modifier and
Team B Style Modifier range from -1 (-5 style) to 1 (5 style).
The
Rank Modifier ranges from 0.75 (a much worse team) to 1.25 (a much better team). As you can see, Home Advantage Bonus and both team style modifiers further modify the amount of attacks based on the range difference. A good team makes good use of their home advantage, while a bad one hardly increases their chances. The same happens with Style Modifiers.
Each team uses its own random number between 0 and 1, which is compared to the thresholds assigned to values of x=1, x=2, x=3 ... x=7 goals scored. The x's are deduced from the binomial probability cumulative density equation. I made it up to x=7 because the scorinator is made for relatively similar teams. You are not supposed to play a match between Liverpool and a team from San Marino. The lowest rank would be the worst teams in a UCL group phase.