WCoH 42: Ground roundup, Lions need a win on the final day
by Omega Lion
Just come through, Lions!.
With the end of the World Cup of Hockey 42 group stage, I've decided to look back on my predictions from the beginning of the group to see how I did. Plus, the Lions' chances going into the final matchday!
No luck needed
Gyatso-Kai (4)
Mercedini (6)
Abanhfleft (10)
This tier was basically guaranteed playoffs, and look at that, the top three teams did make the playoffs! Of course, Mercedini finished first and Gyatso-Kai and Abanhfleft are tied for second, but the point stands. Technically, all three of these teams are within reach of the Lions, being either three or one points ahead of them, but Gyatso-Kai and Abanhfleft play unranked teams, and Mercedini is unlikely to ruin a brilliant group stage by stumbling against middling Gergary. This lot are playing for the best seed they can get.
Need a bit of luck
Fluvannia (16)
I put Fluvannia in the "bit of luck" category because I thought they might face challenges from teams like Anthor, Gergary, or Nova Anglicana for the fourth spot. The Bears actually suffered a bit of bad luck, as they lost to United States of Devonta on MD3 and lost to Le Choix on MD11 in overtime. On the other hand, they did hand Mercedini their only regulation defeat. They just weren't able to get over the hump against Gyatso-Kai and Abanhfleft, which combined with their losses to Devonta and Le Choix, mean they find themselves two points behind the Lions for the final playoff spot. So was I wrong? Did they need a lot of luck or did they just not get lucky? No, I'm right, it's the results who are wrong. Reality just didn't co-operate with me. On the final day, they still need a bit of luck. Behind the Lions, they need a win against Suimede in regulation and for the Lions to lose, overtime or otherwise, or if they win in overtime, they need a Lions regulation loss. It's not that unlikely, but they still need to get lucky.
Need a lot of luck
United States of Devonta (20)
Anthor (24)
Gergary (27)
Nova Anglicana (35)
Suimede (UR)
Le Choix (UR)
This one was my fudge group, where I basically lumped anyone I thought had a shot in a barrel and made a case for them. In retrospect, I was wrong about some of these. For example, Devonta didn't need a lot of luck, they just needed a little extra luck. I underestimated the 20th ranked team, who is currently tied with Fluvannia on 22 points. They too, experienced a shock loss to Le Choix, or otherwise they might have found themselves in playoff position come the final matchday. I similarly missed on Anthor; I thought they would be an outside competitor, but they really stunk. They've lost eight of their eleven matches and looked bad doing it.
And I'll say it, I think I missed on Nova Anglicana. I thought they would need a lot of luck to make it to the playoffs, but as is, if they can defeat Le Choix, they're in. It wasn't luck that they began 6-0-0, as they only allowed four goals and sported a +11 differential at that point. They beat who they should have beaten in Grey County, Suimede, and Salzcovia, and looked like the better team against Anthor, Gergary, and Devonta. I thought they'd be lucky to make it to 6-0-0, then would need an upset over one of the top four to make it through, but even then it wasn't a sure thing. Instead, the Lions have gone 4-0-0 against unranked teams, looked indubitably better than the mid-ranked squads, and got their upset, defeating Abanhfleft 3-2. I think I should have put them in the bit of luck category, as that's more or less all they need tonight in order to advance to the playoffs.
I was right about Gergary, Le Choix, and Suimede, though. They needed a lot of luck, and although they played well, they just didn't have enough in the tank. They each have five wins, and are currently around even on goal differential, which is a good showing. Their middling record should set them up for more success next time around.
Better luck next time
Grey County (UR)
Salzcovia (UR)
Islands of Ventro (UR)
I don't think I was wrong here. Grey County and Salzcovia have a combined three points between them, while Islands of Ventro exceeded expectations, picking up three wins and scoring more than three goals per game, but they were never really in contention either.
Final Matchday Notes
The Lions picked up the big win they needed last night, knocking off 10th ranked Abanhfleft to get themselves to eight wins and 24 points, two points ahead of Fluvannia and on the brink of the playoffs. Sammy Jensen was once again in the thick of it, scoring at 4:42 with just the quickest snap shot you'll ever see. Just like that, the Lions were up 1-0. But Emmanuel Macalipay struck back at 12:05, taking advantage of Brett McQueen being screened by Lance Valencia. At the end of one period, it was all tied at one goal apiece. In the second period, Shayne Dimaculangan, the Fleftic right wing, was able to deflect a pass and ended up with a breakaway. He didn't miss, and at 6:39, the top-10 team was in the lead and it looked like they might send Nova Anglicana to their fourth loss against higher ranked teams and fourth in five games. But Philippe Laurent, the Labrador Caribou defenseman, hit a heavy slap shot that whizzed past the veteran Jeremy Gonzalez and tied the score with time winding down in the second, at 19:11. Just like that, the momentum shifted and the air was let out of the Abanhfleft balloon. It would take another unlikely goalscorer, the fourth line's Brandon Scanlon, to lift the Lions to victory, however. His wrister off of a pass from his club teammate Quinn Baird at 8:38 sealed the win for the Lions and meant they would have something to play for on the final day.
But now for Le Choix, the pesky underdog who have already knocked off Devonta and Fluvannia. They'd like nothing better than to end on a win, even if they are eliminated. Mathias Adnet, the stellar netminder, and Cécile Lamar and Régine Tailler, the top two defensive players, will be key for the closed-off theocracy. They are a big reason why Le Choix has only allowed twenty goals in eleven matches, the same as the Lions. They have only scored twenty-one, a good bit fewer than the Lions' thirty. La Lumière will likely look to turtle up as they attempt to play spoiler in this crucial final game. They defeated Fluvannia by holding the formidable Bears attack (which has scored 54 goals to date, the most in the tournament) to just a single goal and getting a score in overtime. They're making their debut, but they've proven to be far more dangerous than the average team coming in for the first time. I'd still bet on a Lions win, but Le Choix won't make it easy, nor should any be surprised if the Lions are blinded by the Light.
More from Lion's Roar
Celebrating the Campionato win
Sweep of Q&S puts Lions into WBC playoffs
Le Choix live gamethread (all day!)
(OOC: Logo at top shamelessly cribbed from Pride of Detroit, Detroit Lions blog. The opinions expressed above are the opinions of the writer and not necessarily indicative of the opinions of Nova Anglicans or the user behind Nova Anglicana.)