Hey guys! Welcome back to my corner of the internet for everything college football! I, of course, usually cover the NSCF, especially the two Banijan schools, as well as domestic college football here in Banija. I'm a University of Moravica grad- aka, we don't like either of the Banijan schools. But of course, due to physical proximity, they get the Lion's share of this blog's attention.
So I woke up today and chose violence. And I decided- why not start a debate that will piss off every single member of the college football universe? Everyone needs an outlet for anger, and sometimes, CFB is that outlet.
And so I'm going to do one of my boldest moves, and answer the question that will never have an answer. What conference, in NSCF 23, is the strongest conference?
We're going to use two metrics. The first, is a conference's total out of conference record. And the second, is OSPI. And the third? OOC record of the conference champion. If a conference can be defined by its best, if their best team did well, then- it reflects that the conference prepared them well. And then, with the magic formula devised by me and me alone, we'll rank the conferences, from six(weakest) to one(most depth). You may agree with me. But you probably won't.
And, as much as we hate to say it- we've got to give credit here to the Big 8 schools, the only conference where all six schools played a full slate of three non-conference games. The more games the merrier! Let's get going!
Total Non-Conference Record
Big 8: 9-9. Winning % of .500.
Celestia: 6-7. Winning % of .462.
Horizon: 6-6. Winning % of .500.
Mineral: 7-7. Winning % of .500.
Woodlands: 6-3. Winning % of .667.
Zephyr: 3-5. Winning % of .375
So what's the analysis here? It's interesting, and there are a few key takeaways.
#1- The Big 8 played the most games. Games played, of course, can effect these numbers. The Bgi 8 should be given bonus points for playing the most. All six teams filled their non-conference slate, something no other conference can say. 18 out of 18 possible games. That meant both their bottom adn their top teams were regularly getting tested, while other conferences, like Woodlands, only their top teams played.
#2- Woodlands have the highest winning percentage?? Not what we expected when we went into this. Some of this is a factor of the fact that only their top 3 teams played non-conference games, with the cellar dwellars foregoing weeks 11-13 entirely. But some of this is just that their damn good. Their brand new school, New Lakeland, is 12-1 and the #1 overall seed for the playoffs. The path to Busukuma goes through Cassadaigua. But both Quebecois schools behind them were strong as well. Saguenay had a big time win over the #2 overall team in the NSCF, Northern Moravica, while St. Croix notched a 2-1 conference record. Well done to those three schools.
#3- The only conference that had an undefeated week was the Horizon, whose Week 12 was absolutely stellar. 4-0 is 4-0, and there's no way around it. These weren't cheap wins either. Felswyr State won on Senior night at the Istria Lightning Yard. Cavsar whipped a solid Trent State team. And with Diamond Rhine back, Sadeg State were able to down Cold Hill University, at home. That week showcased overall excellence. Unfortunately for them, it was sandwiched by 1-3 weeks on either side.
#4- A few teams went undefeated in OOC play. New Lakeland, most famously. But what about a few surprising? The Salamantic Universities finished 6-4 in conference play, while Freedom's Altar was 4-6. But they both came out swinging in OOC play. The latter Celestia conference school beat the Squid Armed Forces Academy, Lismore Christian, and Raynor University. While Freedom's Altar downed Akers, Northern Dinagat, and Hoofstra.
Now, let's dive deeper into the analysis. Part of what makes a conference strong are its numbers of elite squads. How many elite teams are in each conference? Let's find out. There are 36 teams in the NSCF- so we'll do a sampling of the top 6 of a number of advanced stats that the organization keeps. How many schools from each conference are in the top 6 of the following categories- Adjusted Offense, Adjusted Defense, Adjusted Win Margin, and OSPI? If you're in the top sixth of your league, in a sport like this, you are probably elite.
# of Schools in the top 6 of OSPI
Big 8: 1. Cold Hill(3).
Celestia: 2. Northern Moravica(2) and Loyola-Istria(4).
Horizon: 1. Felswyr State(5).
Mineral: None.
Woodlands: 1. New Lakeland(1).
Zephyr: 1. Mar Sara Tech(6).
This is, of course, in a sense, the second most important ranking- behind the conference standings that determine an automatic playoff berth with three games to go. Here, the Celestia shows out. Both Banijan schools in the top 4, and it will be the first time both have first round byes from the playoffs since NSCF 19, when Loyola and NMU were ranked in the top 2. Considering the two schools combined for one playoff appearance and 0 playoff wins last year, it's good for the country. Well, our country. Every other conference has at least one. The Mineral Conference takes a hit here, with 0 teams in the top 6 of the OSPI.
# of Schools in the top 6 of Adjusted Win Margin
Big 8: 2. Kohnhead City(2) and Cold Hill(4).
Celestia:2. Northern Moravica(5) and Loyola-Istria(6).
Horizon: None.
Mineral: None.
Woodlands: None.
Zephyr: 2. Raynor University(1) and Mar Sara Tech(3).
Three conferences contribute to this section. The Zephyr, Big 8, and Celestia each having two teams here makes things interesting. Of course, you've got to put Raynor and Mar Sara Tech here. It is a dominance ranking- and all six of these schools showed that they could really dominate a game from start to finish. Cold Hill got blown out once too, which honestly makes it more impressive they found their way to the top 4 in adjusted win margin when they've got a 37 point conference loss on the books.
# of Schools in the top 6 of Adjusted Offense
Big 8: 4. Kohnhead City(1), Cold Hill(2), Swisston City(4), and Richardson University(5).
Celestia: None.
Horizon: None.
Mineral: None.
Woodlands: None.
Zephyr: 2. Raynor University(3), and Mar Sara Tech(6).
Going into the season, everybody said that the Big 8 was going to be a shootout, and it was. How often do you have a year where Loyola doesn't' finish anywhere near the top 6 in Adjusted Offense? Loyola's not even in the top 10, all the way down at 11th. The Big 8 has four of the top 5 offenses in the NSCF. The other two in the top six, unsurprisingly, are the electric Vanorian schools. Three of these schools have automatic playoff berths, and it's likely that up to 5 could go into the playoffs.
# of Schools in the top 6 of Adjusted Defense
Big 8: None.
Celestia: 3. Northern Moravica(3), Northern Dinagat State(5), and the Salamantic Universities(6).
Horizon: 1. Hoofstra University(1).
Mineral: 1. Freedom's Altar(2).
Woodlands: None.
Zephyr: 1. Raynor University(4).
The strangest part. Shoutout to Raynor University- they're the only school that is top 6 adjusted offense and top 6 adjusted defense, which is insanely impressive. They're a complete football team on both sides of the ball. Northern Moravica is the only other playoff team who was top 6 in adjusted defense. The state of the sport, eh? Freedom's Altar, Hoofstra, Northern Dinagat State, and the Salamantics, the other elite defense, are all unlikely to make the playoffs. If they don't, we could have a year where just two of the top six defenses in the sport go to the playoffs. Wouldn't that be insane?
Also, shoutout to the Celestia for playing real football, with three of the top 6 defenses in the sport, unlike the Big 8 which only wants shootouts. Defense wins championships, baby!
We've gone through all of the stats. We've crushed the numbers via our top secret formula, and we have a definitive ranking of the conferences. It is damned close. But we must make these decisions, right?
Get ready to get mad!
Conference Strength Ranking
#6 Mineral
#5 Zephyr
#4 Horizon
#3 Woodlands
#2 Celestia
#1 Big 8
This wasn't easy. But the arcade conference, as much as we hate to say it, is the toughest conference in college football. It's all about defense, of course- but their offensive revolution has led them to success, and they have to be ranked #1.
The Mineral Conference went .500, which is good. But they lack in the key categories. 0 teams in the top 6 of Adjusted Win Margin, 0 teams with a top 6 offense, and 0 teams in the top 6 of the OSPI. They're the only conference with 0 teams in the top 6 of the OSPI. After looking at that, we had really no choice but to rank them #6. And then 5th, is the Zephyr. Now, this is no knock on the Vanorian twosome- Mar Sara Tech and Raynor University should be feared. They're elite teams, and dominated the conference. But the conference is incredibly thin behind them, and most would agree. Even with historic schools in the conference, like Cenesis Naval and Bowerstone, those two have really fallen off in recent years. It's fairly clear cut they can't be ranked higher than this.
It got tougher after this. But decisions had to be made. In fourth, we'll go with the Horizon. There's a lot we like about this conference. But? No teams in the top 6 of Adjusted Win Margin. No teams in the Top 6 on Adjusted Offense. And their only team in the top 6 of adjusted defense, Hoofstra University, is not making the playoffs. It's clear. And then third, we have the Woodlands. The way New Lakeland came, in year 1, and are able to take in conference dominance and turn it into out of conference dominance, shows the depth of the conference. Saguenay and St. Croix are always great. You'd want to see a little more from the other three in the conference, though, before giving them a better ranking.
And then, for the top 2. The Celestia will have to rank second. From top to bottom, it is a strong conference. The Salamantics went 6-4, and weren't close to winning the conference, really. But- they still came out and swept their OOC schedule. It's a good sign for the Celestia. The three top AO schools constantly battle for supremacy. But the strongest conference has to be the Big 8. The most active conference. But it's the most chaotic conference. In that conference, anyone can truly beat anyone. And they've shown their strength in non-con. Sometimes, they cannabilize their own. Could Swisston City do better in a weaker conference? Probably, but look at them, sitting at 6-7.
There you have it!
Up next- if we got to design our ideal conference alignment setup, what would the NSCF conferences look like?