After weeks of negotiation between the members of the Ramsey government, the committee chairs, and the opposition, the constituent pieces of the Ramsey government's budget have passed all of the relevant committees and it will be brought to the floor for a full vote this week. All of the respective committee chairs, and the powerful head of the Budget committee, Lawrence Foster, have had their say and have produced a budget for this fiscal year.
So what are the top line numbers? Tax receipts, which are still in line with the previous tax system, are projected to be A£183 billion, which gives the government A£3 billion extra to play with. However, in line with promises, the government has elected to cut the budget for this year, producing a budget with a total of A£174 billion. This means that Ramsey's first big promise, to produce a surplus, has been meet, with a surplus of A£9 billion. This is an A£6 billion cut from the last Blackwood budget, which included things like high-speed rail and a carbon tax. Both of those things have been stripped out of this year's budget, with the carbon tax being eliminated by the tax law and the high-speed rail project being farmed out to private companies to complete and operate.
In terms of cuts and increases, Ramsey has also been able to deliver on his second major promise, to increase the defense budget. The Ministry of Defense will receive an additional A£0.6 billion this year, mainly going to recruit more troops and start construction on at least one new major warship, as well as increasing troop pay. This isn't as much as Defense Minister Rear Admiral Hugh Townsend had asked for, but the Libertarian part of the coalition government made it clear that while they didn't really want any spending increases, A£0.6 billion was the largest they would swallow. The Finance Ministry is also receiving an extra A£0.3 billion this year, with it mainly going to efforts to digitize records, increase the ease of the online tax filing system, and "examine waste in the government", as William Dawson puts it. Justice and Interior will also see increases, of A£0.3 billion and A£0.4 billion, respectively, mostly going to grants for additional provincial police and security agents to monitor "anti-Nova Anglican activity". Agriculture is getting a small boost, mostly to farm subsidies, while Culture Minister Bethany Cohen won an additional A£0.1 billion for her ministry, which will go to support national sporting teams.
But by far the largest increase is to the Ministry of Immigration and its minister, Christopher Mathewson. They will see a 10% increase in their budget, or A£1 billion. Although the coalition still remains disunited on how to reform immigration, the weight of the People's Party and National Party forced the Libertarians to accept more money for the ministry. It will go to hiring more agents, a more vigorous effort to find undocumented immigrants (though the Libertarians say they will work to ensure there are no abuses), and increased border security. It says something about the priorities of the coalition that immigration received a larger increase than defense, both about the PP/National group, who wanted to increase both, and the Libertarians, who would have liked to have seen cuts in both.
Spending cuts are mostly centered in four ministries: Education, Foreign Affairs, Infrastructure, and Environment, though Commerce & Labor saw a 20% cut, or A£0.4 billion. The cuts at Commerce & Labor are mostly related to the government's deregulation push, as they will need fewer employees if they are enforcing fewer regulations. But the other four ministries saw cuts of at least A£2 billion, ranging from a 20% cut at the high end (Environment) to 9.5% at the low end (Education). The cuts at Environment are mostly related to less revenue from the carbon tax, meaning staffing cuts, plus fewer regulations and no carbon tax to enforce, though the government did shuffle some money away from green subsidies towards fossil fuel extraction.
As mentioned, the A£2.5 billion in cuts at Infrastructure are mostly related to the privatisation of the high-speed rail project in New Brunswick, but they also include less money for rural broadband and local infrastructure projects. Expect this to be the opening salvo of future cuts at the ministry, as the parties that make up the government have long disliked the heavy public spending in lieu of private development or even public-private partnerships. Foreign Affairs has also long been a target of the parties of the right, and the A£2 billion cut from their budget includes a good chunk of the foreign aid that Nova Anglicana provides, as well as cuts to the Anglican Service Corps, the humanitarian aid group that has been deployed to multiple war-torn areas throughout the multiverse. Although defenders of both of these programs point to their role in maintaining peace and boosting Nova Anglicana's reputation, the right sees them as mostly useless bleeding-heart programs that waste taxpayer money without benefiting citizens. Finally, the Ministry of Education will lose A£2 billion, mostly to staffing cuts and enforcing regulations that the government sees as unnecessary. However, it's a good bet to expect spending cuts at this ministry next year if the government passes an education reform bill.
The PM was enthusiastic about the budget, saying, "We have delivered a surplus while making Nova Anglicana safer from foes both within and without, while not touching a penny of the Health or Social Services budget. This is a budget that cuts wasteful spending while not hurting the most vulnerable in society." While he is right that the cuts don't come to Health or Social Services, and many of the cuts have to do with regulation or staffing levels, it's not the whole picture. Cutting regulation and staffing typically leads to worse outcomes for workers, whose companies have less oversight. Additionally, cuts at Environment could lead to pain for First Nations people, who often bear the brunt of extractive and other environmentally risky industries and project. Finally, cynics will point out that the government more or less couldn't touch Health and Social Services, as most spending in both of those ministries are considered entitlements that require legislative changes in order to change the level of spending. Still, cuts at both of those ministries are a good bet if the government is able to pass its reform bills in the fall session.
As for the opposition, there will be debate and they have delaying tactics, but if they don't have the votes, they don't have the votes. The entirety of the PJP and the Stewardship Party are united in opposing the budget, as they indicated they wouldn't vote for a budget that cut spending from the previous year's budget. As for Liberal Secularist leader Emily Waterford, she has most of her caucus lined up in opposition, mostly to increased immigration enforcement and education spending cuts, but the two members who voted for the tax cut, Katie Logan and Lucas Garrett, have yet to indicate how they'll vote. Sources close to Waterford say that she's confident she'll have a caucus united in opposing the budget. Still, a united opposition is not enough. They would need four "nay" votes on the government's side, and the moderate wing of the PP isn't likely to deliver all of those votes. Opposition Leader Hal Blackwood decried the spending cuts, especially to his prized high-speed rail project, saying that the new budget "continues the process of undermining the role of the government as we know it" and "will expose workers and others to dangerous safety risks, while lining the pockets of private industry."
Blackwood can huff and puff all he wants, but barring a late shift, it looks like Ramsey and his government have this one all sewn up. This would be part two of their ambitious campaign to reshape the Nova Anglican state, and would give them momentum heading into the recess. If the budget proves to be popular with or at least not opposed by the public, that would be a signal for the government to go even harder after the recess in reshaping education, healthcare, welfare, and other parts of the PJP legacy. We'll see what happens, but for now, it looks like the Ramsey government will get their budget.
Ministries receiving cuts
-Education: A£2.0B
-Foreign Affairs: A£2.0B
-Infrastructure: A£2.5B
-Commerce & Labor: A£0.4B
-Environment: A£2.0B
Total cuts: A£8.9B
Ministries receiving increases
-Defense: A£0.6B
-Finance: A£0.3B
-Justice: A£0.3B
-Interior: A£0.4B
-Immigration: A£1.0B
-Agriculture: A£0.2B
-Culture: A£0.1B
-Total increases: A£2.9B
Ministries staying the same
-Health
-Social Services
By the numbers
-%Diff from previous FY: -3.33%
-TotalDiff from previous FY: -A£6.0B
-% of GDP: 37.9%
-%Diff as % of GDP: -2.1%
-Total surplus: A£9B
-% held as surplus: 4.9%
Ministry Spending %
Defense A£5.4B 03.10
Finance A£3.0B 01.72
Education A£19B 10.92
Foreign Affairs A£16B 09.20
Health A£39B 22.41
Social Services A£42B 24.14
Infrastructure A£15.5B 08.91
Justice A£6.3B 03.62
Commerce & Labor A£1.6B 00.92
Interior A£4.2B 02.41
Environment A£8B 04.60
Immigration A£11B 06.29
Agriculture A£2.0B 01.15
Culture & Sport A£1.0B 00.57