Posted: Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:15 am
Dragonfly camp, part 2
"Julien, reply as soon as you can to this message. NT is losing momentum, they're looking at me for it. Have you looked at turnarounds yet?"
"Shimoda, please look at the documents I sent. Should take an hour to read through at most. Regression to the mean is what you're looking for, and it's not just a phenomenon that happens with overperforming teams."
"Mr. Shimoda, I'll be honest. The Assocation never believed in the statistical approach you preached, but we thought it was very much worth the try. And as head coach, I'm in a weird position. I'm a fan of the experiment, but I'm also supposed to represent the Assocation, and they're thinking of calling it all off. Besides, given the string of bad results, they feel like it's impacting the team negatively."
"I know, the Assocation is conservative. I've had trouble hiring my statisticians at the Admirals as well, initially they did allow us to sign them, so I called them coaching interns, and all of a sudden they were ok with it. I'm aware of the bad spell. When I was just brought in, the Dragonflies started competing for first place, and to be honest, we're still up there. Second place, few matches to go. We will do this. Stay second or move up to first. I'm certain."
"What, as part of the experiment, makes you so certain? What data backs up your claim?"
"I just have a very firm belief in this team..."
"And that doesn't fly. It's times like these where I honestly wonder if you're really into this data-gathering, or just preaching it without the experience... But I've got a deal in mind. Look, the Assocation isn't only blaming the bad results on you. At all. They take the experiment as some sort of side story for this Classic, if it pays off, it's good, and if it doesn't, they've got a reason to ban the entire practice from the NT and the league. So, usually the first to get sacked is the head coach. Which puts me in a funny position. Either I throw you under the bus and try to keep my job for at least another Classic, which is a huge gamble. Or I get sacked by the Assocation and your tasks with the NT end here as well. No matter what, it's very possible that the data experiment won't make it to match day 30. And that's where my proposition comes in. I'm fairly positive about what you preach, and I want to retain you all 30 qualifiers as well as the Classic, should we go there, and I want to reform the Assocation slightly so that actual innovation can take place outside of the amateur leagues. Ko-orenite baseball is at a standstill, and the Assocation is happy to only have teams in two out of twelve provinces. There is some following outside of these two, obviously, but a travelling team that only plays in every city once in six home games... it's just not going to cut it. The Wanderers underperform anyway, given that every game feels like an away game to them that way."
"So I'm going to lose this no matter what. I won't stay with the NT, but you're saying they might block my plans with the Admirals as well?"
"Right now, you know they do have the power, every team is eventually employed by the Assocation."
"Right, so what can you do about this?"
"Ok. I make sure you can stay with the NT. If I succeed, and we make the Classic, and we're both retained all the way through, while you support the team in a meaningful way, then you've got to do something for me. You have to move the Admirals to Intermare province."
"Do what?"
"That's right, move them to northern Ko-oren. Your philosophy is that baseball will grow from a better way to approach games. My philosophy is that baseball will grow if we just make it more accessible to more people, and Intermare doesn't have cricket or baseball right now. The Wanderers will just play in Greencaster and Willowbourne, in the southwest. The Admirals will take Intermare, in the north. The rest of the league, all ten teams, will continue to fight for scraps in the southeast. But you only have to move them there in case we make the Classic and we both keep our jobs here. Should we get fired before the end of the Classic, the team can stay in Aviansola, but I want you to hire me as an assistant. I need a job too, after all."
"That's a dirty thing. What if I just quit now on my own accord?"
"You can try... but how will that look to the Assocation? They're already scrutinising your plan, anyway. You have nothing to win right now, things can only remain constant for you at best."
"That's beyond dirty. Give me a day to get back to you. I want my philosophy to win in the end, but is it worth it to me to move to Intermare? We're going to take a massive hit in attendance, sponsors, and the like. And won't the Assocation block the move?"
"The Assocation only employs. They don't own the teams."
"But aren't they going to make less money with a move? They will never accept this. They only employ, but the salaries have to go come from somewhere!"
"The Admirals already rank dead last in the league in income generated. The Admirals already operate on a loss. The Assocation doesn't care, as long as an Intermare team won't lose them more money. And whatever they check, an Intermare will remain more economically viable. The dossier is already there, don't worry. I checked. There's some privilege you get as a head coach, after all."
"Give me a day. Come on man..."
"Julien, reply as soon as you can to this message. NT is losing momentum, they're looking at me for it. Have you looked at turnarounds yet?"
"Shimoda, please look at the documents I sent. Should take an hour to read through at most. Regression to the mean is what you're looking for, and it's not just a phenomenon that happens with overperforming teams."
"Mr. Shimoda, I'll be honest. The Assocation never believed in the statistical approach you preached, but we thought it was very much worth the try. And as head coach, I'm in a weird position. I'm a fan of the experiment, but I'm also supposed to represent the Assocation, and they're thinking of calling it all off. Besides, given the string of bad results, they feel like it's impacting the team negatively."
"I know, the Assocation is conservative. I've had trouble hiring my statisticians at the Admirals as well, initially they did allow us to sign them, so I called them coaching interns, and all of a sudden they were ok with it. I'm aware of the bad spell. When I was just brought in, the Dragonflies started competing for first place, and to be honest, we're still up there. Second place, few matches to go. We will do this. Stay second or move up to first. I'm certain."
"What, as part of the experiment, makes you so certain? What data backs up your claim?"
"I just have a very firm belief in this team..."
"And that doesn't fly. It's times like these where I honestly wonder if you're really into this data-gathering, or just preaching it without the experience... But I've got a deal in mind. Look, the Assocation isn't only blaming the bad results on you. At all. They take the experiment as some sort of side story for this Classic, if it pays off, it's good, and if it doesn't, they've got a reason to ban the entire practice from the NT and the league. So, usually the first to get sacked is the head coach. Which puts me in a funny position. Either I throw you under the bus and try to keep my job for at least another Classic, which is a huge gamble. Or I get sacked by the Assocation and your tasks with the NT end here as well. No matter what, it's very possible that the data experiment won't make it to match day 30. And that's where my proposition comes in. I'm fairly positive about what you preach, and I want to retain you all 30 qualifiers as well as the Classic, should we go there, and I want to reform the Assocation slightly so that actual innovation can take place outside of the amateur leagues. Ko-orenite baseball is at a standstill, and the Assocation is happy to only have teams in two out of twelve provinces. There is some following outside of these two, obviously, but a travelling team that only plays in every city once in six home games... it's just not going to cut it. The Wanderers underperform anyway, given that every game feels like an away game to them that way."
"So I'm going to lose this no matter what. I won't stay with the NT, but you're saying they might block my plans with the Admirals as well?"
"Right now, you know they do have the power, every team is eventually employed by the Assocation."
"Right, so what can you do about this?"
"Ok. I make sure you can stay with the NT. If I succeed, and we make the Classic, and we're both retained all the way through, while you support the team in a meaningful way, then you've got to do something for me. You have to move the Admirals to Intermare province."
"Do what?"
"That's right, move them to northern Ko-oren. Your philosophy is that baseball will grow from a better way to approach games. My philosophy is that baseball will grow if we just make it more accessible to more people, and Intermare doesn't have cricket or baseball right now. The Wanderers will just play in Greencaster and Willowbourne, in the southwest. The Admirals will take Intermare, in the north. The rest of the league, all ten teams, will continue to fight for scraps in the southeast. But you only have to move them there in case we make the Classic and we both keep our jobs here. Should we get fired before the end of the Classic, the team can stay in Aviansola, but I want you to hire me as an assistant. I need a job too, after all."
"That's a dirty thing. What if I just quit now on my own accord?"
"You can try... but how will that look to the Assocation? They're already scrutinising your plan, anyway. You have nothing to win right now, things can only remain constant for you at best."
"That's beyond dirty. Give me a day to get back to you. I want my philosophy to win in the end, but is it worth it to me to move to Intermare? We're going to take a massive hit in attendance, sponsors, and the like. And won't the Assocation block the move?"
"The Assocation only employs. They don't own the teams."
"But aren't they going to make less money with a move? They will never accept this. They only employ, but the salaries have to go come from somewhere!"
"The Admirals already rank dead last in the league in income generated. The Admirals already operate on a loss. The Assocation doesn't care, as long as an Intermare team won't lose them more money. And whatever they check, an Intermare will remain more economically viable. The dossier is already there, don't worry. I checked. There's some privilege you get as a head coach, after all."
"Give me a day. Come on man..."