Everything's Going Better Than Expected: WCoH35 Analyses and PredictionsI must admit that I was incredibly nervous going into the Elejamie-Anthor game. On the one hand, we were higher up in the rankings (#1 vs #4), we've had the better group stage run (9-0-1 vs 7-2-1) and there's only been one game (back at the 33rd World Cup of Hockey, which they hosted) out of six where the Ducks managed to beat the Icy Elephants. But on the other hand I was worried that we'd start choking at this point or Anthor would probably take advantage of any problems they had. Indeed, they did lead that first period, with the only goal coming from Harold Jewel (assisted by Adam Bohatec and Michael Brice) with 12:11 left on the clock. However, we managed to fight back and make it 2-2 at the end of the second; our goals being scored by Kasputin (assisted by Meloten and Saunders) and Han (assisted by Swinburne and Sierra), their goal being scored by Graham Poindexter (unassisted). However, we absolutely tore up the third period by scoring four unanswered goals: Kasputin scoring a second (assisted by Meloten and Lupe), Cerin Meloten scoring one of his own (assisted by the Two Gs, Greg Warren and George Lincoln), Harrison (assisted by Morton and Warren) and Saunders with an empty netter (assisted solely by Meloten). Final score? 6-2. And now in hindsight me getting worried was a bit unfounded.
Either way, here we are at the quarter-finals of the World Cup of Hockey over in the Free Republics. The hosts didn't make it to this stage, since they got eliminated after they finished in fourth place (on the upside, they were going home even if they had made it through). And guess who we'll be facing. On second thoughts, no need since I'll reveal it. But who else will be joining us? The Royal Kingdom of Quebec lost to the reigning champs Vilita and Turori in overtime, which feels like the end of an era for Quebecois ice hockey. The Calcuttas beat the WCoH33 champs Cosumar 3-2. And Savojarna edged out Novaya Zemlya, who up until then hadn't lost any of their games, 2-1. And a few other teams also made it through.
And so, as always, I look into my crystal ball to predict which ones will be making it through and which ones will be going home. Then, using any other data like head-to-heads or finals experience, trying to figure out where the remaining four teams would go. Yes, it's my Analyses and Predictions article, where most of them end up wrong. Oracle at Delphi I am not. Still, it's fun to do, gives me a reason to look back at the archives and, as I've said, there are moments where I end up being right. Or, in the case of the 29th World Cup of Hockey semis, finals and 3PPO, right for the wrong reasons. Enough blabbing, let's get started on this:
Quarter-finals
Abanhfleft vs Nova AnglicanaIn the last competition, Abanhfleft were in our group and finished top of it, thanks to beating us 4-3 in overtime on the second day. There they'd storm on to a 6-2 win over New Danican before they fell to the eventual winners Vilita and Turori 4-2. In this competition, they managed to get the double over us with a 2-0 shootout win after a 3-3 draw. And, after a good first half from them, it seemed like they were going to get the double over us, right? Nope, 8-3 win for the Icy Elephants. As a result, they slipped down to second and, although they won their remaining games, they weren't able to overtake us. On the upside, at least they made it through and beat Cosneolta 1-0 (albeit in overtime), so at least they could bounce back.
Nova Anglicana missed the last competition, which was a slight pity because they didn't do too badly at the 33rd edition. There, they finished in second place in the Clark Group (behind then-reigning champs Valanora) and were up against Gregoryisgodistan (remember them?). NA won the first game 2-1 and won their second game 2-0, although the original game two had to be called off for some reason I can't exactly remember. Then they were up against the Natanians and Nosts and, although they lost the first game 3-2, they bounced back with consecutive 4-2 and 2-0 wins. However, it was the Royal Kingdom of Quebec that got the better of the Ice Lions; although they won the first game with a 3-2 shoot-out win after a goalless draw, the Ice Knights took game two 5-3 and game three 3-2 in OT. And it was followed up with a 3-1 series loss to the hosts in the 3PPO. Fast forward a couple of competitions and the Ice Lions proved they haven't missed a step by topping their group with a near perfect record (their sole loss being a 3-2 defeat to Cosumar) and a 4-3 win over Kita-Hinode. Impressive.
Winner: Nova Anglicana. Abanhfleft weren't a bad team in the competition and they do have the added bonus of being in the last competition but I feel like the Ice Lions would take the W here.
Siovanija and Teusland vs MercediniWow, this is actually quite a surprise. Not much of a surprise, mind, when they beat us at the Odin Invitational but still surprising enough. Yes, we've got a newcomer making it this far. Anyway, Siovanija and Teusland finished first in Group 5 with eight wins and two losses (both times against Banija; 6-5 and 5-4). Going into the Round of 16 and being up against Neu Engollon, it seemed like that it would be the end of the road for them. But no. They managed to grab a hard-fought 6-5 win and now they're here in the quarter-finals. Not bad. Should be interesting to see if they can keep this momentum going.
Mercedini's presence here is much less of a surprise but still a surprise nonetheless. In the last competition, they finished third place in their group, two points behind Banija. In Anthor, they made it to the Round of 16, where they were swept by Esparmuran. In Valanora, they were swept by Quebec in the Round of 16. In Hannasea, they finished third in the Guild of Skinners and Tailors group, level on points with Ficiscia but going out on goal difference. And, in their first competition, back at the 30th edition in Norrehavn, they finished dead last in their group, their only game not ending in a loss was their final day 5-5 draw against Bonapartium. Another team making their first quarter-finals appearance, in other words, thanks to them winning all but two games (1-0 in their first game against New Doltania, 4-3 in their second game against Lisander) and a 3-2 win against Qasden.
Winner: I'm going to have to give it to the new guys. Again, Mercedini aren't bad and this is definitely going to be a close call but I think the new guys have the upper hand here.
Elejamie vs ValanoraOh God, not this again. We last met old rivals Valanora in the quarter-finals of the last competition, where we beat them 4-2, which is why I'm doing just the one paragraph as opposed to two separante ones before the predicted winner. Fortunately, it was single elimination so we didn't have to play them again and watch them beat us in the following 2/3 games like they always do when we're playing them in a best-of series (except for our first meeting back at the 28th edition, where they swept us). And, indeed, this seems to be a single elimination tournament and we've had a better group stage run (9-0-1 for us, 8-2-0 for them) so it looks like we might have the upper hand here. But, on the other hand, they've won seven times in our last ten meetings, they seem to still be at the top (or near the top) of their game and they've generally a thorn in our side since our first final back in Norrehavn.
Winner: Valanora. Let's face it, I'm probably going to jinx things for us so I might as well hand them the win. The only positive thing I'll say is that this will be a close game.
Vilita and Turori vs SavojarnaVilita and Turori are, as previously mentioned, the reigning champions which came as a bit of a surprise. The Ice Cat Things finished top of their group with four wins and one loss, 5-4 to Oontaz Dert Li Ng. They were up against the then-reigning champions Cosumar in the Round of 16 and, to the surprise of quite a few people, managed to knock them out with a 3-2 win. They went on to knock out the aforementioned Abanhfleft 4-2 and were up against Novaya Zemlya, a team they beat 6-1, before taking out the hosts 5-4 in the shoot-out after their game ended 4-4 to lift the trophy. Here? They finished top of their group with only one loss (3-1 in their second game against Lorenthia) and nine wins, the most well-known one being their 12-3 demolition of Tomure, before going on to knock out the Royal Kingdom of Quebec 2-1 in overtime. Not bad.
Savojarna were the hosts of the last tournament and actually did better than expected, especially when you compare it to that pre-tourney competition they held where they lost all of their games. At the last WCoH, they won all of their group stage games before taking out Nyaryaga with a 5-4 win. They'd go on to beat Banija 3-2 before taking us out 2-1 (after overtime) in a semi-final game I thought was a bit fishy at the time because I'm a sore loser. And, as previously mentioned, they lost to Vilita and Turori in the final in a shoot-out that went into sudden death. Over here, their group stage run was a bit spotty (finishing 7-3-0 and level with Lisander, only going through due to the Savojars winning both their games) before ending Novaya Zemlya's winning streak with a 2-1 win in the Round of 16. I imagine they'll put up quite a fight here and try and avenge that final loss on home ice.
Winner: Vilita and Turori. Being the reigning champions will give them that extra edge, as would them winning the first encounter.
Semi-finals
Nova Anglicana vs Siovanaija and TeuslandOn the one hand, we've got a seasoned veteran who's been around since the 22nd World Cup of Hockey and even finished fourth in the 28th edition, being swept by Zenic before losing 2-1 to us. On the other hand, we've got a newcomer who did fairly well in their first international ice hockey and is doing well here. While that deserves some props, I still have my doubts.
Winner: Nova Anglicana. Siovanija and Teusland aren't a bad team by any stretch of the imagination but I think the Ice Lions would definitely come out on top here.
Valanora vs Vilita and TuroriThe last time these two teams met was at the group stage of the 30th World Cup of Hockey, a game that ended in a 2-2 draw. However, this wasn't the first time these two teams have met. The first time was back in the 23rd edition, when Vilita and Turori managed to grab a 3-1 win in their group stage game over in Group 1. However, Vilita and Turori have only really shined recently when they picked up the last World Cup of Hockey trophy (to add to their two AOHC trophies), whereas Valanora have been a star on the international circuit for a long time with six wins and two second places. The Calcuttas may be on a slight decline at the moments but they've still got plenty in the tank.
Winner: A tough game but I'm giving this one to Valanora, albeit barely.
Finals and 3PPO
Nova Anglicana vs ValanoraThere's been quite a few match-ups between these two teams. In Anthor, both teams played in the Clark Group and managed one game each, a 4-1 victory for the Calcuttas and a 2-0 win for the Ice Lions; both sides would go through to the next round, although Valanora would end up losing to eventual champions Cosumar in the quarter-finals, whereas Nova Anglicana would finish in fourth (as previously mentioned). And, before that, they were up against each other at the 26th World Cup of Hockey, where Elejamie made their debut, in the Round of 16. Valanora had swept their group and finished top of it (as you'd expect), whereas Nova Anglicana's sole loss to Quebec saw them finish in second place. And, indeed, the Calcuttas would go on to sweept this series, winning game one 5-3 and game two 2-0.
Winner: Valanora will win their seventh trophy here. Nova Anglicana aren't exactly a bad team and managed to win their last game against the Calcuttas, but the elves are going to be too much for them here.
Siovanija and Teusland vs Vilita and TuroriAgain, this is another first-time meeting simply because one of them's a newcomer. And the other's the reigning champion. Apologies for the incredibly short paragraph but I have no idea what to say that I haven't said already. Other than how I regret not picking Mercedini to win.
Winner: Vilita and Turori for the bronze. The only saving grace here is that S&T would make it much narrower, maybe even take the lead at some stage, but I fail to see how they'll pull off an upset.
And there we have it. A rough view of who I think would win and who I think won't win. Of course, knowing the actual competition, we'd probably get a strange final, like Elejamie vs Siovanija and Teusland or Valanora vs Mercedini. However, sometimes it's not all about that. Sometimes it's about watching some good ice hockey, with plenty of amazing goals, brilliant saves and fantastic fights. And, as I lie back and watch the quarter-finals, I'm sure there'll be plenty of those. I'm sure I'm going to enjoy some quality ice hockey. I'm sure you will too. Take care.