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SHS I Playoff Preview
Dynamo Sjoedrhavn vs. HK Metall JarnstadThis shall be a fairly one-sided affair between two tradition clubs. Dynamo was the first team to secure a spot after MD 33, and they never gave up the lead again. The team was carried largely by the performance of its defense around Erik Kristiansen and goalkeeper Petter Malmström, a formerly quite unknown player who will probably be nominated for the World Cup
(OOC: the playoffs are being played before WCoH 32 IC'ly) after the playoffs are done. Its offense is centered around Frans Djurberg and Jonas Gulbrandsson, who are spread out over a high-speed second line and a more physical first line. This posed problems for many teams that do not feature two strong defensive lines.
HK Metall only qualified on the last day, being tied on points with local rival Spartakus. However, they were one of only five teams to score more than hundred goals, but also one of four to concede more than 100 goals. Goalkeeper Marcus Jauslason was no more than a solid mid-field GK (18th in saves percentage of goalies who played 10 or more games), and the defense suffered a lot from injury, with both top defenders Ruhanen and Bengtsson missing over 15 games. They will rely a lot on the offensive power of Hjalmarsson to score.
Prediction: Dynamo Sjoedrhavn wins 4-1PT Hovikkära vs. SK Chemie FrisksPT Hovikkära had a very constant season and, like Dynamo, was on top of the game most of the time. PT is also the blueprint of strategic hockey in the nation, focusing largely on tactics and controlling the game's flow through suffocating the opponent. Their large forechecking abilities will put SK Chemie under high pressure. PT has relatively few stars and tends to fly under everyone's radar, and their top scorer was Tuomas Jaskinen who just made the milestone of 50 points with a three-point-night in the last game against Energie. Nevertheless, they are a favourite especially against weaker teams such as Chemie.
SK Chemie opened the season surprisingly strong and was seventh after a quarter of the season, but then fell into the expected crisis in the second half. In the end, Chemie struggled big time and only won the qualification thanks to forward Axel Helguson, who scored a goal 1:18 before the end to tie a match against Traktor St. Andrei. In the shootout, the team won the game and qualified for the playoffs. The largest assets for Frisks will be their defense, which is fairly solid, and their home stadium, a remote and small affair that is very uncomfortable for opposing teams.
Prediction: PT Hovikkära wins 4-2.RHK Savojagrad vs. Admiral StorevikRHK Savojagrad was always expected to reach the play-offs, but it was a slight surprise that they came third and to be honest, nobody really knows how they ended up there. It has certainly to do with their firepower, coming in at 104 goals and the only team that scored more but conceded less than 100 goals. Mikko Simonen plays a big role in this effort and is expected to be the starting center of the Savojar NT, but a lot of their success also came from the blue line, where Vyacheslav Glukov and Alexey Yarchenko were a constant danger. Their weakness potentially lays in goalie Karel Periskin and the depth of the defense. This was however greatly improved by the signing of Novozemlyan NT defender Andrei Alenichev.
Storevik, however, is probably not the team to take advantage of that. The team plays very creatively, but does usually not get a lot of shots off. Their defense remains a lot on positioning and the poke, which has gone wrong multiple times against big teams such as RHK. Savojagrad also has some fairly quick offenders, which will put Admiral deep into trouble. Offense output will potentially rely too much on the combination of Bajranov/Sakharev to trouble RHK's first defense much. Expects loads of scoring, but potentially one-sided. Prediction:
RHK Savojagrad wins 4-1.ESK Storevik vs. Thorsborgs TechnikThe season of ESK was a very successful one, and while no star emerged from this team, it is very promising for the future thanks to the young age of most of its members. It has a good mix of more experienced players, such as the 28 year old first defense pairing around Samuelsson and Fridtjofsson, and young talents such as the 19 year old rookie Thorbjörn Ansgarsson on the right wing. The anchor of the team is Viktor Davidsson in net, a 32 year old routinier who was expected to be called into the WCoH squad, but will probably miss out because he was injured for a good part of the season, as well as the desire of Fredrik Rundblad to call up younger goalies. This year may be a little too early for ESK, but the Storeviker will have a great shot at the title in the next few seasons.
Thorsborgs Technik was pretty much the embodiment of averageness in this season and ended up on top of the second half of the table. The 13th of the League won 19 and lost 20 games, with both 88 goals scored and conceded. The Techniker also played about an average, balanced game, and like with ESK, the team is the star. They will certainly be able to punch through the defense of ESK a few times, and to hold off their opponents most of the time, but like with many of the teams in this area, there is not really a reason why Thorsborg would be expected to excite or amaze us in this year. This is the face of a solid team that comfortably qualifies only to drop out of Playoff Octos.
Prediction: ESK Storevik wins 4-2.Aviator Virkaja vs. Sjoedrhavn SHKNow this is the first one where I do hesitate to attribute it to a favourite. Unlike other teams (Dynamo and RHK), Aviator didn't really have the luck of running into a team that suits them very well. Virkaja enjoys to let itself fall back and then roll over the opponent, scoring a lot of points on odd-man-situations and the powerplay. They rely a lot on explosive offense and a hard-working, grinding defense, taking work off their somewhat shaky young keeper Ville Kerjanen by building a pocket around him. On offense, their main weapons are the skill and speed of Niskänen and Grigorenko. The two have often showed that they don't like to run into a set defense.
And this is where SHK comes into play. The team did a good job in defense thanks to the signing of Axelsson and Jarborg. Additionally, with Erik Valdersen resigning as coach, they made a bold move in giving control to the only 38 year old Patrik Hansen. Hansen, whose only coaching experience was three years as assistant under Valdersen, employed a prudent defensive strategy that, while being fairly daring in possession of the puck, sees the defense fall back very quickly if the puck is lost. Its very consequently employed 1-3-1 defense does a good job at preventing the counters Aviator relies on heavily, and with signing Radoslav Klepakhov from Novaya Zemlya plus getting back the previously injured Denis Pedersen, they added a valuable asset to their offense.
Prediction: Sjoedrhavn SHK wins 3-4.Dynamo St. Andrei vs. SK Torpedo PawlogradThis is not the most explosive derby of Russica (or the playoffs, see next one), but it comes close to it. Police and Military are in constant rivalry to each other on any possible stage, of course including hockey. Dynamo set off the season quite successfully, dropped back a bit in the second half and then managed to stabilise itself in the last rounds and win home ice for the Octos. Their strengths very clearly lay in offense and always did. Their defense relies almost entirely on two men, Dmitry Vasilyev and goalkeeper Vitali Nemanyov. Slava Vestrak, the iconic Dynamo coach going into his ninth season with the team, is known for inciting a fire in his teams that carry them through games and will be difficult to hold off for Torpedo. In offense, their arsenal is laid out through two top-class lines with Nuryzhin, Denisov, Elyagin, and crowned by the League topscorer Pavel Rasnikov.
SK Torpedo is a way more defensive side, who scored less than half the goals of Dynamo, but also conceded less than half of St. Andrei's number. This is going to be a one-sided series on the ice, but the result may look very different. A lot of it will depend on Alexei Varyshnin, the fourth-best goalkeeper of the SHS between the Torpedo pipes. The defense of Torpedo is lacking a true star but can bring on a collective effort with its impressive depth. The first lines of Dynamo will likely be able to push through Torpedo's top defenders, but the back lines will struggle hard against the back lines of Torpedo, given that a couple like Ruukanen/Treblin is only their third line when both of them were starters at Markka and Partizan before. In offense, the burden lies on Yurkin and Wallsson, who are both past their prime as scorers and mostly useful as grinders.
Prediction: Dynamo St. Andrei wins 4-3CASK Thorsborg vs. ASK LandsmarkIf you are a Savojar hockey fan and didn't cheer when you saw this pairing, I don't believe you; except you are also a policeman. Seeing the two Army teams, the most heated rivalry in Savojarna, go against each other in the playoffs is a unique spectacle and will lead to a lot of energy on the ice (and occasionally in the stands, which is why the security forces hate it as much as we love it) and a fight to the metaphorical death. CASK seemed to be deep in trouble by the first quarter of the season, when the Thorsborger were dead last with only four points in 12 games. At this time, goalie Niklas Hoyman was the only player remotely living up to his name. But then, Calle Johanson resigned as coach and Ragnar Fridtjofsson replaced him. He employed a physical style that instantly kicked off and not only brought CASK to the playoffs, but even on home ice. The big guys in offense, centered around Fransson and Debreshev, rely on the assistance of sniper and captain Mikael Söderberg and the "Blue Line Cannon", Antti Toranen. In defense, Toranen and Riksborg can be counted on to clear the space around Hoyberg.
ASK Landsmark was far more constant and spent most of its time on or around the 10th rank they occupy now. ASK's goalie Nils Frederiksen was a reliable man for most of the season and conceded the second-fewest goals of the league behind Dynamo Sjoedrhavn's Malmström. But then again, Frederiksen faced few shots due to the strong ASK defense. What is impressive about ASK Landsmark is the number of shots they could block, which will make things not easy for the CASK side, given how many points they made thanks to point shots. It is hard to get screens, reflections or rebounds if someone blocks the way to the goal, and time will tell how good CASK can deal with that. But given how physically strong the team is, they can probably find a way. Things will get very heated here, especially after the controversial last derby, when CASK won 0-1 in Landsmark thanks to a goal the ASK team claimed to be goaltender interference.
Prediction: CASK Thorsborg wins 4-3International Pawlograd vs. Traktor St. AndreiNone of those really stands out as a likely contender for anything past Octos, but as they face each other, one of them will make it. The biggest argument for International is obviously its goalie Andrey Strakhov. He is experienced enough not to get stressed out by the circumstances of playoffs, and the fact he tops the saves percentage statistics clearly shows he is very skilled. The biggest argument against International is basically that he is the only thing that the team can offer. The offense's best known name is Mikhail Ivanov, whose main credentials are trashing a Pawlograd harbour bar in January. In terms of hockey, there is some talent in Akeson and Lidman (and Ivanov again) but none of those look like future franchise players. Nor do the top defenders, Evgeni Markov (who is already 35) and Sergey Perezhogin. The question here will be whether Strakhov can continue his run and pull International up to the Quarters.
For Traktor, the situation is quite similar. The first weeks were quite great for the, and the team was topping the league for some time. But then, like for their city rivals, things got gradually worse until they ended up just below the cut for home ice. Nobody from the team seems like they would stand out, but they generally have the potentially stronger back lines. Also, one has to see that the seeming lack of glory in Traktor's offense particularly comes from style rather than skill. Players like Ilya Zaryanov and Marko Rashin, both starters at Traktor, are known as workhorses rather than flashy posterboys. What is exceptional compared to International is the fourth line. Hans Jensen, Nemanya Perunov and Leonid Karenin can be expected to walk over the likes of Ulyachev, Wronsky and Elegin that will expect them at the other side, especially if Strakhov can't hold up after a long season.
Prediction: Traktor St. Andrei wins 2-4. Predictions of (a part of) our team for the final:Victor Torstensson: Dynamo Sjoedrhavn 4-2 RHK Savojagrad
Linus Kristensen: PT Hovikkära 3-4 CASK Thorsborg
Antti Naumanen: Dynamo Sjoedrhavn 4-3 PT Hovikkära
Jessica Lindberg: Dynamo Sjoedrhavn 1-4 ESK Storevik
Boris Velyagin: RHK Savojagrad 4-2 Dynamo St. Andrei