World Baseball Classic Discussion Thread

[Darmen]

<snip>

You should do a love stream on skype or something. That would be exciting.

<snip>

Please do not do a love stream. We would all be scared for life. A live stream is certainly alright though.

Also, sigged.

[Newmanistan]

<snip>

You should do a love stream on skype or something. That would be exciting.

<snip>

Please do not do a love stream. We would all be scared for life. A live stream is certainly alright though.

Also, sigged.

I don't know, that would certainly add to the originality of it all.

[Frenline Delpha]

Please do not do a love stream. We would all be scared for life. A live stream is certainly alright though.

Also, sigged.

I don't know, that would certainly add to the originality of it all.

Unfortunately, I have no ability to stream online. I will do my best to keep you all updated. I'll even create a Discord server just for the event.

[Schiltzberg]

<snip>

You should do a love stream on skype or something. That would be exciting.

<snip>

Please do not do a love stream. We would all be scared for life. A live stream is certainly alright though.

Also, sigged.

Oh wow... That is a weird typo. I appreciate the sigging!

[Empire of Cats]

Quick question (though probably not my final ): is this where we RP for the NS World Baseball thread or is there another thread for that?

[Frenline Delpha]

Quick question (though probably not my final ): is this where we RP for the NS World Baseball thread or is there another thread for that?

Once the host vote is finished, a host will put up the IC thread, where the RPs and Rosters and Results can go.

[Empire of Cats]

Quick question (though probably not my final ): is this where we RP for the NS World Baseball thread or is there another thread for that?

Once the host vote is finished, a host will put up the IC thread, where the RPs and Rosters and Results can go.

OK, thanks!

[Schiltzberg]

Host bidding ends Monday, so tomorrow or today, depending on which time zone you are in. Expect host bid voting to start as soon as that closes.

[Schiltzberg]

Host bidding is now closed. There is just the one bid, so here are your voting options:

1. Vote FOR Frenline Delpha's host bid
2. Vote to reopen sign-ups
3. Officially abstain

Submit all responses to Sandberg. Host bid voting will end two days from now at 5:00 pm ET, Wednesday, March 15.

[Schiltzberg]

Seeing as there are fifteen members of the WBC council, and therefore, only eight votes are required to get the majority, I will close host bid voting early, since I see no reason to continue to postpone WBC 39, if we already have a clear decision. Right now, the results are:

1. FOR Frenline Delpha's host bid: 8
2. Reopen host bidding: 0
3. Abstain: 0

If you would still like to vote just for the sake of having your voice heard, you can still send your votes to Sandberg and I will give an update on the voting situation. I want to get the show on the road now though, so I will now hand WBC 39 off to its hosts, Frenline Delpha! Congratulations, and good luck to everyone!

[Free Republics]

An update regarding Baseinator:

I have the core of the scorinator done as of right now. The only planned features that are missing at the moment are style modifier/park factor implementation, adding teams from within the scorinator (instead of text files), adjusting the constants (without modifying the source code) and the code that allows for scorination of x round robins in a single go (which is intended for quick scorination of domestic leagues). Of these features, the only essential one for NSCB purposes is the style mod/park factor implementation, which should be pretty straightforward.

Here's what 10000 (5000 home, 5000 away) look like between 8 prominent WBC nations (with current ranks):

Pld    W   L    GF   GA   GD   Pts 
1 Super-Llamaland      10000 7793 2207 57588 31813 +25775 23379
2 Frenline Delpha      10000 5884 4116 48532 41131 +7401 17652
3 Schiltzberg          10000 5637 4363 46876 42065 +4811 16911
4 Drawkland            10000 5518 4482 46617 42529 +4088 16554
5 West Saintland       10000 4482 5518 42529 46617 −4088 13446
6 Maklohi Vai          10000 4363 5637 42065 46876 −4811 13089
7 Free Republics       10000 4116 5884 41131 48532 −7401 12348
8 The Great Pond       10000 2207 7793 31813 57588 −25775  6621

The matchups were: Super-Llamaland vs The Great Pond, Frenline Delpha vs Free Republics, Schiltzberg vs Maklohi Vai and Drawkland vs West Saintland. The scorinator generated the results for all 40,000 games within seconds, including linescores. Those results for The Great Pond, by the way, are about what any team with a 0 skill will do against any opponent with a non-zero skill. It'll be available to download before the end of WBC 39.

EDIT: Interestingly, there were two 23-inning games among those 40,000 games:

Team Name       1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Total
West Saintland  0  2  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   5
Drawkland     0  0  0  0  1  1  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  2   7

Team Name     1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Total
Schiltzberg  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0   1
Maklohi Vai  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  2   3

And it appears that there is a formatting bug with the linescores that I'll need to fix...

[Drawkland]

I vote that the 40,000 games scorinated be considered canon.

[Frenline Delpha]

I vote that the 40,000 games scorinated be considered canon.

I mean, we do have enough people to create fifty baseball teams, so...

[Schiltzberg]

An update regarding Baseinator:

I have the core of the scorinator done as of right now. The only planned features that are missing at the moment are style modifier/park factor implementation, adding teams from within the scorinator (instead of text files), adjusting the constants (without modifying the source code) and the code that allows for scorination of x round robins in a single go (which is intended for quick scorination of domestic leagues). Of these features, the only essential one for NSCB purposes is the style mod/park factor implementation, which should be pretty straightforward.

Here's what 10000 (5000 home, 5000 away) look like between 8 prominent WBC nations (with current ranks):

Pld    W   L    GF   GA   GD   Pts 
1 Super-Llamaland      10000 7793 2207 57588 31813 +25775 23379
2 Frenline Delpha      10000 5884 4116 48532 41131 +7401 17652
3 Schiltzberg          10000 5637 4363 46876 42065 +4811 16911
4 Drawkland            10000 5518 4482 46617 42529 +4088 16554
5 West Saintland       10000 4482 5518 42529 46617 −4088 13446
6 Maklohi Vai          10000 4363 5637 42065 46876 −4811 13089
7 Free Republics       10000 4116 5884 41131 48532 −7401 12348
8 The Great Pond       10000 2207 7793 31813 57588 −25775  6621

The matchups were: Super-Llamaland vs The Great Pond, Frenline Delpha vs Free Republics, Schiltzberg vs Maklohi Vai and Drawkland vs West Saintland. The scorinator generated the results for all 40,000 games within seconds, including linescores. Those results for The Great Pond, by the way, are about what any team with a 0 skill will do against any opponent with a non-zero skill. It'll be available to download before the end of WBC 39.

EDIT: Interestingly, there were two 23-inning games among those 40,000 games:

Team Name       1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Total
West Saintland  0  2  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   5
Drawkland     0  0  0  0  1  1  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  2  0  0  0  0  0  0  2   7

Team Name     1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Total
Schiltzberg  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  0   1
Maklohi Vai  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  2   3

And it appears that there is a formatting bug with the linescores that I'll need to fix...

Holy shit, Super-Llamaland beat The Great Pond not once but 7793 times? That's insane. Those games remind me of a game of ping pong I played with a friend best of twenty-one that ended up going back and forth in a deuce for a really long time until I won 23-21.

Edit: I would be interested to see what the longest winning streak was during that run and what the most lopsided games were. It seems like in 40,000 games, there would be some pretty interesting results.

[Super-Llamaland]

Super-Llamaland beat The Great Pond not once but 7793 times?

2-15
Super-Llamaland 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2
The Great Pond 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 X 4

The Great Pond wins series 2-0

*sigh*

[Gregoryisgodistan]

FFR, will you be adding the option for different run probabilities in extra innings than regulation so people can use the WBC extra innings rule? You'd mentioned possibly doing that, but it would have to be an option that can be turned on or off, like shootouts in the hockey scorinator.

[Newmanistan]

Free Republics: Very interesting there and I like what I see.

What I would also like to see (if possible) is a comparison of a one single top ranked nation, say Schiltzberg, against nations of different ranking ranges to make sure that the data is proportional. Also I would like to see the reverse, with say, The Great Pond, against nations of higher ranking ranges.

[Free Republics]

FFR, will you be adding the option for different run probabilities in extra innings than regulation so people can use the WBC extra innings rule? You'd mentioned possibly doing that, but it would have to be an option that can be turned on or off, like shootouts in the hockey scorinator.

That feature has been added in the form of an extra constant for run probability in extra innings which can be disabled by setting it to a negative value.

Edit: I would be interested to see what the longest winning streak was during that run and what the most lopsided games were. It seems like in 40,000 games, there would be some pretty interesting results.

I don't have that set of 40,000 games anymore because they were overwritten by tests of the style modifier/park factor code.

Free Republics: Very interesting there and I like what I see.

What I would also like to see (if possible) is a comparison of a one single top ranked nation, say Schiltzberg, against nations of different ranking ranges to make sure that the data is proportional. Also I would like to see the reverse, with say, The Great Pond, against nations of higher ranking ranges.

The Great Pond (or any other team with a skill of 0) would have the exact same probability of winning against any opponent (except, of course, another opponent with a 0 skill), so showing matches with The Great Pond vs various different ranked teams would be pointless. This is because the scorinator is ratio-based (a 0 rank is equal, under the default constants, to a ratio of approximately 1096.6).

The lnmax constant is set at 8 and the ln of 1096.6*e is approximately 8. Without such an upper bound on the ratio, either the program would crash with a divide by zero error when trying to scorinate games where a team has a skill of 0 or it would be possible to break the formula with extreme values.

The formula to modify each team's probability of scoring a run is:

1) If skill is equal, no change
2) If one team has zero skill and the other has non-zero, add maxRunVariance constant to the team with a non-zero skill
3) If both teams have non-zero skill, take the ln of (higher skill / lower skill)*e, divide it by lnmax and multiply the result by maxRunVariance. Add this amount to the better team, subtract it from the weaker.

This value is then modified using the Poisson formula to find x = 0 to set the scorination ranges.

I'll do a series of scorinations with Schiltzberg vs various other nations (including nations at the very bottom of the rankings) when I release the scorinator (probably sometime tonight).

---

I decided to add in a feature to allow the constants to be changed via a file and, in the interest of saving time atm, have decided to remove 3 planned features from the initial release (changing teams while the scorinator is running, changing constants while the scorinator is running and scorinating x round robins in a single go). The first 2 features are of limited usefulness (especially when you can do the same thing faster with text files) while the 3rd is primarily a domestic league feature (and will be added in the next major version).

[Free Republics]

Baseinator Version 1.0 is now available. As it is written in Java, you should be able to run it on any computer that has Java installed. As I have yet to figure out how to make a .jar file, there will be 4 .class files included. Think of Baseinator.class as the .exe and the other 3 .class files as .dll files (which probably won't do anything if you run them.

Baseinator 1.0
Source Code

Test scorinations showing Schiltzberg vs various other teams in the current WBC rankings will have to wait for a few days (unless somebody else wants to give that a try) because I don't have the time tonight (that time went to typing up a readme file).

EDIT: It appears that you may need to run it from the command line ("Command Prompt" in Windows, "Terminal" in Linux) with the command "java Baseinator". I found a guide to the Windows Command Prompt on Google that may be helpful if you want to run it. If you don't have Java installed on your computer, you can download the current version for free from Oracle. I guess that means "make a JAR file" is going to be one of my priorities for the next version then.

[Frenline Delpha]

First test of Baseinator:

SCZ vs FND                Pld    W   L    RF   RA   RD   Pts 
1 Schiltzberg          20000 10794 9206 94745 87591 +7154 32382
2 Frenline Delpha      20000 9206 10794 87591 94745 −7154 27618

Second Test of Baseinator:

SCZ vs ANG                 Pld    W   L    RF   RA   RD   Pts 
1 Schiltzberg          20000 11299 8701 96430 85904 +10526 33897
2 Anglatia             20000 8701 11299 85904 96430 −10526 26103

And now, my own little test:

Team;Trigram;Skill;Style;Park

Team A;TMA;2.6;4;90
Team B;TMB;4.5;-2;120
Team C;TMC;1;0;190
Team D;TMD;5.24;-5;68

Triple round robin, let's see how things play out.

Practice Group          Pld    W   L    RF   RA   RD   Pts 
1 Team A                  9    7   2    54   50   +4    21
2 Team B                  9    4   5    41   41    0    12
3 Team D                  9    4   5    26   29   −3    12
4 Team C                  9    3   6    46   47   −1     9

And linescores:

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team D     0  1  0  1  3  0  2  0  2   9
Team C     0  0  1  1  2  1  0  0  1   6

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team B     0  1  1  0  1  0  0  0  1   4
Team A     0  1  0  2  0  0  0  0  2   5

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team D     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0   1
Team A     0  0  0  2  0  0  0  1  X   3

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team C     2  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0   3
Team B     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   0

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team A     2  1  0  3  0  0  0  0  0   6
Team C     1  0  1  0  0  0  0  0  1   3

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team B     0  1  1  0  0  0  0  0  1   3
Team D     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   0

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team A     1  1  1  1  0  1  0  0  1   6
Team C     0  0  0  1  0  0  1  4  1   7

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team B     1  0  0  0  0  0  2  1  0   4
Team D     0  1  0  1  0  0  4  1  X   7

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team A     4  0  1  0  3  2  0  0  2   12
Team B     3  0  0  2  2  0  0  2  2   11

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team C     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   0
Team D     0  0  0  0  0  1  0  0  X   1

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team B     2  0  0  0  0  0  0  2  1   5
Team C     0  0  0  0  0  0  1  0  2   3

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team A     0  0  4  0  0  0  1  0  0   5
Team D     1  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  2   4

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team C     1  1  4  1  0  0  0  1  0   8
Team A     0  0  0  2  0  0  1  0  1   4

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team D     0  2  0  0  0  1  0  0  0   3
Team B     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   0

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team D     0  0  2  2  0  0  0  0  0   4
Team C     1  3  1  1  0  1  0  1  X   8

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team B     1  0  0  0  1  2  1  2  2   9
Team A     0  0  1  1  1  1  2  0  0   6

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team D     1  0  0  1  0  0  0  0  1   3
Team A     0  0  0  2  1  0  0  0  1   4

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team C     2  0  0  0  1  4  0  1  0   8
Team B     0  0  1  2  1  2  2  0  1   9

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team B     0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   0
Team D     1  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  X   1

Team Name  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 Total
Team A     1  0  1  0  1  1  1  2  2   9
Team C     1  0  0  0  0  2  0  2  2   7

[Schiltzberg]

Out of curiosity, FD, when can we expect an everything thread to go up?

[Frenline Delpha]

Out of curiosity, FD, when can we expect an everything thread to go up?

After I complete the group draw. If I have Internet at the hotel, it'll be up tomorrow. If not, it'll be up Sunday night.

[Frenline Delpha]

Everything Thread is now up.

[Newmanistan]

Out of curiosity, FD, when can we expect an everything thread to go up?

After I complete the group draw. If I have Internet at the hotel, it'll be up tomorrow. If not, it'll be up Sunday night.

What kinda hotel doesn't have internet these days?
#saneNSdiscussionthread

[Frenline Delpha]

After I complete the group draw. If I have Internet at the hotel, it'll be up tomorrow. If not, it'll be up Sunday night.

What kinda hotel doesn't have internet these days?
#saneNSdiscussionthread

True, but you never know. It was a pain getting this hotel's Internet to work, but I managed it, so here we are.