The History of Gaels 80s Market Crash (OOC, TWI Only)

[Ainslie]

So I wrote a brief timeline in an attempt to get my head around a few things, and here's some events we still need to work out the timing of (At least from what I've seen), and a much better view of how the Ahnslens will likely fit into this mess.

Stuff we (potentially) still need to work out

We still don't have exact years for a couple things

• 198? - Bank of Gael then introduces Magarati products and labour in significant quantities, leading to unemployment and the collapse of some manufacturing industries across Gael.
• 1982 (according to Aruia) - A significant drop in the stock in the Bank of Gael cause investors to flee from participating in Gaelitic financial markets, proving the AGS as incompetent and marking its demise.

How Ainslie will likely fit in

• 1975-1980s - Gael Finance utilises Bank Lidara as an avenue through which it hands out large loans to companies and governments affected by civil wars. Many of these are risky to the point that they breach the guidelines established by the AGS. In response, the AGS encourages deregulation (most prominent in Ainslie under the rule of Joel Gisbourne in the early 1980s) which allows Gael Finance to acquire many large banks across Gael, including Lennester Bank in Ainslie - the then second largest bank in the country.
• 1984 - PM Joel Gisbourne’s radical neoliberalism results in Ainslie’s expulsion from the AGS and marks the last straw for the Judicial Council of Ainslie, who promptly dismiss the leader from his post and demand for new elections to be held
• 1988 - PM Archer Condor within months of being installed as Ainslie’s new leader reverses or slows the privatisation of many key government corporations. It also purchases stocks at extremely low prices in companies integral to the Ahnslen economy. This enables the Ahnslen Government to have increased control over its economy, a move seen as quite popular by the people given private industry’s apparent inability to maintain stable financial markets.
• 1989 - In response to the Bank of Gael’s mass introduction of Magarati labour, then-Ahnslen PM Condor initiates a strict immigration policy designed to make immigration exceptionally difficult.
• 1990 - With Ahnslen markets beginning to stabilise, Condor requests the Judicial-General to begin an extensive enquiry into the financial crisis and advises the Ministry of Finance, Enterprise and Economics to undertake “any inquiry necessary” to better understand how the nation could be more resilient to future events.

[Aruia]

there is a more direct time line written in the main post, the AGC was disbanded back 1982-84 and the deregulation was around 1975-1980.

in what currency would you count the total loss in Gael? if we count numbers?

[Dormill and Stiura]

there is a more direct time line written in the main post, the AGC was disbanded back 1982-84 and the deregulation was around 1975-1980.

The AGS officially dissolved in 1990, while it informally dissolved from 1982-84, when all of the non-Doraltic members of the Association agreed to withdraw on the condition that once the United Republics was reformed, an identical economic agreement to what the AGS provided would be established.

Additionally, the AGS was behind Ahnslen deregulation, encouraging it to deregulate under auspices of investment and prosperity while Gael Finance and its subsidiaries flooded Gael with cheap Magarati labor (most especially in construction) that strained the economies of all AGS member states, since it had a rather stringent migration policy regarding unskilled workers. In a bout of corporate warfare (or espionage, can't tell which is more relevant), Gael Finance attempts to buy multiple of Gael's Bulge Bracket banks, which if it were successful would give it domineering control over the economy of the entire continent. Unfortunately, during the process of buying (either or, or both) the Bank of Kapolder or Lennster Bank (or really any other Ahnslen bank) in 1979, investors get spooked by the start of the civil wars in Balnik and Noronica, causing most of them to sell their stocks across Gaeltic businesses.

This act kills Gael Finance's chance of buying its rival bank, causing more of its own investors to start pulling their stocks. The subsequent stock market collapse is the ultimate catalyst for the Gael Crash, with every national economy stalled and the AGS proven too weak to act.

In terms of the overall economic damage, we're talking in the billions of dollars at minimum thanks to how long the economic recovery of Gael took. That's not even taking into account the hundreds of millions to billions lost in the ongoing and subsequent conflicts that surrounded the Gael Crash, the Noronnican Civil War, the Balniki Civil War, the Orsandian Civil War, the Verdonian Civil War, and general civil unrest. I'd venture the overall damage of the crash over the course of the 80s to 2000 would be in the high single-digit billions of dollars or the low tens of billions of dollars.

[Aruia]

there is a more direct time line written in the main post, the AGC was disbanded back 1982-84 and the deregulation was around 1975-1980.

The AGS officially dissolved in 1990, while it informally dissolved from 1982-84, when all of the non-Doraltic members of the Association agreed to withdraw on the condition that once the United Republics was reformed, an identical economic agreement to what the AGS provided would be established.

Additionally, the AGS was behind Ahnslen deregulation, encouraging it to deregulate under auspices of investment and prosperity while Gael Finance and its subsidiaries flooded Gael with cheap Magarati labor (most especially in construction) that strained the economies of all AGS member states, since it had a rather stringent migration policy regarding unskilled workers. In a bout of corporate warfare (or espionage, can't tell which is more relevant), Gael Finance attempts to buy multiple of Gael's Bulge Bracket banks, which if it were successful would give it domineering control over the economy of the entire continent. Unfortunately, during the process of buying (either or, or both) the Bank of Kapolder or Lennster Bank (or really any other Ahnslen bank) in 1979, investors get spooked by the start of the civil wars in Balnik and Noronica, causing most of them to sell their stocks across Gaeltic businesses.

The point was that Gael Finance buying was very very discrete to the point that it has gone unnoticed by governments financial bodies, so the transaction of large cuts of the share holds were successful. But, all the civil unrrest reached its pick at the start of the 80s, along with the violent deregulation policies that allowed Gael Finance to flood the market with cheap magarati factories and goods caused investors to pull out. The stock drop should be a surprise factor for all the governments in Gael that they don't understand what went wrong. Gael Finance hostile take over was very under the radar for everyone that in the end even with the market crashing they had enouogh reserve not to go bank robbed or have the state bank robbed since it was a state-owned conglomerate - which made it all the more terrible

So if we say time line wise
1975 - Bank Lidara which is one of the Big Bulge Banks that is mainly an investment and loans bank is aquired
from 1978 to 1980 it start producing massive risky loans to businesses and state owned companies which would be a breach of a the AGS. - First sign of incomptence by the body for not managing to enforce this, mainly the fear that preventing it will severe the economical damage.
then comes the deregulation. So it would make sense for Ainslie to pull out all on its own after their prime minister gets sacked.
Balnik becomes a slave to Magari factories and his nation forces cheap labor just so people can bring food home.

the damage would be counted in Aruian currency?

in estimate 70 to 200 billion |Currency| worth of economic damage?

the outcome pretty much stay the same. Gael Finance becomes either owned by the Gael Four and forces Aruia to go through a complete change in its International and commerce regulation which force it to go through liberalization acts, this is how Valerio Del'falco got to become president.

there wasn't a full recovery officially until the 2000s but nations came back to stable status already in the 90s with GDP showing a positive spike.

[Aruia]

Suggested rephrased general timeline -

General timeline of the Market crash:
70s - Economy and trade all through 1970s to the start of 1980 revolve around treaties that were regulated by the transgoverment body: Association of Gaeltic States with the exclusion of some Gael states such as Aruia.
1973 - Gael Finance and Bank of Gael secretly been nationalized and seized by the Aruian ministry of commerce and finance, under the labor party.
- civil wars occur through Orsandia, Balnik leading to heavy focus and involving the ACGS with Ostehaar making heavy investment and direct involvement in the activity, in order to keep the regional and local market stable.
1974 - Bank Lidara in Aruia has been acquired by Gael Finance, expert in loans and investments worth with existing branches in D&S, Ainslie, and Roendovar.
1975 to 1980s - Gael Finance uses Bank Lidara as an extension arm to hand out large loans to companies affected by the civil wars economical outcome.
- several governments make risky loan moves that are a breach of the AGS in order to recover from a post-war period or prevent a complete crash of the economy.
- AGS proves unable to enforce the breach of treaties and instead in response encourages deregulation moves, allowing Gael Finance to form hostile take over on several banks across Gael that go under the radar of many governments.
- a massive drop in Bank of Gaels stocks along with the civil unrests in Gael causes investors to pull out Gaeltic projects and investments. AGS proves incompetent in providing solutions and begins to dissolve itself.
- Bank of Gael floods the Gael market with Magarati products and labor, additional flood of foreign cheap good lead to a loss in many local manufactures and a mass recession period.
1982 to 1984 - AGS state it will no longer debate Gael matters during its liquifying period, forcing nations like Ostehaar to pick up the burden of post civil war nations political stability which in response weaken its market
- Aruia shows strange positive spike of recovery in its GDP thanks to the involvement of the ministries in Gael Finance that keep the Aruian market partially stable in comparison to the rest of Gael.
1984 - 1985 post Joel Gisbourne government begins investigating into all failing and bank robbed companies in Ainslie, halting all of Gisbournes approved extreme deregulation that are traced back to Gael Finance and to Aruias government which becomes a massive scandal.
1990 - a period where Gael Finance is either dissolved or handed to an international body, Aruia is forced by other nations to go through several diplomatic and economic changes or suffer military and international sanctions.
1990 to 2000s - period of recovery market with positive signs stability across Gael, the effects of the market crash are still felt but majority of the nations see a positive change in their local market.

[Ostehaar]

I just want to add that Ostehaar's 80's recession was the main driving force behind Ostehaar's increased intervention in Lovsk. It doesn't change anything - I'm just pointing it out because it's cool. P:

[Aruia]

with all current notes i started turning it into a Factbook entry, which by now most who discussed it know due to the tags.

https://www.nationstates.net/nation=aru ... id=1373534

the post will be used to debate what to phrase or add into the Factbook from this point, hope it enriched everyone's nation-building in the process <3

[Ainslie]

Made an in depth factbook about Ainslie and the Gael Crash - feel free to suggest stuff or bring up any ideas you have for Ainslie or for collaborative links concerning Ainslie during this period.

The dispatch: https://www.nationstates.net/page=dispatch/id=1464040

[Aruia]

What's missing for me to tie everything up is the aftermath, holding Aruia and Gael Finance accountable.

[Torom]

This is le tag. Will be interested once canal canon is actually established.