The History of Gaels 80s Market Crash (OOC, TWI Only)

[Aruia]

This is a discussion thread for the Gael Market Crash, known as the Aruian Fumble later on. Based on Gael Collaboration thread for The Western Island area

The Economic Crisis of the 80s
Known as The Gael Crash or later on the Aruian Fumble, was an economic crisis that began at the start of the 80s due to a main bank “Bank of Gael” in Gaels stocks crashing dramatically for unknown reasons,leading to many investors to cash out from Gael stock markets and immediate halt of using Gael currency for trade.
Currency value is decreased in all of Gael, affecting Roendavars main market investors, and later on, leading to a complete lay off in many business sectors across Gael with the main Gael bank failing to hand out money for several days.
The main Gael bank is under an umbrella corporation called “Gael Finances” that sit in Aruia and has several bank companies across the TWI. after many layoffs across Gael, riots in Roendavar pressure from nations lead to a full investigation it is discovered that a complete mishandle by the ministry of finance and ministry of commerce in property led to the start extreme stock value crashing and leading to a complete economic crisis.


General timeline of the Market crash:
70s - Economy and trade all through 1970s to the start of 1980 revolve around treaties that were regulated by the transgoverment body: Association of Central Gaeltic States with the exclusion of some Gael state such as Aruia.
1973 - Gael Finance and Bank of Gael secretly been nationalized and seized by the ministry of commerce and finance, under the labor party.
- civil wars occur through Orsandia, Balnik leading to heavy focus and involving the ACGS with Ostehaar making heavy investment and direct involvement in the activity.
1974 - Bank Lidara in Aruia has been acquired by Gael Finance, expert in loans, stock market and share holds worth with existing branches in D&S and Ainslie as well.
1975 to 1980s - Gael Finance uses Bank Lidara as an extension arm to hand out large loans to companies affected by the civil wars economical outcome
- several governments make risky loan moves that are a breach of the ACGS in order to recover from a post war period.
- ACGS in response encourages deregulation moves, allowing Gael Finance to form hostile take over on several banks across Gael.
- a massive drop in Bank of Gaels stocks causes investors to pull out Gaeltic projects and investments. ACGS proves incompetent and begins to dissolve itself.
- Bank of Gael floods the Gael market with Magarati products and labor, additional flood of foreign cheap good lead to a loss in many local manufactures and a mass recession period.
1982 to 1984 - ACGS officially dissolves, forcing nations like Ostehaar to pick up the burden of post civil war nations political stability which in response weaken its market
- Aruia shows spike of recovery thanks to the involvement of the ministries in Gael Finance keep the Aruian market partially stable in comparison to the rest of Gael
- post Joel Gisbourne government begins investigating into all failing and bank robbed companies in Ainslie, leading back to Gael Finance. Backed by other nations in Gael an international investigation begins.

1985 - see out comes.

Outcomes:
Roendovar riots start, leading Roendovar to a bordering socialist nation
Aruia: people completely mistrust the government's economic plans, and Aruia closes down the ministry of commerce and ministry of finance as a first act that begins a market rehabilitation project.
Ainslie:

Key notes prior:
Ostehaar already through the mid-80s suffer an economic crisis from being involved in two wars, with the additional aspect of a market crash and decrease in Gael currency value could have derailed Ostehaars economy even deeper to a recession.
Verdon in the early 80s enter a civil war, the economic crisis could be additional fuel for the civil war with it ends signaling a market recovery process in Verdon specifically.

affected banks:
Bank of Gael(All of Gael)
Bank Lidara (Aruia)
Lennester Bank (Ainslie)
Bank of Kapolder (Dormill and Stiura)

List of businesses affected:
De'Vira Investments (Aruia)

[Aruia]

Options with Ainslie:

the excessive deregulation by the prime minister allowed foreign businesses to enter, Gael Finance entered very aggressively while prior to that pulled the strings through the two Aruian ministries to pull this type of agendas that would allow the body to do a hostile take over several companies, banks, and stock value papers. The deregulation made Ainslies currency weaken which led to a lot of businesses being weaken

Other option could be that the deregulations allowed many companies to enter, it was this arbitrary decision making that allowed Ainslies market to weaken and allow bodies Gael Finance to seize control on important assets to Anhelsen market.

Athera Magarat -
To try and cover tracks or fix this thing, Bank of Gael started importing cheap manufacturing from AM and use Gael Finance to bring into the entire Gael market. But with the cheap price, the quality was cheap and sometimes unregulated, perhaps even toxic when it came to consumption handling?
massive regulation and taxing at the end of the 80s allowed many of the Gael nations to recover somewhat thanks to taxing and crackdown on AM goods.

[Athara Magarat]

Options with Ainslie:

the excessive deregulation by the prime minister allowed foreign businesses to enter, Gael Finance entered very aggressively while prior to that pulled the strings through the two Aruian ministries to pull this type of agendas that would allow the body to do a hostile take over several companies, banks, and stock value papers. The deregulation made Ainslies currency weaken which led to a lot of businesses being weaken

Other option could be that the deregulations allowed many companies to enter, it was this arbitrary decision making that allowed Ainslies market to weaken and allow bodies Gael Finance to seize control on important assets to Anhelsen market.

Athera Magarat -
To try and cover tracks or fix this thing, Bank of Gael started importing cheap manufacturing from AM and use Gael Finance to bring into the entire Gael market. But with the cheap price, the quality was cheap and sometimes unregulated, perhaps even toxic when it came to consumption handling?
massive regulation and taxing at the end of the 80s allowed many of the Gael nations to recover somewhat thanks to taxing and crackdown on AM goods.

Green light from me.

[Ostehaar]

Le Tadge.

[Ainslie]

Options with Ainslie:

the excessive deregulation by the prime minister allowed foreign businesses to enter, Gael Finance entered very aggressively while prior to that pulled the strings through the two Aruian ministries to pull this type of agendas that would allow the body to do a hostile take over several companies, banks, and stock value papers. The deregulation made Ainslies currency weaken which led to a lot of businesses being weaken

Yep, this fits in well with what I’ve already got. Condor, the next PM, would come in and block a whole lot of the takeovers eventually though.

[Ostehaar]

Ostehaar already through the mid-80s suffer an economic crisis from being involved in two wars, with the additional aspect of a market crash and decrease in Gael currency value could have derailed Ostehaars economy even deeper to a recession. Verdon in the early 80s enter a civil war, the economic crisis could be additional fuel for the civil war with it ends signaling a market recovery process in Verdon specifically.

Suggestion - massive investment by the Oster government and public sector in post-civil-war Verdon's recovery (infrastructure, energy, re-equipping the military, etc.) helped Ostehaar accelerate its own post-recession recovery...

[Aruia]

Options with Ainslie:

the excessive deregulation by the prime minister allowed foreign businesses to enter, Gael Finance entered very aggressively while prior to that pulled the strings through the two Aruian ministries to pull this type of agendas that would allow the body to do a hostile take over several companies, banks, and stock value papers. The deregulation made Ainslies currency weaken which led to a lot of businesses being weaken

Yep, this fits in well with what I’ve already got. Condor, the next PM, would come in and block a whole lot of the takeovers eventually though.

i think what could be given here that Condor demanded the investigation into Gael Finance due to their destructive behavior in Ainslie and connection directly to the crash which would lead in Aruias liberalization in 90s

[Ainslie]

Yep, this fits in well with what I’ve already got. Condor, the next PM, would come in and block a whole lot of the takeovers eventually though.

i think what could be given here that Condor demanded the investigation into Gael Finance due to their destructive behavior in Ainslie and connection directly to the crash which would lead in Aruias liberalization in 90s

condor wouldn't need to do anything like that - the judicial council would be angry enough that they'd do it themselves and override condor's wishes

[Aruia]

i think what could be given here that Condor demanded the investigation into Gael Finance due to their destructive behavior in Ainslie and connection directly to the crash which would lead in Aruias liberalization in 90s

condor wouldn't need to do anything like that - the judicial council would be angry enough that they'd do it themselves and override condor's wishes

Either way it would be justified that an Ainslie power backed by either Ostehaar or Roendovar into an investigation and then taking action that would, mainly Ainslie was directly affected by Gael Finance and the Aruian government

Ostehaar already through the mid-80s suffer an economic crisis from being involved in two wars, with the additional aspect of a market crash and decrease in Gael currency value could have derailed Ostehaars economy even deeper to a recession. Verdon in the early 80s enter a civil war, the economic crisis could be additional fuel for the civil war with it ends signaling a market recovery process in Verdon specifically.

Suggestion - massive investment by the Oster government and public sector in post-civil-war Verdon's recovery (infrastructure, energy, re-equipping the military, etc.) helped Ostehaar accelerate its own post-recession recovery...

For that we would need to polish in what period did Verdons civil war ended, what led to the decision to invest in Verdon after a civil were and who was the leader at the time. It can help the private sector but Ostehaar government would need justification to have public funds be poured over to Verdon instead of itself.

[Verdon]

For that we would need to polish in what period did Verdons civil war ended, what led to the decision to invest in Verdon after a civil were and who was the leader at the time. It can help the private sector but Ostehaar government would need justification to have public funds be poured over to Verdon instead of itself.

Civil War stretches from '82 to '94 - it is drawn out and devastating, and ultimately is what kept Verdon's economy from keeping pace with that of its neighbors. In context, Ostehaar's involvement supplies funding and munitions to a 'third party' faction that rises out of the turmoil. In essence, Ostehaar buys a seat at the table of the new government of Verdon (perhaps not as open as that, but certainly enough to shape the country's new economic policies to be very Oster-friendly). As soon as the war ends, Verdon becomes a new multi-billion dollar market up for grabs. By pouring money into Verdon, my nation then reinvests in needed resources from Ostehaar - both reconstructing my nation, rejuvinating his economy and expanding his industries abroad.

[Ostehaar]

For that we would need to polish in what period did Verdons civil war ended, what led to the decision to invest in Verdon after a civil were and who was the leader at the time. It can help the private sector but Ostehaar government would need justification to have public funds be poured over to Verdon instead of itself.

Civil War stretches from '82 to '94 - it is drawn out and devastating, and ultimately is what kept Verdon's economy from keeping pace with that of its neighbors. In context, Ostehaar's involvement supplies funding and munitions to a 'third party' faction that rises out of the turmoil. In essence, Ostehaar buys a seat at the table of the new government of Verdon (perhaps not as open as that, but certainly enough to shape the country's new economic policies to be very Oster-friendly). As soon as the war ends, Verdon becomes a new multi-billion dollar market up for grabs. By pouring money into Verdon, my nation then reinvests in needed resources from Ostehaar - both reconstructing my nation, rejuvinating his economy and expanding his industries abroad.

Exactly. Cool. (:

[Miklania]

This is just a tag. Nothing to see. Move along.

[Aruia]

Civil War stretches from '82 to '94 - it is drawn out and devastating, and ultimately is what kept Verdon's economy from keeping pace with that of its neighbors. In context, Ostehaar's involvement supplies funding and munitions to a 'third party' faction that rises out of the turmoil. In essence, Ostehaar buys a seat at the table of the new government of Verdon (perhaps not as open as that, but certainly enough to shape the country's new economic policies to be very Oster-friendly). As soon as the war ends, Verdon becomes a new multi-billion dollar market up for grabs. By pouring money into Verdon, my nation then reinvests in needed resources from Ostehaar - both reconstructing my nation, rejuvinating his economy and expanding his industries abroad.

Exactly. Cool. (:

with that its need to be pointed out Aruias economy and market already stabalized in 1982 which led to investigating into Gael Finance. and the investigating ends at 85'.
question is if specifically Verdon and Ostehaars economic trouble goes all the way into h 90s way after Gael Finance become an international body for economy and banking.

[Ostehaar]

question is if specifically Verdon and Ostehaars economic trouble goes all the way into the 90s way after Gael Finance become an international body for economy and banking.

The Oster economic trouble go on for 84-89 and the recovery period is roughly the 90's...

[Aruia]

The what could be said with the market crash is the most impacted are Ostehaar and Verdon due to the situation, a good result is that the local currency in both Ostehaar and Verdon drop completely which would lead to high poverty waves.
What could happen is that all the way to the 90s Ainslie Ostehaar and Verdon use Gael Finance as an international body to help restabilize the Gael market specifically and directly by shifting it into both Ostehaar and Verdons market to stabilize the industry and consumer market there. Roendovar is in some heavy left period which makes them a bit disconnected from this liberalization behavior but they support it with the intention of having Gaels market richer, this allows many private sectors based in all of Gael to blossom, making investors focus on developing Gael goods than importing foreign goods. Mid 95s would be Gaels exporting golden age.

[Verdon]

The what could be said with the market crash is the most impacted are Ostehaar and Verdon due to the situation, a good result is that the local currency in both Ostehaar and Verdon drop completely which would lead to high poverty waves.
What could happen is that all the way to the 90s Ainslie Ostehaar and Verdon use Gael Finance as an international body to help restabilize the Gael market specifically and directly by shifting it into both Ostehaar and Verdons market to stabilize the industry and consumer market there. Roendovar is in some heavy left period which makes them a bit disconnected from this liberalization behavior but they support it with the intention of having Gaels market richer, this allows many private sectors based in all of Gael to blossom, making investors focus on developing Gael goods than importing foreign goods. Mid 95s would be Gaels exporting golden age.

I am fine with this, as far as my nation is concerned. The economic crash would be particularly harsh here in a nation racked by civil war. I do enjoy the narrative of a nation clawing its way out of poverty and bloodshed.

[Aruia]

So this leaves us with the post period of the crash. How does each nation kept themselve from collapsing entirely and what body ledthe regional stability and which nation and leader worked for that.

[Ainslie]

So this leaves us with the post period of the crash. How does each nation kept themselve from collapsing entirely and what body ledthe regional stability and which nation and leader worked for that.

Before I get into the post I would like to thank our sponsor RAID: SHADOW LEGENDS

In Ainslie, I have this a bit worked out already. Joel Gisbourne (the rubbish PM who helps Ainslie to collapse) gets kicked out and Archer Condor gets the reins - he halts many of the privatisations of companies owned by the state, instead negotiating that the federal government remains to hold sizeable chunks of stock in various companies - most 51% or over, with the exception of Arendai at 30%. This, followed by a swift macroeconomic response, allows for the destabilisation of the Ahnslen economy. Furthermore, a microeconomic response is employed to improve the efficiency of various industries which allows the nation to restructure from being a net exporter to a net importer.

There's not heaps of specifics, but hopefully it's enough that we can spark some discussion and collaboration regarding it.

[Dormill and Stiura]

So I didn't realize this was a thing that was canonized in my absence. So there's a lot I want to bring up for this.

First off, I should remind everyone that 1979 ended with the total collapse of socialist governments across Gael. Both Noronnica's and Balnik's Civil Wars began here with the overthrow of their socialist governments, Orsandia's Civil War was coming to an end, and Stiura's deep left socialist party gave way to a center-left party for the first time in the history of the Second Stiuraian Republic. It would not at all be unexpected that the Gael Crash had its origins in the collapse of, or radical change in, nearly every government on the continent. In addition, the Struggle, the pseudo civil war in northern Aruia and southern Polangae had reached it's most intense period in '79.

Secondly, I will obviously offer up the Bank of Kapolder to the chopping block of non-national banks that suffered in the process. Basically all of my businesses as well suffered.

Thirdly, does the Crash have an exact year? Because we basically have two options. The first is to have the crash happen at the turn of 1980 with Civil Wars already underway in several places and civil conflict in others, or around 1989, as the stress of all of these conflicts plus more compounded to completely cripple Gael in the worst depression since the Great Depression.

As for how the United Republics responded, I do have this from my history dispatch.

The most critical of such problems [for the new Liberal government] was the rampant unemployment and runaway inflation initiated by the Gael Crash of 1989 and reinforced by a Housing Crisis at the tail end of the Arvannan War. The Liberal Government stepped in with a pair of wide-reaching programs intended to “force” the invisible hand to work in favor of the Dormill-Stiuraian people, enacting laws to create the Ministries of Labor and Employment, and Housing and Development; which was followed by the Reformed Banking Act of 1994 which established multiple new institutions such as the Bank of the United Republics that serves as the Central Bank of the nation to this day.

This is very much not the extent of how D&S responded, but this was written before the Crash was agreed upon so widely, so I hope we can work on this so I can make this part of my history more dynamic.

Extension: So I've just finished reading all the relevant info regarding the crash and there are a few things I picked up on that are strange or I think I can help expand on.

Aruia - I don't honestly believe an economic crash on this scale can be recovered from in the manner of a year, not to pre-crash levels anyways. This would be the most severe economic downturn in Gael since the Great Wars, so my thoughts go to the fact that this lasted at least through the 1990s and possibly into the early 2000s.

Additionally, I would like to offer an answer to the weird "Bank of Gael" thing that I've seen. I assume for now it's Aruian so for as much as I would not like to rob it from you I do have to offer the Association of Central Gaeltic States as a means by which this institution is formed. The ACGS was an intergovernmental organization best described as a loose collection of forums and treaties signed mostly between Doraltic nations (which I hope to expand to Gael in general) as a means of normalizing affairs in the late 1970s. Most importantly among these were agreements regarding trade, investment, and international currency exchange. While "Bank of Gael" is probably fair to be left around, I would argue that making it a colloquial name for a broader institution focused on investing in Gaeltic economies and acting as an international economic mediator in a time of extreme tension across the continent would work better for us all, especially nations in need of money to finance their continued conflicts both civil and between each other.

This leads to points made by Ainslie in the original thread

I’m thinking Bank of Gael would buy over Lennester Bank and cause it a whole lot of grief by scaring off investors. The overall deteriorating economic conditions would then translate to Ainslie due to its sudden vulnerability to global markets - whether that be a collapse in consumer confidence, a darkening in the economic outlook or investor uncertainty.

I also support this reality, but not through this institution. It would make sense that a collapse of the financial system starting by a hostile takeover of Bulge Bracket Banks would be a kicker for the whole crisis, as the remainder of Gael's Bulge Bracket Banks all simultaneously lose value. If this is the ultimate path we go with, I think the trigger would be the cessation of membership for one or multiple ACGS states at the same time, citing a lack of economic independence as the "Bank of Gael" began to take on features of what would become the new Doraltic economic system. This collapse marks the end of the ACGS as everybody pulls out of it except for the original Doraltic states, who by 1982 have begun to dismantle it and replace it with the United Republics.

This does, in the end, make the newly reunited Dormill and Stiura an international pariah as all of Gael now points to it as the source of the Crash, a sentiment that took decades of hard diplomatic work and membership in the subsequent Gael Four to even partially fix.

[Ostehaar]

*posted before your edit*

We don't have to agree on a specific year for it - such events aren't bound to a specific time and may evolve over several years. You can change your nation's history to fit it, but you really don't have to.

Ostehaar's economic depression was roughly between the years 1984 and 1989, if it helps.

[Aruia]

snip

i want to note that "Bank of Gael" is s a shiny name for a bank owned by an Aruian umbrella conglomerate named "Gael Finances", which the minister of finance and minister of commerce had direct share holds in it after it was secretly partially nationalized in 1973. they used their power and influence to make hostile take over on several companies but mainly banks and turning them into sub-branch of "Bank of Gael" when Bank of Gaels stocks drop it takes with it the entire ship along with it, businesses that have their portfolios in sub-branches of Bank of Gael suffer severely, some are erased completely.

There is something worth noting: periods of economic recovery can be flexible in the term, some nations manage to recover easily while for others it takes slower periods of time. Or just have a small spike to their economy but aren't entirely recovered. Each nation needs to decide on a period that it makes sense for them to recover, Aruia managed to recover fast enough for the simple fact that all this happened in the first place by direct involvement by Aruias ministry of finance and Aruias ministry of commerce.

The only reason Aruia began to show a spike of stability in its economy is that it was an attempt to control the cross-nation economy by the two ministeries directly. Aruia had no wars or civil wars like a lot of nations in Gael, so it would be easier to rehabilitate from a crash. But the spike in sudden wealth in Aruia after a year is what led to the investigation against "Gael Finance" which led to discovering that it was partially had involvement of the ministry of economy and ministry of finance.

I also support this reality, but not through this institution. It would make sense that a collapse of the financial system starting by a hostile takeover of Bulge Bracket Banks would be a kicker for the whole crisis, as the remainder of Gael's Bulge Bracket Banks all simultaneously lose value. If this is the ultimate path we go with, I think the trigger would be the cessation of membership for one or multiple ACGS states at the same time, citing a lack of economic independence as the "Bank of Gael" began to take on features of what would become the new Doraltic economic system. This collapse marks the end of the ACGS as everybody pulls out of it except for the original Doraltic states, who by 1982 have begun to dismantle it and replace it with the United Republics.

This does, in the end, make the newly reunited Dormill and Stiura an international pariah as all of Gael now points to it as the source of the Crash, a sentiment that took decades of hard diplomatic work and membership in the subsequent Gael Four to even partially fix.

there needs to be a justification for this mass private takeovers I agree with that.
what could happen is either:

• the ACGS influence when enforcing agreements proven weak that it led to nation pulling out.
• civil wars force the body to be focused on those nations who deal with civil wars to have their treaties protected and which led to them not taking note of "Gael Finances" hostile takeovers.
• Ainslies membership is revoked due to Joel Gisbourne agenda that were a breach of treaties, with one member leaving revoked other left.
• Aruia simply was not part of the treaty and allowed a to work outside of the treaties, Aruia wasn't very involved in treaties like that until the 90s to begin with. And once the ACGS had an economic crisis on their hands it proved too incompetent or irrelevant to handle it and was dissolved.]

I would like to incorporate the ACGS in this because it can have other nation-building options to go with

[Dormill and Stiura]

i want to note that "Bank of Gael" is s a shiny name for a bank owned by an Aruian umbrella conglomerate named "Gael Finances", which the minister of finance and minister of commerce had direct share holds in it after it was secretly partially nationalized in 1973. they used their power and influence to make hostile take over on several companies but mainly banks and turning them into sub-branch of "Bank of Gael" when Bank of Gaels stocks drop it takes with it the entire ship along with it, businesses that have their portfolios in sub-branches of Bank of Gael suffer severely, some are erased completely.

Yeah I can accept that. But perhaps the Gael Finance had its origins in the environment the ACGS was creating.

there needs to be a justification for this mass private takeovers I agree with that.
what could happen is either:

• the ACGS influence when enforcing agreements proven weak that it led to nation pulling out.
• civil wars force the body to be focused on those nations who deal with civil wars to have their treaties protected and which led to them not taking note of "Gael Finances" hostile takeovers.
• Ainslies membership is revoked due to Joel Gisbourne agenda that were a breach of treaties, with one member leaving revoked other left.
• Aruia simply was not part of the treaty and allowed a to work outside of the treaties, Aruia wasn't very involved in treaties like that until the 90s to begin with. And once the ACGS had an economic crisis on their hands it proved too incompetent or irrelevant to handle it and was dissolved.]

I would like to incorporate the ACGS in this because it can have other nation-building options to go with

Honestly, all four of these scenarios can, and should, happen at the same time.

The ACGS, as I mentioned, was at best a loose association. It most certainly did not have the power to enforce the agreements it made. At best it could recommend other members to take action but I doubt throughout its rather brief life would anything the Association did to reign in a member worked out favorably as a whole. This leads into the situation with Ainslie. It's probably fair to say that if Ains would want to be a member at the time the Crash began, the Association could have encouraged Gisbourne to deregulate the nation's economy in exchange for support by way of investment and loans. This is where Gael Finance comes in, and your non-membership; operating outside of the system, Gael Finance could easily hand out risky loans to basically any Gaeltic business and got rich off the system the ACGS was trying to build. The ACGS's distraction in Orsandian rebuilding efforts was more than enough cover for the predatory affairs of Gael Finance to go unnoticed until it was too late.

By 1982, the ACGS had dissolved back to the core Doraltic states, who in Kapolder took measures to dismantle the organization officially and use its systems to rebuild a united Doraltic economy. Once the ACGS was officially dissolved in 1990, that was the end of that. In the interim, it might be possible that it was key in the investigations against Gael Finance but I'm not entirely sure if it would have an investigatory committee and if it could be able to investigate the affairs of a non-member.

[Balnik]

Well now that I'm moving to Gael this "crash" coincides with my civil war. For Balnik the economic hardships would begin in 1977~1979. This is due to assumed sanctions from many of the other nations of Gael enacting sanctions and harsh economic blocks onto Balnik to force a more market system and more political freedoms onto the country. The culmination of this economic tug of war and political tension would result in the December Coup and in turn the Balniki civil war.

So I guess I can place the causes into three core points.

-Gael influence and pressure on the Balniki economy results in negative effects and a recession in the economy.
-Liberal and Hardline elements within the Communist government result in government ineffeciency and an inability to tackle economic change in a meaningful way.
-Political instability causes economic uncertainty with private elements, unwilling to risk investment and purchases from Balnik in fear of political upheaval or general material loss.

After the war the economy would be in shambles with outcomes being as follows.

-Economic devastation causes large human development drops and poverty and famine to reign in Balnik.
-Fascist aggressive state projects and welcoming attitude to foreign elements and appeasement of Gael and most international nations result in more foreign involvement in Balniki economics.
-The Krav is rebuilt and reformed and begins to circulate as the new standard in Balnik as minor debts are repaid to regain credit confidence.

[Aruia]

Honestly, all four of these scenarios can, and should, happen at the same time.

The ACGS, as I mentioned, was at best a loose association. It most certainly did not have the power to enforce the agreements it made. At best it could recommend other members to take action but I doubt throughout its rather brief life would anything the Association did to reign in a member worked out favorably as a whole. This leads into the situation with Ainslie. It's probably fair to say that if Ains would want to be a member at the time the Crash began, the Association could have encouraged Gisbourne to deregulate the nation's economy in exchange for support by way of investment and loans. This is where Gael Finance comes in, and your non-membership; operating outside of the system, Gael Finance could easily hand out risky loans to basically any Gaeltic business and got rich off the system the ACGS was trying to build. The ACGS's distraction in Orsandian rebuilding efforts was more than enough cover for the predatory affairs of Gael Finance to go unnoticed until it was too late.

By 1982, the ACGS had dissolved back to the core Doraltic states, who in Kapolder took measures to dismantle the organization officially and use its systems to rebuild a united Doraltic economy. Once the ACGS was officially dissolved in 1990, that was the end of that. In the interim, it might be possible that it was key in the investigations against Gael Finance but I'm not entirely sure if it would have an investigatory committee and if it could be able to investigate the affairs of a non-member.

So basically it boils down to the economic crisis that started in in 1980s when it comes to the ACGS proving to the body to be incompetent.
Yes it makes sense to me that Aruias businesses would work out side that system. And when it came down to trying to help with all the civil wars that happened up to the 80s, the body came to realise it neglected in its duty which led to its dissolve process starting in 1980.
Getting rich early prior to the market crash is what can justify Aruia stabilizing so fast thanks to it being partially nationalized body, without the awareness of the entire nation. handcraft market in Aruia at the time flourished because Aruians returned to agriculture and handcraft works so Aruia had even in this situation a stable import and export good market to rely on, all while to cover track and attempt to show Bank of Gael is in control it imported cheap labor and goods from Athera Magarat to places that were incomplete economical ruins like Balnik. So Balnik heavily relied all during the collapse on this cheap work to have little of what left of its market and GDP it can even justify Balnik being used later on for cheap factories in Balniks land semi owned by Bank of Gael from AM companies.
By 1982 when the ACGS was completely dissolved powers like Ainslie who had their largest banks and business struck by Bank of Gael would demand investigation, leading to one of Aruias largest scandals and the main reason the body that monitor finance and commerce is a separate entity from the government.

After the war, the economy would be in shambles with outcomes being as follows.

-Economic devastation causes large human development drops and poverty and famine to reign in Balnik.
-Fascist aggressive state projects and welcoming attitude to foreign elements and appeasement of Gael and most international nations result in more foreign involvement in Balniki economics.
-The Krav is rebuilt and reformed and begins to circulate as the new standard in Balnik as minor debts are repaid to regain credit confidence.

the rise of Fascists in the country could be justified that a lot of foreign cheap factories were built in Balnik during the 80s with low income to workers who were desperate for income to feed their families, the government that approved needed a way to keep market consumption existing. And into the mid-80s the fascist government could turn its rhetoric from trying to appease Gael into using the card of being victims of the situation.


**also i updated the main post

[Balnik]

the rise of Fascists in the country could be justified that a lot of foreign cheap factories were built in Balnik during the 80s with low income to workers who were desperate for income to feed their families, the government that approved needed a way to keep market consumption existing. And into the mid-80s the fascist government could turn its rhetoric from trying to appease Gael into using the card of being victims of the situation.

Yeah that sort of reasoning works well, especially to this day since Balnik's major exports are steelworks and heavy machinery. Plus this gives me a reason for decent development in such a short amount of time if the nations of Gael were willing to put in money for cheap goods.