Sir William K. Ecclestone, KCG
Embassy of the Kingdom of Apilonia, Praetoria
The Union of South Africa
Friday 18th September 2020, 1500hrs Local Time
The Union of South Africa had been the sole bright point of Apilonia’s retreat from Empire, which had been mostly shambolic, ill-conceived, and poorly executed that had left a lasting blemish on the Kingdom’s international reputation, which it had only just recovered from, and threw up national security concerns to this day. In stark contrast to East Africa, which had become under the control of an initially benevolent, but steadily less so, authoritarian strongman in the form of Emmanuel Xavier, South Africa had embraced the democratic ideals of it’s former colonial master and had developed a strong tradition for the rule of law. It had been a difficult process, and there had been some racial conflict between the native Africans and white Apilonian expatriates and former settlers, not to mention those persons of mixed-race who had come about largely due to intermarriage between the Apilonians and the natives. Ultimately however, and thanks largely to direct intervention and mediation by the Apilonian Monarch, the democratic ideals had won out and a delicate, but ultimately stable, compromise had been reached and any remaining conflicts were increasingly handled on the political theatre; due in no small part to the fact that the expatriate Apilonians remained the wealthy minority and were able to exert a significant amount of political influence despite numerous concessions.
Of course, even this ‘success story’ for the Liberal Party, which had presided over the retreat from Empire and the crisis of confidence, was questionable. Given the wealthy Apilonian and mixed minority within the Union, which made up about a third of the population, strongly advocated for an enduring political relationship with the Kingdom, and given that the native South Africans had been ambivalent about the idea of independence, it would have been entirely possible for the Kingdom to retain South Africa within it’s fold; it was widely accepted that an arrangement similar to that which had recently been implemented in the new Duchy of East Africa would have been acceptable to most within the Union. However, that wasn’t good enough for the Liberal Party however, who believed that it was their moral duty to dismantle Apilonia’s colonial empire and had proceeded apace without regard for any alternatives. It would ultimately be to their own demise, as deep down many Apilonians had valued it’s overseas possessions, both on principle and for the economic strength it provided, and they were soon voted out office and have never truly recovered, despite the numerous social policy successes.
If the Liberal Party’s policies had been to the detriment of their own electoral success, they had been devastating to many of the former Apilonian colonies. Regardless of where one stood on the ideas of imperialism and colonialism, it was never the less accepted that colonial rule typically resulted in an increased standard of living, healthcare and economic opportunity in the colonies, particularly once the Apilonian Foreign and Colonial Office had implemented a policy encouraging the of inclusion native populations in a deliberate effort to provide for a long-term viability for these colonial possessions. Indeed, although the damage was significantly less in South Africa due it’s democratic system and general stability, the evidence of this was striking in many former colonies, which lagged dramatically behind in both GDP per capita and quality of living. Even South Africa was noticeably behind the curve, despite investments by the Kingdom over the years. It would be naïve to assume that, had the colonies been retained, that they would enjoy the same level of development and economic strength as the mainland Kingdom, for a wide variety of reasons, but it was difficult to argue that they wouldn’t have been better off had efforts been made to retain them by the Kingdom.
It was largely for that reason that there remained a strong faction within the Union of South Africa, which included all the former Apilonian colonies in the southern part of the continent; including the Cape Colony, the Colony of Botswana, the Colony of Namibia, and the Colony of Zimbabwe, arguing for a political union with the Kingdom. It was a faction that was heavily supported by the Apilonian expatriates, but also those mixed-race and native Africans who had been able to become wealthier as well as businessmen and those relying on trade; there was absolutely no question that joining the Kingdom would be a positive for the economy. In general, and the reason why it had never come to pass, was that it was opposed by the South African Socialist Party (SASP), which had a strong following amongst the poor and disadvantaged. Nevertheless, as the years had passed, and the Kingdom had become noticeably more proactive in it’s foreign policy again, support for the idea had grown over recent years, particularly as existing Apilonian holdings on Malta and in the Persian Gulf received significant devolved powers which indicated that the Kingdom would likely be willing to accept significant concessions.
Indeed, many in both the Union and in the Kingdom had seen the eventual outcome as a foregone conclusion as the SASP steadily lost ground in a series of elections in favour of the Democratic Alliance, a coalition of centrist and centre-right parties which openly backed a political union with the Kingdom of Apilonia… on the assumption that there would be significant devolved powers. That had all changed in the Presidential Election of 2016, in which a prominent native African businessman, Sibusiso Mashinini had shocked the nation to it’s core by winning the election, despite a complete lack of political experience. In addition to being a successful businessman, and the single largest non-governmental employer in the entire Union, which meant that many employees, former employees, and their dependents owed him a great deal, Mashinini had run on a explicitly populist platform that had riled up many of the native African majority against the wealthy Apilonian and mixed minority. To the surprise of pretty much everyone, Mashinini had also an… interesting relationship with the truth but the largely poorly educated masses that flocked to his banner either did not know or didn’t care.
After assuming the Office of President of the Union of South Africa, Mashinini had wasted absolutely no time in rolling back the cooperation that had existed between successive governments and the Kingdom of Apilonia. Almost immediately, Apilonian investment in South Africa was banned as ‘prejudicial to the internal security of the Union’, South African citizens were discouraged from attending University or other higher education in the Kingdom, to the extent that it was even hinted that their degrees would not be recognized (despite the esteem that Apilonian universities were usually held internationally), and existing Apilonian corporations outsourcing in the Union were hit by massive taxes that had almost immediately led to extensive lay-offs, particularly around the well-educated Apilonian expatriate and mixed minority. It had not been long before this suddenly disadvantaged group, which largely consisted of Apilonians and mixed off all ages, and a smart, hard-working young adult demographic of native Africans, had let it’s anger show in protests across the Union, several of which had turned violent.
In response, President Mashinini had not only deployed the South African National Police to put down the protests, but continued to aggravate his supporters, often leading to violence and street fighting between protestors and counter-protestors. Although there had always been tensions, largely along racial and ethnic lines, the President of the Union was normally a unifying figure and a calming influence; a role that President Mashinini had absolutely no intention of fulfilling. Ultimately, however, it had been this that had led to a waning of support, as the continuous street violence took a toll on the public and the National Police was increasingly unable to keep under control. Matters had not been helped when Mashinini had increasingly favoured his own Zulu over other ethnic groups, providing him a fiercely loyal base at the expense of alienating the rest of the black African majority.
This shift was unsettling to many within the Union (and to those watching it), especially as polling indicated that Mashinini was increasingly unlikely to win re-election. A significant portion of the non-Zulu black African majority had abandoned him in favour of the Democratic Alliance; popular opinion had largely shifted over the past four years to the view that stability and prosperity, which the Alliance (and thereby the Kingdom) offered was preferable to unrest and rhetoric. Yet rather than reaching out and trying to mend fences, Mashinini was doubling down on ensuring the loyalty of the single largest ethnic group in the Union. There was growing concern amongst many in the Democratic Alliance, and strong (but not completely confirmed) intelligence gathered by the Apilonian Royal Intelligence Service, suggesting that, in the event of his electoral defeat Mashinini, would refuse step aside and peacefully handover power… doubtless because many within the South African National Congress were calling for him to be prosecuted for his role in stoking the unrest.
It was unclear what would happen in the event that Mashinini did indeed refuse to step down; doubtless there would be massive protests and counter-protests, but there were also practical considerations. Under the Union’s constitution, the election was held on the third Friday in September, with the new President taking office on the first day of October, Union Day (the day which South Africa had gained independence from the Kingdom). As such, things would come to ahead one way or another and the consequences were potentially catastrophic.
It was to discuss the options, from the Apilonian perspective, that was the subject of the meeting at the Apilonian Embassy in Praetoria on the afternoon of the Union Election.
Sir William K. Ecclestone, His Majesty’s Ambassador to the Union of South Africa, was an experienced diplomat having held a number of prestigious appointments over his career, culminating in his current post. After all, although the other great powers were the most sought after posts, the diplomatic missions to former colonies were also prestigious and were, for the most part, relatively cushy appointments (although in recent years direction from the Foreign Office had been to be more proactive at strengthening ties) and were often used as gentle retirement posts. Such had been the case for Sir William, who was due to relinquish his post at the end of the year and to retire from the Diplomatic Service, however given everything that had happened during President Mashinini’s term, it had been far from a ‘gentle’ post. Nevertheless, Sir William had risen to the challenge as he had to all he had encountered during his career, and was thoroughly enjoying himself, with an energy that he had not felt in some years in the twilight of his career.
“Thank You all for gathering, I know we’re all very busy,” Sir William said with a slight smile as he sat down at the head of the conference table. “Before we get started, what’s the latest from the exit polls?”
The Counsellor for Political Affairs, Thomas J. Moore, nodded and leant forward as he handed a printout around the table. Polling prior to the election had been of questionable use to say the least, as not only was there a great deal of confusion about the results but entire areas were refusing to respond to pools. The exit poll, however, being conducted outside of every polling station in the Union, would likely provide a far more accurate result. Moreover, at the request of the opposition candidate, Jonathan Mulder, the Kingdom of Apilonia had deployed dozens of observers to oversee the election to determine whether it was conducted properly. President Mashinini had reluctantly agreed, although there were concerns that he would use the presence of Apilonian observers as part of his efforts to refuse to relinquish power, so the observers had been firmly instructed to remain strictly neutral. Nevertheless, it would provide a reasonable idea into the likely outcome of the election.
“All indications are that Congressman Mulder is going to win the election; he’s up by several points in key constituencies as far as the exit poll is already indicating, and that is backed up by our observers, this is despite some attempts at voter intimidation but the presence of our observers is restraining Zulu militias,” Moore explained, indicating to the figures on the printouts. “In terms of that voter intimidation, we’re mainly talking big crowds of military age males, largely Zulu as far as we can tell, standing around without much cause near to polling stations… they’re not making any overt threats, but their mere presence is obviously likely to be concerning to some voters.”
“So Mashinini is still trying to ‘win’ the election,” Sir William commented thoughtfully. “Very well, let’s assume that he loses, what is the opinion on how he is likely to proceed?”
“Well, as we all know, the President’s term of office comes to an end at noon on 1 October, at which point he will lose his constitutional power even if there is no widely accepted winner, so if he’s going to try and do anything quasi-constitutionally, he’ll do it before them,” Moore replied. “Initially, we expect that Mashinini and his people will try and undermine the legitimacy of the election if he loses, doubtless those crowds of his supporters will have ‘seen’ various irregularities, which is why both the opposition and our observers are ensuring that there is a visual feed at every polling place.”
“Do we anticipate him succeeding in that case?”
“No, it is the purview of the South African Congress to validate the election results, and although Mashinini has some supporters within the Congress, it’s not sufficient to reach the two-thirds majority that would be required to declare the election invalid,” Moore shook his head. “Moreover, in the event that the election is declared invalid, his term of office would only be extended long enough to hold another election, no more than ninety days, so it is not seen as a long-term solution to keep him in power, so we think it’ll be more to shape the narrative than anything else.”
“So, what do we think he will do?”
“Broadly, our analysts both here and at the Foreign Ministry back home, and indeed at the Royal Intelligence Service, believe that Mashinini will use the reserve powers of the Presidency to declare a National Emergency, under which he will claim that he can stay on after 1 October to ‘handle the threat facing the Union’,” Moore replied. “It’s at this point, when he starts to step outside the strict bounds of the constitution, that we anticipate there being extensive public protests as a result… all indications are that the scale of this unrest will make the existing protests look tiny by comparison… all indications on social media indicate extensive planning for such protests if they become necessary.”
“If I may interrupt, Sir William,” Edward A. Kirkland, the Counsellor for Consular Affairs. “That sounds rather dangerous, as law enforcement will likely be rather concerned about the sheer numbers, I’d say at that point we’d want to actively get our own citizens to safety.”
“That would be our assessment as well,” Chief Inspector Jennifer S. Fox of the Royal Apilonian Constabulary, the Resident Security Officer who was responsible for the security posture of the Embassy and the overall diplomatic mission. “We do not want our citizens getting caught in the middle of that scale of unrest.”
“Point taken,” Sir William said with a grim nod. “What impact do we anticipate the protests having?”
“There is a chance that the protests will be sufficient to encourage Mashinini to stand down, especially if he is able to negotiate some form of agreement that would allow him to escape prosecution for both the allegations of inciting riot and the campaign finance irregularities,” Moore shook his head. “However, as there is a solid majority of both elected representatives and amongst the public that the rule of law ought to apply to the President we think it is unlikely that such an agreement reached… although he may voluntarily flee the country.”
“And if he doesn’t?”
“This is where it gets very dangerous, and a lot depends on how successful Mashinini has been in riling up his base and in putting his supporters in key positions; a great deal depends on whether law enforcement and, ultimately, the military, accept Presidential orders to put down the protests and accept his holding on to power,” Moore explained. “Under ideal circumstances, both would refuse his orders both due to their illegal nature and due to the questionable legitimacy of his position, and we suspect law enforcement to refuse to do so, however we have very real concerns about the military… given their martial heritage the Zulu have an disproportionately large presence in the Union Military.”
“Which could be a problem,” Sir William sighed. “Alright, so we could be looking at Mashinini leading a military coup against the legitimate President.”
“Very possible, Sir William,” Moore nodded grimly.
“Very well,” Sir William said simply. “So, we’re looking at a Coup… what do we do?”
“It’s going to be a very delicate matter; we’ll want to keep ourselves out of the situation until the situation demands it, lest we provide Mashinini with the ammunition and justification he needs by our very actions, and yet we don’t want to be too late,” Moore replied, glancing around at the table. “The only situation we anticipate requiring an intervention by ourselves is in the event of Mashinini leading a military Coup by… in which case we’d have to take military action to support the legitimate President… so I’ll hand over to Colonel Tennent.”
Colonel James W. Tennent was the Defence Attaché assigned to the Embassy, late of the Cascade Guards.
“As Mister Moore rightly says, the entire affair will require delicate timing; given the distance from our nearest holdings in East Africa, we’re going to rely heavily on the Navy to support the legitimate winner, presumably Congressman Mulder, however we also don’t want the optics of hovering an aircraft carrier too close to South Africa, as we could be accused of attempting to intimidate the Union,” Colonel Tennent explained. “I’ve discussed the matter with planning staff at PJHQ, all military assessments indicate that a single carrier group is sufficient to take on both the Union Navy and the Union Air Force, as we don’t anticipate all their units to declare for Mashinini, as most of the Union Military is focused on ground warfare for geopolitical and strategic reasons, so we ought to be able to achieve naval and air superiority, at which point we can conduct strikes in support of the legitimate President.”
“Do we anticipate having to get involved on the ground?”
“We hope not, indeed, from a political perspective it would be sub-optimal and cause more issues,” Colonel Tennent shook his head, leaning back in his chair. “Even though President Mulder is likely to have a mandate in support of re-joining the Kingdom, the optics of our troops being on the ground before that happens is not brilliant.”
“Very true, as you both say it’s a very delicate situation,” Sir William commented dryly. “That being said, there’s little else we can do now but put our preparations in place and wait and see what happens… you never know, Mashinini might take his loss gracefully!”
“I very much doubt that,” Moore smirked.
“I do as well, but a man can hope, in the meantime, I want us to keep our ears to the ground, particularly from an intelligence perspective” Sir William admitted. “Good information and early intelligence is essential to our work here… so I’m going to request that HMG emphasise our intelligence work here.”
Sir William glanced around at the table.
“Any further questions or concerns?” He asked. “No? Alright, let us be about it then!”
