As the Poppies Bloom (TWI ONLY | OOC)

[Menna Shuli]

Alright, I've got posts to write and no real place to start.

At this point in realtime, Doraltic forces are about to begin their attack on Rio Pena, but at the same time I believe that the Mennan and Doraltic forces have finally linked up, with Miklanian and Svalbardian reinforcements due within the next day or two. Additionally, Noro has given me permission to take his AFSBs under his flag down to San Javier, where I will drop off more Doraltic and begin providing Mennan reinforcements as well. However, I want to at least have one or two posts where all the military leaders involved meet while the political leadership meets in MS to establish a joint task force for the operation, making it official.

After all that, I'll have 3-5 posts in Rio Pena where I expect more resistance than just gangbangers so I want to know who I'll be dealing with between Wellsian or Balniki forces before I start writing that arc out.

Thuz, I'll write out a flashback to our naval encounter as told by the captain of the Raphaël Van Horn as he defends his actions to the fleet.
Menna, I think after Rio Pena falls that the Junta will start seriously ramping up its defenses, what kind of an air force do they have that could harm our forces?

Ultimately, upon Menna's assent, I believe that the joint task force and the Javerian defenders will meet thrice more before the RP ends, once on the fields just south of Castillo Verde, in Castillo Verde itself, and finally in Puerto Polo where the junta finally surrenders and its allies scatter back to their home countries before being captured themselves. In the aftermath, I will have news posts about an oil panic happening as prices skyrocket, and push for further military cooperation between Gaeltic and Southern Sea Nations that will begin my journey towards Southern Sea integration. As for San Javier itself, I have two options to go with depending on what y'all want.

1) The joint task force is replaced by a League Peacekeepers force that will remain and facilitate the foundation of a democratic Javerian government. Most of their operations will include ending the cartels and regaining control of Mejures and San Martin.
2) Communist revolutionaries take advantage of the power vacuum to start a new revolution with the aid of TWI's communist powers, culminating in the establishment of a socialist state in San Javier again with massive amounts of aid being sent in from Thuzbekistan, AM, and Brulafi, establishing a communist stronghold in the Southern Sea to counter MSTO and Doraltic influence.

The Satep is going to be super uncomfortable with either outcome. Their goal was not to enact a change of government, but to scare the Javierans into no longer backing the rebels and warlords. Foreign powers stepping in and using the Mennan invasion as a means of establishing their own regime change will definitely have political consequences within the Satep.

Of course, I want there to eb consequences, so that's cool. I just have no idea of what the final fallout will be for MS.

[Miklania]

Ah. So it's already been set in stone that SJ will be defeated? That's a shame.

I mean, they don't really have the support not to. All the support they do have is very subtle or small.

They can still pull off something clever and/or have public opinion turn against the invasion. Or they could pull something out of their ass to flip the tables militarily.

[Menna Shuli]

I mean, they don't really have the support not to. All the support they do have is very subtle or small.

They can still pull off something clever and/or have public opinion turn against the invasion. Or they could pull something out of their ass to flip the tables militarily.

I mean, an important thing to remember is that right now the people support the People's Freedom Coalition, for all their totalitarianism. The PFC is the first government in 50 years to not only oversee peace andstability, but to begin construction of major infrastructure, to provide education and electricity, to basically do the things a government is supposed to do aside from have a military. The GDPpC of SJ has gone up by over $1000 in two years, which is substantial given that they were previously worse off than MS and are now in a much better position and still growing. Once the development catches hold, there's a good chance of an efficiency explosion and people's incomes are going to skyrocket. The irony being that the government is the military. A sudden, outside force coming in and trying to democratize would have eerie echoes of the way the original conflict started, and probably wouldn't be supported by the people. Any democracy that the League sets up would immediately be plagued by the people fighting against it. And in San Javier, that means a lot of armed people with military experience banding together.

[Balnik]

Ah. So it's already been set in stone that SJ will be defeated? That's a shame.

I mean, they don't really have the support not to. All the support they do have is very subtle or small.

Perhaps. You have a point. All it requires though is a strong will and a central understanding of warfare with a connected network. You don't have to send soldiers standing on top of burning aircraft carriers. You just have to make the war unpleasant enough for foreign actors that they begin to pull out. Any sort of mission against naval vessels would work quite well in demoralization, especially if they work.

[Miklania]

They can still pull off something clever and/or have public opinion turn against the invasion. Or they could pull something out of their ass to flip the tables militarily.

I mean, an important thing to remember is that right now the people support the People's Freedom Coalition, for all their totalitarianism. The PFC is the first government in 50 years to not only oversee peace andstability, but to begin construction of major infrastructure, to provide education and electricity, to basically do the things a government is supposed to do aside from have a military. The GDPpC of SJ has gone up by over $1000 in two years, which is substantial given that they were previously worse off than MS and are now in a much better position and still growing. Once the development catches hold, there's a good chance of an efficiency explosion and people's incomes are going to skyrocket. The irony being that the government is the military. A sudden, outside force coming in and trying to democratize would have eerie echoes of the way the original conflict started, and probably wouldn't be supported by the people. Any democracy that the League sets up would immediately be plagued by the people fighting against it. And in San Javier, that means a lot of armed people with military experience banding together.

One possibility is for the Communists to receive a very powerful MacGuffin from their supporters, which they use to reestablish themselves and worm their way into mainstream Javierian politics. The government, feeling the need for this MacGuffin to drive off the invaders, and not wishing to start another civil war while they are being invaded, go along with this. Meanwhile, popular support for the intervention in Miklania and D&S is faltering, especially with the mass escalation happening out at sea. The respective populaces don't see a point in starting IW3 or having any more of their young men killed over a stupid dirt poor island. They may also not be that supportive of the actions of our erstwhile Mennan allies. A dramatic battle that results in a setback for the invaders could occur as well, a sort of Blackhawk Down or Takur Ghar. The western contingent are left seeking an exit strategy while the Mennans are debating among themselves how to continue. Use of the MacGuffin or a second defeat in battle, combined with the withdrawal of the Miklanian and Doraltic troops, could lead to a rout. Sul could turn the situation into a mitigated disaster, instead of a regular disaster. He would return home a hero to some, a failure to others for his conduct of the war. Perhaps he fights a duel with the admiral over it.

[Negarakita]

I'd definitely say that the commies winning is the most interesting outcome, as it means that the two western powers went in to deal with a right wing government and ended up creating a leftist one. Plus it has fun consequences for geopolitical relations, becoming almost vietnam-like. Although the commies getting pwned is an epic reaffirmation of Nick Merah's opinion piece.

I mean, an important thing to remember is that right now the people support the People's Freedom Coalition, for all their totalitarianism. The PFC is the first government in 50 years to not only oversee peace andstability, but to begin construction of major infrastructure, to provide education and electricity, to basically do the things a government is supposed to do aside from have a military. The GDPpC of SJ has gone up by over $1000 in two years, which is substantial given that they were previously worse off than MS and are now in a much better position and still growing. Once the development catches hold, there's a good chance of an efficiency explosion and people's incomes are going to skyrocket. The irony being that the government is the military. A sudden, outside force coming in and trying to democratize would have eerie echoes of the way the original conflict started, and probably wouldn't be supported by the people. Any democracy that the League sets up would immediately be plagued by the people fighting against it. And in San Javier, that means a lot of armed people with military experience banding together.

One possibility is for the Communists to receive a very powerful MacGuffin from their supporters, which they use to reestablish themselves and worm their way into mainstream Javierian politics.

The ANLF get the holy prepuce and use it to gain the allegiance of the catholic population, leading the Miklanians and Dorms who are both majority catholic iirc to pull out.

[Menna Shuli]

I mean, an important thing to remember is that right now the people support the People's Freedom Coalition, for all their totalitarianism. The PFC is the first government in 50 years to not only oversee peace andstability, but to begin construction of major infrastructure, to provide education and electricity, to basically do the things a government is supposed to do aside from have a military. The GDPpC of SJ has gone up by over $1000 in two years, which is substantial given that they were previously worse off than MS and are now in a much better position and still growing. Once the development catches hold, there's a good chance of an efficiency explosion and people's incomes are going to skyrocket. The irony being that the government is the military. A sudden, outside force coming in and trying to democratize would have eerie echoes of the way the original conflict started, and probably wouldn't be supported by the people. Any democracy that the League sets up would immediately be plagued by the people fighting against it. And in San Javier, that means a lot of armed people with military experience banding together.

One possibility is for the Communists to receive a very powerful MacGuffin from their supporters, which they use to reestablish themselves and worm their way into mainstream Javierian politics. The government, feeling the need for this MacGuffin to drive off the invaders, and not wishing to start another civil war while they are being invaded, go along with this. Meanwhile, popular support for the intervention in Miklania and D&S is faltering, especially with the mass escalation happening out at sea. The respective populaces don't see a point in starting IW3 or having any more of their young men killed over a stupid dirt poor island. They may also not be that supportive of the actions of our erstwhile Mennan allies. A dramatic battle that results in a setback for the invaders could occur as well, a sort of Blackhawk Down or Takur Ghar. The western contingent are left seeking an exit strategy while the Mennans are debating among themselves how to continue. Use of the MacGuffin or a second defeat in battle, combined with the withdrawal of the Miklanian and Doraltic troops, could lead to a rout. Sul could turn the situation into a mitigated disaster, instead of a regular disaster. He would return home a hero to some, a failure to others for his conduct of the war. Perhaps he fights a duel with the admiral over it.

Hmm. I'm not so sure about the MacGuffin idea. It just feels a bit contrived given the story we already have going. Especially since the communists are more a background event than an actual motivator of the story. An interesting result may be that we do democratize the island, but the public sentiment is so against the interference of foreign powers that all that festering emotion causes a lot of people to start siding with the communists when they normally wouldn't (a lot of anger there, but even more anger against the foreigners coming in). This could effectively lead to a part three of the "San Javier Trilogy" where a proper communist uprising occurs (as opposed to the "revolution from above" that happened with the last communist go-around for the island) that leads to the "bastion of communism"" idea presented above. We could even run that as a story where, with a common enemy to rally against, the island truly does unify for the first time in forever and rapidly develops over the next couple of years.

EDIT: Actually, I fucking love this idea. It gives us a really cool story we can lead to when this one is done with a very different tone; we'd be playing the diplomats and advisors sent to try and establish the new government, suddenly faced with a people who absolutely do not want us there and an uprising viewed from this really neat outside perspective. I think this could really work.

[Athara Magarat]

If we are going this route, I have an idea.

AMI could be like "communist revolutions succeded in Magarat since there were no other leaders". And maybe try to implement that.

While Thuz and Dothrakia do the heavy stuff with their military presence, my folks could go around assassinating or blackmailing key Javieran people and blaming the fiasco on Mennans.

What do you think Menna Shuli, Thuzbekistan?

Another thing is, maybe we could arm the communist guerrillas with Doraltic and Miklanian weapons (obtained through maybe black market) to create confusion in the Coalition?

[Dormill and Stiura]

The only MacGuffin that would be on the table for the Communists is Balnik’s Falken Supersonic ASM. Using that to take out or force either my Navy or Mik’s to retreat away would give them enough space to make their move. The only problem is that I have no desire setting the United Republics Navy back about a decade to make that happen (the most valuable targets being the Cherys or the Union, both of which take about half a decade at least to go from laid to commissioned) and I don’t know where Mik stands on the same.

And if that did happen, Dyson’s Presidency is completely over and we see the Democrats take charge and radically shift Dormill and Stiura away from Federalism as fast as possible, that would be risking a revolt by the Republics and a civil war, again something I’m not interested in.

However, blending the two paths I set out would be interesting. Perhaps after Castillo Verde D&S decides to pull away, with the political situation growing out of its control. That could cause a chain reaction to organize a League Peacekeeping Force to be sent in the stead of our coalition, which the Javerians already see as a tool of the Mennans and their allies to justify their actions. This spurs anti-western sentiments and becomes the driving force for the communists and their allies to come in and offer a solution to remove the League and give San Javier the allies it needs to achieve stability.

[Miklania]

The only MacGuffin that would be on the table for the Communists is Balnik’s Falken Supersonic ASM. Using that to take out or force either my Navy or Mik’s to retreat away would give them enough space to make their move. The only problem is that I have no desire setting the United Republics Navy back about a decade to make that happen (the most valuable targets being the Cherys or the Union, both of which take about half a decade at least to go from laid to commissioned) and I don’t know where Mik stands on the same.

And if that did happen, Dyson’s Presidency is completely over and we see the Democrats take charge and radically shift Dormill and Stiura away from Federalism as fast as possible, that would be risking a revolt by the Republics and a civil war, again something I’m not interested in.

However, blending the two paths I set out would be interesting. Perhaps after Castillo Verde D&S decides to pull away, with the political situation growing out of its control. That could cause a chain reaction to organize a League Peacekeeping Force to be sent in the stead of our coalition, which the Javerians already see as a tool of the Mennans and their allies to justify their actions. This spurs anti-western sentiments and becomes the driving force for the communists and their allies to come in and offer a solution to remove the League and give San Javier the allies it needs to achieve stability.

MacGuffin wise I was thinking of chemical weapons.

[Dothrakia]

The only MacGuffin that would be on the table for the Communists is Balnik’s Falken Supersonic ASM. Using that to take out or force either my Navy or Mik’s to retreat away would give them enough space to make their move. The only problem is that I have no desire setting the United Republics Navy back about a decade to make that happen (the most valuable targets being the Cherys or the Union, both of which take about half a decade at least to go from laid to commissioned) and I don’t know where Mik stands on the same.

And if that did happen, Dyson’s Presidency is completely over and we see the Democrats take charge and radically shift Dormill and Stiura away from Federalism as fast as possible, that would be risking a revolt by the Republics and a civil war, again something I’m not interested in.

However, blending the two paths I set out would be interesting. Perhaps after Castillo Verde D&S decides to pull away, with the political situation growing out of its control. That could cause a chain reaction to organize a League Peacekeeping Force to be sent in the stead of our coalition, which the Javerians already see as a tool of the Mennans and their allies to justify their actions. This spurs anti-western sentiments and becomes the driving force for the communists and their allies to come in and offer a solution to remove the League and give San Javier the allies it needs to achieve stability.

Going off your first and last points I don't think you'd need to lose any real assets for a pullback. Perhaps me and Thuz could covertly supply SJ with more modern weapons a la USA and the Mujahideen in Afghanistan. Or the coalition takes seriously heavy casualties in a couple major battles in a row. This leads to greater losses for the coalition. You then add that on top of the joint Thuzbek/Dothraki navy charging full steam ahead at blockade with close to 40 warships, the war could suddenly look very bloody and very dangerous (in terms of a starting IW3) at the same time which I would imagine would get very unpopular and get a pullback pretty quick. (I also have some old TU-55 esque bombers that could carry cruise missiles as a threat but I feel like that starts IW3.)
Once the coalition leaves Thuzbekistan could try to implement a communist government. And seeing as the current SJ gov is pretty totalitarian and Dothrakia doesn't have any real issues with communism ideologically, Dothrakia wouldn't be opposed to a regime change. This would be a huge win for the new Anti-League League and would change the regional balance of power

[Balnik]

The only MacGuffin that would be on the table for the Communists is Balnik’s Falken Supersonic ASM. Using that to take out or force either my Navy or Mik’s to retreat away would give them enough space to make their move. The only problem is that I have no desire setting the United Republics Navy back about a decade to make that happen (the most valuable targets being the Cherys or the Union, both of which take about half a decade at least to go from laid to commissioned) and I don’t know where Mik stands on the same.

And if that did happen, Dyson’s Presidency is completely over and we see the Democrats take charge and radically shift Dormill and Stiura away from Federalism as fast as possible, that would be risking a revolt by the Republics and a civil war, again something I’m not interested in.

However, blending the two paths I set out would be interesting. Perhaps after Castillo Verde D&S decides to pull away, with the political situation growing out of its control. That could cause a chain reaction to organize a League Peacekeeping Force to be sent in the stead of our coalition, which the Javerians already see as a tool of the Mennans and their allies to justify their actions. This spurs anti-western sentiments and becomes the driving force for the communists and their allies to come in and offer a solution to remove the League and give San Javier the allies it needs to achieve stability.

MacGuffin wise I was thinking of chemical weapons.

I could supply. Balnik had witnessed prolific amount of chemical weapons in its horseshoe war. Whatever happens, should it be anti ship missiles, SAM''s, or even WMD''s (to an extent) I would be happy to be a catalyst.

Dothrakia has no issues with communists and is deploying a good chunk of its navy to San Javier? Seems like a good opportunity for Balnik to oppose itself on a certain southern neighbor.

[Thuzbekistan]

I'm down with supplying commies, not the drug cartels that govern the place. TIS is going to be funding the commies through AMI since we have no previous contact with this force. (If AM ever posts. Otherwise, sources on the island would have to be used.)

Again, sorry for not posting. Definitely will tomorrow or Saturday morning

[Dothrakia]

Dothrakia has no issues with communists and is deploying a good chunk of its navy to San Javier? Seems like a good opportunity for Balnik to oppose itself on a certain southern neighbor.

Well here goes IW 3. Good luck everybody

[Balnik]

Dothrakia has no issues with communists and is deploying a good chunk of its navy to San Javier? Seems like a good opportunity for Balnik to oppose itself on a certain southern neighbor.

Well here goes IW 3. Good luck everybody

Potentially. I suppose we will see.

[Menna Shuli]

Dothrakia has no issues with communists and is deploying a good chunk of its navy to San Javier? Seems like a good opportunity for Balnik to oppose itself on a certain southern neighbor.

Well here goes IW 3. Good luck everybody

I don't think so. But maybe.

So this is the course we're committed to, everyone? SJ democratized, which can lead to the communist uprising story some time in the future?

[Thuzbekistan]

Well here goes IW 3. Good luck everybody

I don't think so. But maybe.

So this is the course we're committed to, everyone? SJ democratized, which can lead to the communist uprising story some time in the future?

aye

[Dormill and Stiura]

Well here goes IW 3. Good luck everybody

I don't think so. But maybe.

So this is the course we're committed to, everyone? SJ democratized, which can lead to the communist uprising story some time in the future?

I concur.

[Wellsia]

D&S, I have a independent battalion of about 800 men headed toward Rio Pena, they can either get there first or try to take it from you.

[Thuzbekistan]

So, I am currently waiting on the following:

AM: I need two things:

I need to know whether you guys are going to contact mine as we have "reached out". I have assumed that AMI would have had previous contact with my guys as they were involved in Santa Ana as a minor force in the area which were ultimately driven back and left before the ultimate fall of the city. Contact can come in a variety of ways. However, I think the best would literally be mentioning it in a meeting of your AMI since you've chosen to start this RP from the viewpoint of the new head of the AMI. That would be best, IMO as well as reaching out to Thuzbek Intelligence Services and seeing if we are involved. We can develop a history between the agencies via TG as well to make this more plausible.

I was also wondering if you would be San Javier's "zealous advocate" in the league? Dothrakia could also do this. Once the naval encounter occurs, one of you would need to invite a delegation to speak or would have to have Serevei (Polar) invite a delegation to the League Chambers.

Neg/Suvurnia: Your catholic fighters would need to reach out to what is left of the communists in Guadalupano. If you're still down with that storyline, do tell.

Dorm/Mik: Once mik get's his post up, I will post about how my good Admiral responds to the situation. Dothrakia, once this occurs, we can talk about how your navy and mine either A) Cooperates and decides to call the bluff or B) if your commander decides to go about a more cautious approach while mine does the "damn the torpedoes, full steam ahead" kinda thing.

Wellsia: Any idea what your position on Thuzbek involvement would be?


As I have no dog in the fight on the ground, I have nothing to say about it.

[Negarakita]

Thuz, I'm still keen. I've just been swamped by school recently. Will post when more able to.

[Athara Magarat]

So, I am currently waiting on the following:

AM: I need two things:

I need to know whether you guys are going to contact mine as we have "reached out". I have assumed that AMI would have had previous contact with my guys as they were involved in Santa Ana as a minor force in the area which were ultimately driven back and left before the ultimate fall of the city. Contact can come in a variety of ways. However, I think the best would literally be mentioning it in a meeting of your AMI since you've chosen to start this RP from the viewpoint of the new head of the AMI. That would be best, IMO as well as reaching out to Thuzbek Intelligence Services and seeing if we are involved. We can develop a history between the agencies via TG as well to make this more plausible.

I was also wondering if you would be San Javier's "zealous advocate" in the league? Dothrakia could also do this. Once the naval encounter occurs, one of you would need to invite a delegation to speak or would have to have Serevei (Polar) invite a delegation to the League Chambers.

Neg/Suvurnia: Your catholic fighters would need to reach out to what is left of the communists in Guadalupano. If you're still down with that storyline, do tell.

Dorm/Mik: Once mik get's his post up, I will post about how my good Admiral responds to the situation. Dothrakia, once this occurs, we can talk about how your navy and mine either A) Cooperates and decides to call the bluff or B) if your commander decides to go about a more cautious approach while mine does the "damn the torpedoes, full steam ahead" kinda thing.

Wellsia: Any idea what your position on Thuzbek involvement would be?


As I have no dog in the fight on the ground, I have nothing to say about it.

I agree with this. I will mention the contact in my post about an AMI meeting.

For two, I am sorry actually. The Magarati public does not want to take any side. I am also getting tired of being this odd man in the League. You will need someone far more diplomatic than me.

Edit: What about Blakenham? He/She was pretty intersted in the RMB about opposing Menna and DS diplomatically.

[Wellsia]

Thuzbekistan, officially Wellsia is against the military actions taking place in and around San Javier, unofficially, a crack brigade of regulars volunteered to assist the Javerians against the invasion by the Menna and their allies. The arrival of the joint Thuzbeki and Dothraki fleets is looked upon as a good thing and as a neutral, Wellsia will allow ships form all involved to set in at Wellsian ports for refueling and minor repairs, so long as they leave within the given 48 hours. Wellsian ships will insure that there is no conflict with Wellsian territorial waters. Any disruption to the Coalition forces attacking San Javier is a help to the 'volunteers' there.

[Thuzbekistan]

There will be a post tomorrow or Saturday. Like I've said before, just been really busy and keep coming home too tired or stressed to write.

[Menna Shuli]

I've got a few posts in the pipeline as well. One to close up the Bellringers thing and one to readjust focus to the main battle. I don't want to linger too much longer on Pueblo Ignacio. It's a smart move, I think, to start expanding the scope a bit.