As the Poppies Bloom (TWI ONLY | OOC)

[Thuzbekistan]

Essentially, we plan to show up and call other nations to the cause, then land troops in the north to stop the invasion.

Speaking of which, how would one get in contact with the Javerian government, Menna

[Miklania]

You are actually deploying ground forces to the island? What's going to happen when they meet ours?

The response to your fleet moving towards San Javier will be to deploy the Stormkeeper battle group and every other ship and boat in 3rd Fleet to run interference.

Which would lead to what? You firing on our ships? If you did that, you would be starting a war. Our stated intentions would be to stop the invasion of San Javier.

As for meeting miklanian troops, our roe would be to not fire until fired upon. We would be placing ourselves in between menna's forces and the capital and basically say "stop. Come to the negotiating table. But advance no further."

If you guys fired on mine or took action, well. There would be a fight.

There are things one can do to make it clear that they are not welcome. Aircraft can buzz the fleet, a line of ships blocking the route can be made, and submarines can make themselves known, at least a little bit. Diplomatic overtures would be made at the same time, as would radio messages, making the meaning of the incidents clear. We can also declare a maritime exclusion zone around San Javier, essentially making any movement we don't approve of near the island illegal.

You can sail on and call the bluff, but that could get dangerous really quickly. Your force would be outnumbered, and surrounded by Miklanians to the south and "Doraltic" forces to the north. Any task force commander would be feeling very vulnerable with his line of retreat constrained to a somewhat friendly foreign country (AM). A prudent task force commander would be inclined to avoid unnecessary escalation and is unlikely to directly call the bluff without a clear indication that it is, in fact, a bluff; or unless we shoot first, giving him the excuse he needs to act aggressively enough to offset his disadvantageous position. A less prudent commander may damn the torpedoes and throw down the gauntlet. It would be opening a can of worms for us and you'd be up the creek without a paddle. And then the balloon goes up. (I'll stop with the idioms)

That action could lead to a variety of situations.

Case A) Miklanian surface vessels string out to block the northern approaches to San Javier before you arrive. (Distance between main forces is being measured in hundreds of miles.) A Thuzbek submarine probes the line, looking for gaps the group could slip through without getting into a close encounter with a Miklanian or D&S warship. It accidentally stumbles upon Stormkeeper. It gets detected by a frigate, which freaks out that a submarine is right next to the carrier, and a game of high stakes cat and mouse begins. The frigate drives the submarine away to the north. From the position of the frigate, the Thuzbek submarine is a super dangerous sea monster that came that close to being able to blow away the carrier. They feel like the underdogs, a small sheep dog keeping a wolf away from its flock. They employ every tool in the box to keep track of the sub. Picture the way you would hold a venomous snake that you had caught. How do you let go of it? The submarine, however, sees themselves as the underdogs. It might be an older model, and the frigate is one of our newer ones. They feel like the underdog, a hare being hounded. The frigate's aggressive pushing, intended to make sure they don't lose track of this dangerous thing, is a hellish nightmare to them. Loss of their only defense, stealth, for an extended period of time compounded by constant sonar thrashing drives them into a near-panic. They do but at the same time don't understand the frigate's motivation to defend it's carrier (and itself). They call for help from the fleet and do everything in their power to escape. It's not seen as escape by the frigate, it's seen as an attempt to gain the advantage and go back on the attack. They continue their pursuit. Thuzbek fleet ship and aircraft come to their comrade's rescue, and drive away the frigate with aggressive low altitude passes and maybe warning shots. From here things can either continue to escalate to the point where one side misjudges something big and opens fire, or it can provide an opening to start talking more and de-escalate.

Case B) The commander of the Thuzbek force is more "damn the torpedoes" sort of man than the above commander. He decides to call the bluff and steams right on through towards the blocking line. The ships composing it are taken aback. They are instructed to under no circumstances fire on the enemy. They pull back and make a second, more compact line further south. Carrier aircraft from the Miklanian CV track the Thuzbek fleet and attempt to make shows of force. The day before they will make it to the line, the CV launches a pair of fighters that make a daring low-level approach towards the Thuzbek fleet, sneak around the outer pickets, and then race at high speed, wave top level, towards the flagship. They make a mock attack run, releasing flares. The sudden pop-up of fast moving contacts on the radar scope scares the bejeebus out of them. They race to bring defenses to bear, but their reaction time isn't fast enough to have stopped the fighters before they could have released weapons and killed them all. (No one shoots each other.) The commander is rightly incensed at the brazen act. The Miklanian intention would be to send the message that they could destroy the Thuzbek forces if they wanted to. It is interpreted that way, but as a more direct threat than intended. The Thuzbek force steams on undeterred. The fighters repeat the move the following day, trying to get the Thuzbek force to turn away before they reach the surface ships. This time, the defenses are prepared in advance, and they shoot down one of the Banshees as it makes it's mock run. The pilot is killed and the backseater badly wounded before he ejects and is retrieved. Miklanian and D&S surface ships are pissed off and clear for action. An armed standoff ensues. Thuzbek and Miklanian/D&S/Mennan political leaders are extremely unhappy with their respective forces, but back their actions diplomatically, not willing to give an opening that the other could use to cast them as the bad guys. The aviator is returned as a gesture of good will, but there is little goodwill when his comrades see the extent of his injuries. The situation could easily spiral out of control as both sides attempts at brinkmanship fail, or they could separate and continue to have a tense standoff until a political agreement is reached. That would most likely be the allowance of Thuzbek material "humanitarian aid" support to the communist rebels poor peaceful victims of the imperialist war machine, but no troops or weapons. Some of the medicines just happen to be in novelty "bullet pill" form.

[Miklania]

I'm really strongly opposed to the open deployment of Thuzbek forces to stop the invasion. Miklanian and Doraltic forces are already part of the invasion, they are arriving at the moment, and will have boots on the ground days before you do, so that means that you would be the one openly declaring war on us. It would be like the Soviets deploying their army to Vietnam, or NATO counter-invading Afghanistan. It just isn't done. Realizing that they are too late to step in like that, the Thuzbeks should feel salty for a while, then try to raise a geopolitical stink and secretly send aid to the communist forces in-country, they way the Soviets actually did in Vietnam and the US actually did in Afghanistan.

As for our motivations, they are 100% realpolitik. We tried to stop it, but it was going to happen anyway, and we feel guilty for our part in it, so now we want to make sure that it's over as quickly and painlessly as it can.

[Thuzbekistan]

I like both of these. My commanders would definitely take case B, but as for the result of backing down to aid only, we couldnt do that. We would call upon other allies (dothrakia has talked about joining in, but I havmt heard from him since the newspost) and take it to the league, demanding the invasion be stopped.

All the while, our ships are armed and ready. It would make for some interesting diplomacy and give the credit to thuzbekistan as well for being there to actually keep the peace and stop the war while more "western" nations were invading based on allegations. It would also be a good case for the thuzbeks to join the league so as to eliminate the possibility of this happening again without clear avenues of diplomatic deescalation.

We would ultimately argue that the invasion needs to end immediately in a white peace with league peace keepers deployed to ensure that a ceasefire is in place.

[Thuzbekistan]

I'm really strongly opposed to the open deployment of Thuzbek forces to stop the invasion. Miklanian and Doraltic forces are already part of the invasion, they are arriving at the moment, and will have boots on the ground days before you do, so that means that you would be the one openly declaring war on us. It would be like the Soviets deploying their army to Vietnam, or NATO counter-invading Afghanistan. It just isn't done. Realizing that they are too late to step in like that, the Thuzbeks should feel salty for a while, then try to raise a geopolitical stink and secretly send aid to the communist forces in-country, they way the Soviets actually did in Vietnam and the US actually did in Afghanistan.

As for our motivations, they are 100% realpolitik. We tried to stop it, but it was going to happen anyway, and we feel guilty for our part in it, so now we want to make sure that it's over as quickly and painlessly as it can.

With the plan I stated above, no ground troops would be deployed.

[Miklania]

We could cast it as a race, the first one to get there and actually start fighting would be the one that gets to stay, as the other side would then be seen to be fighting on the opposite side of the same battlefield, effectively at war as far as anyone else is concerned. Recognizing this, both sides ruch to get their boots on the ground first.

[Dormill and Stiura]

I'm all for Case B when it comes to how this whole naval standoff will go. Most of the Doraltic commanders in the Union battlegroup had already dealt with the potential of the Thuzbek Navy nipping at its heels last year, so they would be eager to return the favor and nip at the heels of the Central Fleet. But without a much larger naval force, nobody is going to be entirely willing to escalate this further than it already has been, Dormill and Stiura has an image it would like to try and restore over the next year.

[Thuzbekistan]

That would make the naval interference make a lot more sense, as well. I'm for this plan.

[Dormill and Stiura]

We could cast it as a race, the first one to get there and actually start fighting would be the one that gets to stay, as the other side would then be seen to be fighting on the opposite side of the same battlefield, effectively at war as far as anyone else is concerned. Recognizing this, both sides ruch to get their boots on the ground first.

And unfortunately for Thuzbekistan, planes fly faster than ships can sail

[Miklania]

I'm amenable to that. The broader geopolitical connections are interesting.

D&S I'm willing to take the lead and thus the blame for the incident. You're people are concerned about the optics; in typical Miklanian fashion we could give a rat's left buttcheek what other people think. (That is until stuff goes really sideways.) And we like being in charge. And we have the bigger boat.

[Thuzbekistan]

I'm amenable to that. The broader geopolitical connections are interesting.

D&S I'm willing to take the lead and thus the blame for the incident. You're people are concerned about the optics; in typical Miklanian fashion we could give a rat's left buttcheek what other people think. (That is until stuff goes really sideways.) And we like being in charge. And we have the bigger boat.

Pretty much. All ago then?

[Miklania]

I'd wait for Menna to give some input before we totally hijack his thread for our own purposes.

[Dormill and Stiura]

I'm amenable to that. The broader geopolitical connections are interesting.

D&S I'm willing to take the lead and thus the blame for the incident. You're people are concerned about the optics; in typical Miklanian fashion we could give a rat's left buttcheek what other people think. (That is until stuff goes really sideways.) And we like being in charge. And we have the bigger boat.

For as much as some commanders would chafe under that idea, it would be for their benefit to allow Miklania to take whatever fall that comes from this.

Pretty much. All ago then?

All good from me. I'll see what Menna has to say to be certain.

[Menna Shuli]

Woah. Lots to try and unpack here. So...

Dorm, Agustin is a walled town that operates as the home base of the Anliana Cartel. I always pictured it being a series of rocky bluffs and cliffs jutting out of the jungle, with the main holdout at the top and poorer favella-style buildings spilling down the bluffs at steep angles. Picture if the rock of Christ the Redeemer at Rio de Janeiro was covered in buildings. Not much in the way of air defense, but heavily armed on the ground.

Thuz, contacting the government would be the same as contacting any government. Official channels and whatnot. What specifically do you need to know?

I kind of got lost in all the naval discussion. What do you need my opinion on?

[Thuzbekistan]

Suggested post sequence on the naval front would be as follows:
1. Doraltic shipscome in contact with Thuzbek, begin interfering, couple of follow ups and decision post.
2. Thuzbek ships keep sailing, dorm keeps annoying us. Then we run into Miklanian ships. See the line, try to barrel through. The encounter continues.

Menna if I'm not deploying troops, no need to contact them long run.

[Dormill and Stiura]

Woah. Lots to try and unpack here. So...

Dorm, Agustin is a walled town that operates as the home base of the Anliana Cartel. I always pictured it being a series of rocky bluffs and cliffs jutting out of the jungle, with the main holdout at the top and poorer favella-style buildings spilling down the bluffs at steep angles. Picture if the rock of Christ the Redeemer at Rio de Janeiro was covered in buildings. Not much in the way of air defense, but heavily armed on the ground.

I kind of got lost in all the naval discussion. What do you need my opinion on?

1) That'll be a fun fight to have. I'll get to writing as soon as possible.

2) Just to be sure you're alright with what's going to happen between the Miklanian, Doraltic, and Thuzbek navies around San Javier.

Suggested post sequence on the naval front would be as follows:
1. Doraltic ships come in contact with Thuzbek, begin interfering, couple of follow ups and decision post.
2. Thuzbek ships keep sailing, dorm keeps annoying us. Then we run into Miklanian ships. See the line, try to barrel through. The encounter continues.

Menna if I'm not deploying troops, no need to contact them long run.

Well the Union and her group sailed west and will arrive at San Javier from the north, the second group of the Coastal Assault Squadron, led by the Cruiser Dufor Hill sailed east for Swaneeak. So yeah my ships can and will shadow yours but it won't be the Union, just to be sure you know.

[Menna Shuli]

MS doesn't have a fit enough horse to run the race you guys are putting on, so feel free to do what you find most interesting. If this conflict spirals into an IW3, I'm cool with it. If not, still cool with it. I'm always open for MS and the Coral Sea to be a front for a more expansive conflict.

[Thuzbekistan]

MS doesn't have a fit enough horse to run the race you guys are putting on, so feel free to do what you find most interesting. If this conflict spirals into an IW3, I'm cool with it. If not, still cool with it. I'm always open for MS and the Coral Sea to be a front for a more expansive conflict.

Looks like we wont be going that way today. But perhaps someday.

[Dormill and Stiura]

MS doesn't have a fit enough horse to run the race you guys are putting on, so feel free to do what you find most interesting. If this conflict spirals into an IW3, I'm cool with it. If not, still cool with it. I'm always open for MS and the Coral Sea to be a front for a more expansive conflict.

Looks like we wont be going that way today. But perhaps someday.

Yeah I wanted this to be a more small scale situation but I suppose some amount of escalation will be interesting. I don't expect to be planning for IW3 until later this year at the least.

[Miklania]

Thuz I think you need more expeditionary capabilities if you are going to be doing this sort of thing in the future. I'll slap together a quote for more, modern airlifters and some amphibious ships.

[Thuzbekistan]

Thuz I think you need more expeditionary capabilities if you are going to be doing this sort of thing in the future. I'll slap together a quote for more, modern airlifters and some amphibious ships.

Ok. Ty

[Wellsia]

How soon we are forgotten, Wellsia is the closest nation to San Javier, and you are operating on the coast closes to my bases and airfields, not to mention Milklania has to sail pass Wellsia to get to San Javier.

[Dormill and Stiura]

How soon we are forgotten, Wellsia is the closest nation to San Javier, and you are operating on the coast closes to my bases and airfields, not to mention Milklania has to sail pass Wellsia to get to San Javier.

You seem to have forgotten about the Miklanian Third Fleet based (likely) out of Corindia.

[Menna Shuli]

Mik, when will you be in contact with my command?

[Miklania]

How soon we are forgotten, Wellsia is the closest nation to San Javier, and you are operating on the coast closes to my bases and airfields, not to mention Milklania has to sail pass Wellsia to get to San Javier.

Are you helping overtly or are you sending troops secretly? I was under the impression that your aid would be secret.