www.News-Herald.et.comSecond Midterm Election Final
Free Democrats, Socialists Gain in Ghastak:
75 Districts Head to Dashez Runoffs, Center Looks StrongFinal results of the November 27th midterm legislative elections have been released today, with the Socialists and Free Democrats advancing by one Ghastaker each, and the far right National Democrats continuing their erosion in the Dashez, falling to eighteen seats from their present twenty four. The Ghastak tally is as follows:
Party (Current Ghastak/Incoming Ghastak)Communist (Co) 5/ 4
Socialist (SP) 9/ 10
Free Democrat (FDP) 14/ 15
Civic Platform (Ci) 6/ 5
National Democrat (NDP) 1/ 1
Dashez results are as follows:
Districts not requiring runoff:• Communist 12
• Socialist 44
• Free Democrat 219
• Civic Platform 41
• National Democrat 18
Districts requiring a runoff between the two top contenders have these matchups:• Communist vs. Socialst 3
• Communist vs. Free Democrat 6
• Communist vs. Civic Platform 2
• Socialist vs. Free Democrat 30
• Socialist vs. Civic Platform 34
The above results have just been certified by the Office of the Elections Magistrate in Vladarsik, and countersigned by the Chief Justice of the Administrative Court of Referred Appeals. At the conference where the certification was announced, the Manager of the Office of the Elections Magistrate, Sam Kully indicated problems traced to faulty software from Biden & Harris were red flagged for a delay in results from the frontier territories, a view that was seconded by Referred Appeals Chief Justice Janet Shwab. Voter participation in this year’s midterm as a percentage of eligible voters by territory is presented here:
Coastal Territories• Dobrovice 81%
• Warren 84%
• Sitary 72%
Central Corridor Territories• West Payson 88%
• East Payson 89%
• Macomb 71%
• Chillicothe 89%
• North Chillicothe 91%
• Strakonice 85%
• Methil 83%
Frontier Territories• Caldwell 72%
• Virden 80%
Southern Territories• Leonore 94%
• Pavanka 82%
Domestic Issues Drive Ghastak ContestThe foremost bone of contention in this year’s Ghastak race has turned out to be that of the soil conservation policies of the Shrdlu administration. This has been a hotly contested issue for rural voters in the Central Corridor territories. As true for the continental grain belt, the value of barley vs. wheat cultivation is important in Eitoan, with the Shrdlu Department of Agriculture seen as largely favoring the latter, given it’s usual superior position in price per ton. Throughout the campaign the Free Democrats endured sniping from both the Socialists and Civic Platform, responding mostly that conservation efforts are directed by the territorial government. The Free Democrats had been seen as successfully downplaying the issue, but the effort was partially successful. Although rural disaffection did not result in a loss for the Free Democrats, Socialist gains in the more remote Central Corridor territories at the national level. Civic Platform, by contrast, did not benefit from it’s criticism of the administration, and was possibly damaged by defection of wheat growers to the Free Democrats. Evan Schreiber, President of the National Barley Production and Marketing Conference told The News Herald in October “We’re a little disappointed by Civic Platform candidates for Ghastak this year. I’d spoken with party leaders and was hoping for a more aggressive approach to hydrological and conservation equity, but have heard very little so far”. That sentiment was one factor in the fall of the Civic Platform share of the Ghastak vote to third place in Chillicothe and Strakonice territories in this year’s polling.
The proposed reclassification of alcoholic beverages was also an important issue nationwide this year. Since the bill in the Dashez for revision to the 2003 Beverage Classification Guidelines to reduce the percentage of alcohol by volume that defines Class A beverages from 30 proof to 10 proof presented in May has stalled there in the lower house, it has received significant attention throughout the campaign. Leading Eitoan distillers have boosted the bill, along with upscale grocers and the hospitality industry. Support for the initiative picked up steam among Civic Platform Governors General, and later by Civic Platform Ghastakers. Although the party did not make a specific endorsement of the reclassification, it had come to be associated with it and may have been a factor in it’s disappointing performance this year. It was viewed unfavorably among housewives, and blue collar voters. Given this year’s weakness of the Communists at the national level, the advantage went to the Socialists in picking up voters that had strong opinions on the issue.
Foreign policy did not track as a major issue this year. Although the Shrdlu adminstrations “walk back” of talk about Federal Ralkovian membership in the Northwest Mutual Assistance Agreement two weeks ago was liable to bring charges of bowing to Golden Throne interests, most voters shrugged off any consideration of the policy correction. The Department of Foreign Affairs went silent about such initiatives after a discussion between high ranking military and Foreign Affairs policymakers. Most in Vladarsik, and reflected in public opinion did not see a connection between recent comments from Fedala and the trenchback, but rather reassertion of the military viewpoint, especially in the Navy that cooperation with The Golden Throne is of primary importance. That strongly held attitude was reflected by The Ghastak Chair Louis Herb’s crack after the meeting “It all seems perfectly above board. Oh, and Secretary Field may want to be sure he still has both testicles.” Chairman Herb’s staff tried frantically to soften that remark for a week. Business interests are also seen as playing a role in the policy reconsideration, given the growing integration between Golden Throne and Eitoan finance.
Local issues, although not significant in the overall Ghastak polling were seen to have an impact in several urban areas. Of particular importance in the Communist loss were budgeting overruns in Dolton, and the transit construction delay and scandal in Stickney.
The Analytics Behind This Years Ghastak RoundThe Classical Theory of Midterm Elections postulates that “Free Democrat administrations operate centripetally, while Socialist or Civic Platform administrations operate centrifugally” at the national level, where Ghastakers are chosen by party list under proportional representation in the at-large upper house. This year’s results bear that out: the Communists lost a seat, and the National Democrats failed to score. Two years ago, in the minor round, the National Democrats gained their only Ghastak seat, now seen as an aberration. In this year’s election, the centrist parties dominated, as expected under the consolidating influence of a Free Democrat administration. When Socialists or Civic Platform presidents are in office, the debate at the national level turns more divisive, benefiting parties at both extremes.
The last pre-election poll from the News-Herald’s Opinion Polling and Analysis Department reflects this rule across the board among all segments of the electorate. By income level, leftist parties scored best in the lower quartile, with the Communists at 15% and Socialists at 56%. The Free Democrats captured 24% of the lower income, leaving the Civic Platform and National Democrats with 4 and 1 percent respectively. Among the second and third quartiles, the Free Democrats and Civic Platform performed better than expected, the Free Democrats capturing half of the vote, Civic Platform with 1 out of 10. Socialists won 30% of the middle income, Communists won 7%, and National Democrats 3%. The top quartile returned predictable results for center and right parties, with Free Democrats at 55%, Civic Platform at 12%, and National Democrats 3%. Among top earners 25% voted Socialist and 4% Communist.
Selection by religious preference followed predictable patterns. Voters identifying as secular, representing around two thirds of the electorate gave 44% to the Socialists, 38% to the Free Democrats, 11% to the Communists, 6% to Civic Platform, leaving 1% to the National Democrats. This year’s classification included the miniscule Christian community, which accounts for under 2% of Eitoans, with all branches of Judaism for a component of about a quarter of those going to the polls. The Jewish and Christian group went heavily for the Free Democrats at 55% followed by 31% for the Socialists. Civic Platform won 9%, while the Communists got 7% and National Democrats 5%. The remainder, Camalgehy and Rozhroz, with 10% of the vote came in at 16% Communist, 42% Socialist, 38% Free Democrat, and 4% Civic Platform. No tally was detected for the National Democrats, a party with a legacy of persecution of those ancient tribal beliefs.
The ethnic breakdown of the vote also continued traditional expectations. Among the Mestizo/Gemesht, accounting for 85% of Eitoans, the contest was between the Free Democrats who edged out the Socialists 42% to 40%, with the Communists and Civic Platform at 8% each and National Democrats trailing with 2%. This demographic, the overwhelming majority of Eitoans has always been the driver in national elections. The 10% identifying as Indigine Eitoans was similar, where the Free Democrats led the Socialists 38% to 34% and Communists siphoning off 24%. Civic Platform collected the remaining 4%, and none were found supporting the National Democrats, here too suffering from a legacy of persecution and discrimination. 5% of voters identify as Ralkoviak, and among them the breakdown reflected national trends with the Free Democrats leading the Socialists 43% to 35%. Civic Platform polled 12% among Ralkoviaks, evidence of further defections among them from the National Democrats, who won 7%. 3% of Ralkoviaks voted Communist.
New Faces in the GhastakMark Eder, 67 ascends to the Ghastak for the Free Democrats, coming out of retirement from his stint as CEO of AG Fadrav, the leading consumer goods conglomerate. Long a fixture in Free Democrat politics in Kelso and in the financial community, he has been an advisor to President Shrdlu since the presidential transition. A golf partner of Secretary of Industry and Trade Loren Masters, Mr. Eder is expected to work behind the scenes in shaping tax and regulatory policy, and guiding it through both chambers of the legislature.
Also joining the Free Democrat bench is David Perry, Governor General of North Chillicothe Territory. He is replacing Jon Foster, who is retiring after two terms. Governor General Perry, 41, had a brief run for President in the last election, bowing out when Mr. Shrdlu’s nomination became an fait accompli. He is expected to influence the party and the Shrdlu administration in a more liberal direction. He will be succeeded in North Chillicothe by Chairman of the Territorial Dashez Kerry Rhodes, from Civic Platform.
Bradley Harlow joins the Ghastak ranks of the Socialists. The 63 year old leaves his job as Board Chairman of Smigly Platinum Mining and Materials as the “Platinum Pinko”, playing against type to advocate for stronger union rights and higher public spending for education and social welfare. Throughout the campaign the Socialists showcased his bubbly personality, and wielded his appearances as a weapon to assure middle income voters that the party remains far from the “wild man” image warned by the right. His genial in-person campaigning In major urban areas is credited with blunting Communist gains this year.
Free Democrats Maintain Majority in Dashez, Runoffs Promising for President’s PartyAt the end of polling in all 409 districts for the lower house, President Shrdlu’s Free Democrats have kept their majority with 219 seats confirmed. Their prospects in the 36 runoff contests on December 18th, all facing leftist opponents look good for them to exceed their current 234 seat majority. The Free Democrats dominated once again in all regions, including the usually turbulent south. The Socialists came through this election in relatively good shape, capturing 44 seats and a contender in 67 runoffs, mostly against parties to their right. Civic Platform retains 41 of it’s current 65 seats, but the outlook is good for them to win in much of the next round against Socialists and Communists.
Indicative of the Free Democrat strength is the result in District 250, anchored in Marengo, on Burgess River. Here Free Democrat Michael Mortensen, owner of a plating company ousted two term Civic Platform incumbent James Lisek by 52% to 34%. Socialist Radek Boxleitner, mayor of Marengo polled 11% with Communist Jennifer Secor, a criminal defense attorney having the remaining 3%. The National Democrats failed to procure a candidate in this year’s race. Mr. Mortensen was a strong supporter of President Shrdlu’s “New Nationalism”, a more muscular approach to containment of threats from Regime Ralkovia, while Mayor Boxleitner and Dasheznik Lisek were viewed widely in the district as more wobbly. The campaign made Mr. Mortensen popular among veterans and local fraternal organizations. The campaign was gentlemanly, as usual, with all opponents conceding within the hour of the announced vote total and wishing him well in Vladarsik.
As in the Ghastak, the losers in the Dashez contest were the two extremes. The Communists, currently at 28 seats won 12 seats outright and will face off opponents in 11 districts in December. The National Democrats kept 18 of their current 24 seats, and will not proceed to any runoff matches. This is indicative if the party’s decline at the national level.
In the upcoming vote for the 75 seats to be decided the richest trove of opportunities are the 34 districts offering the choice between Civic Platform and Socialists. The contests are entirely in the ten largest cities, largely in constituencies that house predominantly secular voters. Here Civic Platform is running candidates taking a muted approach to social issues such as alcoholic beverage reclassification and secondary education technical curriculum reform, and are instead emphasizing their support for tax and regulatory changes boosting economic growth and employment. Taking a reciprocal approach, the Socialists have stifled calls for traffic constriction in favor of bicycling and mass transit, and their noisy vegetarian component, and pointed out their record of support for stronger workplace safety protections. Civic Platform heads into the runoffs leading in 20 districts, and is showing strength among workers in the technology sector. A strong showing here for Civic Platform could trigger moves within the party toward a more liberal approach to social issues.
The Free Democrats are ahead of their Socialist opponents in 20 of the 30 districts where they face off in December. The districts are scattered across all regions, and evenly divided among urban, suburban, and small town/rural settings. Socialist candidates are expected to do well in barley growing areas and blue collar towns and neighborhoods, but support for the Free Democrats is seen among other population segments.
The Communists face scattered opposition where they enter the next round, all in Kelson and Berwyn, the nation’s top two cities respectively. They are seen as having the advantage in all 11. The six Kelso districts where they contend with Free Democrat opponents represent low income blue collar constituencies, where parties to the right of the Socialist have had a poor track record. The three Berwyn seats where they face Socialists are middle income, lately gentrified, with an increasingly young and college educated demographic. Observers in Berwyn view this as a test of militant Communist strength among the new residents as opposed to fealty to environmental and social issues favored by the Socialists. The remaining two districts, both in Kelso are flukes of gerrymandering, causing acrimonious campaigning between the Communists and Civic Platform among the hodgepodge of rich and dirt poor voters. The city’s two leading news sources have typically slanted their coverage in the two contests, with commentary in the left leaning Kelso Times and staunchly conservative Kelso Daily Register escalating into hourly mud slinging between the news organizations.
ImplicationsThe results leaving the Free Democrats with an increased plurality in the Ghastak and likely to increase their Dashez majority indicate a free hand for the Shrdlu administration in pursuing domestic initiatives. In reading the tea leaves, the administration seems likely to let alcoholic beverage reclassification die a natural death in it’s infancy in the Legislature. This would be a bow to parental sentiment, which has been a large impediment to the proposal. Given the erosion of the left in the Dashez, the administration will have a free hand in sterner enforcement of laws against secondary boycotts in labor disputes. This should please business concerns that have been impacted, and will attract Civic Platform support. On the other side of the coin, the Socialist advance in the upper house will give encouragement to shifting of soil conservation funds toward barley growing districts. The president’s centrist Free Democrats strong position there make it easier for them to pick up votes as needed from either Civic Platform or the Socialists for agenda items. Education Secretary Steven Power’s proposal for secondary education technical training reform should find smooth sailing in both houses, given Free Democrat strength and it’s enthusiastic support from Civic Platform.
The economic implications of this election are twofold. The Shrdlu administration’s moves toward prudent, cautious tax reduction are likely to continue. This is a boon for small business, and bring stability and optimism to corporate budgeting. Fears of a tilt toward large companies sparking a consumer backlash, expressed in hushed tones among the Kelso financial district’s analysts should be quieted as a result of the midterms. Continuance of this approach is likely to be smiled upon by the National Reserve Bank of Eitoan. The results give a free hand to the administration’s aggressive protection of intellectual property rights, popular in the tech sector, and stabilization of electrical rates in Central Corridor territories. Both policies are seen as encouraging of mild growth, with very little collateral inflation.
Foreign Policy ImpactThe results bode no change for Eitoan military policy. Eitoan will maintain superiority to any land force on the continent. This has been the bedrock of the Shrdlu administration since the end of the Ralkovian War, and has not been challenged seriously either in the legislature or public debate. The issue of naval appropriations will be subject to give and take with Ghastak Socialists, but this has been the expectation all along. The greater issue of foreign policy, that of Eitoan’s role in the bigger sphere of Greater Dienstad remains in the court of Foreign Affairs and academia and Vladarsik think tanks. Although clearly the whip hand in Federal Ralkovia, and doing the heavy lifting of restraining Regime Ralkovia, secondary concerns regarding Golden Throne requests have entered the picture, and have not risen to the surface in either house. President Shrdlu can depend on the solid backing of his Free Democrats there, and Civic Platform Ghastakers led by former Vice-President Kenneth Haan, an early proponent of closer ties with Fedala to give him support in his approach to continental defense. Lurking in the background, however, is the question whether Eitoan is prepared to go the distance in guidance of Federal Ralkovia, as opposed to greater autonomy for that occupied state. Some in Fedala have indicated reluctance to any tightening of the reins on the Federation of Ralkovian States. The question of the cost to Eitoan taxpayers of maintain a tight grip on occupied Ralkovia could provide an opening for Socialists and Communists in the Legislature may find an opening to criticize the Shrdlu administration if it decides to slow walk Federal Ralkovian autonomy.