Smoke on the water (OOC)

[Etoile Arcture]

OOC thread for Smoke on the water

[Lord Sumguy]

Am I correct in thinking that the IC thread is open?

[Etoile Arcture]

Yep, thread's now open LS.

[Yafor 2]

Currently in a debate tournament in Iowa (actually posting from the cafeteria, I love when schools have WiFi). Post when I get back (probably post on Tuesday or Wednesday).

Lest anyone think this is some kind of all-Novan-nations-band-together, the Grand Democratic Duchy is explicitly against the notion of war and will make said declaration very clear when I have time to post.

~Yaf'

[Romandeos]

Currently in a debate tournament in Iowa (actually posting from the cafeteria, I love when schools have WiFi). Post when I get back (probably post on Tuesday or Wednesday).

Lest anyone think this is some kind of all-Novan-nations-band-together, the Grand Democratic Duchy is explicitly against the notion of war and will make said declaration very clear when I have time to post.

~Yaf'

Hey, you're in my home State. Neat.

Romandeos favors a just war, and will stand with the League despite having no membership therein, to the point of committing soldiers and anything else needed.

Disadvantageous peace is worse than a war, if you want my opinion.

[Allemande]

Since Griffincrest RP's being the world's foremost oil producer, I'm going to start a parallel thread in which people post or pontificate IC on the expected impact of this military action on oil markets and international trade world-wide. Note that even if BC completely capitulates, there will be a massive impact (contracts cannot be renegotiated overnight and nationalization - should it occur on a local basis, as it certainly will in some places - will certainly result in production stoppages and price spikes).

Just a heads-up.

[Akimonad]

Since Griffincrest RP's being the world's foremost oil producer,

Whether that's true or not is up for serious debate. There's millions of other nations the could probably match GC's output.

I'm going to start a parallel thread in which people post or pontificate IC on the expected impact of this military action on oil markets and international trade world-wide. Note that even if BC completely capitulates, there will be a massive impact (contracts cannot be renegotiated overnight and nationalization - should it occur on a local basis, as it certainly will in some places - will certainly result in production stoppages and price spikes).

I honestly doubt the impact will be that large. Those who (foolishly) chose to have GC supply all their oil will feel the hurt, but, well, they were asking for it to begin with.

[Etoile Arcture]

There are nations striking oil every week and the market in the global economics forum is pretty healthy, so I find it hard to see how this impacts the wider international community (excepting those with exclusive supply agreements with GC, and that's hardly the whole world). Of course, you're free to explore the larger political ramifications and speculate on the response to the ultimatum.

[Allemande]

Aren't wars without consequences rather ... odd?

[New Manth]

Do you equate "Griffincrest is not the only fish in the (oil) sea" with "wars without consequences"?

Also, thread tagged. Having just tried the subscription feature for keeping an eye on it, my conclusion is that subscribing is a pain in the ass.

[Allemande]

Only if you equate "Griffincrest is not the only fish in the (oil) sea" with "wars without consequences"

Not necessarily. But I'll be TGing a few other large oil producing states before I start the thread, just to get their input and involvement.

[New Chalcedon]

Since Griffincrest RP's being the world's foremost oil producer,

Whether that's true or not is up for serious debate. There's millions of other nations the could probably match GC's output.

I'm going to start a parallel thread in which people post or pontificate IC on the expected impact of this military action on oil markets and international trade world-wide. Note that even if BC completely capitulates, there will be a massive impact (contracts cannot be renegotiated overnight and nationalization - should it occur on a local basis, as it certainly will in some places - will certainly result in production stoppages and price spikes).

I honestly doubt the impact will be that large. Those who (foolishly) chose to have GC supply all their oil will feel the hurt, but, well, they were asking for it to begin with.

Actually, Akimonad, you're wrong on this one. Oil is a fungible commodity; that is, it can be bought and sold to anyone around the globe. Meaning that the market for oil is truly a global one. Meaning, in turn, that a severe disturbance will result in a spike (at least) in the price of oil.

Consider - the USA imports most of its oil from Canada, *not* the Middle East. Yet one nation in the ME (Saudi Arabia) can spike the prices of oil the world around ,not just for its regular customers. Why? Because if it cuts supply, the competition for the (reduced) world supply becomes more intense, and prices rise.

I support action against BC, but one of the consequences is very likely to be a severe rise in oil prices, win or lose.

P.S. No, I doubt that many nations *can* match BC's output. Given the vast number of sources he's.....um, "commandeered", he is probably the single largest oil producer on II.

[Katonazag]

It comes down to the question of whether you can count the nations which he claims to collect oil from that are no longer active or in existence or not. I saw a source somewhere in another thread that claimed that of his list, only 5 or so actually still exist. I have not taken the time as of yet to substantiate that person's claim with my own investigation, but I think that if it's an even remotely correct figure, the amount of oil he can claim should reflect only that of nations still in existence. Otherwise, it's economic puppetwanking, IMO. I think since the issue has been raised here, it now bears investigating.

[New Manth]

*shrugs* The NS oil market is very, very large, and quite diverse.

[Santheres]

Coalition Oil can easily fill the gap for at least the non-evil states that GC provides for.

Join Coalition Oil! Buy from Coalition Oil!

[/shameless plug that is actually relevant]

Kato, that was me. I went through his list of nations to see which were around or not. I don't remember if it was five, though, and I believe I also used "active and not RPing as having anything to do with you" as part of the criteria, but I can't be sure about that, either.

[New Manth]

Coalition Oil can easily fill the gap for at least the non-evil states that GC provides for.

Join Coalition Oil! Buy from Coalition Oil!

[/shameless plug that is actually relevant]

Or from the Libra Consortium

[Santheres]

Coalition Oil can easily fill the gap for at least the non-evil states that GC provides for.

Join Coalition Oil! Buy from Coalition Oil!

[/shameless plug that is actually relevant]

Or from the Libra Consortium :D

I don't know who they are but they should join Coalition Oil. :D

Edit: Found the postabout countries. Take from it what you will.

[Katonazag]

Yes, I guess that was you, San.

However, the point stands that if he can't ICly support his claims because the nations don't exist anymore or are long inactive, then the amount of oil incoming and outgoing, and amount of revenue are also out of whack. I don't have much of a problem with ballparking stuff on here if it's kept reasonably plausible, but I just don't think that extinct or long inactive sources should count.

[The State of Monavia]

Perhaps Blackhelm will RP having conquered the nations in question and made them BC territory. This means that they are now part of Blackhelm, and GC can claim them.

[New Manth]

I think that is the general idea. Although the ones that got glassed, ala British Londinium might be out of the running

[The State of Monavia]

I think that is the general idea. Although the ones that got glassed, ala British Londinium might be out of the running

Unless they were thoroughly glassed, the Griffincrest Corporation can still claim some output (perhaps even at a profitable level ) and use it to BC/GC's advantage.

[Allemande]

Folks, I'm not trying to be pro-Blackhelm on this; I'm glad to see someone taking him down a notch. Nor am I eager to see a general increase in oil prices - although Allemande itself is less vulnerable to this than most countries, as I've RPd it to be a nation that relies more on nuclear power and alternative fuels than most. Truth is, there are some countries out there like the Parthians that are going to make a killing on this, and given their track record (cf. "The Price of Purity"), I'm not thrilled at that prospect.

But I thought I should be realistic about it. Even if Griffincrest isn't the biggest oil producer on the block, the fungibility of oil (cited earlier, and a factor I was going to cite when I started my thread) will mean that a general price increase should occur. Whether this is a lasting increase or not is hard to say.

You're ordering Griffincrest to renegotiate all existing contracts. Assuming that this happens, there will be confusion and delays as it happens. It is naive to assume that existing production will continue in the face of contractual uncertainties as to who will be getting what in exchange for the sale of the product being pumped; I would imagine shutdowns in many places where contracts are forced into renegotiation.

I have other reasons for starting the thread; I will have to deal domestically with protests from corporate interests to the notion that Griffincrest's officials can be forced out of their positions by diktat, as well as the notion that they can be forced so stand trial before an international tribunal. Every corporate CEO is going to panic and ask, "Could that be me someday?" even if he or she isn't doing anything close to what Julius Griffincrest has been doing. Executives don't like legal ambiguity, and this introduces all kinds of confusion into the international business scene.

Again, I'm not being pro-Griffincrest here; I just think that actions have consequences, and we ought not to try and escape them in our RP.

[New Manth]

I have other reasons for starting the thread; I will have to deal domestically with protests from corporate interests to the notion that Griffincrest's officials can be forced out of their positions by diktat, [...] Executives don't like legal ambiguity, and this introduces all kinds of confusion into the international business scene.

*shrugs*

There's really not much legal ambiguity.

If your CEOs become pirates and de facto terrorists, and start declaring war on small nations for their resources, then, frankly, yes, they should expect to be forced out (hopefully by you!). If not, there is no precedent being set here. Piracy and its associated crimes have always come under international jurisdiction both in NS and RL. In addition, several nations associated with the ultimatum (including Manth) hold the Corporation responsible for direct attacks against themselves or allies.

Don't do those things, and there is no precedent set here. Do do them, and there already was a precedent.

[Katonazag]

In the Ultimatum, we weren't saying all of GC's contracts had to be renegotiated, only the ones made under duress.

And as far as CEO accountability is concerned, both ICly and OOCly, I believe that everyone should be held accountable for their actions, whether excellent or heinous, regardless of where they are in society or government. To give them a pass for what they've done is unconscionable. Often times, doing the right thing is not cheap, not easy, not popular, or any combination of those. If this wasn't the case, more people, corporations, and nations would be doing the right things and we wouldn't be faced with problems like those posed by GC. I am convinced that following through with our current course of action, though tough at times on all of those fronts, is the right thing to do and that persevering to completion will produce the best long-term outcome.

[Allemande]

<sigh>

The fact that I agree with you doesn't mean that I can ignore the fact that some people may panic when they see this happening, especially when they are part of a class of individuals who are, in a certain sense, a targeted political minority. After all, communists view all CEO's as international criminals. What would happen if a large communist alliance began demanding that the CEOs of large corporations that "exploited the people" be handed over to international tribunals so that "the peoples' justice" can be carried out against them?

If you don't think CEOs - even CEOs who've never done anything remotely like what Julius Griffincrest has done - wouldn't be at least a little nervous about this action, you're really not thinking clearly. For any nation with large private enterprises, this is going to be a political issue that will have to be addressed - or should be.

Those of you who live in America can best relate to this, but imagine this were happening in the world today and Rush Limbaugh were out there talking about it on drive-time radio. Do you think he could demagogue it into a political issue in America? Do you think he would? If your answer to both questions isn't "yes", you're being hopelessly naive.

What I said was that it was a political issue I will have to address internally. None of you have to allow it to manifest itself in your countries; I'm choosing to have it manifest itself in mine. That doesn't make me pro-Griffincrest, and I'd rather you didn't treat me as though I were.

It is simply - again - a matter of feeling that I ought to address the consequences of this rather than pretend there are none.

ADDENDUM: Which of Griffincrest's contracts weren't made under duress? Any of them? And what nation won't claim they weren't, especially if oil prices start rising?