NationStates

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Chamber of Deputies · Senate · Governors · Municipal · Ballot Measures

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OOC: Welcome to the official elections results hub for the 2022 Wagain Election Season, capping nearly three months of spirited hand-shaking, cold-calling, and baby-kissing, with plenty of intrigue and invective along the way. This thread is formatted as an election blog, produced by Wagondia's national broadcaster MPP, and as such will feature live analysis as results slowly trickle in from east to west, across the empire. Each province/region will report at 11pm local time, spread over the course of two days — see below for a comprehensive schedule and preview of the next update. Commentary and questions from all nations are welcome, however a response cannot be guaranteed. In particular, I would like to thank Cybus1, Timmy City, and The Orson Empire, as well as my other region-mates in the Empire of Andrew, for making this such a memorable RP, and for never failing to raise the stakes to new and exciting heights. Enjoy!

Ballot Measures

@MTriana_MPP

Intro Theme

Good morning to all those who are tuning in across the empire and around the world. This is MPP, the voice of the tropics, coming to you live from our elections results centre in Castrofeite Parish, Santa Catalina. I'm Mónica Triana, senior politics correspondent at MPP, and I'll be co-hosting this blog for the next few days. If I never see a polling spread again, it'll be too soon!

@IHonorato_MPP

And I'm Igor Honorato, friend of the show and senior fellow at the Sancho-Lira Research Institute, just down the road here in Santa Catalina. I'll be helping out Mónica with running this blog, and of course providing some real-time data analysis as the results come in.

@MTriana_MPP

It's still bright and early on election day in Santa Catalina, but at the far eastern fringes of Wagondia, our countrymen have already spoken, and spoken loudly! The Overseas Collectivity of Wagain Micronesia — one of two such territories in the Pacific — is home to a modest 250,000 people, but it's something of a minor celebrity in political circles. Situated just alongside the International Date Line, it is the first possession to rise in the morning, first to go to work, and around November time, the first vote in federal elections. Polls have already closed in the Marshall Islands, along with Kosrae and Pohnpei districts, but seeing as they together comprise only 40% of the total population, it's too early to call anything for certain. Expect the first definitive call in about half an hour, when precincts begin to report from Guam (an administratively separate territory which sends its own deputy to Santa Catalina).

@IHonorato_MPP

What we can say about the results so far is that turnout looks high — very high. Some preliminary numbers coming out of Majuro and the Marshall Islands suggest as many as 80% of eligible voters are casting a ballot this November, their first chance to do so since 2018. Obviously we're dealing with a very small sample size here, but if it holds up we could be dealing with the largest democratic process in the country's history.

@MTriana_MPP

And we're off to the races! Our friends on the press wire have released the first cluster of results in what will no doubt be a very long day, and already there are some surprises! Roman Perdido, a relatively moderate conservative deputy who been a stalwart supporter of climate change intervention, has relatively easily cinched up re-nomination in Wagain Micronesia. What might be more juicy, however, is the result in neighboring Guam, where Christine Laguana appears to have unseated a Labour incumbent in a very early party flip. The Opposition really hammered in on the national security and crime messaging in the final weeks of the campaign, and that appears to have paid off in Guam, a territory with longstanding military ties which is home to Wagondia's Pacific fleet. Chalk two up on the board for the PB!

@IHonorato_MPP

So Laguana's victory isn't exactly revolutionary, but it's not a great sign heading into the Philippines, where there has been a much higher-profile conservative presence in recent weeks. It's also worth nothing that Guam Prop. G, legalizing gambling in the territory, passed with a comfortable margin. While it's not the most openly partisan ballot measure on the docket today, and never really factored into the national conversation, it could be a sign of a mildly pro-business, anti-regulation slant heading into some much more consequential measures later on in the day. Hard to draw a firm conclusion with so much yet unknown, but you have to imagine the Labour Party was hoping for a better start off the block.

@MTriana_MPP

I think the pundits are going to feel more emboldened with the next update, Igor. The lone Senate race in Wagain Micronesia is still too close to call, meaning it's going to come down to Palau to decide the margin. Incumbent Tula Tchao-Machoro represents the left-wing Aprista Alliance, so a loss there could be a sign of troubled water ahead for the government.

@MTriana_MPP

Looks like it was a close one in Micronesia, but Tula Tchao-Machoro (Apr) has managed to hold onto her seat, keeping it in the liberal column for the foreseeable future. Remember that the Aprista Alliance, along with their parliamentary allies in the Afro-Caribbean Alliance and Green Party, are running to the left of Labour, so even in the event that the government coalition pulls through, who actually leads that coalition could be unclear. If the Apristas perform ahead of Labour in the end, expect them to push for a change in management.

@IHonorato_MPP

And to state the obvious, that kind of internal influence jockeying will be a non-starter if the conservatives overperform expectations today. Even a very modest pickup of thirteen seats in the Chamber of Deputies will put Etelson Lemercier in Maynard Palace, as Wagondia's next Prime Minister. As of noon Santa Catalina time, polls are closing in the Philippines and Macau, two major prizes which have seen intense campaigning this autumn.

@MTriana_MPP

Good point! Ironically, the conservatives need fewer pickups to control the Chamber of Deputies (13) than they need to control the Senate (15), even though the lower house is four or five times larger. It would take a very, very good night to deliver the Senate to the Opposition. Their path to leadership of the Chamber of Deputies, and by extension the premiership, looks much clearer and more attainable for now.

@MTriana_MPP

Important results coming out from Macau on our politics wire. It looks like Mia Chao Macedo will be re-elected by a comfortable margin, and that her coattails have been long enough to flip two seats in the Chamber of Deputies. That's +3 for the Opposition tonight by my count. It's too early to tell if Rafinha Soong, a Labour Senator with deep familial ties in Macau (his great-grandfather was Sun Yat-sen), will pull through. Macau is another hard-to-place wildcard on the Wagain political landscape — highly diverse and urbanized, but not without a strong libertarian streak, as evidenced by Proposition C. It is, of course, the beating heart of the empire's gambling industry, and so not averse to pro-business politics.

@IHonorato_MPP

A pretty explosive set of updates from the Philippines, Mónica. I was just on the phone with a colleague of mine in Manila, and although it's nearly 1:30 in the morning there, he says the energy in the provincial capital is palpable. The city just elected its second straight socialist mayor in Estrellita Tan, but ultimately it looks like government support failed to materialize out in the suburbs and countryside. The Admiral Hipper, a Kosarek ocean liner hastily outfitted as a Partido Blanco command ship, is reportedly setting off fireworks in Manila Bay — and it looks like they could be keeping it up for some time!

@MTriana_MPP

The Philippines were always going to be a vulnerable spot for the government, but I don't think anyone outside of North Santa Catalina expected the province to shift quite so firmly to the right. Before this election, four of the five largest provinces in Wagondia were led by Labour governors, epitomizing the kind of responsible, establishment left politics of the Barrachina Coalition. Now at least one of those pillars has fallen, as Wildemar Crisostomo appears to have been comfortably upstaged by populist lightning rod Rudy Mascardo. There's no denying that this is a huge coup for the Partido Blanco, and already there are low-level whispers that Mascardo could be Prime Minister in five or ten years' time.

In Parliament, there's now a +8 Conservative swing in the Chamber of Deputies, by my count, and +1 in the Senate, where the PB secured four of six seats, squeezing out one of only a handful of Green Party senators. Ciro Cardeñas, the newest Filipino Senator, is no stranger to the capital, having served as Chief of Staff of the Wagain Army until retiring earlier this year. Maybe it was star power, or maybe it was the heavy messaging (some might say fear-mongering) about state-sponsored violence in the People's Republic of Orson, right at the doorstep. Either way, the government is going to be limping across the Indian Ocean into Wagain Africa, where some much-needed reinforcements are going to have to materialize.

@IHonorato_MPP

Speaking of the spectre of Communism, Mónica... I don't know if you follow Māia Akenehi on Libra (as any self-respecting journalist would), but she's currently spouting off with Francisco D'Anconia, darling of the political right. No doubt D'Anconia is having a good start to his day, having sunk a considerable amount of time and money into a Blanco win this November.

@MTriana_MPP

I think the Orsonian First Commissar is a fascinating figure, Igor, and one whose role in this election will likely be debated for some time into the future. She's a very different flavor of politician from what we typically see from the Orsonian realm, avoiding the larger-than-life personality cults which defined the public lives of Turner, Kuza, and even Jerick Pallas to an extent. She's seems more than capable of choosing her battles, however, as this most recent engagement suggests. Akenehi's presence at the General Assembly this week, and her subsequent tour across the country, could warm a lot of hearts unaccustomed to hearing conciliatory rhetoric from an Orsonian political leader. Let's not forget that Orsonians comprise a major voting bloc in a number of crucial provinces, not least Argentina, Angola, and the Federal District, all of which should be reporting tonight.

@MTriana_MPP

A small spot of relief for the liberal coalition coming out of Goa. The incumbent senator there, Olívia Koshyari, will hold her seat, as will Macau's Rafinha Soong according to the latest batch of results. That's two rather vulnerable Labour senators who have managed to eke out a win today, preventing an all-out Conservative sweep in the Asia-Pacific region (at least in the upper house, that is). Ballot measures seem to be a mixed bag, with a flag-burning amendment having failed in Goa, at the same time Macanese voters have seemingly capped their taxes for a decade and a half. If only, if only...

@IHonorato_MPP

I have to agree, a transfer to our Macau office has never looked better. Until I can get my bags packed, enjoy a couple hours' break while we wait for things to finish up in Wagain Africa. I think the office is heading down the street for some coffee — my fourth of the day so far, according to official projections.

@MTriana_MPP

And we're back in the election panopticon, this time honing in on Wagain Africa. I would expect Equatorial Guinea and Gabon to report first, followed some time later by Angola and its juicy 38 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. There was some movement here from the conservative bloc late in the campaign season; only the Election Tracker will be able to tell us if anything came of that effort.

@IHonorato_MPP

I'm also keeping my eye on two particular factors in the Angola race in particular — the turnout of the Orsonian community, and the performance of the left-wing ballot measure concerning universal pre-k. These are narratives which will repeat themselves later, in even more populous provinces.

@MTriana_MPP

Not too many waves so far with our first report out of Wagain Africa. Rufin Kassa has cruised to re-election in Gabon, keeping that governorship in the liberal column, but then any other result would have been a very ominous sign for the Prime Minister. Speaking of which, there's been no news from Maynard Palace so far today, in observation of a longstanding custom that political leaders remain silent until the final election results have been called. Another time-honored tradition — and one I have personally benefitted from just hours ago — is the complementary election sausage, usually prepared by poll workers as a way to attract turnout and raise money for charity.