2022 Wagain General Election (Live Results; ATTN EOA)

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

That's a fairly palatable showing for the government in Venezuela, where they held their foothold in the Senate and only lost one net seat in the lower house to the conservative coalition. Venezuela is the swingiest of swing states, with a partisanship rating and demographic makeup that pretty closely mirrors the country as a whole, but I would hesitate to read too much into the tea leaes at this point. For one, the province's young and popular Governor, Asier Monagas (PB) likely had a dampening effect on some of the frenetic anti-establishmentism we've seen elsewhere, buttressing the political center. In an environment where you have a more polarizing figure in the governor's mansion, you might see more of a digression from the mean.

@IHonorato_MPP

And now it's off to the West Coat of South America, where the PB has historically enjoyed relatively strong support. They'll want to run up the margins as high as possible there, to give them some wiggle room heading into Middle America and Stephen Harper's backyard. Until then, we'll be doing some housekeeping on the results centre, adjusting for all the changes we've seen in the past couple hours.

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

With turnout as high as it's been this cycle, results are naturally going to take a bit longer to report and process. We'll be calling it a night here in Santa Catalina, but tune in bright and early tomorrow for the final returns out of the Western Caribbean, followed by a daylong hike along the Western coast of South and Central America, culminating in the all-important prize of Mexico. So for the benefit of all those tuning in, let's do some self-reflection. Where do we stand at the end of Day 2, Igor?

@IHonorato_MPP

Well if I'm looking at it from the perspective of Opposition Leader Lemercier, who is very much hoping to send Prime Minister Barrachina into an early retirement, I'll lay out the news from most to least promising.

The Opposition continues to overperform in governorships, having notched another turnover in Trinidad & Tobago today for a net gain of +3. They may well secure a majority of state houses around the country, which could cushion the landing if they fail to win a majority in either chamber of Parliament.

They're doing well, but not well enough in the surprisingly competitive Chamber of Deputies, where the Opposition is outperforming by +1 seat from their 2018 margin — that's 12 short of the magic number. I think it's safe to say that hopes of a 100- or 200-seat swing by either coalition are not going to pan out this cycle, and that we're quite likely to end up with another (relatively) narrow majority, which could break for either side at this point. Believe it or not, the betting market has barely shifted, even though nearly 600 races have already been decided since the start of this broadcast. Timmian website WorldPredict has the government's odds at 66 cents and the opposition at 34 cents at time of writing (compared to 61-39 on Sunday), so there's been an ever-so-slight movement of the needle towards the government.

In the Senate, the PB has put forward a varsity effort and is currently sitting at a net gain of +2 seats, but it's not the kind of palace coup they needed to close the gap in one sitting. The government needs just three more seats to secure its majority, and with twenty-seven still uncalled, that's all but an inevitability at this point. The question on most people's minds is not if there will be a liberal Senate, but when, and how beefy its majority will be. There's still a lot of ground to cover, and if you need a reminder of why every seat counts, I'll refer you to the Uranium Consolidations Act from this summer, which would have never been taken up by Parliament with just two more conservative votes in the upper house.

So TLDR, it's more or less a coin flip on whether Fradique Barrachina is going to be playing celebrity golf for the rest of his life.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

The first races of day three are now coming across on the news wire. MPP is prepared to project the following results from the Bahamas:

Incumbent senator Jametta Munroe (PB) appears to have lost her bid for re-election. The people of the Bahamas have instead backed Taye Gregory (AAC), flipping that seat for the government.

The conservatives had more success in the province's at-large seat in the Chamber of Deputies, where moderate incumbent Ashley Grenville (PB) has secured an additional term.

PB: 1 (even)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
2,6013,113

08:57 SCT || 30 November 2022

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

Jamaica is also releasing full returns for its one senate race and three seats in the lower house.

Incumbent senator Joan Quimper (PB) has fallen short of the threshold required for re-election. An internal party revolt appears to have been successful, with alternative candidate Dana Bustamante (PB) taking her place.

In the Chamber of Deputies, all three incumbents have secured re-election, disappointing liberal hopes that they could flip a swing seat in the Kingston exurbs.

PB: 2 (even)
AAC: 1 (even)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
2,5992,920

09:09 SCT || 30 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

And another good morning to you all, in what is our third and (hopefully) final day of covering Election 2022. We're starting off in the English Caribbean, land of hurricanes and hedge fund managers. Do you want to start us off, Igor?

@IHonorato_MPP

I have to earn my keep somehow, Mónica! The Caribbean is keeping things interesting for us, with a flipped senate seat in the Bahamas and a primary challenge in Jamaica.

In both provinces, there was a lot of late-stage campaigning by centrist pressure groups looking to capture the Timmian vote. Those efforts appear to have been broadly successful: in the Bahamas, a young liberal has unseated a PB incumbent, continuing a leftward trend which began with the election of firebrand senator Nkosi Sutherland (also AAC) two years ago. In Jamaica, incumbent Joan Quimper, who sits on the right of the Partido Blanco, was unseated by Dana Bustamante, granddaughter of a former Prime Minister and self-proclaimed radical centrist.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

With 80% of precincts reporting in Haiti, MPP News is prepared to call a cluster of races there.

Incumbent governor Hamza Coutant (AAC) has easily secured a third term in office, cementing his status as a party elder.

Thanks to strong turnout in Metro Port-au-Prince, not to mention Coutant's endorsement, Julio Barthelemy (Apr) has overtaken incumbent Senator Léa Hirzallah (PWT) from the left.

Haiti Proposition 17 (Should the provincial lottery be disbanded?) has been very narrowly APPROVED by provincial voters, by a margin of just 51% to 49%.

In the Chamber of Deputies, where Haiti holds 13 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 3 (even)
PWT: 1 (-2)
Apr: 1 (even)
AAC: 8 (+2)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
2,5872,941

09:53 SCT || 30 November 2022

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

And now to Cuba, for the last returns out of the Caribbean:

Governor Kenia Arozarena (PWT), the first Afro-Cuban executive in the province's history, has cruised to a second term.

The picture is more complicated in the Senate, where incumbent Verónica Tin (PWT), a Chinese-Cuban former district attorney, is running into greater than expected resistance. With 95% reporting, MPP is prepared to call this race for challenger Víctor Quevedo Puig (PB), flipping a further senate seat for the Opposition.

Regarding the two major referendums on the ballot, Havana Municipal Proposition F (Shall a moratorium on new high-rise constructions be observed, in order to protect architectural heritage?) has been widely APPROVED by the city's residents. Cuba Provincial Proposition 20 (Shall non-citizens receive the right to vote in all nonfederal elections?) has also been APPROVED, by a commanding margin of 64% to 36%.

In the Chamber of Deputies, where Cuba holds 13 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 4 (+1)
PWT: 4 (-2)
LPH: 3 (even)
Apr: 2 (+1)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
4,4236,541

10:57 SCT || 30 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@IHonorato_MPP

Haiti looks like it's further cemented its leftist credentials with a primary pickup by the Apristas and the narrow passage of a referendum targeting that province's for-profit lottery system. In Cuba, there's movement in the other direction — a surprise flip for the Partido Blanco in the upper house will hold the Senate liberals at 105 seats, just a thread away from a majority.

@MTriana_MPP

Those senate races are particularly interesting, Igor. Of the four incumbents on the ballot in the Western Caribbean, every single one of them was defeated, whether by an opposing party or a resurgent faction within their own ranks. As a control group, there's no better evidence that the heavy politicking around America's doorstep paid off. Stephen Harper's intense get-out-the-vote efforts in the French Caribbean no doubt ran up the margins in Haiti, while Esperanza Bacardi and Cybusian 'airship politics' achieved quite the opposite effect in Cuba. Even as voters in the Pearl of the Antilles widely approved a liberal ballot measure and renewed their Labour governor's lease on power, the Partido Blanco picked up seats in both houses of Parliament. For what it's worth, Senator-elect Víctor Quevedo Puig is very much a politician in the Bacardi mold — young, energetic, unapologetically anti-communist, and affluent (his family has long owned the airline Cubana de Avación).

[Novo Wagondia]

@IHonorato_MPP

On a separate note, I would be surprised if we've seen the end of the campaign to extend voting rights in Wagondia. Cuba's Proposition 20, which extends the franchise to non-citizens, passed with the support of nearly 2/3 of voters, proving such interventions are popular with the public. However the rest of this day plays out, the influence of expatriate and immigrant communities is going to be one of the most important takeaways from Election 2022, and you can count on a bipartisan effort to win them over for the next cycle. For example, I could easily see Parliament moving to codify non-citizen voting rights at the federal level, or even lower the voting age to 16 to better capture the youth vote.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

Some projections now being released from Ecuador:

Another milestone in the governor's race, where climate activist Analuisa Lucio (CVA) is projected to be the first Green Party governor in Wagain history, defeating Quito Mayor Esteban Mina (PB) in the general.

Of Ecuador's two seats in the Senate, MPP is projecting that Olimpia Estevez (PWT), a major Barrachina ally and chair of the Armed Services Committee, will secure re-election. Her classmate, one-term senator Berengária Gates (LPH), faced a tougher route in a climate hostile to the Liga. MPP is projecting that Johanna Tapia (PB) will poach this seat, flipping it for the conservative Opposition.

In the Chamber of Deputies, where Ecuador holds 21 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 7 (-2)
Apr: 3 (+3)
PWT: 4 (-1)
LPH: 2 (even)
CVA: 5 (even)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
3,5714,877

13:26 SCT || 30 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

Having secured 106 of 210 seats in Wagondia's upper house, MPP News is calling control of the Senate for the Government Coalition, returning it to liberal control for at least two more years.

---

★ ★ ★ Liberal Coalition Wins Senate ★ ★ ★

---

106 of 210 seats clinched

RETWEETSFAVORITE
12,37517,442

13:34 SCT || 30 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

With Taye Gregory, Julio Barthelemy, and now Olimpia Estevez having triumphed in their respective races, our Election Tracker is officially calling the Senate for the Liberal Coalition. That's not an unexpected result given the strong head-start the government had there already, but it's nonetheless a welcome bit of news for Fradique Barrachina. The Senate has several powers which the Prime Minister will absolutely need in his corner, least of which the ratification of foreign treaties. Keep in mind, however, that any measure which actually raises or spends money, say, a hypothetical $3.9 trillion global reconstruction package, will still have to go through the Chamber of Deputies.

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

Lest we get too distracted by the big picture, Analuisa Lucio's win in the Ecuador gubernatorial race comes at a commendable moment for the Green Party. Ecuador is one of the few provinces where the Greens are the main party of liberalism, and it looks like it will remain that way for the foreseeable future. The Aprista Alliance may be Wagondia's oldest and most successful socialist party, but it's not the whole story on the Left. The CVA and AAC have done a good job guarding the flanks, locking down critical demographics in Africa, the Caribbean, the Brazilian Amazon, and elsewhere.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

MPP News is now releasing projections from Peru and Colombia, the nation's sixth and fourth-largest provinces, respectively.

Beginning further south in Peru, MPP is zeroing in on one of the most closely-watched gubernatorial races in the country. Conservative incumbent Mackenna Moreno (PB) is popular in the province, but he faces a stiff challenge from socialist Sami Vilca (Apr), who is hoping to mobilize Peru's large Amerindian voting bloc. With more than 95% of the vote reporting, MPP is rating this contest as TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

Peru Proposition 8 (Should province-level toll roads be brought under state management?), which conservative surrogates campaigned against in the closing weeks, will be REJECTED by voters by a 54% to 46% margin.

In the Senate, where Peru holds three seats, MPP is projecting that Pinca Amancay (Apr) and Lienhard Merancia (PB) will meet the threshold required for re-election. It appears that chocolate baroness Evita Ghirardelli (LPH) will also clear that vital benchmark, but only just. Many spent votes from the Partido Blanco seem to have gone to Ghirardelli as a second or third-ranked choice.

In the Chamber of Deputies, where Peru holds 39 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 18 (+2)
PWT: 6 (-1)
LPH: 3 (-6)
Apr: 11 (+8)
CVA: 1 (-1)
PNW: 0 (-2)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
6,1116,433

15:03 SCT || 30 November 2022

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

Now for Colombia.

In the Senate, there are three seats up for grabs. MPP is currently projecting that one-term incumbent Cordelia Gutiérrez (PNW) will fall short of the threshold required for re-election, as will two-term incumbent Camila Yashruti (LPH). In their place, career UCP diplomat Galo Rodríguez (PB) and economist Tito Arango (Apr) will be elected. PB incumbent Bartolomé Guaita, who announced his retirement earlier this year, will be replaced by Diego Alejandro Taha (PB), of the same party.

In the Chamber of Deputies, where Colombia holds 59 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 33 (+5)
PWT: 12 (-2)
LPH: 6 (-6)
Apr: 7 (+4)
CVA: 1 (even)
PNW: 0 (-1)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
5,9106,586

16:11 SCT || 30 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@IHonorato_MPP

A good chunk of the remaining blank space was just filled in, courtesy of Colombia and Peru. The provinces are somewhat similar in that they are somewhat socially conservative and led by popular PB governors, but were seen as potential (and dare I say juicy) targets for the government heading into this election.

@MTriana_MPP

I'd say that scheme played out a big more in Peru than in Colombia, Igor. We don't yet know if Sami Vilca pulled off an upset in the Peruvian gubernatorial contest, but the Apristas are going to be celebrating regardless, having picked a solid eight seats there. That's mainly off the back of their Liga coalition partners, though, so overall the government just about broke even with its 2018 performance in Peru. In Colombia, the Apristas also over-performed, but not on quite the same level. That could be because of its whiter voter base, or the relative lack of campaign resources given to the province when compared to, say, Mexico or Chile. It certainly represents a change in management, though, with an entirely new slate of Colombian Senators heading to Santa Catalina. Cordelia Gutiérrez, the only PNW Senator on the ballot, has been pushed out, as has Camila Yashruti, a rather powerful Liga parliamentarian who leads the Culture & Heritage Committee.

@IHonorato_MPP

Earlier we established that the PB had to do quite well in this time zone to remain competitive heading into the final stretch. Would you say they met their target, Mónica?

@MTriana_MPP

Hard to say, really. They did well in spots, Colombia and Cuba certainly being among them, but it's not as consistent a picture as the Opposition Leader might have hoped for. He's not going to be heading into Central America with much of an insurance policy, so any big loses there are going to cut deep.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

Following the tabulation of the final absentee and overseas ballots, MPP is prepared to declare the Peruvian Governor's Race for Mackenna Moreno (PB), ending hopes of a socialist upset in the province.

RETWEETSFAVORITE
6,2367,648

16:48 SCT || 30 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@IHonorato_MPP

And there's our very last projection from South America in this cycle. Mackenna Moreno has managed to eke out another term in Peru, to the delight of conservatives across the country. This race generated a lot of hype here in Wagondia for what it represented — an indigenous politician, let alone a socialist indigenous politician, has yet to lead such a large province. The Apristas will get another attempt in Guatemala with Martir Fernández, but until then I think it's safe to say that Vilca isn't going anywhere, and could ready himself for another run later down the line.

@MTriana_MPP

We're going to break for an hour to have some dinner bring our results tables up to speed, but after that we'll be racing right up the spine of Central America, where there are some marquee races still to be decided. By my count, that's a current standing of +4 for the Opposition in the Chamber of Deputies — 9 short of what they need — and +3 in the Senate, which has now been officially called for the liberals. Now it's off to our local Orsonian hole in the wall for some Ngāra nachos. Tastes just like chicken, if chickens had an exoskeleton and were resistant to ecological collapse. Yum!

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

MPP is now calling its first races from Central America.

Beginning with the Belize senate race, moderate incumbent Morgan Hatto (PB), current vice-chair of the Foreign Relations Committee, will win re-election by a healthy margin.

In the Chamber of Deputies, the province's sole representative, Gray Benavides (PB), will hold his at-large seat.

PB: 1 (even)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
546800

21:12 SCT || 30 November 2022

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

And now for Panama.

In the Senate, centrist incumbent Hidalgo Marron (LPH) has faced an uphill battle for re-election. MPP is projecting that his seat will instead flip to provincial assemblywoman Xenia Balboa (Apr), in a successful challenge from the left of the governing coalition.

In the Chamber of Deputies, where Panama holds 5 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 2 (even)
PWT: 1 (even)
LPH: 1 (even)
CVA: 1 (even)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
1,5881,641

21:43 SCT || 30 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@IHonorato_MPP

Not a lot of movement in Panama and Belize on the parliamentary level, with the notable exception of Panamanian senator Hidalgo Marron's defeat at the hands of writer and feminist activist Xenia Balboa. Panama mostly flew under the radar this election cycle, attracting no major endorsements or campaigning from the major overseas pressure groups, so those more analytically minded among us might consider it something of a control to the experiments conducted elsewhere in the empire. There's no longer any doubt that the Apristas have pulled off a socialist wave this cycle, but observers will be anxiously looking for signs of long-term stability, and whether this momentum will hold once the deep pockets of foreign benefactors are off the table. Panama suggests that socialism may well have the legs to go the distance.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

MPP News is prepared to project a number of races from Costa Rica.

The Costa Rican gubernatorial race, one of the most hotly-contested in the nation, is being called with greater than 95% of precincts reporting. MPP is projecting that the government will hold this seat, and that incumbent governor Carolina Guasch (PWT) is headed for another term. This may be the closest contest so far; returns suggest that a margin of less than 0.2% separated Guasch from her opponent, Speaker of the Provincial Assembly Alexia Avellanos (PB).

MPP is also able to call Costa Rica's senate race for Patricio Moya (PB), a professor from suburban San José who has billed himself as a pro-business moderate. This is a solid win for the conservative opposition, flipping a seat away from the LPH and retiring incumbent Orquídia Martinez.

In the Chamber of Deputies, where Costa Rica holds 6 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 3 (+1)
PWT: 2 (-1)
LPH: 1 (even)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
7,1509,373

22:25 SCT || 30 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@IHonorato_MPP

Looks like the PB is going to walk away from Costa Rica with some incremental gains, something they'll need to keep up for any chance at the majority. A Chamber district was flipped away from the Labour Party in suburban San José — the same region which largely delivered
Orquídia Martinez's senate seat into the hands PB challenger Patricio Moya. But it's not all bad news for the government, which successfully held onto the governor's mansion in perhaps the tightest province-level race this cycle. It's possible that the Prime Minister is to thank for that one, and not in an indirect framing and messaging type of way. He spent much of the last week riding the rails in Central America alongside Stephen Harper, knocking on doors and shaking hands. It's possible his close association with Governor Guasch put her over the top here, if only by a smidge.

@MTriana_MPP

And that's all she needed! The Prime Minister is known to delegate substantial autonomy to his cabinet officials, who he dispatched to the four corners of the earth last month, but he's quite the barnstormer himself. His penchant for oratory, acerbic wit, and famously informal attire are cultivated traits which he honed as a street journalist in Hong Kong, and which have endeared him to common people ever since. Now that the Third World War is a distant memory, I'll be hoping to see him resume travel overseas. And not only because I have a press pass on the state aircraft (I'm talking open bar and unlimited texting, people)

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

Turning north, there are key projections coming out of Nicaragua and Honduras.

In Nicaragua's senate race, incumbent Juvenal Hinestroza (PB) has secured re-election with 85% of precincts reporting.

There is slightly more movement downballot. In the Chamber of Deputies, where Nicaragua holds 8 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 4 (+1)
PWT: 2 (even)
LPH: 2 (-1)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
1,3741,458

23:13 SCT || 30 November 2022

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

This cycle, Honduras just so happens to be electing two senators. MPP News is projecting both incumbents, Ramiro Restrepo (PB) and Asaley Carrera (PWT) to have secured another term in the upper house.

In the Chamber of Deputies, where Honduras holds 12 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 7 (even)
LPH: 2 (-1)
PWT: 1 (-1)
Apr: 1 (+1)
CVA: 1 (+1)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
2,3613,240

23:23 SCT || 30 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

Finishing off Central America, MPP News is reporting on some breaking developments out of Guatemala and El Salvador. Both provinces have seen intense campaigning surrounding high-profile gubernatorial and legislative races.

In the closely-watched governor's race in El Salvador, Alba Lain Berrios (Apr) looks like she is going to flip the provincial executive, triumphing over incumbent Alwar Santana (PB).

With 95% of precincts reporting, MPP projects the El Salvador senate race to go to Serafina Salas (Apr), in another flip that will poach that seat from the conservatives and incumbent Nehemiah Rozing (PB).

In the Chamber of Deputies, where El Salvador holds 8 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 3 (-1)
Apr: 2 (+1)
LPH: 3 (even)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
9,76711,549

00:50 SCT || 1 December 2022

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

And lastly to Guatemala.

In the governor's race, MPP News is projecting that Martir Fernández (Apr) will overcome the odds to carry his native province, flipping an office occupied by Maynard Portillo (PB) for the past eight years.

Guatemala's only Senator up for election this year, Indigenous Affairs Committee chairwoman Herminia Macal (PB), is projected to hold her seat, albeit by a slim margin.

In the Chamber of Deputies, where Honduras holds 21 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 11 (-2)
LPH: 2 (-2)
PWT: 1 (even)
Apr: 6 (+5)
PNW: 1 (-1)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
10,66213,781

01:08 SCT || 1 December 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

Lots to parse through, with four provinces reporting on each other's heels. Nicaragua and Honduras didn't shake the boat too much, but it's a very different story in El Salvador and Guatemalas, two of the most coveted prizes on the board tonight. Can you run us through what happened there, Igor?

@IHonorato_MPP

Well Mónica, El Salvador was considered to be a pure tossup by expert consensus heading into this election. Conservatives had hoped they could hold firm along this Central American 'blue wall', but the Apristas outperformed even their own estimates by flipping both the gubernatorial and senate races. Guatemala was supposed to be a somewhat higher hill to climb, rated lean conservative by most pollsters, but instead we saw another gubernatorial turnover and strong gains in the Chamber of Deputies (Senator Herminia Macal was the only major incumbent to keep her seat). Martir Fernández, governor-elect of Guatemala, is enjoying an especially symbolic win, as both the first socialist and first politician of indigenous descent to lead a large Wagain province. If the Apristas want to do more than nibble around the edges, and actually seize the reins of the liberal coalition, it's going to take more races like this one in the future. As long as the Labour Party can continue to roll out all-star governors in places like Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, their case for natural leadership is going to look pretty convincing.

@MTriana_MPP

I couldn't agree more, Igor. No doubt Manuel Huezo Mixco is going to be the subject of a lot of toasts tonight — his election to the Chamber of Deputies and rise to national stardom this summer was really the bolt of lightning the Apristas needed to make hay of this political moment. A coffee grower and union organizer by trade, Huezo Mixco has a compelling personal story that I think a lot of Wagains are attracted to, and he's a specialist in the kind of guerrilla grassroots work needed to flip seats in the heartland, as we saw this cycle with the Atavistas.

If you'll permit me a reference to gringo politics, Guatemala's place on the political landscape is looking a lot like the US State of Georgia right now. Both are fast-growing provinces with diverse, dynamic populations, but a political establishment which is whiter and more traditionally-minded than the region as a whole. Now that's starting to change, and with the right ground work, what was once bedrock territory for the conservatives is now suddenly a hyper-competitive swing state.

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

And that's just about everything in our inbox for day three, folks. With Central America behind us, we're within spitting distance of the end of this election. It's all or nothing at this point, with only around 150 seats left to declare.

Next time you hear from us, it'll be with the returns from Mexico in our hand, and the next Prime Minister waiting in the wings.

[Novo Wagondia]

@IHonorato_MPP

It's December in Santa Catalina! The palm trees are swaying, the toucans are chirping, and the UV index is 11 out of 10. And right under our Christmas tree we find a fresh batch of polls, courtesy of Papai Noel himself.

@MTriana_MPP

Can't say I've ever heard a toucan chirp, Igor. I've heard it described more like a croak, somewhere between a frog and a pig.

@IHonorato_MPP

That's no way to talk about our national animal, Mónica. If the streets of Castrofeite weren't so overcome by the sound of holiday cheer, I would walk right outside and prove you wrong.

@MTriana_MPP

Speaking of revelry, we're just minutes away from our last big projection of Election 2022. After a gut-punch in Guatemala and El Salvador, the Opposition is going to need a Philippines-level stroke of magic here to clear that elusive benchmark of 483 seats. I wouldn't call it quite yet, however.

@IHonorato_MPP

I'm inclined to agree, Mónica. The Prime Minister is a notoriously superstitious man, so I don't think you'll see any champagne being poured at Maynard Palace until this thing is done and called. According to our Election Tracker, the Opposition is confirmed to have won 390 seats so far in the lower house (382 for the Partido Blanco and 8 for the Partido Nacional). Assuming they hold their incumbency in Wagain Polynesia, the Blancos need 79 seats in Mexico, or just over half, to break even with their 2018 performance. To actually clinch the majority, however, they need 92, or around 60% of the seats in Mexico. It's not an impossible feat, to be sure, but it's a tall order, particularly if the trends we've seen elsewhere in Middle America hold.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

MPP News is now releasing its full suite of projections from Mexico, the nation's second-largest province.

At the top of the ticket, incumbent Governor Juan Garzoria (PWT) has faced spirited opposition from the daughter of a former Prime Minister. With 95% of precincts reporting, MPP News is calling this race for Caterina Cotilla (PB), flipping the Mexican governor's mansion in what will go down as a major upset.

In the Senate, where Mexico holds six seats, it looks like the current party distribution will hold. Incumbents Astrid Aranzábal (PB), Azalea Reinmiller (PB), Cristina Xicara Oy (Apr), Estibaliz Ocampo (PWT), and Pablo Bideguren (LPH) are projected to secure re-election. Constantino Godoy, who is retiring at the end of this term, will be replaced by a member of his own party, Camilo Mondragón (PB)

The last major statewide race is Mexico Proposition 10 (Shall transit be made free on the provincial level?), which has generated national publicity and elicited campaign funding in the order of billions. MPP News is projecting that this measure will be narrowly APPROVED by voters, by an expected margin of 51% to 49%

In the Chamber of Deputies, where Mexico holds 150 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 77 (+6)
PWT: 29 (-8)
LPH: 15 (-11)
Apr: 22 (+14)
CVA: 7 (-1)

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14:38 SCT || 1 December 2022