2022 Wagain General Election (Live Results; ATTN EOA)

[Novo Wagondia]

@IHonorato_MPP

Alright, Mónica, what do you want to tackle first? Angola or São Tomé?

@MTriana_MPP

It's honestly a tossup on which one will be have a greater impact on how we talk about this election. Angola, of course is much larger, and we've seen some milestones there tonight. Albertina Yusuf being elected as the first Orsonian-born mayor of a major Wagain city is a symbolic victory for a lot of Africans, and especially the country's large Orsonian refugee population, which turned out in droves tonight. Keep in mind this is the home province of Annie Riqueti, who just two years ago was awaiting execution in an Orsonian prison, and today is not only free, but overseeing the entire Barrachina reconstruction plan. That type of generational handoff is going to be a defining narrative heading into the future, in my mind. Outside of large, cosmopolitan Luanda, the conservatives were able to poach a seat or two, but overall it looks like the liberal coalition has stayed reasonably united.

In São Tomé, it looks like Etelson Lemericer is going to win by a solid margin, despite the dead-even partisanship of his island constituency. The eleventh-hour rally in support of centrist candidates likely helped, as the Opposition Leader is still considered a social liberal, even as his foreign policy has become increasingly hawkish in recent years. Downballot, we saw both Governor Robin and Senator Noronha re-elected in spite of stiff opposition, depriving the liberals of one of their riper pickup opportunities. Did someone say coattails?

@IHonorato_MPP

In a province with only 220,000 people, the favorite-son effect is certainly going to have an outsized impact. That senate race in particular was a must-win for the Partido Blanco, who need to hold every incumbency and then some to have a realistic chance at narrowing the upper house. As far as Angola is concerned, it looks like the Prime Minister's efforts to extend voting rights to refugees has benefitted him politically, in what I'm sure is a happy coincidence.

[Novo Wagondia]

@IHonorato_MPP

We have another hour or two to wait while we chase the sunset across the Atlantic, so why don't we take a moment to answer some fan mail, Mónica?

@MTriana_MPP

Great idea, Igor. There's a suspicious-looking package full of generic brand tic tacs which I don't think I'll be opening, but other than that the studio is absolutely drowning in letters right now. This one is from 'F. Newton', from Key West, Florida.

@IHonorato_MPP

Oh I love Florida, best Cubans I ever had in my life. The sandwich, I mean. Go Buckeyes!

@MTriana_MPP

Mr. Newton continues as follows:

"Hi @MPP_Política, overseas fan here. I've been watching the results closely, and think I know where each of the parties stand right now. What do you think?

If you're PB, based on current results, you know where you’re heading for some tough times in the next few hours. The next voting data coming up is coming from Orsonian populated areas. You are not going to do well in those areas. It’s better to be honest about it.

So, you’re probably watching Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, and the golden goose of Chile. Based on current trends, if you can really overperform in Chile and emulate those results in Mexico and Brazil. It’s time to go pick out a suit to wear to the inauguration.

If you're PWT and other left parties:

Congrats! The reinforcements are about to arrive. The Orsonian populated areas in Africa are guaranteed to elect, left, leaning candidates. The question is whether that impact is going to extend into other more swingy areas in Africa. If it does, you should feel good about your chances of surviving through the night you count on the influence and vote share from those places to compensate for losses in the Philippines and Macau.

Then, after that, you watch to see if they turn out in Argentina and Brazil.

If you're bright horizons and bold new better, you’re waiting to see how much of an effect your operations had. Both are heavily betting that they’re focus on their long term focus on the Caribbean. Paul knew better is hoping that they were going to significantly increase the margins in the left leaning places and flip vulnerable PB seats. You’re also watching to try to flip Mexico towards PWT."

Thanks for keeping in touch, Mr. Newton! We'll make sure to mail you a stuffed gerrymander, courtesy of the MPP politics team. Igor, you want to handle this one?

@IHonorato_MPP

Sure thing. I think you hit the nail on the head in more ways than one, Mr. Newton. I've inclined to agree that the Partido Blanco has generally been enjoying a home field advantage so far today. The Philippines was always going to be something of a low-hanging fruit, even if the PB did overperform expectations there, and Wagain Africa is quite heavily liberal already, so just staying the course is impressive. Put another way, they haven't had to defend too much in the first half, apart from maybe São Tomé. You're going to see a lot more opposition in places like Chile, where the Left could have an opportunity to change the narrative.

If you're the PWT and its allies in government, I would be looking very closely at some of these leftist ballot measures and mayoral races, in which we've seen young people and immigrants exceed turnout expectations. If hot-button topics like social justice or environmental protection are on the ballot, it's going to cast a shadow over the rest of the field. I think there's at least a moderate case to be made that conservative or populist-leaning referendums in places like Macau, Guam, and the Philippines have had a similar tailwind effect in the opposite direction, turning out PB-adjacent suburbanites.

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

We're just minutes away from some of our first projections in mainland Latin America, heartland of the Wagain Empire. Expect the dynamics to shift somewhat from before — the Liga Panhispánico (LPH), who have a marginal presence in Africa and Asia, are suddenly a contender, potentially diluting the liberal voting bloc — or poaching the countryside from the Opposition, depending on how you look at it. As usual, it's safe to expect smaller provinces to report first, steadily working our way up before culminating in the province of provinces, so big and (politically) bountiful that it hardly needs to be mentioned.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

With about 90% of precincts reporting in Cayenne, MPP News is prepared to call that province's gubernatorial race for Roosevelt Lindor (PB), a nationally prominent voice of moderation.

In the Senate and Chamber of Deputies, Cayenne will continue to be represented by the left-wing Aprista Alliance. Senator Kongmeng Lee (Apr) and freshman Deputy Muriel Noko (Apr) have both been easily confirmed.

Apr: 1 (even)

Cayenne Municipal Proposition E (Shall WiFi be made free and publicly accessible on the municipal level?) also appears to have been APPROVED by the city's residents.

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23:18 SCT || 28 November 2022

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

In neighboring Suriname, outgoing governor Demy Spierenberg will be replaced by his chief of staff and protégé, Rudolphine Dwarka (Apr).

In the Senate the province will be represented by Heiko Buuren (PWT), who has secured re-nomination despite closer than expected margins. The same can be said for the lower house, where Deputy Ahmad Widiyanto (PWT) will return for at least two more years.

PWT: 1 (even)

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23:26 SCT || 28 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

For a relatively minuscule province, Cayenne was always going to be a big call. Despite a strong preference for left-wing candidates at the federal level, Cayenne just so happens to be led by Roosevelt Lindor, a liberal conservative whose party identity has long been viewed as a potential liability. Tonight he appears to have proved the pundits wrong, clinching a second term, even as his countrymen have embraced 'big state' measures such as free public WiFi. Chalk that up as a major missed opportunity for the government.

And I almost forgot about Suriname! Rudolphine Dwarka seems poised to become one of only three Aprista governors in the country (the other two, in Guadeloupe and Martinique, are not up for election this cycle). That number could rise, however, as closely-watched contests in Peru, El Salvador, and Guatemala continue to wrap up.

@IHonorato_MPP

Cayenne might speak French, but if it does it no doubt has a Quebecois accent. The home of Wagain spaceflight has for all intents and purposes been treated as Canadian Guiana these past few weeks, as Laureen and Stephen Harper have made it a centrepiece of their respective political campaigns. The former has been propping up moderate incumbents across the Greater Caribbean, while the latter has made a point of rallying Francophone radicals in his whistle-stop Tour du Changement. Many observers are eager to see whose message gained greater currency in this pivotal cultural region, but judging from Cayenne's results, we may not have a definitive answer for some time.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

In Uruguay, the vast majority of absentee and overseas ballots have now been electronically tabulated, helping to decide some of the very tight races in that province. Control of the governor's mansion, currently occupied by Annunziata Spata (LPH), is now projected to have flipped in favor of her opponent, Marta Beltrán Agosta (PB). Spata has some unfortunate company in Senator Cedro Abulafia, also of the Liga Panhispánico, who looks set to lose his seat in the upper house to current Deputy Vicente Maccio (PB), the second such turnover in that chamber.

In the lower house, the situation looks somewhat more stable, with no projected changes as of this time.

PB: 2 (even)
PWT: 2 (even)

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4,2996,338

23:59 SCT || 28 November 2022

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

In Paraguay, there are no statewide elections or ballot measures this cycle, however the province's lone senate seat has now been declared for Braian Bachetta (LPH), two-term incumbent and Chairman of the Agriculture & Forestry Committee.

The province's delegation to the Chamber of Deputies will remain 5-3 in favor of the Opposition, though on the liberal side the Labour and Liga parties have exchanged a seat.

PB: 4 (even)
PNW: 1 (even)
PWT: 2 (+1)
LPH: 1 (-1)

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0:09 SCT || 29 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

More bad news for the Government out of Uruguay, where both a governership and senate seat appear destined to end up in conservative hands. Newly-anointed Wagain Senator Vicente Maccio, standing in the ruins of a historic cotton mill in Western Uruguay, has used his victory speech to call for renewed industrial investment from the Cybusian Empire, in order to 'get Uruguay working again'. That kind of message of economic populism is usually the Liga's bread and butter, but the party's perceived isolationism has hurt them dearly in the polls, bringing down some vulnerable pro-government incumbents with them.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

Having tracked the results out of Chile since 11pm local time, MPP News is now prepared to call several races in the Pacific coast province. With 95% reporting, the governorship is projected to remain in conservative hands, with incumbent Victoria Hellwig (PB) holding onto her seat for a second term.

Both of Chile's incumbent senators, Juan Sebastián O'Meara (PB) and Zarina Paiz (CVA), are expected to hold onto their seats.

The current mayor of Santiago de Chile, Fernando Borbón (LPH), is locked in a very tight race with celebrity property developer Adan Valdebenito (PB). As of 12:45am local time, this contest remains TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

Chile Proposition 37 (Should non-union employees be entitled to the same salary and benefit packages as union workers?) is going to be REJECTED by a margin of 45%-55%.

In the Chamber of Deputies, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 7 (-2)
Apr: 4 (+1)
PWT: 7 (+2)
LPH: 3 (-1)
CVA: 1 (even)

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00:57 SCT || 29 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@IHonorato_MPP

And now we have some (mostly) solid results in from Chile — the 'golden goose' of the evening according to friend of the show Mr. Newton. It's hard to call anything a surprise here, given how close the polling margins have been for the duration of the election season. Some of these races really could have gone either way, but the way this alfajor crumbled, it was Victoria Hellwig who was left standing in the end. I'm hesitant to jump to any conclusions before we hear back from neighboring Argentina, let alone the Santiago mayoral race, but it looks like the downballot was considerably more favorable for the government, actually cutting into the conservative lead for the first time tonight, as Labour and Aprista candidates gained. If I were a betting man — and, as of that Guamian ballot measure, I fully intend to be — I would chalk up those gains (and the failure of the right to work amendment) to the herculean grassroots campaign overseen by Karri Pallas, Labour Minister Franklin Guimarán, and the striking workers who helped to inspire working people to get out the vote. Regardless, Francisco D'Anconia and the broader Cybusian community are well within their rights to be celebrating this result. Their inexhaustible war chest is a big reason why Victoria Hellwig still has a job, overseeing some 19 million Wagains in one of the nation's richest and most developed provinces.

@MTriana_MPP

You can absolutely expect Chile to be one of the central takeaways from this first night, Igor. Following missed opportunities in Cayenne and São Tomé, and turnovers in Uruguay and the Philippines, it looks like the PB is seriously overperforming on the gubernatorial level, if somewhat unevenly from province to province. It's hard not to lay some credit at the feet of the $2.5bn slush fund diverted to each conservative challenger by the Kosarek political machine ($5bn for uphill races) — that's a lot of yard signs.

With a couple more provinces left to report before we break for the night, time will only tell if the PB can match those numbers in the all-important Chamber of Deputies, their only path to Maynard Palace.

[Novo Wagondia]

@IHonorato_MPP

And right when you thought you had bitten your last nail, some new developments out of Brazil suggest it could be some time before we see results there. Because Wagondia's largest province spans three time zones (the latter two covering sparsely-populated Amazonia), a federal judge there has issued an injunction against any further releases, until every polling station has closed, and everybody in line has had a chance to vote. The idea is that someone voting at 10:30 in Acre shouldn't be influenced by the incoming results from Rio or São Paulo, and it could mean that we don't see Brazil's returns until midday tomorrow. By extension, that also means no Federal District results, since the capital region contracts out the services of the Brazilian Elections Office. Already, a couple dozen grey-suited Timmian lawyers have showed up at the state appellate court in Brasília, claiming to represent Bold New Better and other leftist groups. Evidently they have reason to believe the Brazilian returns will favor their side, and so want them to be circulating as long as possible in the national media.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

While we await the outcome of the court battle in Brazil, MPP News is prepared to release results for Argentina, Wagondia's fifth-largest province.

In the Senate, María Camila Chermont (PB), Rigoberto Stauber (PB), and Gerolamo Chicaiza (PWT) are all expected to meet the threshold for re-nomination, with 90% of precincts reporting.

With incumbent governor Isabella Gibran (PWT) not facing re-election until 2024, the only other statewide race is Proposition 15 (Should fracking be banned province-wide?). With a projected margin of 53% to 47%, it looks like the people of Argentina are going to narrowly APPROVE this extraordinary measure.

In the Chamber of Deputies, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 22 (-1)
Apr: 6 (+2)
PWT: 11 (+1)
LPH: 12 (-1)
CVA: 2 (+1)
PNW: 0 (-2)

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02:12 SCT || 29 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

And with Argentina's returns we can safely say we've rounded out the Southern Cone! Like Chile, it looks like the government has held their own here, and maybe even gained some seats when you account for the nationwide migration of supporters away from the PNW. The home of the gaucho has historically been a stronghold for the LPH, and that broadly seems to still be the case. Additionally, youth turnout generated by Proposition 4 — one of the furthest-reaching ballot measures anywhere this election cycle — appears to have buoyed parties across the left, from Labour (which actually gained a seat) to the Apristas, who are settling into a familiar pattern of small but consistent gains across the board. Gerolamo Chicaiza, the first openly LGBT member of the Wagain Senate, and something of a professor emeritus of liberal politics in the region, will be re-elected, as will his two more conservative classmates, taking a potential pickup opportunity away from the government. By my count, we're now at a net conservative seat change of +5 in the Chamber of Deputies, and +2 in the Senate. That's a solid first day showing no doubt, but it will remain insufficient unless the PB can manage to get its turnovers back into the double digits.

We're burning the midnight oil here in Santa Catalina, so with no indication yet of whether the Timmian legal appeal will be successful, we're going to pause our live blog overnight until the first results come in from the Eastern Caribbean, or a determination can be made in Brazil — whichever comes first! Thanks to all of our listeners and contributors who have stuck around through our day one marathon; we look forward to seeing you again tomorrow!

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

Good morning to all our listeners, across the empire and around the world! We're back in Castrofeite for day two of the 2022 Wagain General Election (the gift that keeps on giving, as I like to call it), and already we have some juicy overnight results we're ready to throw your way. It looks like Fernando Borbón (LPH), the Santiago mayor who has billed himself as a sensible middle-of-the-road liberal, will retain his position leading the Chilean capital. The Liga hasn't been performing quite as badly as some had feared (so far), but Borbón's re-election is nonetheless going to be a sigh of relief for the troubled moderate bloc.

@IHonorato_MPP

I'll second that good morning, Mónica, though the days are really starting to blend together at this point. I had a dream the Supreme Court invalidated 200 million ballots because they spelled Wagondia wrong, and we had to start all over from the beginning.

@MTriana_MPP

Not totally out of the realm of possibility, Igor! Speaking of the courts, it looks like those coveted Brazilian returns will be coming our way in around an hour. After that, we have a long slog through the Caribbean, the Andean Belt, and Middle America/Mexico, so things could get a little crowded in here. Best case scenario, we have a winner projected as early as this evening. Worse case scenario, they spelled Wagondia wrong on the ballots and we start again tomorrow morning in the sunny Marshall Islands.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

MPP News is prepared to release its projections from Brazil, with 95%+ of the expected vote in, including the vast majority of absentee and overseas ballots.

In the governor's mansion, it appears that incumbent Anita Rogenmoser (PWT), a key Labour party elder and ally of the Prime Minister, will secure re-election for a third term, overcoming spirited opposition from outgoing São Paulo Mayor Valento Moia (PB).

In the Senate, there are ten seats up for grabs — nine are projected to go to incumbents. For the government, that's Xadreque Faro (PWT), Horácio Piehlmayer (PWT), Gualter Hadida (Apr), Aristides Guardanapos (CVA), and Luan Lopes Aragão (LPH). For the Opposition, that's Micael Ammersbach (PB), Jader Cangussu (PB), Alfonsina Hopko (PB), and Etienne Ausier Malva.

At this time, MPP News is projecting that incumbent senator Tristão Confraria (PB) will not meet the threshold required for re-election. His seat will instead go to Raquel Chegadinho (Apr), flipping that race in favor the governing coalition.

As far as municipal races go, Rio de Janeiro mayor César Tourangeau (PB) is projected to hold his seat. The conservative coalition is having more trouble in the open seat in São Paulo — that race, between Everton Loureiro (PB) and Simona Zeferino (Apr), is currently TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

On statewide Proposition 11 (Should electric vehicles be exempted from provincial automotive tax?), the measure has been APPROVED by a margin of 62% to 38%. Proposition D in Rio de Janeiro (Shall cruise ships over a certain size be banned from operating in Guanabara Bay?) is also expected to be APPROVED, albeit by a slimmer margin.

In the Chamber of Deputies, where Brazil holds a commanding 249 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 113 (+1)
Apr: 39 (+29)
PWT: 64 (-4)
LPH: 17 (-20)
CVA: 14 (+1)
PNW: 2 (-7)

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13:07 SCT || 29 November 2022

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

The Federal District does not have a province-level government, but has nonetheless decided several key races in the past 24 hours. MPP News is prepared to declare Jordana Bonneville (PWT)) to have won a second term as mayor of Santa Catalina, one of the most powerful municipal offices in the nation.

In the Senate, Hana Hashem Cunha (Apr), herself the daughter of a former Santa Catalina mayor, will easily carry the lone seat representing the Federal District.

Federal District Proposition 11 (Should local and regional newspapers be offered a reduced business tax rate?) is expected to be APPROVED by a comfortable margin. Municipal Proposition A in Santa Catalina (Shall the city levy an additional 1.5% Goods & Services Tax to fund additional bike lanes and the Vale Flor and Borborema Mêtro extensions?) is also slated to be APPROVED by voters.

In the Chamber of Deputies, where the Federal District holds 13 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

PB: 3 (+1)
Apr: 3 (+1)
PWT: 4 (even)
LPH: 1 (-2)
CVA: 1 (even)
Ind: 1 (even)

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13:24 SCT || 29 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

We're going to be combing through that update for a while, Igor, but I think it's safe to say there are some immediate takeaways.

@IHonorato_MPP

Absolutely! These latest results are going to come as a relief to a number of parties, whose electoral survival depends on securing a certain share of the Brazilian cash cow. Labour has done decently well for itself, holding on to the nation's most important governor's mansion, two senate seats in Brazil, and renewing Fradique Barrachina's parliamentary lease in Santa Catalina, which is something of a non-starter if he wants to remain Prime Minister. But wow, what a night for the Left. That's thirty additional seats for the Aprista Alliance, courtesy of Lusophone Wagondia. They've been doing well up to this point, but this is the kind of hunter-killer performance Manuel Huezo Mixco and Karri Pallas were hoping for, and one they will need to keep up in order to push Labour out of its majority position. In the Brazilian Senate race, Raquel Chegandinho, a former cabinet member who has aggressively promoted public housing in her campaign, poached a crucial seat away from the conservative Opposition. The liberals are now perilously close to controlling the Senate for the next two years — it's going to take some well-placed upsets down the road to turn that around.

@MTriana_MPP

The Opposition knew it was going to run into rougher terrain in mainland Latin America, but Brazil has pretty much singlehandedly eviscerated their lead in the Chamber of Deputies. By my count the conservative coalition is exactly even with its 2018 performance, so just as far away from that +13 magic number as they were when we started, with only half of the Chamber left to go. The Partido Blanco actually gained in both Brazil and the Federal District, but its junior coalition partner, the right-wing PNW, has been really letting down the side this November.

@IHonorato_MPP

Liga, too, looks like it was roundly spanked in both Brazil and the Federal District. Serviceable returns in Chile and Argentina had seemed to indicate they could survive this cycle, but with a deficit of twenty-five seats already, it looks like it's a two-pony race for leadership of the liberal coalition.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

MPP is now prepared to project federal and provincial races from a number of provinces and territories in the Eastern Caribbean. Beginning with Guyana,

MPP is projecting that Lyron McKenzie (PWT), chair of the Senate Science & Technology Committee, will meet the threshold for re-election. Brahmananda Heer (Apr), the province's sole representative in the lower house, will also be re-elected.

Apr: 1 (even)

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15:34 SCT || 29 November 2022

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

In the Wagain Virgin Islands, voters will return one voting delegate to the Chamber of Deputies. MPP is projecting that race to be a hold for the government, with Dion Pemberton (AAC) cruising to re-election.

AAC: 1 (even)

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438554

15:39 SCT || 29 November 2022

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

In Guadeloupe, a senate race and an at-large seat in the Chamber of Deputies are up for grabs. MPP is projecting that incumbent Senator Jean-Pascal Niruthi (Apr) will be re-elected, as will incumbent Deputy Margaux Abraham (CVA).

CVA: 1 (even)

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467638

15:44 SCT || 29 November 2022

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

A senate race and an at-large seat in the Chamber of Deputies are also up for grabs in Martinique. MPP is projecting that the Senate race will go to Hugo Gonsalves (AAC), following the retirement of incumbent Jonathan Keller (AAC). The chamber seat will be retained by Caterine Côté (Apr).

Apr: 1 (even)

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15:56 SCT || 29 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@IHonorato_MPP

Nothing extraordinary to report so far from this latest batch, which has returned two seats for the Aprista Alliance and one each for the AAC and CVA. The Caribbean is pretty solidly pro-government already, and left-wing activists like Stephen Harper made sure to cover their bases here. Every seat counts at this stage, however, so keep your eyes trained on the Indies.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

As we're waiting for returns to come back from the rest of the Caribbean, some news out of São Paulo, the nation's second largest urban area. With all precincts reporting, it appears that challenger Simona Zeferino (Apr) will capture this open seat, flipping it from the Partido Blanco.

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19:02 SCT || 29 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@IHonorato_MPP

And that's all for our mayoral forecast, folks! Incumbents did pretty well across the board, but São Paulo is undoubtedly a big pickup for the Apristas, who will now lead some 50 million Wagains spread between the empire's two largest cities. A former student union leader who rose to prominence leading protests during the global financial crisis, Simona Zeferino is a rising star in the party, just 32 years old. Her victory over an establishment conservative city hall could spell trouble down the road for cities like Buenos Aires and Lima, also ran by the PB. On the other hand, young and popular incumbent César Tourangeau (PB) sailed to re-election in Rio de Janeiro, continuing a local political dynasty which has rebuffed more than a few challengers (his elder sister, Maia, is a Brazilian Senator who helped to shepherd development of the São Gonçalo Airship Works).

@MTriana_MPP

With Raquel Chegadinho's win in the Senate, that's the second major Aprista turnover in Brazil. Bold New Better and Karri Pallas' organization really put in hours to turn out the vote here, especially in suburban areas where Timmian expatriates voted overwhelmingly in favor of the government. The PB was a little too little, a little too late here in the end.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

MPP is also prepared to release some unexpected developments out of Trinidad & Tobago. In a major upset, the governor's race in that province is projected to go to challenger Akil Amoroso (PB), flipping another executive office in favor of the Opposition.

In the Senate, moderate incumbent Virginia Randhawa (PB) has also secured re-election.

Kavita Wodehouse (AAC), leader of the Afro-Caribbean Alliance in the lower house, has held on to her seat, but the neighboring district looks like it is going to be poached by the Opposition, setting up a conservative hat-trick in the home of calypso.

AAC: 1 (even)
PB: 1 (+1)
PWT: 0 (-1)

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19:34 SCT || 29 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

Another poached governership, this time in Trinidad & Tobago, where AAC incumbent Azelice Brattle appears to have reached the end of her rope. Like many things in politics, we can't totally be sure of the cause, and it's probably a number of smaller contributing factors — financial support from Bright Horizons, falling commodity prices in a major oil producer, or merely a desire for new energy. Whatever the culprit, it's a pretty stunning upset in a race that was expected to go to Brattle by a likely margin. For those keeping score, that's the third conservative coup so far tonight. In the event that the PB falls short of control of the Chamber of Deputies, you can expect them to try and leverage some of these downballot successes, fighting federal mandates in court and pressing for more provincial autonomy in the legislature.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

The Dutch Caribbean has also seen some intense political jockeying. MPP is projecting the following races there:

In Aruba, Incumbent Mirjam Maduro (PB), the government whip and third-most-powerful person in the Chamber of Deputies, has benefitted from name recognition in a comfortable re-election campaign. Also in Aruba, it looks like Municipal Proposition B (Shall all private beaches be converted to public spaces?) is going to be narrowly REJECTED after campaigning by local business groups.

In Curaçao, moderate incumbent Saskia Rietveld (PB) looks poised to hang onto her seat by a hair.

PB: 1 (even)
PWT: 1 (even)

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20:02 SCT || 29 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

MPP is now releasing report from Bolivia, where 90% of precincts are reporting.

In the Senate, Inéz Carizosa (Apr) has been easily re-elected to a second term, benefitting from a strong swing toward socialist candidates across the Andes Region.

In the Chamber of Deputies, where Bolivia holds 14 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

Apr: 6 (+3)
PB: 4 (even)
PWT: 2 (-1)
LPH: 2 (-2)

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21:15 SCT || 29 November 2022

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

Dominican Hispaniola has also released its final results, including for some marquee races.

The incumbent Governor, Cuco Méndez (LPH) was viewed as a potential vulnerability in a year of strong backlash against the centrist Liga. MPP is projecting that he will hold onto the governor's mansion, despite formidable opposition from Humberto León (PB).

A major ballot measure, DH Proposition 19 (Shall hard drugs be legalized on the provincial level?), is projected to be APPROVED by voters, by a margin of 54% to 46%.

The province also elects two senate seats this cycle. Of the two Labour incumbents, Lorenzo Licano (PWT) is projected to meet the threshold needed for re-election. His junior colleague, Fuensanta Aybar (PWT), will not meet that same threshold. MPP is currently projecting that challenger Ana Paulina Fremont (PB) will instead emerge victorious, flipping a further senate seat for the Partido Blanco.

In the Chamber of Deputies, where Dominican Hispaniola holds 13 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

Apr: 1 (even)
PB: 4 (-1)
PWT: 5 (+1)
LPH: 3 (even)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
1,8502,826

21:30 SCT || 29 November 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

After a fresh, fragrant basket of results from Bolivia and Dominican Hispaniola, that leaves only Venezuela left in this time zone. But before we turn to the birthplace of Bolívar, let's unpack this last update.

@IHonorato_MPP

There's nothing that quite gets my heart pumping like new projections, Mónica. Well, that and those strange breath mints that were lying around the office yesterday. But I digress. While DH and Bolivia don't look too abnormal on the surface, I think there's a deeper underlying narrative here. In Bolivia, Liga and Labour fall victim to the same Aprista wave which has materialized elsewhere in the country tonight, as we saw a little bit earlier in neighboring Brazil. In Hispaniola, however, Liga broke even, and Labour actually gained ever so slightly by picking up a seat in suburban San Cristóbal. There is the matter of the senate loss to the PB, but then I would have been surprised by any other result — maintaining double incumbents was always going to be a high bar to clear for the government.

If you buy, at least relatively speaking, that Hispaniola bucked the trend we've seen so far, I think some credit has to be given to Governor Cuco Méndez (LPH), who will be celebrating his re-election with a tall shot of rum right about now. Méndez broke with much of his party last month to endorse the divisive Prop. 19, a calculated shift to the left which put him in line with the majority of Dominicans. That kind of openness to reform, when combined with traditional Liga virtues of faith, family, and fair work for the common man, could be a winning strategy for the LPH going forward, as they take stock of the shellacking they've been handed so far.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

And a sizeable update coming from Venezuela, Wagondia's eighth-largest province.

With two seats up for grabs in the Senate, MPP is projecting that art collector and philanthropist Morgana Brodsky (PB) will secure re-election this cycle. Her fellow representative, mining entrepreneur Virgilio Palafox (LPH), faced stiffer competition, but seems to have eked out a win here.

In the Chamber of Deputies, where Venezuela holds 38 seats, the aggregate results are as follows:

Apr: 6 (+3)
PB: 18 (+2)
PWT: 8 (-2)
LPH: 6 (-2)
PNW: 0 (-1)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
3,4783,780

22:08 SCT || 29 November 2022