A Troubled Area of the World (CLOSED | Kylaris)

[Hacyinia]

A Troubled Area of the World

Hacyinia derives it's name from the Old Pardarian name for "rebellious". [hold for fluff]

4-19-22: Clashes erupt in central Hacyinia over water.
4-24-22: While Choch debates, militias act.
4-24-22: Chirpr thread about warlordism in Hacyinia.
4-30-22: Military to be deployed into Yoloten says the Khan, PM of Hacyinia

[Hacyinia]

---

NEWS|Clashes erupt in central Hacyinia over water.
An estimated eighty people are dead, several hundred are wounded as evacuations are considered.
2022-04-19T 15:20:30Z

A Kizik man overlooks the Bamy river in central Hacyinia. The Bamy’s water levels have begun to drop in recent years and heavily-relied upon tributaries have already dried up.

Conflict erupted in the central Hacyinian region of Yoloten over the past week. Reports from within the region state that the conflict stems from irrigation canals constructed over the winter. The irrigation canals have interrupted both the migration routes of pastoralists returning to spring pastures as well as the water sources used for their animals. The conflict has an ethno-religious component to it, as the primarily Badist Majgar pastoralists have set against the primarily Irfanic Kizik farmers in the area as retaliation.

Water wars have intensified heavily over the past decade as climate change heavily impacts central Hacyinia. Desertification and soil degradation have impacted both the glacial sources of the once numerous rivers and streams feeding into the lowland farms below, as well as the routes that herders have used for years. Increasingly scarce water sources are fought over with increasing regularity as Majgar pastoralists are forced to graze in agricultural areas. Regionally there is potential for the water conflict to grow as downstream recipients in Lavana and Dezevau are eventually impacted.

The recent clashes first began on April 13th. Reports state that a group of Majgar pastoralists were arguing on the doorsteps of a Kizik farmstead when gunfire broke out between the two sides. The fight spread rapidly within the Kaka region as farmers and herders began retaliating against each other for slights both recent and past. Area hospitals quickly became overwhelmed with the amount of wounded, and unconfirmed reports state that some gunmen have broken into the hospitals in order to kill those wounded in the fighting. The fighting have caused several thousand people to flee, primarily to other places within Hacyinia although they have fled to neighboring Zorasan, Lavana, and Dezevau as well.

Reports also state that local Badist and Irfanic religious leaders within the region are exacerbating the conflict. Videos sent to the Coian Monitor show inflammatory sermons, where local religious leaders are urging violence against the opposing nonbelievers. International observers note that this is highly concerning, as the religiously diverse Hacyinia has always been a potential religiously-based conflict powderkeg.

The central Hacyinian government is very familiar with these sorts of conflicts, albeit have been very reluctant in fixing the root of the issues in the Kaka region. As the recent clashes begin their sixth day, the Khan and Prime Minister are reportedly meeting in order to discuss governmental responses - a rare sign of cohesion between the two. The Khan historically has blocked assertive responses from the central government out of concern that it would lead to an eroding of traditional rights and power structures that he benefits from; while the Prime Minister will likely utilize the scale and length of the conflict to forcibly justify a deployment of either the military or federal police in order to stabilize the region with or without the Khans support.

How the Khan and the Prime Minister chose to respond will likely have major impacts both within the country as well as the region. As one analyst has stated to the Coian Monitor, “we may be looking at the first shots of a wider conflict within Hacyinia that has been brewing for some time.”

---

Other news we’re monitoring in Coius:
Lavana - Exclusive interview with Lavanan Premier Laina Keomany.
South Kabu - Moderate councilists claim victory in post-coup South Kabu election.
North Kabu - President expresses "openness to dialogue" with new Southern government.

© Coian Monitor 2022

[Hacyinia]

---

NEWS| While Choch debates, militias act.
Tribal and clan militias seize the initiative in the Yoloten region, raising concerns for further destabilization.
2022-04-24T 08:20:30Z

Ali Rustam, a Majgar militia commander in Yoloten, announces his intentions to defend the majority Majgar town of Zhem via a social media screengrab.

As the Khan and Prime Minister of Hacyinia debate in Choch over the course of action to take in the continued water clashes taking place in the central region of Yoloten, local militia and paramilitary leaders have begun to implement their own plans in the region. Reports state that several of the larger militias have begun to take a more active role in daily affairs, with checkpoints and fortifications being built in roads and villages throughout Yoloten. Law enforcement in Yoloten have begun acquiescing their duties to the larger and better armed militia forces. Some estimate that government forces in the region are outnumbered roughly 10 to 1, with local police units refusing to exit safe areas until further reinforcements are brought in.

Militia and paramilitary forces within Hacyinia are long standing institutions. Both the Khan as well as the Prime Minister are known to be de-facto patrons of their own networks of fighters. The Khan supports the Ulans, who were connected to an attack on a PetroLav refinery earlier this year, while the Prime Minister and the former Equalist party of Hacyinia retain the loyalty of the Agpapakhas. The usual fickle loyalties of various fighters and gunmen have so far been managed with extensive patronage from both the Khan and the Prime Minister.

There is also a large number of independent militias, headed by tribal or clan leaders throughout Hacyinia who can muster anywhere from a handful to several thousand fighters when needed. Most of these independent militias, who run the gamut of ethnic and religious identities, have entrenched themselves in the regions that they call home. With the past two decades of government paralysis due to the breakdown of the dual executive Inju system, the tribal and clean leaders in command of these units have often become the de-facto law in the region that they live in. For much of Hacyinia’s recent history, the tribal and clan leaders have been granted much autonomy to manage their own affairs - something that may be a regret depending on how current events play out.

The independent militias present one of the most challenging aspects to Choch’s plans. With one of the largest internal conflicts since the 1990s currently erupting, there is limited confidence that the central government will be able to respond in any way without consultation or agreement from a swatch of different fighters. Several units have begun to band together in larger, overarching alliances to promote their own interests in the area outside of what the Khan or the Prime Minister may want. Tribal and clan leaders outside of the Yoloten region will be watching how the central government responds to this current crisis and will act accordingly.

In the meantime, with a larger militia presence on the ground, random violence seen in the first few days of the water clashes has slowed in Yoloten. Instead feuds between tribes and clans have been pushed into the forefront, as clashes now take place between several hundred fighters instead of a few dozen vigilantes as previously seen. The Khan and Prime minister have stated that they plan on announcing their plan to curtail violence in Yoloten by the end of this upcoming week, although details have been sparse. It’s been noted that Lavanan foreign ministers have been dispatched to Hacyinia when it was announced that the Khan and Prime Minister were holding a rare meeting between the two, and there is much speculation on the role of Lavana or any of Hacyinia’s neighbors may have in the conflict.

---

Other news we’re monitoring in Coius:
Zorasan - Sanctions targeting Euclean arms manufactuers announced
The Kabus - What next after recent announcements?
Tiwura - The hurdles of a poaching war
Opinion - Minibusses, are they really the improvement we think they are?

© Coian Monitor 2022

[Hacyinia]

[Hacyinia]

---

NEWS|Military to be deployed into Yoloten says the Khan, PM of Hacyinia
After 11 days of continually escalating conflict, Choch finally takes decisive action.
2022-04-30T 08:36:09Z

Members of the 9th Motor Rifle Brigade begin to deploy to Yoloten.

In a joint announcement made in Choch today, the Khan and the Prime Minister of Hacyinia announce that the military will be deployed into the Yoloten region in an effort to “bring stability to the region.” Citing concerns that the conflict could spill into other regions of Hacyinia, especially after news of various clan networks being activated into organized militia units, the military units being deployed to Yoloten will also be distributing various humanitarian supplies and tasked with organizing the internally displaced persons from the conflict.

The delay in making a decision primarily came from a high-level disagreement on what forces to deploy to the region. Reportedly, the Khan insisted on deploying police forces to the region and vehemently did not want to deploy the military into the region. It took several days of compromise in order for the Khan to agree to deploy the military, with the largest concession made to the Khan a restricted size of military forces being deployed into the area.

The Hacyinian military has notably declined in combat effectiveness since the reunification of the country following the Hacyinian Civil War. Conscripts primarily fill the ranks of the military, with most of the professional soldier class having drained out of the country to find work in a private military company over the past several years. The military has suffered greatly from this “brawn drain” - caused by an effectively gridlocked government with the inability to provide leadership or appropriate funding for the forces. Most of the military’s officer corps are based on political or nepotism based commissions, and the ethnically-diverse army often mirrors the same conflicts going on in the country within their units.

From one source within the country who served several years in the military as a conscript, “It’s segregated at every level. You’re in the same unit with everybody else who speaks the same as you, from the same area as you. It’s almost like a gang fight from within the military. I’ve seen other conscripts get murdered in fights because of fights over ethnicity.”

Some analysts are concerned that the deployment of the largely poorly trained and poorly led military may lead to an escalation of the conflict, rather than a deescalation. After gaining information of which troops are being deployed from open source intelligence agents IntelGoose, analysts specifically state that the 9th Motor Rifle Brigade being deployed into the area may be an issue. Most of the troops within the 9th Motor Rifle Brigade are from the Yoloten region and the brigade is largely composed of a mixture of ethnicities that reflect the region. Analysts state that the 9th Motor Rifle Brigade very well may be the smartest choice and could deescalate, or they may even further accelerate some of the violence in the region by joining in the inter ethnic clashes. The Choch government seems to think that deploying locals from the area may be the stabilizing force the area needs.

In addition, the supplying of humanitarian aid into the region will be a welcome relief to many but will do little to address the root causes of the clashes. International observers familiar with the situation have called for the government to destroy the illegally built irrigation systems that have impacted the ability of the pastoralists to source water for their herds. The same NGOs also state that even if the illegally built irrigation systems were all destroyed, the region would still be at a high risk of further water shortages due to increasing climate change.

---

Other news we’re monitoring in Coius:
Zorasan - Propaganda machine goes into overdrive
Behera - Claiming victory, they seek a withdrawal from Yemet
Euclea - Increased calls for Euclean reparations to former colonized states
Opinion - Minibusses are great, actually

© Coian Monitor 2022