Vote ’23: Græntfjaller General Election [open-ish]

[Graintfjall]

It’s 2023, and after years of fractious infighting among shifting coalitions unable to hold majorities in the Thing, Queen Júlíana has accepted the instructions of Prime Minister David Austmannsson to dissolve the current parliament and call fresh elections. Over one hundred parties are running, but fewer than 1 in 10 of those have a realistic chance of winning electoral representation. As GTV launches its Vote ’23 election coverage, the eyes of the world turn on the White Winter Queendom. And the fingers of the world, too, can get involved, should they so wish.

Background:

• Party guide from the last election
• Government “on the brink of collapse” – again
• The Snow fox lives to fight another day
• Græntfjall to head to the polls this summer as polls point to chaos

Table of contents

• Party guide
• PHORCED-ACRONIM system
• Ask an expert
• OOC limits

Party guide

Only parties with active representation in the Thing are included here; for minor parties, their own resources can be consulted for information on their leadership, such as the S-E-X Party’s helpful introduction to their leader ‘Mistress Victoría’ on a special section of their website entitled ‘Madam V’s Palace of Pain’, in which ‘pay piggies’ are invited to donate to campaign coffers, or the Neo-Marxist Workers’ Front’s hastily constructed bulletin announcing themselves after splitting from the New Socialist People’s Brigade, which carries some unfortunate typos having failed to find+replace the new party name from their last split from the Modern Communist Revolutionary Power.

Blue-Greens

Overview: The Blues and Greens were competing conservative movements who united in the 1990s; today they are treated as a singular party and have emerged as the dominant party of the past decade. Blues were royalists whose main issue was restoration of the monarchy, whereas Greens were national conservatives whose priorities were a return to the democratic Thing (Græntfjall’s national parliament) and reclamation of lost colonial holdings. Today’s concerns are more prosaic, mainly being seen as the party of the middle class.

Tentpoles: Center right, compassionate conservatism, liberal conservatism, conservative liberalism, neoconservatism, pro-business, traditionalism, monarchism, neocolonialism. In recent years the pro-business, socially liberal wing has been in the ascendancy, but the party has begun to drift to the right on social issues in response to the rising challenge of the NDF. The “Green” in the name refers to the national ideology, not to environmentalism; in fact, this is perhaps the least green party, funded by Big Oil and pushing climate change denial.

Leader: David Austmannsson. The ‘Snow Fox’ is the great survivor of Græntfjaller politics. No scandal seems to stick to him, whether it’s his wife receiving slush fund payments from an oil corporation to evidence of him trying to suppress a report on child cancer clusters. He has a military background (even here, the extent and nature of his military service has been a cause of scandal, with claims of falsely inflating his credentials and exaggerating his involvement) and was a successful businessman, first as a management consultant before starting his own private equity firm.

Current position: Current party of government with the largest representation in the Thing. Polling in 2nd place. Strongest in suburbs, towns, and rural communities; stronger in the East and South than West.

5 campaign promises:

• Pass a new defense bill representing the largest ever peacetime expansion of military spending.
• Deliver a big middle-class tax cut and commit to a freeze on sales, gas and alcohol taxes.
• Crack down on benefits fraud and antisocial behavior, with new job retraining programs.
• Pursue commercial development of the GANAX Cosmodrome and make Græntfjall a regional spacepower.
• Reduce unskilled immigration through a points-based system.

Left-slate

Overview: The Left-slate is a joint platform of several left-wing parties. The Big Three (Socialist Party of Græntfjall, Social Democratic Party, and Labor Party) joined with more than a dozen smaller parties and signed the Altendalur Convention, under the terms of which they would operate a joint list. Designed to prevent internecine splits fracturing the left vote, the Left-slate has held up remarkably well under the charismatic leadership of Zóphonías Juliusson, but their tenure in government was a frustrating failure and they endure regular bruising attacks from the heavily right-wing press.

Tentpoles: Center-left, social democracy, democratic socialism, labor rights, trade unionism, co-operative values, egalitarianism, green politics, feminism, civil liberties, human rights, gay rights, disability rights, racial tolerance, social justice, internationalism, pacificsm, anticolonialism, pro-immigration. The party as a whole has drifted to the center, despite some outspoken outliers. Increasingly invested in contemporary culture wars where they have taken a strong stance in favor of social justice issues. Despite their left wing status, the party prohibits ex-communists from membership, representing the bitter memories of Græntfjall’s communist past.

Leader: Zóphonías Juliusson. An urbane and cultured national hero, Juliusson is considered one of Græntfjall’s greatest contemporary writers. A playwright and essayist, he was imprisoned and tortured by the communist regime for his advocacy of civil liberties; yet, a man of genuine left-wing convictions, he’s well to the left of his party base on economic issues. Another in the ‘great survivor’ fashion, his tenure as Prime Minister was a disappointing failure but he was the man who opened Græntfjall to the world after years of isolation. Respected on all sides.

Current position: Current largest party of opposition, with the 2nd most seats in the Thing. Polling in 4th place, down from 3rd after suffering a big hit over ‘Bigotgate’. Strongest in cities and university towns; strongest in the West and the North.

5 campaign promises:

• Largest ever expansion of healthcare spending, creating a free-at-point-of-use national health system.
• Increase the top rate of taxation, repeal the corporate tax cuts and close loopholes, and introduce a FTT.
• Reverse all of the Blue-Green welfare cuts and restrictions and add a new inflation-adjusted COLA for pensioners.
• Remove all Græntfjaller military personnel from Montaña Verde and support a peaceful transition of power in Jabal Akhdar.
• Expand support for refugees and end the policy of detaining asylum seekers on offshore hulks.

National Democratic Front

Overview: The NDF have soared to prominence having been considered a maverick fringe just a decade ago. Once known for their signature – and highly unpopular – policy of republicanism, they have dropped their antipathy to the monarchy and instead moved to a populist, nativist, anti-immigration stance that has caught fire among Græntfjallers uncomfortable with the pace of change in a Queendom once frozen in time.

Tentpoles: Right-wing, national conservatism, social conservatism, nationalism, populism, nativism, anti-immigration, protectionism, neocolonialism, anti-Islam, pro-Catholic. They have leaned heavily into the modern culture wars on issues of race and ethnicity, gender and sexuality, and immigration. Their campaign speeches are more likely to feature broadsides against “Cultural Marxism” and “postmodern political correctness” than detailed tax code breakdowns – and their supporters love them all the more for it. Some of their opponents have dubbed them fascists.

Leader: Sigjón Þjóðbjörnsson. Young and charismatic, a middle-class professional and openly gay; Þjóðbjörnsson defies many of the stereotypes one would expect of the leader of a populist revolution. A former advertising executive who became a campaigning lawyer on civil rights issues, he’s worked hard to lead the party to ditch its republican hangups and instead embrace a different kind of politics aimed, not at the monarchy, but at the establishment as a whole. Charming and personally engaging, but also a slick operator whose true motives are the subject of much speculation.

Current position: Minor party in the Thing. Polling in 1st place. Strongest in cities and towns, especially in working class neighborhoods that have seen high levels of immigration. Mainly a Northern party with little reach in the South.

5 campaign promises:

• Net zero immigration within five years, expulsion of all foreign criminals, and heightened border security measures.
• Repatriation tax holiday to encourage business who’ve offshored their operations to return. Tax cuts for low, middle and high earners.
• Crack down on elder abuse, build new quality retirement facilities, and invest in funding for geriatric health care.
• Scrap climate targets, withdraw from the climate treaty, and invest in oil and gas.
• Abolish hate crime laws and pass a strong free speech protection law.

Liberal-Conservative Alliance

Overview: The dominant right-wing party of the past, the Liberal-Conservatives have faded to minor party status, propping up the Blue-Green government in coalition. A merger between the Liberal and Progressive Conservative parties in the 1990s, the Liberal-Conservative government oversaw the neoliberal shock therapy exit from communism. Mass privatizations and slashes to social services led to a backlash that booted them from office, and they’ve never been back as serious political contenders since.

Tentpoles: Right-wing, classical liberalism, market liberalism, libertarianism, neoliberalism, internationalism, liberal conserative, social liberal, pro-business, pro-immigration. They have remained ideologically committed to economic libertarianism in defiance of its lack of popularity with the electorate, and that’s seen them wither from default party of the right to also-ran. They’re also more socially liberal than their Blue-Green partners and bucked over anti-immigration policies.

Leader: Aríaðna Fjölvarsdóttir. The party’s first female leader has unfortunately presided over a historic slide in the polls. A corporate lawyer by training, Fjölvarsdóttir has a reputation as uncompromising and ideologically committed, which would be admirable qualities if her party were not so desperately in need of some compromise and ideological flexibility to get anywhere at all. She is considered the best speaker and wittiest raconteur of the crop of leaders, but her politics aren’t popular enough to make up for some quippy one-liners.

Current position: Minor government coalition partner. Polling in 5th place. Have fallen under the threshold (for electing any representative at all) in several polls. Strongest in towns and rural communities. Still very popular in the South.

5 campaign promises:

• Privatize the social wealth fund, pension system, and healthcare systems.
• Swingeing tax cuts. Establish a commission on moving to a UBI funded through a national sales tax.
• Relax planning laws to build 1 million new homes within ten years.
• Keep Græntfjall out of foreign wars. Pursue new free trade deals but stay out of entangling bureaucracies and alliances.
• Abolish most current gun laws and introduce a robust right of self-defense law.

Progressive Liberals

Overview: While the majority of the Liberal and Progressive Conservative parties merged into the Liberal-Conservative Alliance, a rump minority splintered off into the Progressive Liberals. At the time, that looked foolish: the Liberal-Conservatives were the dominant political party for a decade while the Progressive Liberals struggled to win any seats at all. Maybe they were playing the long con. In the last decade the positions have not quite reversed, but have seen the Progressive Liberals part of two governments while the LCA’s fortunes have dwindled.

Tentpoles: Centrism, radical centrism, neoliberalism, social liberalism, internationalism, feminism, LBG rights, environmentalism, futurism, pro-science. The Progressive Liberals’ status as the centrist party of record have seen them shift from the left – when they were coalition partners of the Left-slate – to the right – when they stayed on in government with the Blue-Greens – and back again. Their ideological fluidity has its detractors, being seen as sellouts and flip-floppers by those they’ve turned against, and untrustworthy allies by those they’ve turned towards.

Leader: Kaija Michaelsdóttir. Most famous in her role as Culture Minister for orchestrating Græntfjall’s Baptism of Fire football victory, Michaelsdóttir has served in a variety of government roles, most notably Foreign Minister, all while keeping a hold of the fragile coalition of her party. She is generally seen as personally on the right of her party, favoring neoliberal economics and resisting the drift to the left. Hailing from a working class background, she was a lawyer before entering politics.

Current position: 3rd largest party in the Thing. Polling in 3rd place. Frequently proving that 3rd is the worst place to finish in politics. Party base reluctant to enter coalition as a minor partner yet again. Strongest among the middle class, students and the young; stronger in the South and East than the West.

5 campaign promises:

• Huge new investment in “green homes, green jobs, green future”, reducing carbon emissions by 25% in a decade and 50% in two.
• Support modest tax cuts if offset by spending cuts. Establish a commission on the deficit.
• Legalize and tax most drugs, fund rehabilitation clinics and treatment centers, crack down on organized trafficking.
• Pass a financial reform law to liberalize banking laws while cutting down on fraud. Give the Central Bank independence.
• Enter the Common Rushmori Community and hold a referendum on World Assembly membership.

Other parties

Catholic Democrats (leader: Skeggi Jörvason)
Once a dominant political force, now relegated to also-rans. Too socially conservative to win center-left voters but too moderate to win right-wing voters. Facing electoral destruction.
New Energy Græntfjall! (leader: Dani Arhippasbur)
Split from the Progressive Liberals over the issue of trans rights. They have the only gender non-binary leader. Left-leaning liberals with climate change, social justice, and refugee rights as priorities.
Socialist Realm (leader: Peter Ásvarðursson)
Rump socialists who did not sign the Altendalur Convention. Generally libertarian socialists, frequently vote with the Left-slate despite decrying them in public.
Independents
The Communist Party has been banned. Some ex-communists run as “independents”, fooling no one, but being too small in number to do much harm.

PHORCED-ACRONIM system

Some of the events occurring during this election cycle will be randomly-generated based on scores of certain matches in the NS Sports subforum, using the PHORCED-ACRONIM system.

PHORCED-ACRONIM system results:

1. The first major scandal of the campaign will involve Zóphonías Juliusson and a hot mic; the first major endorsement of the campaign will be of the Left-slate by a famous footballer.
   Zóphonías Juliusson, leader of the Left-slate, wins the endorsement of NT winger Hanne Heikkisdóttir, but then ends up referring to anti-immigration voters as “ignorant bigots”, comments caught on camera when his aides fail to turn off his microphone.
2. The first big foreign policy issue of the election is going to occur in Montaña Verde* and involve some actual good news.
   Græntfjall’s Development Transformation Fund aid program succeeds in rehabilitating the Verdean leatherback turtle. However, some parties want to cut this aid program. For the subplot involving Montaña Verde, see these stories: [1] [2] [3] [4].
3. The first major domestic policy debate of the campaign will be sparked by a letter to a newspaper from a billionaire concerned with archaeological discoveries.
   Kaalim Taaj Jensson, CEO of Vínland Mótorvirkar, writes the left-liberal paper Vestrænnblaðið urging inter-faith cooperation in the wake of the discovery of a millennium-old Viking boat showing evidence of cooperation and trade with Muslim cultures.
4. The first security alarm of the campaign occurs when a brick is thrown at a far-right politician.
   An antifa activist throws a brick at Dynja Árgilsdóttir, leader of the NO2ISLAM minor party.
5. There’s bad news for David Austmannsson as a scandal breaks involving children.
   Blue-Green David Austmannsson is caught up in a corruption scandal, not for the first time, when he is accused of threatening to intervene to suppress a report on a child cancer cluster linked to air pollution on behalf of a major oil company that have been huge donors to his party.
6. The campaign is heating up with big policy announcements. The Progressive Liberals are proposing a new tax on drugs (including alcohol and/or tobacco) while the Catholic Democrats are advocating for cutting taxes on inheritance.
   The Progressive Liberals want to legalize and tax all drugs, as well as increasing taxes on alcohol and cigarettes to pay for drug rehabilitation and treatment. The right-wing press is outraged. The Catholic Democrats, increasingly a minor party of pensioners, want to abolish all inheritance tax.
7. It wouldn’t be an election without some questionable, controversial, or downright misleading numbers making the headlines. A bus has started driving around Háttmark, promising 350 million krónor will be spent on a national policing strategy by cutting spending on international trade promotion. Similarly, a direct mail flyer is promising to build 40 new statues of famous women and an attack ad charges an opposing party of wanting to build 40 new missile silos.
   “Graphic design is my passion,” says Græntfjaller political operative.
8. The media play a big role in elections. Let’s do a deep dive interview with Kaija Michaelsdóttir where they offer up a big revelation: they’re getting married. Let’s also do an undercover investigation of Left-slate revealing troubling accusations of electoral fraud.
   Kaija Michaelsdóttir is getting married, which given the conservative nature of Græntfjaller society should prove a boon with voters who care about that sort of thing. But that news is likely to be overshadowed by an ambush documentary from right-wing news channel Wolf News revealing ballot-stuffing and abuse of the postal vote system in a Left-slate campaign office in Sóllinen, a neighborhood whose council is already a byword for corruption and scandal.
9. “Events, dear girl, events,” is a famous Græntfjaller saying about politics. Time for a couple of major events to shake up the campaign. A natural event: an earthquake and a human-made event: terrorists win a court case against the government. Meanwhile there is good news, with the discovery of an amazing object in space and bad news, with the collapse of a pension fund.
   The first leaders’ debate sees the parties square off on issues including fracking, deportation of terrorists who might face torture, funding for space travel, and support for collapsed company pensions.
10. Time for another big endorsement, this one for the Progressive Liberals from a group of ex-military officers. Earthquakes and terrorism and financial ruin!? This is all getting a bit serious. Let’s show the lighter side of politics with Zóphonías Juliusson taking a trip on a megayacht.
    The endorsement comes from retired army officers, who like the Progressive Liberals’ plan for dealing with Græntfjall’s aging NBC weaponry infrastructure. But Kaija Michaelsdóttir is more concerned about seeing evidence of the Left-slate linking up with a potential big money donor.
11. You may have noticed a lot of splitters and splinters, and a lot of coalitions and alliances, among the ever-shifting kraken’s tentacles of Græntfjaller politics. Two parties have started to discuss working together: Left-slate and New Energy Græntfjall! while a splinter group has broken away from the Liberal-Conservatives. And let’s not forget the voters in all this. According to the latest poll voters say their biggest issue is health care while similar polling reveals voters to be surprisingly apathetic on the issue of gun control.
    The election is beginning to swing to the Left-slate, who have benefited from the hot summer bringing attention to their big issue, health care. The Liberal-Conservatives, meanwhile are splintering, and their big issue, gun control, appears to be one the voters care little for, compounding their woes.
12. The stress of a long campaign is taking its toll on the leaders, with some strange comments: “I can no longer sit back and allow Communist infiltration, Communist indoctrination, Communist subversion, and the international Communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids.” which aides swiftly blame on heat stroke from the unseasonably hot weather. There’s embarrassment for another leader when they forget which football team they support a situation aides scramble to ameliorate by physically attacking the journalists trying to report on the incident.
    David Austmannsson breaks down during the second debate and begins screeching about communists, torpedoing the Blue-Greens in the polls. His excuses fail to wash and his party seems destined for electoral oblivion. Sigjón Þjóðbjörnsson is rather less harmed after he roughs up a citizen journalist who accuses him of claiming to be a fan of both Gunzlach and their hated rivals Steinaux; his supporters probably think little less of him for the outburst.
13. With just a month to go before the election, there’s time for a couple of ‘October August surprises’, both at home with damaging accusations against Queen Júlíana that they promised favorable treatment to banks and corporations and abroad, in Jabal Akhdar thanks to release of hostages.
    Accusations that Queen Júlíana promised to veto a banking regulation bill do not really stir up the race as no politician wants to criticize her. Making more of a splash is Zóphonías Juliusson, who succeeds in negotiating the release of hostages in Jabal Akhdar.

Commission a poll

The polling firm QuantumWotsits offers polling on a range of topics and using a variety of methodologies, all for very affordable prices. To commission a poll, fill out the following form:

Topic:

1. Overall voting indication
2. Specific policy question (e.g. “Do you support relaxing handgun laws?”, “Should taxes be increased to combat climate change?”)
3. Reaction to current event (e.g. “How does the recent train derailment affect your vote?”, “Does the ongoing rebellion in Jabal Akhdar* make you less likely to vote Blue-Green?”)
4. Custom

Format:

1. Binary (“yes”/“no”/“don’t know”)
2. Numerical (“from 1 to 10, how strongly do you support…?”)
3. Party preference (“first preference”/“second preference”)
4. Custom

Scope:

1. All
2. Party affiliation (e.g. Blue-Green voter, Left-slate member, swing/undecided)
3. Geographic (e.g. Háttmark, Western, rural)
4. Age-based (e.g. 18–25, 30s, 65+)
5. Socio-economic (e.g. homeowners, working poor, uberwealthy)
6. Gendered (male/female only, too few non-binary/other to record accurate results)
7. Religion (Catholic, non-Catholic Christian, Muslim, Jewish, non-religious)
8. Ethnicity (ethnic Græntfjaller, immigrant)
9. Multiple cross-sections are permitted (e.g. 18–25 year old female working poor Left-slate voters; “of voters who chose ‘yes’, what percentage have a college education?”) but the more cross-sections, the smaller the sample size.
10. Custom

QuantumWotsits may reject questions deemed unlikely to garner statistically significant results or fine-tune the specific wording of questions.

Ask an expert

The Græntfjaller news channel will be running a weekly election briefing show, with a panel of its correspondents ready to answer questions for those wishing to know more about the elections.

To ask an expert, fill out the following form:

Question type:

1. Background information (e.g. “What are the current animal cruelty laws in the Queendom?”, “What is the biggest industry in Altendalur?”)
2. Party comparison (e.g. “Compare the policies of the parties on the issue of criminal justice reform”, “Which parties are pro-choice and which pro-life?”)
3. Prediction (e.g. “What parties will do well in rural areas?”, “What would happen if Socialist Realm endorsed the Left-slate?”)
4. Custom

Desired respondent:

1. Entire panel: all the panellists will weigh in, or at least as many as are relevant.
2. Specific panellist: choose the single panellist you want to hear from.
3. Open: don’t specify a panellist, and GTV will task whomever they consider most suitable to respond.

Panellists will ignore frivolous or nonsensical questions.

Propose a question for the Leaders’ debates

GTV’s live debates between the party Leaders will include an option for members of the public to send in questions. If you’d like, you can submit a question. It should be something general that all of the Leaders can comment on, rather than a targeted interview question for just one of them. For example, “can you promise not to raise taxes?” works, while asking “Mr Austmannsson, why did you lie about not raising taxes?” doesn’t.

To send in a question, just submit the question and the name/social media handle of the character who is asking it.

What you may not do

• Declare war, launch a military strike, invade, or otherwise generally staggeringly overreact to an election in a far-off little ice realm.
• Claim to have sabotaged or interfered with the results.
• Introduce COVID or other such pandemics to the country.
  Any such claims will be ignored.
• Make OOC comments. Please contact me by TG or Discord DM for any OOC queries.

*My puppet.

[Nova Anglicana]

The Nova Anglicana Philoxenopolitika Society (NAPS) has three questions, all with a desired respondent of “open”:

Questions:

1. Background information: To what extent do regional divides play a role in Graentfjaller politics (e.g. North/South, party strength in particular sub-national areas, and what historical context informs these divides (governmental investment/persecution, religious differences, etc)?
2. Party comparison: How does each party feel about public religious expression? Are some liberal (anything goes as long as it’s not dangerous), some laicist (nothing permitted that would identify you as a member of a religious faith), some hypocritical (religious freedom for me, but not for thee), or something else? Which party comes the closest to reflecting overall Graentfjaller opinion on this issue?
3. Prediction: To what extent will the Progressive-Liberals’ support for drugs legalisation and entrance into the CRC shift public opinion on the issue (positively or negatively), even if they are not able to achieve it after this election?

[Graintfjall]

“We have some questions from the Nova Anglicana Philoxenopolitika Society.”

A graphic displaying the first question appears: To what extent do regional divides play a role in Graentfjaller politics?

“Manda Michaelsdóttir, chief political correspondent, perhaps you’d like to take this.”

“Certainly.”

A map replaces the graphic; Manda moves over to it and begins drawing colored lines and circles on it using a telestrator.

All credit for the original map to Astograth; all blame for the ugly butchering of it to me.

“Graentfjall has two primary divides: North-South and East-West. These divides have a geographical basis: the South begins at the foothills of the Graentfjaller Alps while the North is a largely flat; the East and West are separated by the course of the Odinsfluss. The East is slightly more populous than the West; the North is much more populous than the South.

“The South is home is both more traditionalist and more libertarian in its ethos. Staunchly royalist, the South harbored the royal family before they were exiled in the early twentieth century, and upon their return before being invited to retake the throne. It’s Catholic country: the further south you go, the more churches you will see, the fewer religious buildings of any other faith. Much more ethnically homogenous and seeing much lower levels of immigration.

“All of this combine to make it generally Liberal-Conservative country, helped by their staunch stance on gun rights as opposed to the vacillation on the issue by the Blue-Greens. Loyalty to the party who invited the monarchy to return and who are seen as encapsulating the libertarian spirit of the Graentfjaller people has persisted even as they’ve lost support in the cities to the north. But as mentioned, the South is much less populous, so the Liberal-Conservative power base is simply smaller than that of any other major party. Royalism and lack of immigration pressures also mean the NDF have not made the inroads in the South that they have in the North.

“The East-West divide is much older than communism, but certainly the 20th century communist regime brought that regional divide into even starker contrast. Through the long 19th century the West came to regard itself as at the mercy of Eastern interests; in particular, industrial bases in the West suffered as a result of colonialism, with foreign goods pouring into Eastern ports and undermining domestic manufacturing. Unsurprisingly, it was from the West that the communists surged to power.

“Over the 20th century, the West became the focus of national investment and political priorities while the East was neglected. And in the cycle of Graentfjaller history, it has now swung back post-communism. East-West divides have been sharpened by two issues. The first is regional investment: this is the issue that led to the collapse of the Blue-Green/Progressive Liberal coalition government prior to the current governing coalition. Those in the West charge that too much funding for infrastructure and economic development is being funnelled to the East at the expense of the West: two krónor for every one króna, is the common (not entirely accurate) figure bandied around.

“The second is the legacy of communism, which is seen as having a rump of support in the West, especially in the university city of Griesberg and in the Southwestern region, a set of flatter plainss that have long been the agricultural heart of the country. Southwesterners are sometimes seen as a separate breed entirely, lacking the rugged mountain individualism of other Southerners or the cultural sophistication of other Westerners. The Southwest is the only region that continues to elect ‘Independents’: ex-communists who, the party having been banned, run as independent candidates. Early polling does indicate they may not return any seats this time around, however; 30 years on from the fall of communism, old allegiances are dying out.

“Religious and ethnic differences are generally not regional. There’s no particular sense of different ethnicities within Graentfjall. Those at the geographical extremes – Southwesterners and residents of the Hofvinger exclave – are seen as quite different, but on cultural lines only. The nomadic Kamdyr people, meanwhile, eschew political representation in the Thing entirely and generally do not vote; attempts at outreach to them from different parties have been mostly unsuccessful and generally involved canvassers being chased out of yurts by unicorn-horn wielding herders.

“So, to summarize. The Liberal-Conservatives are strongest in the South – but no one lives there. The Left-slate are strongest in the West, with their main power base in the de facto Western capital, Altendalur. The Blue-Greens are strongest in the towns and cities of the Center, East, and North. The NDF are surging in the cities of North and East, and to an extent West.”

“Thank you Manda, hopefully that provides some illustration. Let’s move on to the second question.”

A new graphic appears: How does each party feel about public religious expression?

“Arína, if you could take this one.”

“Thank you Brian. OK, so when it comes to religious expression, Graentfjall is probably best known for its ‘burqa ban’.”

A new graphic appears showing the kind of warning signs commonly displayed in shops and public places.

“The Face Coverings Act was described as a security measure when it was passed, but few have any real doubts its true motivation was religious discrimination – including its supporters. The legislation had majority support among Graentfjallers, which rose further following the Grønholm metro station bombing, in which a bomber clad in a burqa left and detonated a pressure cooker device, killing 12 people. Police have been unable to definitively identify the perpetrator despite CCTV capture of them entering the station. However, the bill was blocked by the Left-slate when in government, as they argued it was purely discriminatory.

“Once the Blue-Greens entered government, they fulfilled one of their major campaign promises and passed the bill. Some Progressive Liberals and Liberal-Conservatives voted against, but there were enough votes from minor parties to ensure its passage. The burqa ban is an example of where public opinion and Hvítursalur opinion depart, with a vast majority of voters supporting it despite its difficulties obtaining a majority in the Thing. Unsurprisingly, the NDF are strong supporters of the law, but had little to do with its passage at the time.

“There is not a strong laicist tradition in Graentfjall, and none of the major parties have proposed any more general proscription on displaying religious images. Progressive Liberal leader Kaija Michaelsdóttir recently gave a strong endorsement to the right to wear religious clothing in public, for example, despite her party’s generally secular line on policy issues, following an incident where a Jewish constituent of hers was targeted for a street attack by Muslims based on wearing a kippah. It’s relatively common to see people in all walks of life wearing crucifixes or carrying rosaries.

“Another issue has been the ‘minaret ban’. Graentfjall planning laws require local council approval of buildings over a certain height. Because most councils are dominated by the Catholic majority, there’s been a reluctance to approve construction of minarets attached to mosques. An exception arose in the Sóllinen neighorhood of Háttmark, a neighborhood with an 80% Muslim population that has seen the local council overtaken by Muslim voters. They voted to approve a new six-storey minaret, which was then the subject of an appeal to the planning decision. The government changed the law to permit the city government to veto the planning decision.

“There are a couple of other issues. The NDF are proposing bans on both ritual animal slaughter and infant male circumcision. But these aren’t dividing along quite such partisan lines. For example, the Progressive Liberals, who oppose the NDF on most things, have practically similar policies in their own manifesto. The vast majority of Graentfjallers support a ban on infant male circumcision, but with both the Blue-Greens and Left-slate opposing it, it’s unlikely to make headway in the Thing.”

“Hopefully that clears up some of those issues, thank you.

“And now the last question, which asks for some predictions:”

The final graphic shows: To what extent will the Progressive Liberals’ support for drugs legalisation and entrance into the CRC shift public opinion on the issues?

“OK, let’s take…Mary on the CRC issue, but first, Lilli, if you could speak about the drugs reform measure.”

“Very well. I should say first that this policy is one that’s unlikely to see the light of day. This is something the Progressive Liberals have done before: they announce a big, bold policy as a bargaining wedge for coalition negotiations. When the talks happen, they ‘magnanimously’ drop their signature policy in exchange for progress on the real policies they want or good Cabinet positions. This happened last time around, with the carbon tax they were proposing, and the time before, with their support for mandatory national service.

“Cannabis decriminalization did not have majority support when first enacted, but now it polls much more strongly. Over 80% of Graentfjallers support medical cannabis, over two-thirds support the legality of cannabis for recreational uses, and that figure rises to 90% among under-35s, who comprise most of the Progressive Liberals’ base. So there’s some indication that by enacting liberalizing policy, national opinion will follow in due course. That’s true of other areas, too, such as gay rights. Fewer than one in three Graentfjallers supported same-sex civil partnerships when they were introduced yet now a majority support them.

“Harder drugs will be a harder sell, though. The policy the Progressive Liberals are advocating has multiple aspects, legalization and treatment, and it’s probably on the latter they have a better chance of – if you’ll pardon the pun – moving the needle. If they can win some council seats and advance policy at a local level, through city or metropolitan aggregate councils, then they have a chance to show that some of their more radical ideas such as supervised injection sites and drug purity testing kits can work. Or, I suppose, if they don’t work, to turn the public even further against them.”

“So what is your prediction, Lilli?”

“Honestly my prediction is if the Progressive Liberals win enough seats to enter coalition negotiations, this policy will be the first one out the window. But I’m also predicting, based on current polling, that Isabella Patricksdóttir is going to win the Háttmark mayoral race. That’s not based on drug policy, incidentally, just that the Progressive Liberals have the best record on public transport and that’s been a big talking point in the capital recently. Once in office she’ll have certain powers and can run pilot programs on some of these drug policies. And I think if they’re successful, then yes, we could see public opinion start to shift with them.”

“That’s a pretty equivocal prediction…but thank you Lilli. Mary, the CRC? That’s not something that will have local pilot programs?”

“No, certainly not. Graentfjall’s antipathy to international blocs is a product of having had their sovereignty quashed as part of the former Union, the communist system under which they spent much of the 20th century. A brief flirtation with World Assembly membership ended following the ‘Black Friday’ financial crash precipitated by World Assembly legislation. Graentfjall has also steered clear of the ever changing succession of international treaty coalitions, fearing being sucked into another Great War.

“So the Progressive Liberals’ advocacy of CRC membership is certainly a minority opinion, but they’re a party that needs to stake out some bold outlier positions in order to get media attention and to peel off younger voters from the Left-slate and Liberal-Conservative camps. Much as Lilli suggested, this could be a gambit. Kaija Michaelsdóttir seemed to enjoy her brief tenure as Foreign Minister, and could trade in this policy pledge for a return to the role in a future coalition negotiation.”

“So your prediction?”

“My prediction is this election won’t lead to Graentfjall’s immediate accession to the CRC, but it will bring the topic up for broader national debate. Unsurprisingly, given the anti-immigration mood of the country, it’s the free movement of persons elements of the Orean Accords that could prove the sticking point. The Progressive Liberals have tried to subtly portray Rushmoris as the ‘right kind of immigrants’, but it will still be seen by some NDF supporters as a move to open borders. So I find myself in the strange position of predicting that legalizing heroin might prove an easier policy proposal to influence the public in favor of than joining a regional alliance.”

“Not looking good for those who want to see the Queendom join the CRC, then. Alright, thank you Mary and Lilli, and we hope those answered your questions! Join us next week for another edition…”

[Zwangzug]

Emily Plummer, international politics journalist for the Merano Regency, has two open questions for the GTV panel:

1. For the benefit of us foreigners, can you describe in general how the electoral system works? Is it "each district votes for their own representative and the majority vote-getters form a government"? If so, is this by first-past-the-post, instant runoff, or something else? Are minorities/coalitions common? National ballot lists? Proportional representation? Something else? Apologies if we have missed this amid the football.
2. What issues tend to separate the current Progressive Liberals from the Left-slate? If their candidates were debating each other, what would they focus on as points of contention?

Additionally, she is specifically interested in Jón Fróðmarsson's analysis as a security expert:
3. How are elections conducted physically (electronic ballots, mail-in, early voting?) If there are significant digital aspects, are there concerns about fraud? What safeguards are in place to prevent this? (Obviously our nation is not going to sabotage or interfere with the results, we're a nice democracy. But we care about democratic stability among our technologically-inclined comrades.)

Furthermore, the free people of the Shell Shock Troop Clan send greetings and solidarity to the Verdean leatherbacks. They have neither the international standing nor the inclination to get involved in the whole democratic crisis thing, but would be honored to collaborate with their hispanophone comrades to protect the adorable turtles.

[Graintfjall]

“We have some questions from Emily Plummer of the Merano Regency.”

A graphic displaying the first question pops up: “How does the electoral system actually work?” The question is projected onto the fourth wall, which is made of handwavium and looks remarkably rickety. The panelists share a general state of panic. The one question they’d desperately hoped to avoid has finally been broached.

“Well it certainly does work and has a clear and recognizable system with an internal logic and the results aren’t just made up on the fly to suit the demands of fictional plotlines, oh no, hahaha! Um, perhaps Manda Michaelsdóttir could take this one.”

Manda shoots the chair a death glare.

“Thanks…

“Most of the focus of this election is on the Thing. There are actually many other elections going on, for regional and city councils, for mayors, for municipal water boards… but understandably, it’s the Thing that draws most of the attention.

“The Thing is the unicameral parliament of Græntfjall. During the 19th century, there was an upper house, but this was abolished during the communist era and in the subsequent political reconstitution there has never been an agreement on reconvening any kind of upper house, so it’s just the Thing. Græntfjallers claim the Thing to be one of the oldest parliaments in the world, although the world might disagree on that. Certainly, it’s come a long way from a time when its elections consisted of clan chiefs vying for votes with gifts of whalemeat and horns of ale, and bouts of glíma. Namely, there’s slightly less fighting now.

“Græntfjall’s geography is a challenge for representation. Its population centers are dense and confined to the northern coastal corridor. Last week we talked about how regional divides play a role, and that was very much in mind once communism fell and there was the Grand National Congress to convene a new political order. A purely proportional system would leave vast swathes of the country without any representation, and risked having places such as the Hofvinger exclave or the Southwestern Plains ignored altogether. So the current compromise is aimed at ensuring some direct representation on a constituency basis while having the overall constitution of the Thing proportionally approximate the total vote share. For this reason, the Thing uses parallel voting.

“There are 399 seats in the Thing. Of these, 200 are constituency seats. The country is divided into 200 constituencies approximately equal in population. Voters cast two votes: the first for a constituency representative, using straight plurality voting, first past the post; the second for the remaining 199 list seats, which are distributed proportionally to parties reaching the electoral threshold of 5%. The proportional share uses a closed list, with parties choosing their candidates in order of preference.

“This system has some unusual features compared to both full FPTP voting, or a fully proportional system such as MMP or STV. Because only the list seats reflect the overall proportion, parties can gain majority seat shares on minority vote shares. This has not happened in recent memory but in the early 2000s the Liberal-Conservatives had an overall majority despite winning under 40% of the vote, thanks to their high degree of success in the individual constituencies.

“It also creates a choice for party leadership. Leaders of big parties confident of beating the electoral threshold generally run on the list: that way, they are assured of being returned. By contrast, leaders of small parties unlikely to meet the threshold run in individual constituencies. Some are very popular in their local constituencies. For example, Marie Bastiansdóttir, leader of the Independent Democrats, won an absolute majority in her Hofvinger seat. Yet her party polled under 1% nationally and did not meet the threshold.

“That creates a couple of interesting cases for this coming election. Skeggi Jörvason is running on the list, but the Catholic Democrats are in real danger of failing to meet the threshold, in which case he would not be elected – even though his party might pick up some individual seats. Sigjón Þjóðbjörnsson was elected as a constituency MT when the NDF were below the threshold but has switched to the list this time around (breaking a previous promise not to do so, but it doesn’t seem to have hurt his party’s polling numbers!). Aríaðna Fjölvarsdóttir by contrast has switched from running as a list candidate to a constituency candidate, again because her party is in danger of falling below the threshold, despite projections to do reasonably well among the constituency seats thanks to their domination of Southern constituencies.

“The system does allow minor parties who fail to meet the threshold a chance at gaining representation, as well as some independents, but it has led to extremely tenuous coalitions in recent years.”

“Thank you for the detailed answer, Manda, we hope that answered the question and we apologize for the fact that we’re now actually going to have to work out the real numbers here rather than just bullshitting our way to whatever fits our RP arc best WHOAH is this thing on!?

“Anyway… question two.”

What issues tend to separate the current Progressive Liberals from the Left-slate?

“Hmm, I think we might draw from a couple panelists here. Let’s start with Jingyi as I think we’d agree economic matters take primacy.”

“They do. Obviously, every country’s politics are unique, and the Græntfjaller system can be opaque to foreigners. In many countries, anyone calling themselves a “progressive liberal” would be part of the “left” group. So something we should note is that although you asked me to speak on economic matters, this is the first election where non-economic matters have really come to the fore. Usually: it’s the economy, stupid. The brand of culture wars politics being pushed by the NDF is fairly novel, and it’s making the Left-slate and Progressive Liberals seem closer together – in opposition to said politics – than they perhaps are in reality.

“So yes, economics. The Left-slate is a coalition of left-wing parties including outright socialists, social democrats, and others. The Progressive Liberals by contrast are a splinter group from the right wing libertarian party, the Liberal-Conservatives. Certainly, that splinter has moved well to the left ever since, but there’s still a fundamental philosophical disagreement about the role of the state. One way it’s been expressed is that while the Liberal-Conservatives believe in a nightwatchman state, the Progressive Liberals believe in having a day shift, too – while the Left-slate just want to turn the lights on!

“When they were in government together, one of the bigger sticking points was the roll of organized labor. The Left-slate are strongly supportive of – and supported by – unions, whereas the Progressive Liberals wanted to dismantle collective bargaining agreements for government contracting, make some educational reforms opposed by the teachers’ unions, and launch a corruption inquiry into the dockers’ union, all opposed by the Left-slate. Yet the two parties more or less united once in opposition in opposing the Blue-Green government’s collective bargaining reform laws. That follows a pattern of them finding it easier to work together in opposition than once in government.

“Similarly, the eventual sticking point for their coalition proved to be the regional infrastructure development bill. The Progressive Liberals wanted to privatize aspects of regional transport infrastructure, which was opposed by the Left-slate. The final straw was the issue of conductors on trains. The Transport Services Union demanded that all trains have a second conductor on to make sure the – now largely automated – doors were properly closed; the Progressive Liberals (and rail operators) called that make-work and said it wasn’t unneeded. There was quite a spat over the issue.

“The recent embrace of Modern Monetary Theory by the Left-slate has moved the two parties further apart, because the Progressive Liberals are trying to portray themselves as the party of deficit hawks. Similarly, the Left-slate have a platform of ‘democratizing’ the Central Bank, including having representatives of organized labor and farm workers on the Board of Governors; by contrast, the Progressive Liberals want to grant the Bank independence entirely. The Left-slate want to raise corporation tax, the Progressive Liberals to cut it. And so on: it’s just, this election isn’t being fought on these issues.”

“Mary, on the international front?”

“Here too there are differences. They’re both definitely on the internationalist side, supporting the CRC and even WA membership in the long term. However, they have rather different takes on certain issues currently ongoing in the Græntfjaller Commonwealth. In Jabal Akhdar, the Left-slate are calling for an immediate withdrawal of all Græntfjaller forces from the country; the Progressive Liberals argue that would destabilize the country and a “peacemaking force”, a phrase that’s been the subject of some withering satire from Zóphonías Juliusson, kept on.

“In Montaña Verde, the Left-slate want an immediate end to the sending of “agricultural advisors” and an inquiry opened into the disappearance of President Santángel. The Progressive Liberals have referred to the situation as “concerning” but have said the country’s first priority should be rolling back international communism. The Progressive Liberals support continuing to send arms shipments to the Ha’Yaroki government while the Left-slate want to suspend all arms shipments and seek a two-state solution.

“But, echoing Jingyi, these international issues don’t feature highly on the list of things voters are concerned about at the moment.”

“Finally, Arína, maybe you can offer some perspective on the social side of things.”

“OK, so even there, the two parties certainly have their differences. The Left-slate have not followed the Progressive Liberal lead on drugs reform, for example. But criminal justice reform was an area of cooperation when they were in government together, passing policing reforms as well as reforming the justice system. They’re generally in the same camp on gay rights, supporting the introduction of same-sex marriage, adoption and IVF access.

“The biggest departure is probably the question of immigration. The Left-slate have drifted to the left and the Progressive Liberals to the right: having once worked together to increase student visas, they now find themselves quite far apart with the Progressive Liberals arguing for, for example, confiscation of valuables from immigrants to pay for detaining them and voting in favor of the Hulk program (whereby asylum seekers, rather than being allowed onto the mainland, are detained on off-shore barges) while the Left-slate advocate a total amnesty on illegal immigration and steep increases in quotas.

“How genuine this drift apart is remains to be seen. The country as a whole is dragging way to the right on these issues and the Progressive Liberals, many of whose members have pro-immigration backgrounds, may just be following the political tide. Perhaps in government they could work together; certainly in opposition, if a NDF-Blue government does form, I’d expect them to unite in opposition.”

“Thank you all three and hopefully that added some clarity, we’ll try to bring more detail on the party platforms as the election progresses.

“Final question:”

The question appears: [i]How are elections conducted physically?

“Jón, if you would.”

“This is a bit of a simpler one: Græntfjall does not use electronic voting. Two small pilot programs were trialled, one in Háttmark, one in a rural Southeastern constituency, and neither led to any increase in voter turnout even among young voters. Additional concerns about audit trails – from a country obsessed with krakens, the conspiratorial mindset can be rather strong – have prevented the pilots being repeated. I wouldn’t say there’s much public pressure in favor of electronic voting at this time and of the major parties, only New Energy Græntfjall! - who are barely a major party at that – advocate for it.

“Physical, in-person voting remains the norm, but postal voting has been growing in popularity. Originally introduced to make voting easier for residents of remote rural constituencies, it’s actually the Norther cities where it’s used most now. Particularly popular among the elderly, but also among ethnic minorities, and it’s in the latter case where controversy has started to arise, including a recent undercover video purporting to show Left-slate activists running a “ballot mill”.

“How accurate those concerns are has become something of a political question in itself, but if I try to keep to an objective answer, there have been very few prosecutable cases of electoral fraud in recent years, yet at the same time it’s the subject of constant bubbling innuendo. The government seems to regard its elections as secure, and has even dispatched election advisors to Montaña Verde to assist in their forthcoming elections!”

[Zwangzug]

Thank you for your answers!

Of our footballers in Græntfjall, we can confirm Hans "Not That One" Larsson has reblatted supportive messages for the Left-slate candidate in his district, he seems to believe vaguely nice and warm-hearted things about labor unions and withdrawal of forces. Thomas Quinnipag's leanings are harder to pin-down, but based on acerbic one-liners with too many diacritics we are guessing he probably supports the Progressive Liberals' green agenda and shares their weariness of New Energy's culture war extremism. It is very unlikely he will ever admit to this publicly because a. last time one of our minor footballers tried expressing these opinions Qusmo caught on fire, b. he prefers to communicate with hand gestures on the field and dead-eyed stares outside it, but he's a goalie, that's probably normal.

[Graintfjall]

Posted on the Græntfjaller political news blog ElectionBONK.

All the news that’s fit to BONK
Constituency Profile: Vummersun


Vummersun is the northernmost constituency in Altendalur, Græntfjall’s second city and capital of the West. Encompassing much of the Port of Altendalur and the surrounding industrial district, down to the Junction of a Thousand Honks, the notorious traffic interchange connecting 18 major roads, it’s resolutely industrial and working class despite the modernization and gentrification happening further south in the city’s suburbs and satellite towns.

Vummersun could be a bellwether of the NDF’s ability to succeed out west. It has in the past been one of the safest Left-slate constituency seats, at times returning MTs with over 50% of the vote. It’s the kind of white working class neighborhood that’s seen a lot of immigration and ethnic stratification, and thus ripe fodder for NDF to exploit divisions as they have in Laafjörður and Háttmark. But the NDF has generally been an Eastern force: if they penetrate the Western heartlands of the Left-slate bloc, the Left are really in trouble – or will Vummersun be the Red Wall that marks the territorial limits of NDF support?

The biggest issues in recent years have been the price, supply and quality of housing, with very little new building undertaken other than luxury waterside apartments priced far out of the range of the average dock worker. Old communist-era blocks remain the norm, with increasing problems with leaking pipes and poor insulation that Altendalur City Council’s stringent rent control policies, enacted in defiance of the national government’s abolition of rent control, have done nothing to ameliorate with landlords disincentivized to undertake repairs.

According to the Left-slate, the main problems are rich developers trying to gentrify the area by driving out existing tenants and unscrupulous landlords exploiting inadequate renter protections; current MT Júlíana Kjarvalsdóttir is an advocate of the “Renters’ Bill of Rights” legislation that stalled in the last Thing. She also blames the welfare reform bill’s cuts to subsidized housing support schemes. Ólaf Mikkaelsson, running for the NDF, predictably blames a different scourge: immigration. He charges that businesses are happy to hire immigrants on poverty wages, the immigrants are willing to sleep in cramped accommodation unfit for families, and the cycle perpetuates.

Vummersun is, in truth, not a swing constituency. It’s very unlikely to fall to the NDF on election night. The question is more what percentage of the vote Mikkaelsson can pick up. Blue-Greens have never managed any success here and if there’s a Progressive Liberal voter in the entire district, they’ve left by the end of this sentence. If Mikkaelsson can seriously cut into the Left-slate lead, it’ll be a sign the NDF can become a truly national party and challenge for a majority, maybe not at this election, but at the next. If however he sinks without a trace, it’ll be a sign that their message doesn’t place out West and a retooling is needed.

The BONK Prediction: Left-slate hold.

[Graintfjall]

Posted on the Græntfjaller political news blog ElectionBONK.

All the news that’s fit to BONK
Constituency Profile: Árberg South

Árberg South is geographically one of the largest constituencies in Græntfjall. It’s historically been one of the safest Liberal-Conservative holds, a deep yellow in every free election: that it’s in play at all reflects just how badly that party is doing. But it also points to some of the tensions transforming the old certainties of traditional mountain communities. According to the tabloids, Árberg South has recently seen the influx of a massive wave of refugees. That rather depends on one’s perspective: do 120 people really count as a ‘massive wave’? In one of the most conservative, traditionalist constituencies in the country, perhaps they do. Burning down their housing center after complaints over the conditions did little to further endear them to the locals.

Politically, Árberg South is a royalist base, and was briefly home to the royal family before they were exiled. That complicates matters for the historically republican NDF: despite all their efforts to rebrand, they still have trouble gaining traction in mountain communities with long memories. But the floundering Blue-Greens, architects of the refugee scheme, are no better placed to exploit anti-immigration sentiments. As for Left-slate, anyone even attempting to plant a banner or rockery sign down here would be swiftly chased off.

That leaves the political calculation a little complicated. Ulrich Ljósálfsson is running as a Conservative-Liberal, a splinter candidate against the current MT, Liberal-Conservative Katrína Valmarsdóttir. Confusingly, these two may end up splitting the vote so much as to let in Hólmþór Sæþórsson, a Progressive Liberal – the original Liberal-Conservative splitters – if he can garner enough left and moderate votes (approximately none of which will be garnered by the non-existent Left-slate campaign in the South).

The BONK Prediction: Confusing mess. But probably just a Liberal-Conservative hold.