HISTORIC CENTRAL AUSIANA FLOODING INUNDATES REGION AND KILLS THOUSANDS
The population center of Ramrahi was one of the hardest hit flood zones in Tasiastan, near the Barangadesh border.
JALJUR -
Historic flooding in the Central Ausianan nations of Tasiastan and Barangadesh has caused widespread destruction and death, with CCA humanitarian estimates putting the death toll at nearly 1,200. Experts believe that the toll will climb as rescue and relief efforts begin to pour into the region. After a long drought in the region, sudden precipitation in the Archismann mountains caused major flash flooding in the Takhsh River Basins, swamping into some of the most densely populated cities on the continent. The capital and largest city of Tasiastan, Jaljur, with its population of more than 16 million people, was spared the majority of the flooding. While the city did experience higher levels than normal, levees and walls along the Takhsh River were not breached. Further down river, however, especially in the nation's third largest city of Ramrahi (6 million people) was hit with devastating force. The neighboring nation of Barangadesh also saw excessive flooding along river settlements and even in the capital of Daccas. Daccas, also known as Dhakca, is also one of the world's most populated cities with more than 12 million people.
The Zamastanian State Department has called the flooding "one of the worst natural disasters to hit Central Ausiana," with Secretary of State Jessiah Vallotis saying "Zamastan stands behind the people of Central Ausiana and we will provide any and all assistance we can to help alleviate the region's suffering." President Moreau ordered 2,000 Zamastanian troops stationed with CCA peacekeepers in neighboring
Pekastan and
Jaginistan to travel to Tasiastan to assist in humanitarian and relief efforts.
The floods were driven by rain. The rainfall anomaly map published by ZSA showed unusually intense monsoon rains attributed to the heat spell which preluded it. On 21 November, the Tasiastan Meteorological Department cautioned that urban and flash flooding could occur from November to January in the north parts of the country. The same department recorded above-average rainfall in the months of October and monitored the flood wave progression. Discharge levels were comparable to those of the floods of 1988, 1995, and 1997. The monsoon rainfall of 2010 over the whole country was the highest since 1994 and the second highest during last 50 years. Much of the water and the speed of the flood's rush was progressed by unstable soil and glacial removal, which many experts are attributing to climate change.
An analysis by the Zamastanian agency assisting relief efforts analyzed conditional instability, moisture flux, and circulation features and the results support a persistent increase in conditional instability during the premonsoon phase, accompanied by increased frequency of heavy rainfall events. The increased convective activity during the premonsoon phase agrees with the projected increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events over northern Tasiastan. Large-scale circulation analysis reveals an upper-level cyclonic anomaly over and to the west of Tasiastan–a feature empirically associated with weak monsoon. The analysis also suggests that the anomalous circulation is not sporadic but rather is part of a long-term trend that defies the typical linkage of strong monsoons with an anomalous anticyclone in the upper troposphere. Another expert attributed the cause of the exceptional rainfall to "freezing" of the jet stream, a phenomenon that reportedly also caused unprecedented heat waves and wildfires in
Constantio earlier this year.
Congressional Hall has approved a relief package of Z$70 million, with President Moreau requesting that number to be doubled. CCA General-Secretary Katherine von Wettin of
Drambenburg additionally called on member states to contribute to the relief and humanitarian mission. About one in 9 Tasiastanis — 10 million people altogether — have been affected by the flooding, according to estimates from the Tasiastan government. About 1,500 people are feared dead, and at least 2 million are homeless, according to CCA estimates. The country's second-most populous province, Ramrahi, was also one of the worst-hit areas. Relief agencies and the government are still tallying damage to millions of acres of farms. Now, experts worry about disease spreading. Up to 2.5 million children are at risk for dysentery and other diseases caused by drinking dirty water, warned the CCA. The CCA is also worried that a cholera epidemic could spread, as a few cases have already been detected and many villages have no health care.
The power infrastructure of Tasiastan has also taken a severe blow from the floods, which damaged about 10,000 transmission lines and transformers, feeders and power houses in different flood-hit areas. Flood water inundated Ayan Hydro power. The damage caused a power shortfall of 3.135 gigawatts. Black death diseases (e.g. gastroenteritis, diarrhoea, and skin diseases) due to lack of clean drinking water and sanitation pose a serious new risk to flood victims. The first documented case of cholera have already emerged in the town of Tora, striking fear into millions of stranded flood victims, who were already suffering from gastroenteritis and diarrhoea. Tasiastan and Barangadesh also face a malaria outbreak.
The CCA Peacekeeper Organization reported that unexploded ordnance, such as mines and artillery shells, had been flushed downstream by the floods from areas in Tasiastan's south, the site of violent fighting in the 1990-92 civil war, and scattered in low-lying areas, posing a future risk to returning inhabitants.
Current estimates say that floods submerged 17 million acres (69,000 km2) of Tasiastan's most fertile crop land, may have killed upwards of 200,000 livestock and washed away massive amounts of grain. A major concern was that farmers will be unable to meet the fall deadline for planting new seeds in 2022, which implies a loss of food production in 2022 and potential long term food shortages. The agricultural damage is estimated to be more than 2.9 billion dollars, and included over 700,000 acres (2,800 km2) of lost cotton crops, 200,000 acres (810 km2) of sugar cane and 200,000 acres (810 km2) of rice, in addition to the loss of over 500,000 tonnes of stocked wheat, 300,000 acres (1,200 km2) of animal fodder and the stored grain losses.
President Haajid Swati of Tasiastan said the recovery may take billions of dollars in the long term, but so far the CCA is calling for less than half a billion in relief. Fundraising has been sluggish. The country is promised Z$212 million in committed pledges and another Z$140 million in uncommitted pledges has been raised.
"These unprecedented floods demand unprecedented assistance," Swati said. "We appreciate deeply the amount of international aid we have received. The flood waves must be matched with waves of global support."
TASOULAS REGIME TARGETS REBEL STRONGHOLD OF TIRIKAN
The nearly two-year long civil war in Syraranto saw a violent assault in its most recent flare-up near the rebel-held stronghold of Tirikan, where the war began in June of 2020.
NORASA - The civil war in
Syraranto has seen a series of brutal flare-ups in spasms of violent clashes in the nation's embattled west, as the regime forces of Kyriakos Tasoulas bombard the rebel-held stronghold of Tirikan, which gained notariaty in the summer of 2020 as the starting point of the conflict. The long battle for Syraranto's fifth-largest city, and most prominent of rebel bases, Tirikan, has entered what the Zamastanian State Department says "could be a decisive phase in the future of Western Nortua." Divided between government-controlled east and rebel-held west for the past year, fighting in the city has significantly escalated since rebel districts were encircled in October. There are four, key reasons why the battle of Tirikan is so important.
For one, Tirikan is a key hub in the west of the country, just 30 miles (50km) from the
Cylata border. As a result, control of the city delivers more than just prestige. The most important prizes are supply lines. Armies wither without food, fuel, and weapons. In January, the Syraranto government made a breakthrough when air strikes helped it cut the so-called Izaz corridor, a vital rebel conduit that ran south from the town of Oilis down to Tirikan itself. Syraranto forces followed this up by taking high ground over a key road into the rebel-held east of the city, further choking off this lifeline.
When the government seemed to have boxed in its opponents, a rebel counter-attack in a key government-held district of the city suggests that the rebels might not only fight their way out, but even impose a counter-siege on the government-held east. Then, in February, the ceasefire took hold. Fighting stopped. This allowed time for both sides to garner their strength and regroup, and the long peace from Feburary to October resulted in significant build up. A city that for so long seemed likely to stay in the hands of the rebels is now very much in contention.
A second major factor in the battle for Tirikan is that while the strategic contest may be over supply lines, but the biggest stakes are humanitarian. An estimated 250,000-300,000 civilians have been trapped in rebel-held parts of Tirikan since early October. The Syrarantoan government has proved willing to conduct indiscriminate aerial bombings in civilian areas, while rebels have also mounted attacks, largely by artillery, in populated areas. Hospitals have suffered especially badly, compounding the humanitarian crisis. If the rebels build on their gains at the city center by seeking to blockade government-held areas, it could put another half million civilians in a precarious position. The skyrocketing price of food reflects this fear.
The CCA and others have responded coolly to four
De Yuaneze-backed "humanitarian corridors" to allow civilians to leave, fearing that these might simply facilitate intensified attacks on those who remain. The rebels' gains now mean that they are even less likely to accept Syraranto regime proposals or respect them if implemented. And as air strikes and artillery strikes increase and western Tirikan comes under more pressure, civilians are likely to bear the brunt. This might eventually affect the
Constantio-bound refugee flow.
Thirdly is that the armed opposition in Tirikan includes nearly two dozen factions, grouped into different coalitions. The largest and most powerful of these coalitions is the Free Syraranto Army, which is backed by
Artaska and
North Icadania. However, another group is Jabhat Aham, which was until mid-2016 known as Jabhat Asra. It is a front for the terrorist group al-Fijar in Syraranto, and changed its name in order to distance itself from its notorious parent organisation, strengthen its alliances with other rebels, and avoid being targeted by CCA counter-terrorism operations, which had agreed to work against it. The fear now is that terror groups, like al-Fijar and its extremist spearhead, are emerging from Syraranto's battles with power and prestige, having once more proven highly effective on the battlefield.
This is a headache for SBU countries, which have backed more moderate but less proficient fighters, but good news for other rebel supporters like Drambenburg and
Beleroskov, who have embraced harder-line rebels and even islamists. Meanwhile, Tirikan as a whole is sandwiched between so-called Free State (FS) to the west and government-backed groups to the north-east. These groups have obviously clashed with each other, and both have fought anti-regime rebels like Jabat Aham. If moderate rebels are defeated in Tirikan, terrorist groups might take advantage by seizing new territory. This would alarm and provoke SBU nations, which strongly oppose Tasoulas and Islamist insurgent groups.
The fourth important factor leans completely on the presence of nuclear weapons in Syraranto and Tasoulas' multiple threats made against the Sotoan Basin Union, which garnered international condemnation and multiple announcements of mutual defense if Tasoulas attacks an SBU member state. Zamastan specifically has made the most assertive motions for mutual defense, having moved a carrier group into the Sotoa Sea to monitor the threat. If the regime of Tasoulas retakes Tirikan, it may embolden the regime in its capability to stand for itself, and Tasoulas has proven to take rash and seemingly impulsive decisions following high notes for his government's achievements.
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