Shadow Over Gael [OOC] [TWI]

[Aruia]

alot of what i am reading kind of mixes up for me. Balnik can you post a summary of everything that was agreed on so far in the thread?

[Dormill and Stiura]

I usually wouldn't post my immediate drafting plans to the OOC, but I figure I should explain my delay in getting the next post out and ask for some pointers as to how I should structure this post. I should be able to work on it at some point throughout tonight and early tomorrow, but my weekend is covered by work and Monday I have a dentist appointment so I should be able to get a post by Tuseday if I push myself. Below are my current drafting notes for the post.

Drafting Ideas: This takes place within a few hours of the fight between Valeris and the Balniki agents. Valeris intends to seek out his brother Ioraelin, the Snake of Roendavar. While Faelian and Roux are asked to investigate, already identifying Valeris from CCTV, Ioraelin is recalcitrant and does not join the Doraltic agents as they meet with local police (allows for a secret meeting set-up). When reaching the club, which at this point has already been cleared of half its patrons; the rest being interviewed by police, the Doraltic agents take stock of the situation and start asking the police about the situation. Given that the Bureau isn’t meant to be publicly operating in Roendavar, both will use their cover names to gain information, most importantly that three individuals were identified leaving the room where the fourth was shot dead. The police will give an incomplete record of the events but won’t allow either of them down into the catacombs to investigate further, turning them away in front of the patron statue. As they leave, they get a call from a local contact that puts them on the trail of two bruised-up Balniki wandering the streets adjacent to the Balniki hideout.

---

Scene 1: Roux is asleep at his Bureau-given apartment when he is awoken by a call from Faelian to come down to Oreis Ninth Club to respond to the recent altercation.
Scene 2: The two agents arrive at Oreis Ninth to see it already swarmed by police, the Balniki agents killed several more patrons in their effort to escape, leaving a trail of bodies and blood leading back to the statue of Oreis. Undercover as Docaria Police Detectives, Roux and Faelian sneak their way past the police barricade and explore the club in more detail.
Scene 3a: The music is still playing, Roux and Faelian discuss what could have happened here and why, at first assuming a terror attack by local cultists before being interrupted by a police sergeant, who tells them the story as the police understands it. While the story confirms their initial bias, Roux points out that this kind of act is atypical of previous attacks both in Roendavar and elsewhere, most importantly is the low body count but the relatively high number of non-threatening injuries.
Scene 3b: When Roux presses the sergeant for more information, he pushes back against them, claiming that the case is going to be handled as a domestic terrorism incident. When Faelian steps in and asks for access to the now visible catacombs entrance, he is also rebuffed by the officer, who claims that only those directly accompanying the police chief and the head detective were allowed inside.
Scene 4: As the two agents start to leave, Roux notices a spent shell casing on the floor. Using the frame of his disguise glasses, he grabs the case and puts it in an empty dime bag he found nearby (yes, this will mean that it is contaminated and probably won’t produce useful DNA evidence)
Scene 5: Just as the pair reach the surface, Faelian is alerted by a text about the two Balniki agents loitering around the Candy Shop.

[Balnik]

alot of what i am reading kind of mixes up for me. Balnik can you post a summary of everything that was agreed on so far in the thread?

Sure, what do you mean? The OOC or the IC? Could you elaborate?

[Aruia]

alot of what i am reading kind of mixes up for me. Balnik can you post a summary of everything that was agreed on so far in the thread?

Sure, what do you mean? The OOC or the IC? Could you elaborate?

The OOC

[Balnik]

Sure, what do you mean? The OOC or the IC? Could you elaborate?

The OOC

Balniki agentxs go into roendavar to mess some stuff up. Dormill is also there and catches on to the Balniki presence. Dorm and Roen team up against Balnik whos looking for a macguffin of some sort. Bel enters at some point.

[Roendavar]

Hello, my Gael neighbors.

I have been thinking about this role-play and I think one glaring problem that we have is that there is no set end goal or conclusion yet, thus, we don't have a foundation for how the story can go and how other countries aside from Dorm, Balnik, and me, can enter without messing up the role-play too much. So, I've tried making an outline or a plot foundation and tell me what you all think.

First, let's discuss what each Gael nation has to offer. I am, in no means, an expert in our countries since I haven't read all our factbooks, but here's what I think so far. First, my own, Roendavar is the epitome of the "underground", a nation where everything is hidden, possible, and grand. In this kind of role-play where we're focusing on espionage and an "underground war", Roendavar is a good setting for it, however, not the sole setting for this. Roendavareil agents, on the other hand, are known for their calculating, cunning, and manipulative methods. Practical, we are not, but efficient and granstanding, we are. As for Balnik, we have seen that they're a force to be reckoned with. They're a powerful nation capable of handling its own against multiple countries in Gael and their spies are no different. While we don't want to put terms like "good or bad" or "protagonist or antagonist" in this role-play, Balnik serves as a driving force for the other countries to react, which makes them integral. Dormill and Stiura, from what I've seen, is a pragmatic nation. Based on the previous posts, they act on the good of Gael, albeit, not without their own interests thrown in. Dorm is a balancing factor in this role-play, and based from how the posts are writen, will continue to be so.

Now, for countries that haven't participated yet:

Ainslie, in my opinion, is the true definition of neutrality in Gael, thus, can actually serve a far better purpose in this role-play. We need a nation that can serve as a mediator, some form of force that would try and find out the right in the midst of Gael's chaos. Strong emphasis on laws and respect of sovereignity is a good place to have the underground war of Gael to fall back upon if it needs security. Defectors that would come to Ainslie and slowly shed light on the underground war? Independent investigators that would reveal the tensions in Western Gael?

Thromsa, in this case, can be seen as a similar force. It has a strong emphasis on laws and sovereignity and can be a fall-back option for states in Gael. However, Thromsa has obligations with Roendavar and the NISC, which might make it lean in favor towards Roendavar and Dormill and Stiura. While Thromsa maybe can't help in the underground war in terms of being on the ground (I mean you can if you want to), maybe they can offer legitimacy in NISC members' actions against Balnik? If Roendavar and Dorm are fighting underground, Thromsa can take the fight to the international stage. I don't know what Thromsa can do in that regard but it's an option.

Belantica, in what I've seen, is another pragmatic state. Their allegiances are fluid and depends on who can offer them the security that they need (please correct me if I'm wrong). OOC, they've already expressed ties with Dormill and Stiura, Roendavar, and Balnik, which puts them in the question of who to side to in this role-play. This fluidity, again, is actually a good thing since it makes the nation flexible in what to do in this role-play. Maybe sell information on both sides? Project the interests of Belantica as well?

Aruia, from what I've seen, is another nation wary of Balnik. They're right on the border and Balnik's grandstanding in Roendavar and the Faronna Islands would, naturally, make them worried about their future. After all, if Roendavar falls, who's the next one on the borders to face Balnik? Perhaps Aruia can focus on Balnik and do what it can to halt Balniki progress. Open another front in Rustov? Take the espionage war to Balnik?

Ostehaar, I think, is another force of "good" in the sense that it acts upon the preservation of Gael. I see that they're proactive as well, considering the amount of cooperation the spy agencies of Gael already has with Ostehaar before I came into the picture. They could be present in both Roendavar and Balnik, the former to weed out Balniki agents and to secure information on both sides and the latter to, hopefully, stall Balniki progress.

Biaten, with such a small country, truthfully (and please don't hate me) can be seen as an under-dog in the fight in Gael. It's not a bad thing, per se, since that would open options for Biaten to further its interests in the fight in Gael under the projection of a country that has the most to lose in the conflict, therefore, the most to show. While other nations in Gael can be mediators, Biaten can serve as the true mediator in this conflict, a small country where big nations will be humbled when the time comes. I don't know how the story will unfold yet but I'm just throwing out options in the meantime.

As for the story, we could go with three routes (1) continue the underground war that will eventually result in the return of Gael's status quo pre-Faronna Islands, (2) continue the underground war that will eventually result in the acceptance of the current state of things in order to avoid conflict, or (3) continue the underground war that will lead into war in Gael.

Routes (1) and (2) would have the story continue in its underground war. Roendavar would weed out the Arrangement and Balniki connections in the country. Balnik would continue its activities of trying to gain influence and access to countries in Gael. The only difference is the outcome, whether or not we can return to pre-Faronna or keep post-Faronna. This is the safest route for all of us and wouldn't need that much effort to maintain. There would be no lasting consequences and things in Gael could stay as it is, not counting minor changes.

Route (3) would have things slide down the slippery slope of conflict. Perhaps, someone, somewhere, along the line, war would be inevitable. It can be the result of a defector revealing plans for war or the underground war eventually spilling over and being revealed to Gael, thus, necessitating a conflict between the countries. This is the high-risk, high-reward route in my opinion in terms of OOC. It guarantees the highest amount of engagement with a story-line, although, it may alter Gael for years to come.

I need all of your opinions on this. Once we figure out what route we are going to take, we could start working on a plot and finally figure out the interests and end goals that we want for Gael. I have high hopes for this role-play to increase activity in Gael and (OOC) to finally prove that we are the best region in TWI. So, please, do tell me your opinions and how you see yourself in here.

[Balnik]

I naturally have gravitated towards the third route, however I am the most wary of it. All of you must be aware that if we went down this path the risks and consequences would be massive, this would alter the region for a long time and our nation's perhaps permanently.

[Ainslie]

Thanks to Roendavar, it has become clear that Biaten, Thromsa and Ainslie are all in a similar situation and have a common role to play in this roleplay. As such, it makes sense for a storyline where us three come in at similar times to be built. So, here’s the plan we’re likely going to run with.

Essentially, Biaten, Thromsa and Ainslie will open with posts examining the general playing field and how each nation may respond to the occurences in Shadow Over Gael. Within the Ahnslen context, this will look at the doomsday cults primarily in the new understanding the Government has gotten about them particularly with regards to their links to Balnik, the Independent Nationalists Party and the intel we’ve been getting through our G4 partners.

This will culminate in an informal and quiet (ie not common IC knowledge) arrangement between Thromsa, Biaten and Ainslie to try and ease tensions but also try and ensure some certainty in the de-escalating situation. This arrangement will consist of information sharing, collaborative discussions and an outward unified front towards the circumstances going down in western Gael.

As always, any feedback or pointers are very much appreciated. I’m not all that read in on this roleplay so if there’s anything i’ve missed or an opportunity not taken let me know.

[Dormill and Stiura]

Dormill and Stiura, from what I've seen, is a pragmatic nation. Based on the previous posts, they act on the good of Gael, albeit, not without their own interests thrown in. Dorm is a balancing factor in this role-play, and based from how the posts are writen, will continue to be so.

As for the story, we could go with three routes (1) continue the underground war that will eventually result in the return of Gael's status quo pre-Faronna Islands, (2) continue the underground war that will eventually result in the acceptance of the current state of things in order to avoid conflict, or (3) continue the underground war that will lead into war in Gael.

Routes (1) and (2) would have the story continue in its underground war. Roendavar would weed out the Arrangement and Balniki connections in the country. Balnik would continue its activities of trying to gain influence and access to countries in Gael. The only difference is the outcome, whether or not we can return to pre-Faronna or keep post-Faronna. This is the safest route for all of us and wouldn't need that much effort to maintain. There would be no lasting consequences and things in Gael could stay as it is, not counting minor changes.

Route (3) would have things slide down the slippery slope of conflict. Perhaps, someone, somewhere, along the line, war would be inevitable. It can be the result of a defector revealing plans for war or the underground war eventually spilling over and being revealed to Gael, thus, necessitating a conflict between the countries. This is the high-risk, high-reward route in my opinion in terms of OOC. It guarantees the highest amount of engagement with a story-line, although, it may alter Gael for years to come.

I need all of your opinions on this. Once we figure out what route we are going to take, we could start working on a plot and finally figure out the interests and end goals that we want for Gael. I have high hopes for this role-play to increase activity in Gael and (OOC) to finally prove that we are the best region in TWI. So, please, do tell me your opinions and how you see yourself in here.

Gday Roen and thread. I'll be taking this post to go over what my plans are for the remainder of this RP and the next steps we take from there.

Addressing Dormill and Stiura's Role in Shadow Over Gael
So far, I agree with the assessment that Roen had put out for the current trajectory of Dormill and Stiura in Shadow Over Gael, it is a powerful nation with a vested interest in maintaining Gael's present political and economic stability, which in most instances are for the good of all Gael. That said, I don't think I am comfortable with the idea that suggests Dormill and Stiura is being reactive so far (granted, that's exactly how it's been written), the United Republics is an active force throughout the region and it would be making more active moves to counter both the cultists and Balnik. In that respect, after my next planned post, expect my agents both public and private to be much more proactive in this underground war.

Regardless of what comes next, the ultimate goal I have is to have Dormill and Stiura gather its allies in Gael and confront Balnik once and for all, to isolate it from the growing web of allies it has begun to form, and (if all goes well) force Andre Chernobog out of power and replace him with a government that is more amenable to the status quo of Gael.

The Next Posts
On the topic of what comes next, I should obviously give out a rough list of topics I intend to cover with my next posts, which are not in any specific order but should be seen as progressing to the eventual end of this RP.

• The Bureau agents Cédric Roux and Faelian Pitt learn from a contact within Docaria that Balniki agents were involved in the attack on Oeris Ninth Club. DONE
• Bureau leadership in Chery learns this information as well, and takes steps to increase their presence in Docaria, regardless the consequences they might have to face from all involved. Cedar Dyson will also learn of this and offer his input, encouraging the possibility of putting the "Surgical Warfare" concept teased as part of my brief on Utmost Secrecy, that is to train otherwise regular parts of the United Republics Army in special operations in order to make large portions of the overall army ready to fight in less traditional manners. DONE
• As the Bureau begins to double its efforts, Roux and Pitt start their mission to track down the Balniki agents before being sidetracked to go after Valeris (I want to cause tension between the Bureau and HEI over who to go after as a side-plot for this RP) NEXT POST
• First fight between Bureau and Balniki agents; this will most likely end in favor of Balnik as D&S would still be operating under a strict rules of engagement that gets exploited during the fight. I don't intend to have a major character die but I do want to emphasize the subsequent need to escalate against Balnik. NEXT POST
• Tied directly to the first proper fight between our agents, the Bureau starts to stumble a bit and rushes escalation, this is handled on by both the agents on the ground and via diplomatic channels, but ultimately the Bureau manages to even insert a full 5-man Joker's Deck team to Roendavar to fight Balnik, something it hasn't done since Reunification (Orsandia, were he still here, would count). DONE/NEXT POST
• The Big Plan; It is revealed to D&S around here that a major attack is being planned against Docaria itself, possibly involving thousands of civilians. All of the available resources are now put to stopping this plan before it is put into motion.
• Finale A: In a major confrontation with all of the players brought in by this point, the combined forces of the HEI, the Bureau, and allies, are victorious in preventing Balnik and its allies from executing the attack on Docaria. While the shootout and its aftermath would be impossible to avoid, this opens the path to all three Routes, as it can be either brushed aside or force the participants to escalate further.
  Finale B: In contrast to Finale A, in Finale B, the attack is not prevented, and Docaria is struck by an attack rivaling the violence of the Hyacinth Cries. The depth of this kind of loss is felt across Gael, and forces Roendavar and the United Republics to consider war with Balnik as reparation, leading us through Route 3.

What comes next?
Ultimately, I share the sentiment that Balnik has about the ultimate course of this RP and its effects. I want to go down Route 3, if not only to finally fulfill the war with Balnik that we've been wanting to do ever since we originally joined TWI, but to also fundamentally shake up the status quo in Gael and reinvigorate its roleplaying environment (and subsequently TWI's as a whole). At the same time, I also agree that going down this route would require all of us in Gael to figure out both for ourselves and as a collective what comes of this war and what changes will come as a result. As a preview of this, here's some initial thoughts I have about the things that are certain about this from D&S's perspective.

1. Dormill and Stiura alone will lose at least 25,000 people to the conflict, realistically upwards of 100,000 and more. If attacked by Balnik or its allies directly or invaded, these numbers will go higher.
2. The war will be long, bloody, and costly. While a direct invasion of Dormill and Stiura is unreasonable, an invasion of Roendavar and the subsequent dedication of Doraltic forces there will take up the bulk of associated costs. I cannot expect this war to end before mid-next year, possibly later still as Balnik can field a lot of manpower and industrial might into Roendavar. The overall aftermath of the war, from any occupations or other post-war tensions, will likely last the remainder of this decade.
3. Cedar Dyson's political career would be forever shaped by this war, for good or ill. For the rest of history, Dyson will be remembered as the President who led the nation through the war against Balnik, if he wins, then he will join the ranks of the nation's most revered heroes; if he loses, then his career is done then and there and the transformation of the political system his presidency started will accelerate in new trajectories at the expense of state stability.
4. Dormill and Stiura's international relationships will forever change. Regardless or not the outcome of this war, Dormill and Stiura will fundamentally change its foreign outlook when its over. During this, any who gave aid to Balnik will now be considered as enemies of the United Republics, and those who have given aid to Dormill and Stiura will be considered crucial allies. This may well be the war that ends Dormill and Stiura's issues with the Mesder but only if they stand on the side of the United Republics.

Second to this, and probably more importantly considering the situation with Noronica, we also need to consider the possibility that any of us could leave NationStates or TWI after we go down Route 3, which will require the rest of Gael to consider what comes after us. In that case, and this will be a sentiment I will stand by for D&S should I leave again, the fairest option would be to accept that we can let this go from the overall regional canon if it comes down to any of the key players going away after this is done. For as painful as the idea is, I believe that we should all agree on that point alone.

[Belantica]

The best way to put it is Belantica, while it does maintain some alliances with eastern Gael nations, tends to leans towards a neutral position when it comes to continental/regional affairs in order to maintain what it sometimes referred to as "western harmony", which basically means avoid any sort of major conflict. With this in mind, Belantica is also a nation that generally speaking, will put it's own interests before the interests of it's neighbors or allies (I know, it isn't very cash-money, but that's how the UQs conducts its foreign policy). Belantica in Shadow is basically a place for both sides to conduct their schemes while at the same time, deal with Belantica's intelligence agencies and law enforcement.

Dormill and Stiura, with your nation having a military presence, I would not be surprised if intelligence agents are operating within my borders. This also opens up the door for Dorm's agents to monitor any Balniki activities ongoing within Belantica. However, because of the desire to maintain neutrality and not drastically drift towards one side, the Office of State Security and the Foreign Intelligence Service would want to track D&S's activities with the UQs, and possibly step in and quash their activities should they attempt to cause a major rift in Belantica's affairs with other more authoritarian regimes, notably Balnik.

Roendavar, a pragmatic state is very close to what Belantica is. While it does maintain an alliance with D&S to have a small presence within western Gael, it also engages in trade with Balnik. It also would have ties to Roendavor due to close proximity (although interactions could be just trade and economic only, or could also have a military alliance of sorts). Either way, Belantica's main goal, is to ensure that it doesn't have to enter a war on any side, and if need be, act as a mediator between Balnik and Dormill should tensions escalate. It could serve as the means for Belantica to exert itself more in Gael's affairs and begin to slowly reduce their reliance on others and become it's own little "bubble". But in the end, it's suppossed to be quite flexible.

[Aruia]

I like the direction in general. One note though that is important is that Aruias armed forces never were an active part of war but on the support or defense line.
I think assisting in setting up bases, or forming espionage points and playing the economical war like thwarting supplies or increasing war funding would be Aruias role.
Especially when Aruia has several foreign bases in it, would make force Balnik to be on several fronts at once.

[Roendavar]

Here are the plans for Roendavar's part in Shadow Over Gael.

• Valeris meets with Sylvanus and admits the cults' involvement in the matter. This would warrant a meeting between the HEI as well as the Arveimeion to discuss a plan of action and share their information with one another. The King would be in attendance and would order an immediate purge of Roendavar. (1 or 2 posts)
• A massive secret investigation would be conducted by the HEI to purge Roendavar of any people that may have connections with the Balniki. HEI would be split into two: to act against Balnik and to act against internal threats. Roendavar's storyline would branch here. Sylvanus and Valeris would continue to monitor and go after the Balniki agents while Theremiel, Galaeren, and Theosarion (characters in Oh Night Unholy) would go after Roendavareil elements, such as important people with connections to Balnik and wayward cult members. Planning to introduce most of the Arveimeion at this point (with one of them already quite popular in TWI) (2 to 4 posts)
• Valeris would be tracked down by the Bureau and he would take them to the HEI headquarters. HEI would admit cult involvement and their close ties with the Roendavareil government. This would prompt a meeting between all concerned and "allied" agencies (Bel, Aruia, etc.) on the course of action regarding Balnik. We can discuss about the prospect of war or share knowledge of the incoming planned attack during the Roendavareil Afaril. (2-3 posts)
• Fight between the Bureau and Balnik would happen and Roendavareil agents would arrive late in the scene. (1 post or mentioned in passing)
• The fight between the Bureau and Balniki agents would leak and more and more people would be suspicious of current events in Roendavar, considering the Oreis Ninth Club was immediately covered up and the investigation into the attack on Athalymos and Thersos have not finished yet. (1 post)
• The Finale would involve the convening of the Afaril at the High Council, where all government and important people in Roendavar, including the KIng, would be in attendance. Outside, the people of Dociara would be staging a mass protest regarding recent events and to attend the broadcast of the Afaril. During the event, HEI, the Bureau, and any other elements would try to stop Balniki agents and their Roendavareil counterparts in their planned attack at the Afaril. Two ways that this could end. (2 to 5 posts)
  A: The attack would be thwarted in a high-stakes secret operation that would be kept from the general public. Perhaps tense moments during the Afaril and covert assassinations all the while avoiding the press and the eyes that would be surrounding the event. It is here that the King would reveal the underground war in Dociara and ask for the vote on the course of action Roendavar will take. Publicizing it would also reveal to the region about the underground war in Gael.
  B: The attack would be successful and several elements of the Roendavareil government is killed, most likely the Andavarian Grand Duke and Thronai, Catalin Tharvelin Desmothon, which has served as Andavar's Thronai for three decades and has served as the King's mentor. Though I don't see any deadly attack on the crowd, probably a few deaths here and there wouldn't hurt. This event unfolding before the entirety of Roendavar would surely throw the crowd into a frenzy or a riot. Most Roendavareil would call for immediate sanctions against Balnik.

Either outcome of the Finale can be used for war or peace in Gael, depending on the route we will take. Since war seems to be the consensus, we just have to figure out how we would end it. For now though, I suggest we focus on how we're going to get the story there.

[Balnik]

Hello, you all know me. So basically we have been brainstorming the future of Shadow, afterwards, and the result of the war. Myself and Dormill have spoke about having another RP following Shadow, possibly in Keverai, or Charbangia, with goals to let the Gael conflict simmer in the background, to provide further context and events in the Gael cold war, and most importantly, to foster cross region interaction and bring trans-Gael nations into a large RP. We will have more news later as it is currently in its infant state, however it will most likely come after Shadow with hopeful timeline projections being during the summer.

As for my second point, Balnik's goals in Shadow. With the main goal of destabilizing Roendavar, a parallel plot point will revolve around a defector that will be fleeing to the allies with plans of the Balniki invasion of Roendavar. Chernobog is struggling to keep his officers in check with a divide between the but dwindling senior officers and the hardline, radical, and ambitious junior officers. The defector will be one of these junior officers who is still loyal to Chernobog, but would not see Balnik plunge into a devastating war. Balnik will be attempting to kill this officer using the agents in Dociara and the Allies will be retrieving him. With the revelation of the plans and the attack on the finale of Shadow, tensions will be high and rapidly rising to their boiling point, leading to a possible Gael war in fall/winter.

For my third and final point will be the end goal of the war itself. We have decided that total defeat and stalemate will not be one of the possible outcomes, the complete defeat of either nation to the point of no longer being a threat will hurt future RP and intrigue of this storyline, same goes for stalemate, with a white peace essentially making all of the RP null and futile.

With that said this is my hopeful future prediction for the Cold War: Gael storyline as of now, I look forward to hearing your input, especially on the first point.

[Aruia]

I think my base course of action is to assist his allies in reaching intelligence or information on Balnik. Meaning, assist Ainslie and other nations in placing bases of operation and providing information technology services.
And actively forming a barrier for Balniks ground troops to come from.

[Ainslie]

Time to talk a bit about Shadow over Gael and the upcoming involvement of Ainslie in this garbage fire you've got going. In this post will be some relevant information about Ainslie's past and a description of what is likely to go down in the future.

Cults
Since the beginning of Ainslie's canon OOC, I've pretty much always had doomsday cults in my canon - they've been the national joke, something to point and laugh at and be thankful we're nowhere near. They were also key (not IC knowledge yet) in Buzz distribution during The High Life and through worldbuilding them a bit more have adopted a more Protacist quality to them (which they are now presumed to always have). Essentially, they exist as extremist offshoots of folk protacism, operating in Ainslie to await and usher in the end of mankind. Of course, they need to finance their adventures and daily operations so they'll be increasingly turning to crime - importing Buzz again (which'll fail, more on that later), armed robberies and various low level crimes in order to keep cash flow going. They will also become closer to the Roendavarian cults and to others too, in an effort to increase awareness of them amongst protacist communities both as a recruitment tactic and to build a reputation.

Misinformation, Conspiracies and Lies
As the activity of Ainslie's two major cults - the Brotherhood and the Disciples of the End - increase, there will be a growing wave of public opinion against Protacism and the nation of Roendavar and its people. This will emerge mainly out of the central-west of the nation, which is more conservative and nationalist than the rest of the nation and will expand outwards to influence more hearts and minds. By being paid off by Balniki intelligence, Jerigan hackers and internet operatives will begin spreading rumours, lies and further fuel hate towards the people of Roendavar, Protacism and the people involved with both of these. This will turn much of public opinion in the west of the country against them.

Why is this relevant? Ainslie's government and its people have had a close relationship with Roendavar and if it were to be invaded the natural course would be for Ainslie to help defend it and Ahnslens to be supportive of that despite the strong sentiment of the need for neutrality in most matters involving wars and conflicts. This time, the people would probably back an intervention.

What the misinformation does is muddy the waters a bit - it splits and divides public opinion to the point that if the Ahnslen Government were to openly support the Roendavarians, the Ahnslen people would be very angry and some would even object to the prospect of putting boots on the ground in Roendavar. This leaves Elliana Gifford and her government in a very difficult position - being neutral is the only option given the lack of public sentiment for supporting the Roendavarians (who would be seen as being unable to control the extremist organisations amongst them - aka they had it coming kinda view) yet the bilateral friendliness of the two nations demands that the Government respond to the events in Roendavar. This will force Ainslie into a position of 'active neutality' akin to the position it adopted in Imperial War One.

Train station shooting
An Ahnslen is going to be shot and killed in the climax of Shadow, which leaves the government deeply concerned (based off of its intelligence it receives through the G4) that massive instability could erupt in Roendavar and in Ainslie if the killing is not well-managed. I'm not 100% sure what I'll do at this stage but I know at the very least that the Ahnslen Government are gonna wanna keep this quiet both from the rest of the nation and from the Isles at large.

Buzz
The resurgence of Buzz offers an opportunity for Ahnslen authorities to trace back the origins of where it came from. Evidence will lead to the conclusion that Lawrence Jackson (a convicted former politician hiding from the Ahnslen Government in Balnik, who offered asylum to them) coordinated the cults into destabilising the country through re-introducing the drug into the nation. Obviously this will be controversial and it'll look like it's the government trying to scapegoat or further isolate the party he founded politically. A MADSA warrant will likely be filed in order to attain Jackson's arrest, but it is up to the Balniki Government whether they approve it.

All of the above, put together
This will create a situation where Anti-Protacist sentiment is very high, hate of the independent nationalists party is high, and the Ahnslen people cry out for further measures to take the cults down in Ainslie. Pursuant to this, Ainslie implements laws similar to that of active neutrality in IW1 and goes on a full authoritarian bent trying to shut down these organisations. Naturally, as this is of course Ainslie, that causes legal battles in the courts the outcome of which I have not decided on yet.

Roendavarian King
As Roendavar gets invaded, the King is likely going to run off to somewhere to hide in exile until such day he can return to Dociara. On short notice, the Ahnslen Government will learn that he plans to touch down in Arnton and seek asylum in Ainslie. Thanks to the media, knowledge that the Roendavarian King is in Arnton will filter through to the doomsday cults who I suspect still watch television, who organise an assassination attempt. This attempt will fail but will lead to the Ahnslen Government openly saying that the King has left the nation at Ainslie's request (because we don't want harbouring the King to harm our neutral stance). In reality, we take him quietly in an armoured car and put him up in a lodge deep in the forests of the Wesland Ranges. I'm not sure where to go from there

(attempting) to stop a war
Ainslie will be keenly involved in diplomatic efforts to avoid the escalation of tensions boiling over into a war, and is happy to host a summit where necessary and desired.

I think that's all my involvement over the next few months written out - things will change over time and be adjusted to fit storylines and my increased understanding of the sorts of things I should write about in these various posts. Any ideas, potential points of collaboration or suggestions are very welcome.