[OOC] [TWI-Only] Preserve/Profit

[Ainslie]

IC | OOC | Dispatch

[Athara Magarat]

Gday? TIme to make profit?

[Vancouvia]

Very interesting stuff

[Scantarbia]

bookmarking myself up

[Almorea]

Tag, oil companies will be looking to make a buck (or millions)

[New Aapelistan]

As Ain proposed for Aprosia to be a side story, in some form, in this RP, le tag.

[Ainslie]

Hey, so when this kicks off and people rush to get resources, IPNO (an environmental group - think WWF crossed with your local national parks organisation but at an international level) will start running around the corridors of power to try and persuade nations to hold back, condemn or not facilitate companies rushing to extract what's at Southpaw. I reckon this could make for a good IC post eventually - just wanted to throw the idea out in the thread to see if anyone's keen on it.

[Ainslie]

First IC post now up: viewtopic.php?f=4&t=479639&p=36612618#p36612618

News post will be up within 24h, from there we can broaden the scope of who and where people can write about.

[Corindia]

hey, Scantarbia, this reminds me, after you got into a fishing rights scuffle a few weeks ago I got to thinking that we could form a Southern Seas resource coalition that will essentially allow us to coordinate anti-illegal fishing and resource harvesting and also blacklist certain ships for violating the laws of member nations. Basically a liaison program for our (and potentially others) coast guards. If you're interested it seems potentially relevant to the RP.

[Ainslie]

the discovery of the resources is now public: viewtopic.php?f=4&t=337003&p=36614400#p36614400

If you're not an ally of ainslie or a gaelitic neighbour, you now will know for sure IC about this and can act accordingly

[Scantarbia]

hey, Scantarbia, this reminds me, after you got into a fishing rights scuffle a few weeks ago I got to thinking that we could form a Southern Seas resource coalition that will essentially allow us to coordinate anti-illegal fishing and resource harvesting and also blacklist certain ships for violating the laws of member nations. Basically a liaison program for our (and potentially others) coast guards. If you're interested it seems potentially relevant to the RP.

Sure, seems interesting

[Dormill and Stiura]

Alright then!

Now that I am finally back on the map I can get involved in this lovely stuff again! And what a doozy this is. I remember we've been planning to do a Southpaw RP for ages but it so frequently fell through because of so many people coming and going and activity just slipping around the place like a kid on a bed of ice. I love the intro Ains and I would love to be involved. Speaking of, lemme get into what exactly D&S intends to do here.

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Doraltic Situation and Plan

• Cedar Dyson has won his second and last term as President of the United Republics, and his party, Dormill and Stiura, Forwards has a much wider range of control in Congress, dominating both of its chambers.
• Forwards, as a Federalist party, remains on the side of the environmentalists in what's to come. However, the Dyson administration sees the value of having access to oil wealth as too great to pass up. There will be a conflict between Dyson and Congressional leadership over to what extent Dormill and Stiura involves itself and in what fashion.
• To Cedar Dyson, his main goal is to ensure the Atoll and its oil are protected from existential threats, either from state actors or non state actors.
• The worst case scenario for Dormill and Stiura in this RP is if either:
  • Non-state groups manage to render any operations in the Atoll unreasonable, including both military and commercial.
  • Razzgriz (the only nation close enough to the Atoll to actually have control over the Atoll) nationalizes exploitation of its resources, either through dragging into its territorial waters or nationalizing whatever domestic companies are involved in drilling in the Atoll and driving out competition.
• The best case scenario on the other hand are the opposites, ensuring that regardless of resource exploitation the Atoll is safe from conflict and allowing for Doraltic investment into the oil chain in the area, from drilling to refining to shipment.
• To accomplish these ends, if and when the security situation must be addressed, Dormill and Stiura will send a small naval task force to secure the island. The possibility of sending troops and establishing a base are present but if Dyson can achieve a security agreement for Southpaw with Razzgriz, then it would be unnecessary.
• In Gael, Dyson's goal would be to make sure the Gael Four does not become his enemy for the duration of this situation, and will dedicate his efforts and ambassadors to keep strong relations with G4 partners.
• There is a possibility of working internationally to influence Razzgriz to establish stringent environmental standards when it comes to drilling for oil in Southpaw. However, coercing Razzgriz to adopt them is not believed to be possible, given the historical relationship between him and I.

Finally, I would be happy to have a lot of protests across the nation for this, the people (especially those aligned to the Democratic Party) are very much anti-oil and will be very unhappy with Dyson basically going back on one of his biggest values.

[Ainslie]

The first name of your leader is a tree.

Sounds good - we can do an IC post relating to the Doraltic folk wanting to talk with the Ahnslens at the G4 if you'd like? Also news posts relating to protests would be very appreciated.

[Mokov]

I mean, Mokov has an oil based economy, and with the mainland oil fields out of commission, the surviving companies would look for a new location to get their supply.

[Dothrakia]

Sorry I'm a little late too the party.
Dothrakia would def be on the environmental protection side of things and while I don't think the eco insurgents would get support from the gov, they'd have popular support amongst my people and maybe a couple of them would even be Dothraki

[Mageek]

I've yet to decide whether or not my nation will depend on imports for oil, but even if it is, Yahyayev and the population in general would probably err just barely on the side of the environmentalists.

[Ostehaar]

OCES would love to fund anti-oil/gas protesters and insurgents...

[Roendavar]

I mean, Mokov has an oil based economy, and with the mainland oil fields out of commission, the surviving companies would look for a new location to get their supply.

You can just hop on in and join the ongoing explorations for Southpaw Atoll. You would have to contend with the others though.

Sorry I'm a little late too the party.
Dothrakia would def be on the environmental protection side of things and while I don't think the eco insurgents would get support from the gov, they'd have popular support amongst my people and maybe a couple of them would even be Dothraki

I've yet to decide whether or not my nation will depend on imports for oil, but even if it is, Yahyayev and the population in general would probably err just barely on the side of the environmentalists.

I will be writing a draft for the international Environmental Summit and it would be best if we could get a word from your delegates. As for your long term plans, that is still up to you.

OCES would love to fund anti-oil/gas protesters and insurgents...

Great! You can send either a diplomat for political reasons and have talks with the Roendavarian government if you want to do it covertly or you can send a delegate in the international summit to discuss your side openly. Just specify which side on the environmentalists you are on as some can get pretty violent and are tagged as eco-terrorists. This also applies to the other two countries I quoted previously.

[Almorea]

Almorea will have to send a delegate to the International Environmental Summit in order to lay out the government's official anti-exploitation policy.

Because there are congressional elections at the end of 2020, the liberal Hallowell administration has to move carefully. If it supports oil companies' efforts to exploit, it will damage its relationship with the environmentalist liberal base that will vote for its candidates. However, if it passes up the Southpaw opportunity entirely, it will miss a window to encourage some economic growth.

At the same time, the Almorean Oil Consortium will be moving to get a piece of the pie. This will start when it sends "consultants" to the Atoll to prepare the ground for the possible construction of equipment.

The Consortium will, no doubt, very quickly be drawn into a complex web of international diplomacy and obstruction. I doubt whether it will actually extract any oil at all. Attacks by eco-insurgents will force President Hallowell to deploy a naval vessel to "protect Almorean lives", giving him plausible deniability to throw some weight behind the Consortium's efforts; in fact, violence in the Atoll may thus be the optimal outcome for the Almorean government, for this reason.

[Dormill and Stiura]

Almorea will have to send a delegate to the International Environmental Summit in order to lay out the government's official anti-exploitation policy. ... in fact, violence in the Atoll may thus be the optimal outcome for the Almorean government, for this reason.

For once, you and I have different policy goals out here. As mentioned above, Dyson believes violence in the Atoll would be disastrous, especially since if violence results in a change of territory it could set a precedence that will upset the delicate balance of power in Swaneeak Atoll that will force the United Republics to focus its resources to defending what it has rather than expanding its presence deeper into the Southern Sea.

That being said, D&S will most definitely fight any attempt to seize control of the Atoll by force, allied or otherwise. I feel that our governments are going to have to discuss this situation on a personal basis before things get messy.

OCES would love to fund anti-oil/gas protesters and insurgents...

Same goes for you, Oste, alongside the rest of D&S's Gaeltic allies because any tension between us will only serve to make securing the Atoll and D&S's aims harder.

[Mageek]

Mageek would come to the conclusion that preventing exploitation is impossible, and would instead advocate for an international committee to heavily regulate all extraction and establish strict environmental zones, while also trying to get some of the oil for itself. However, a strong priority of the Magekite administration would to be prevent any single nation's hegemony over the oil supply, since anything close to an oil monopoly would be disastrous to Magekite's oil-importing economy.

If possible, Mageek would definitely send security forces to prevent the ironically environmentally-destructive violence of the eco-terrorists, while also covertly ensuring that Magekite interests are represented in the area.

[Ainslie]

Mageek would come to the conclusion that preventing exploitation is impossible, and would instead advocate for an international committee to heavily regulate all extraction and establish strict environmental zones, while also trying to get some of the oil for itself. However, a strong priority of the Magekite administration would to be prevent any single nation's hegemony over the oil supply, since anything close to an oil monopoly would be disastrous to Magekite's oil-importing economy.

If possible, Mageek would definitely send security forces to prevent the ironically environmentally-destructive violence of the eco-terrorists, while also covertly ensuring that Magekite interests are represented in the area.

So Mageek would be more aligned to the moderate NGOs like the International Parks and Nature Organisation?

[Mageek]

hm

So Mageek would be more aligned to the moderate NGOs like the International Parks and Nature Organisation?

Yes, I think so. Sorry if this is obvious, but where can I find the dispatches about relevant organizations?

[Ainslie]

So Mageek would be more aligned to the moderate NGOs like the International Parks and Nature Organisation?

Yes, I think so. Sorry if this is obvious, but where can I find the dispatches about relevant organizations?

Apologies - I definitely should've added these, so I'll link them here and then loop back and edit them into the OP. Remind me if I don't link other organisations that get more entangled into the RP if I forget. These are the major two at the moment though.

International Parks and Nature Organisation (IPNO) -> https://www.nationstates.net/page=dispatch/id=1038047
The Western Isles Environmental Research and Conservation Commission (TWI-ERC) -> https://www.nationstates.net/nation=roe ... id=1284608

[Almorea]

For once, you and I have different policy goals out here. As mentioned above, Dyson believes violence in the Atoll would be disastrous, especially since if violence results in a change of territory it could set a precedence that will upset the delicate balance of power in Swaneeak Atoll that will force the United Republics to focus its resources to defending what it has rather than expanding its presence deeper into the Southern Sea.

That being said, D&S will most definitely fight any attempt to seize control of the Atoll by force, allied or otherwise. I feel that our governments are going to have to discuss this situation on a personal basis before things get messy.

Indeed. Diplomatic engagement will be necessary to avoid any embarrassing situations, because Almorea does not have the military muscle or diplomatic clout to confront D&S, or the majority of other nations, over the Atoll while standing alone. Such a confrontation would represent a reversal of previous Almorean policy, and would likely result in some embarrassment.

Violence in the Atoll would benefit Almorea insofar as it would give an excuse for the government to use "official" pressure to support exploitation efforts, under the guise of protecting the assets of an Almorean company. This would relieve Hallowell of the responsibility to navigate a complex scenario where the attitudes of the Almorean voting public, Congress, oil companies, the IPNO, the League, etc, etc. all come into play. The outbreak of violence, especially caused by an insurgency, would eliminate all this and present Hallowell with a straight path to economic exploitation, with few headaches.