One year after the 2nd Yoloten War
Amir Saaid| 08 November 2023
The Coian Monitor makes a one year summary of what has occured in the aftermath of the 2nd Yoloten War
A year after a brutal conflict over the disputed Yoloten region in central Coius sparked the largest military invasion in recent memory. Both hindsight and time have given us a new perspective on what transpired exactly one year ago. Lavana is dead center of the disaster that they casually walked into, if not created outright.
During the partition of Estmerish-controlled Southeast Coius, the Yoloten, a small but populated princely state, was under the control of a Kachai Badi Zeja. This Zeja, a legal ruler over territory, was given the option to join either Lavana or Hacyinia. The Zeja contrary to Hacyinian officials opted to join Lavana. This decision quickly became unpopular, as citizens did not desire to join the majority Kachai nation, a feeling felt for large Majgar, and Ukilen populations in what would become Lavana. Estmere whose primary desire was to exit the region, and provide Lavana, a then anti-councilist state, with as much land as possible to counteract councilist Dezevau. Despite on paper a choice existing, most Zejas were coerced into joining Lavana, despite the wishes of their population, and or Zejas.
Seeking to readjust the border, and incorporate the Oroqic speaking populations of western Lavana, which had been denied an independent state, or entry into Hacyinia. The Khan of Hacyinia opted to launch an invasion of western Lavana. The war resulted in large swathes of territory gained by Hacyinia, including the Yoloten. However Hacyinia would not be able to exploit this opportunity, and by 1963, Lavana had reestablished its internationally recognized western border, which it maintains up to today, it did not conquer the Yoloten.
In 1992 and 1993, that would change, as Lavana would intervene on behalf of the Provisional Administrative and Military Front of the Yoloten (PAMFY), leading to the establishment of an internationally unrecognized state in the People’s Republic of the Yoloten. This breakaway state was propped up by Lavanan economic and military assets, which had long outpaced Hacyinia.
Between 1993 and 2023, a tense peace emerged. The Lavanan military would retreat in 2005 from the Yoloten, having obtained several concessions from the Hacyinian state. Although occasional terror and tension remained, both states understood their place.
Lavana in 2023 underwent radical change. Party infighting and squabbles resulted in a coup attempt by party hardliners to remove popular and reformist Premier Laina Keomany. The attempt ultimately failed, with Keomany introducing limited reforms and a new constitution for Lavana. The country quickly changed its calculus, reaching out towards Senria, and other former enemy countries, leading to a realignment of geopolitical goals in the continent. However, this party was spoiled by a Hacyinian-backed terrorist bombing in central Pers on October 1st.
What followed was a Lavanan over-escalation, and lack of restraint, leading to an 11 day massacre, where the Lavanan and Hacyinian militaries suffered extensive losses, while Zorasan. Hacyinia’s savior, exited the conflict as a clear winner. Lavanan overaggressiveness was rewarded with some estimated 20,000 casualties and the loss of large sections of the Yoloten to Hacyinia.
The Community of Nations, rushing to plug the gap, acceded to establishing a demilitarized zone to physically separate and monitor the militarized assets on both sides. A clear defeat for Lavana. However, danger still remains in the region, aside from the land mines left over from the conflict as well as the unexploded ordinance. A few months ago, Lavana and Hacyinia traded public figures, as Lavana assassinated Hacyinian Major General Akhmet Turlan in an elaborate ploy, while the president of the Yoloten, Narin Kegen, was killed in an explosion, which Lavana officially linked to Hacyinia.
A Community of Nations mission, requested by Lavana to check up on the Hacyinian chemical weapons program, identified no violations of any treaties signed by Hacyinia. Although it was noted that the nation maintained the ability to produce chemical weapons, its abilities did not surpass those of any other nation. Lavanan claims of systematic incorporation of chemical weapons into the Hacyinian military and possible terror groups were proven to be completely false.
Lavana The most potent change for Lavana was the sudden loss of invincibility against Hacyinia. Lavana believed its western neighbor to be a fundamentally flawed state. This calculus was not wrong; it was Zorasan that granted Hacyinia its victory.
Lavanan forces stormed through decades of Hacyinian defenses and fundamentally broke the Hacyinian military on its southern border within days of invading. Lavanan forces lay on the verge of securing the main road into Dabulug. Had Lavanan forces successfully broken through in the city of Karanganda and successfully closed the cauldrons of thousands of Hacyinian troops, we would be speaking of the Lavanan decisive victory in Hacyinia. Instead, what followed was a slow and costly retreat as Lavanan forces were pushed back on all fronts. Had Lavana not stopped the conflict when it did, there's no saying what the Yoloten would of remained for the PAMFY to rule over.
Laina Keomany, the former Red Queen at the top of Lavanan politics for what seemed like the foreseeable future, was forced to resign her position. The Red Queen, perhaps willingly reducing her role in politics ever since, has left the role to Emmanuel Bakhtzhany, the former Minister of Economy.
The Lavanan social and cultural fabric was deeply shaken, and riots in Lavanan cities threatened to topple the socialist order. While near public pogroms of Zorasani and Hacyinian citizens in Lavana led to international calls for the reestablishment of order. A year later, the country has not moved on from the terrible defeat it suffered. Most movies produced are directly connected to the war, while the Lavanan music scene has changed to better support a message of revenge.
The Lavanan military, having been gutted, has opted for a new strategy. Lavana possesses a large inventory of drones and anti-air weaponry, a lesson hard learned when Zorasan made drones tear through Lavanan lines. Lavana has not removed the foot from the pedal, seeking to bring its army to full pre-war strength. Even as sectors of the economy struggle or do not pan out, Bakhtzhany has vowed to return Lavana to its pre-war glory, yet that glory cannot make up for lost territory and a now increasingly difficult geopolitical situation.
Lavana has found itself rebuilding its short relationship with Senria, while Lavana’s strong allies of Dezevau, Valduvia, and Chistovodia remained skeptical of Lavana’s considerations when invading Hacyinia. Valduvia and Chistovodia have assured continued support for Pers, but Dezevau remains skeptical of giving what a revengeful Pers desires, least it influence another venture into the Yoloten.
Lavanan political and economic goals are in clear danger. Zorasani support for a dam in the Kung River would be a life threatening injury for Lavana. The nation is looking to beef up its military and state for no clear reason. Lavana cannot hope to engage the Hacyinians and Zorasani from a position as equals without the support of Dezevau and the rest of the socialist sphere. Then for what purpose does Lavana engage so aggressively in its military and security apparatus? Especially when there are other priorities? The Lavanan government continues its path, regardless of consequences, it seems.
Hacyinia Hacyinia, whose involvement in the conflict was rewarded with 21,000 casualties and their army being brutally outmatched by Lavanan forces, enters this one year anniversary as a strong nation. Although Hacyinia struggled against Lavana, the Khan left the conflict having regained a large section of the Yoloten, having defeated Lavana, and perhaps most importantly, having involved Zorasan directly in the region, for better or worse.
Makbule Arda Khan now stands as a strong and stable figurehead, with a Hacyinian nation that now stands more balanced than before the war. Despite the brutal suppression of Badist’s in Zorasan, Lavana has failed to exploit the religious divide in Hacyinia, with the Hacyinian population hellbent on its hatred for Lavana.
The Hacyinian military has not fully rebuilt to its pre-war state, less so its psyche. But it has striven to reach such a goal with the aid of Zorasan. Hacyinia’s largest problem now appears to be the influence its northern neighbor now commands on Hacyinian affairs.
The country's oil industry is still recovering from the purposeful sabotage by Lavanan sappers. With the aid of Zorasan, the country has been able to demine and repair facilities. Although it is by no means an easy or quick task. The repopulation of the invaded region has also proven difficult, and hundreds of thousands were internally displaced inside Hacyinia.
Hacyinia must now engage in state-building the newly reconquered Yoloten into an integral part of the nation. Using its new geopolitical reality to obtain as much as it can from its international relations, along with their natural resources,
As Hacyinia recovers from the conflict, it becomes clear that the nation must work on exploiting the end, at least at the moment of Lavanan dominance in the region. There is no saying what Lavana could do, if anything, if Dabulug opted to regain the entirety of the Yoloten. But that decision is not found in Dabulug but rather in Sattarishar.
Zorasan The war’s end and the Zoro-Hacyinian victory was met with colossal state-organised rallies and ceremonies dedicated to the victorious Zorasani forces and its “1,817 martyrs.” The intervention was deemed a great success and an example of “Zorasani martial superiority” in state media, a feeling universally held not just by society but by the triumphalist ruling elite. The National Renovation Front and its hegemonic masters in the military greeted the victory with the same glee as it did the intervention in Yemet - proof that Zorasan was on the path toward dominating northern Coius.
Zorasan’s 30,000 plus force, entered decisively from the north, slowed only by fleeing refugees along Hacyinia’s poor infrastructure. Once it reached the front, it delivered hefty blows to Lavana. Longstanding criticisms of corruption, poor training, and logistics were dismissed and invalidated. Zorasan’s use of precision strikes relying on land-attack-cruise missiles and strikes by its H-6 bombers devastated both air defences and air bases across western Lavana. However, the Zorasani Irfanic Revolutionary Air Force fell below expectations, the mass produced SAI Tondar suffering quite serious losses to Lavanan pilots; that Zorasan did not deploy the far more capable SAI Bagareh or Ronghui S-11 has perplexed analysts, but ultimately numbers won out. Zorasan has since announced plans to purchase over 50 more S-11 fighters and 30 Bagarehs, alongside billions being funneled into the air force for more extensive pilot training, a recognition of the ZIRAFs’ poor performance.
The star of the Zorasani intervention is the now-infamous Zamboor-2 unmanned aerial vehicle. A relatively cheap drone, it has decimated Yemeti rebels with impunity and now claims the same tally against Lavana. Orders for the drone have exploded, and since has been celebrated as a “symbol of Zorasani military engineering and prowess.”
Politically speaking, the victory consolidated the rule of the current Leadership Generation under State President Rahim Ali Haftar and Premier Gafur Qahor. Having already scored a reputational victory in Yemet, their decisive leadership in the Yoloten scored well with Zorasani society. Their success has left them with a Hacyinia now no more than a Satrap, a hefty blow against a recognized geopolitical foe, and a propaganda coup. Emboldened, the leadership now seemingly turns its eyes toward war-torn Tsabara.
Geopolitically, Zorasan is arguably and increasingly the most dominant military force in central and northern Coius. It now possesses a permanent military presence in Hacyinia, and with 18,000 troops now stationed in the country, its hold over Hacyinian affairs is unquestioned.
ConclusionThe 2nd Yoloten War has opened a Pandora's box in Coius that has realigned the political situation on the continent. The geopolitical realities of 2022, do not match those that have been found in 2023. The continent is flexing and releasing stress, leading to new realities for the nations of that great continent.
Lavana has been forced on the backpedal, and with its allies reconsidering their positions with the Pers regime, the nation must trace a path through the smoke. Hacyinia, as a nation, must navigate the well-charted plains of Zorasani influence and the opportunity for freedom of action. Zorasan, for its part, exists as the biggest winner of that conflict. The initiative of the continent seems to be firmly placed in that great nation, with little to no opportunity to shake from that position.