Backdating over rl stuff
NKP leadership - Meet the candidates.
Anne-Marie Keyserling
26 June 2022 | Wiesstadt, Werania
WESTBRÜCKEN, WERANIA - The NKP is due to elect its leader this week, with four candidates having applied for the leadership. We have looked at the candidates and how they got here and their chances - as well as those out of the race.
The NKP presidential election is overseen by its National Executive Board with the president elected by an electoral college of 1,850 members. Candidates must be nominated by at least fifteen NKP MdB's to appear on the ballot paper before a two round runoff vote is conducted amongst MdB's, MdL's and MEPs and party members. If no candidate receives 50% of the vote in the first vote a second vote is conducted usually a week later where the two candidates who receive the most votes in the first round will be featured on the ballot papers. The one who receives the most votes by fellow MdB's will go on to be leader. If the vote is a tie in the second round then a vote will be conducted by the entire party membership.
Nominations for the first round of voting were opened on the 20th May and closed on the 20th June. The first round of balloting will take place on the 28th and the second round (if there is one) on the 30th.
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DeclaredAndrea DäublerAge: 50
Current position: Minister of Justice, Minister for Women and Social Mobility
Career: A former corporate lawyer Däubler was elected to the Bundestag in 2007 where she would rapidly rise up through the NKP as a protégé of premier Rasa Šimonytė. When the NKP entered opposition Däubler would emerge as a popular voice within the moderate, centre-right faction of the NKP. Due to this she was appointed as Minister for Justice in 2019 where she has spearheaded attempts to privatise Werania's prison system
Pros: Däubler is well liked by both the moderate and conservative wings of the party with Däubler having loyally served premier von Hösslin unlike other moderates. She has moved to the right since entering government bolstering her appeal to party conservatives particularly on migration issues but remains popular with the moderate wing. Additionally Däubler is thought to have the support of party grandees including Šimonytė and outgoing leader von Hösslin.
Cons: Däubler's shift to the right has unnerved some of her old moderate supporters who have instead gone to support the insurgent candidacy of Roland Kaulbach. Additionally many on the party right distrust her particularly on her climate policy and support for the EC. Additionally she is less popular with the public due to a somewhat stiff personality.
Roland KaulbachAge: 62
Current position: Member of the House of Deputies
Career: The candidate with the most experience, Kaulbach is a veteran of the Šimonytė and Wittmann governments. Initially rising his way through Cislanian politics including a short stint as finance secretary Kaulbach was elected to the Euclean Parliament in 1994 and the House of Deputies in 1999. Seen as a bright young talent in 2003 he became Minister of Education before being given the portfolio of Minister of Social Affairs in 2007 and Minister of Finance in 2009. Kaulbach emerged as a leader of the NKP's moderate wing thereafter, having run for the leadership in 2012 and 2016 losing both times. He has since been a critic of von Hösslin opposing the shift to the right of the NKP.
Pros: Kaulbach is the only candidate to have not served in the von Hösslin cabinet so can plausibly reiterate calls for a change in direction. With a wealth of experience as a minister in the last NKP government Kaulbach has incredibly strong credentials and his dogged commitment to slashing spending and privatising public services will appeal to various economic liberals in the NKP.
Cons: Many in the NKP are uncomfortable with the public criticism of the government Kaulbach has done believing it has at times gone to far. Kaulbachs personality is additionally seen as arrogant and condescending by many whilst his connections to the private sector raise red flags for those wary about further conflict of interest scandals. Although memory of the late 2000s economic crisis is receding his time as Finance Minister was unpopular.
Andreas ScheelAge: 72
Current position Minister of the Administrative and Constitutional Reform
Career: A right-wing factional boss Scheel has alongside outgoing premier von Hösslin and former minister Ulrich Furler been one of the key neoconservatives within the NKP for decades. Widely seen as a numbers man in the upper house Scheel served in the Wittmann cabinet from 2009-2011 and since 2019 has been the Minister of the Administrative and Constitutional Reform. In his role Scheel has sought to shape the chancellery to the government's will as well as streamlining the coordination between the legislature and executive.
Pros: Considered to be the continuity candidate to von Hösslin Scheel as a long-time factional leader has the ability to rally support from his parliamentary colleagues. He is seen additionally as an ideas man having advocated for the restructuring of the Weranian state to be more efficient and centralised as well as introducing the idea of social entrepreneurship into the public discourse.
Cons: As a member of the upper house Scheel would have to enter the lower house to be premier - whilst there is precedent for the outgoing party leader to hand his seat to his successor in the event the latter doesn't hold one as occurred in 2018 when Josef Felder replaced Viktor Oberhauser there is speculation that Scheel would allow von Hösslin to stay premier and focus on running the party in the upper house, denting his credibility. Its believed that Scheel doesn't intend to win but to rather use his factional support to force the election to a second round and thereby emerge as kingmaker.
Anton RaicevichAge: 43
Current position: Minister of Defence
Career: The youngest candidate in the running, Raicevich comes from a family of Carinthian descent. He gained prominence as the leader of NKP's youth wing New Generation Forum in 2009 building links with right-wing parties outside the EC. He subsequently became involved in the politics of his home province, Wittislich, becoming minister-president in 2016 after his predecessor Moritz Freundlich resigned due to a corruption scandal. Raicevich would lead the party of re-election in Wittislich in 2017 and 2021. In 2021 he became Minister of Defence after the resignation of Ulrich Furler.
Pros: Raicevich is the most popular candidate in NKP party polling and he is the only one to have lead an executive. Although Raicevich is in the populist right-wing of the NKP he is considered more moderate then figures like Bullmann and is generally seen to represent a younger, fresher face for party conservatives.
Cons: Many feel Raicevich has been over-promoted and lacks the experience to lead the government. Many of the party moderates believe him to be a puppet of Bullmann and that he would only worsen the position of the NKP by increasing polarisation between the NKPs populist and moderate wings.
WithdrewOtto von HösslinAge: 69
Current position: Premier
Career: A longtime political fixer, von Hösslin has been at the forefront of NKP politics since the 1990s. Serving in the ministries of the Economy, Health and Defence from 1999 to 2011 von Hösslin would ascend to the NKP leadership in 2016 leading the party to victory in the 2019 federal election. Under his leadership the government has launched reforms of the public sector, a more anti-EC foreign policy and sought to introduce a "culture war" to Werania particularly over climate policy. However his leadership has been dogged by conflict of interest scandals.
Why they withdrew: The Hosokawa scandal. Complex in its details, the thrust of the scandal concerns the improper distribution of state resources via corrupt under the table deals with NKP-linked companies getting preferential treatment in public contracts. Von Hösslin was hugely implicated in the dealings which tanked the NKP's popularity leading to regional leaders to withdraw support for the premier. As a result von Hösslin announced he wouldn't run again.
Could they have won?: Unlikely. Von Hösslin withdrew because he lost the support of the regional parties, most importantly Cislania whilst his reputation among the federal parliamentarians also were poor. As a result the numbers didn't add up and he threw in the towel.
Jörg BullmannAge: 49
Current position: Minister of the Interior and Community
Career: The leader of the right-wing populists in the party, Bullmann catapulted into prominence after becoming NKP vice-president in 2016. He has promoted a mixture of Weranic nationalism, anti-immigration rhetoric and Euclescepticism, calling for a souverainiste approach to the Euclean Community being involved in "great replacement" rhetoric. Controversially appointed as Interior Minister Bullmann has had influence over other NKP policy, being a prominent supporter of the Tribune Movement in the government.
Why they withdrew: A plagiarism scandal combined with the Cislanian NKP branch throwing its support behind Raicevich's candidacy torpedoed Bullmann's chance leading him to withdraw and endorse Raicevich.
Could they have won?: Prior to the plagiarism scandal Bullmann was the main opponent of Däubler. However his inflammatory rhetoric would've made him a tough sell to party moderates and he is widely seen to have been behind the leaks that ultimately ended von Hösslin's premiership giving him a large amount of enemies in the party.
DeclinedBartholomäus StobrawaAge: 54
Current position: Minister-President of Cislania
Career: A close associate of Bullmann and Raicevich, Stobrawa led a takeover of the Cislanian NKP after it lost election in 2014. Promoting a populist programme combined with a charismatic personality Stobrawa led the party to victory in the 2018, wounding the federal government - led by former Cislanian minister-president Josef Felder - and establishing himself as the uncontested boss of the Cislanian NKP. Over the past four years he has emerged as an effective machine politician leading the party to re-election this year. Stobrawa is widely seen to have killed the premiership of von Hösslin and the candidacy of Bullmann after indicating he wouldn't swing the Cislanian NKP behind them.
Why they didn't run: Having just won re-election in Cislania Stobrawa promised to serve out as Minister-President rather then jump into federal politics. Many believe he would rather be a kingmaker then go for the top job.
Could they have won?: Most likely yes. Stobrawa is popular in the party and the general public combining hardline positions with a folksy, upbeat image. He is well regarded across the party as a pragmatist.