Ah! Ça Ira (AMW, OOC)

[The Crooked Beat]

This is absolutely the result of sloppy map-making on my part, but I'd just like to point out that the Gandvian 2nd Division along the River Bug is supposed to be heavily attacking the Nibelung 2nd Panzeraufklärungs Brigade, aiming to overrun its positions or force it back, rather than engaging in a more limited holding effort. Not that this is necessarily occurring, of course, but that would be the Gandvian intent.

While it really seems like something I should have changed earlier, I think your assessment of the Pav.84 as carrying a less-potent main armament than the Fafnir 2A6, anyway, is fair. Though it's based more on the Leclerc than the T-90, and is supposed to have been designed much more according to Western than Soviet principles, the Pav.84 is still most likely inferior, overall, in terms of protection, and its gun, while maybe somewhat close to the Rheinmetall L44, is most likely outperformed by the L55. The Gandvian response, I suppose, will probably be to try and counter the Fafnir's better gun with gun-launched ATGMs, and wherever possible try to hit them with laser-guided shells and heavy mortar bombs.

One more small point before I forget, I noticed that I mentioned 48 self-propelled howitzers in the opening attack post, but that actually should refer to 105mm self-propelled howitzers only. Out of laziness, I counted all the 152mm guns, towed and self-propelled, together.

Be back soon with some ideas for Ranalte!

[Cassanos]

This is absolutely the result of sloppy map-making on my part, but I'd just like to point out that the Gandvian 2nd Division along the River Bug is supposed to be heavily attacking the Nibelung 2nd Panzeraufklärungs Brigade, aiming to overrun its positions or force it back, rather than engaging in a more limited holding effort. Not that this is necessarily occurring, of course, but that would be the Gandvian intent.

While it really seems like something I should have changed earlier, I think your assessment of the Pav.84 as carrying a less-potent main armament than the Fafnir 2A6, anyway, is fair. Though it's based more on the Leclerc than the T-90, and is supposed to have been designed much more according to Western than Soviet principles, the Pav.84 is still most likely inferior, overall, in terms of protection, and its gun, while maybe somewhat close to the Rheinmetall L44, is most likely outperformed by the L55. The Gandvian response, I suppose, will probably be to try and counter the Fafnir's better gun with gun-launched ATGMs, and wherever possible try to hit them with laser-guided shells and heavy mortar bombs.

One more small point before I forget, I noticed that I mentioned 48 self-propelled howitzers in the opening attack post, but that actually should refer to 105mm self-propelled howitzers only. Out of laziness, I counted all the 152mm guns, towed and self-propelled, together.

Thank you for that clarification, I'll edit that bit a little. I don't think it changes too much in the first few hours of the battle, although it will force 2nd PzA to hold fast on its left flank longer, lest the Korps boundary is penetrated before reserves can move up.

Very good points about the Pav.84, I suppose it's one of the areas where I assumed a more Soviet approach simply because of Gandvik's location and the use of the 125mm smoothbore. That is, of course, not correct. I concur that the L/44 and the 125mm using modernised ammunition would be relatively close to each other in performance, with the L/55 having an edge in penetration and muzzle velocity. As for armour, I didn't intend to paint the Fafnir 2 as far superior, of course. I assumed from your description of a Nibelung KE projectile penetrating the turret armour of a Pav.84 during the Gandvian incursion that it might be able to do so at somewhat longer range than vice versa, althouth the Fafnirs would only have such an advantage from the frontal arc, and even there, the lower glacis is a weak point. I hope I haven't been reading too much into this. In the end, it's only a minor point, anyway.
Taking out tanks with guided artillery and bombs seems like a reasonable idea, and ATGMs would serve well in softening Nibelung resistance. Although personally, I haven't been a friend of barrel-launched ATGMs, since I believe their longer range is negated by their longer flight time as opposed to APFSDS - but that's a matter of personal taste .

No worries about the artillery, I was assuming that a large number of Gandvian artillery was self-propelled and armoured. Oh, which reminds of of a really minor tidbit - nothing of importance, but I like the ingenuity. In wartime, Germany's PzH 2000s can be equipped with rubber appliqué armour, intended to prevent bomblets from detonating. I suppose many Nibelung SPHs in Thortraia look a bit like porcupines, too .

Again, thank you for these clarifications - and if you see anything else you'd take issue with, please tell me. I know I have been saying that a lot, but I admire your insight, and I want to prevent myself from unknowing godmodding.

[The Crooked Beat]

Working on a response to your latest post, Cass, but one thing which I think we ought to address beforehand, is the reorganization of Gandvian air forces and air defenses that's resulted from Tulgary appearing in Sweden and Norway. Fighters and SAMs formerly deployed to protect those areas have been re-concentrated opposite Thortraia, so the number of ITO-300s (S-300s) has almost tripled, the ITKO-22s (Pantsir-S1) doubled, and fighter strength boosted quite a bit as well. This seems dangerously close to godmodding on my part, having these much stronger defenses appear all of a sudden after you've posted your attack, and in direct contradiction of my earlier post, but if there's no chance of raiding Nibelunc's Baltic flank, Gandvik would be nothing short of crazy to put those assets anywhere else.

For administrative convenience, let me add up the numbers for Western Command, not counting XIV Army except where specified:

-192 ITO-370 (SA-11) medium-range SAMs in twelve 16-launcher Army air defense battalions (including two from XIV Army)
-24 ITO-300 (SA-10) long-range SAMs in six 4-launcher Army air defense batteries
-120 ITO-300s in five 24-launcher Air Force regiments
-48 ITKO-22M (Pantsir-S1) SPAAG/SAMs in two 24-launcher Air Force regiments
-40 ITO-331 (Tor) short-range SAMs in 10, 17, 2 and 15 Divisions' air defense battalions
-112 ITKO-22P (Tunguska) SPAAG/SAMs in divisional air defense battalions
-30 ITO-330 (SA-8) SAMs in divisional air defense battalions
-160 Itka.95 SPAAGs in regimental air defense batteries
-240 40mm ITK.51 AA guns in Army air defense battalions

That, anyway, is the possible maximum in terms of major anti-aircraft equipment, not counting MANPADS or heavy machine guns. I don't have a terribly good estimate as to the number of radars we're talking about, but each four-launcher ITO-300 battery would have one for fire control, plus at least a couple dozen early warning and surveillance radars, many of them mast-mounted, in the rest of the Air Force.

Given that this whole mix-up stems from my poor record-keeping, I don't have any right to impose changes on the current IC situation, but depending on what we decide to do, those are the revised numbers, and if they're accepted, it would only be reasonable to allow some alterations in the Luftwaffe's plan of attack, if any alterations are desired.

The other outstanding issue seems to be Gandvik's tactical ballistic missile forces. With Nibelung tactical nuclear strikes against Aeropagitician fresh in their minds, I think that Gandvian leaders would only be willing to devote their shortest-range SS-21/RakH.76 batteries to the conventional role, so the question would be, how many TELs is acceptable? Possibly three 24-launcher regiments?

[Cassanos]

Sorry for being so late in posting my reply, I’ve been rather busy these past days, albeit with mostly very agreeable things (such as organising and hosting a party and going to a medieval market).

No worries about godmodding, TCB, I think this is a reasonable adjustment given the changed geographical situation. It does put me (and the Luftwaffe) in a somewhat difficult situation, I have to admit, but I think we can work it out. I propose the following changes to Nibelung operations:

1. Naval air operations:
Operation Jormungand, the Nibelung air raids against Gandvik’s Baltic coast, more of a political signal of Nibelunc’s resolve, anyway, will be reduced in scope and conducted exclusively by Bundesmarine and Marineflieger forces. In raw numbers, this means that the naval air grouping near Dun Hansa (Danzig) will be reduced from 34 to 16 Crahas. Assuming that another 24 Crahas remain in the west to deter Tulgarian aggression, this would leave a total of 56 naval air Crahas, of which around 40 might be used in the strikes against Gandvian coastal installations.

2. Available aircraft:
Of a total 360 Luftwaffe Crahas (including 36 dedicated SEAD/DEAD platforms), of which two thirds, 240 aircraft, strike across the Thortraian border. I feel I can’t increase the percentage of total aircraft by much, since I assume that even under optimal conditions (~95-98% available), some of aircraft will be kept in reserve or undergoing maintenance. Munstra has also sent about 30 Crahas to Rome and needs to keep some aircraft back in case Tulgary and/or Beddgelert decide to enter the war. I propose that the Luftwaffe can muster around 280 Crahas for a pre-planned first strike, including almost all available SEAD/DEAD platforms, if Operation Jormungand is reduced in scope.

These would be reinforced by around 100 Dohle light attackers and Nibelunc’s somewhat untapped LFA-80 fleet, adding another 200 aircraft to the strike. I.e., ~500 instead of ~350 strike aircraft. Numbers of escorting SEAD/DEAD aircraft and Arnans and Falchos would increase accordingly.
I believe his is possible if Munstra is willing to take a calculate risk in moving squadrons earmarked for the southern and western theatres east. Since Chrin has recently posted that Rome is sending aircraft and ground troops to Nibelunc (which will be addressed in my next post), there would be a gap between the Luftwaffe aircraft leaving and the Roman fighters arriving, forcing Munstra to fight defensively if Tulgary or Beddgelert strike.


3. Sidestepping:
If your statement that Gandvik’s Baltic coast is relatively weakly defended by modern anti-air assets still holds true, a not-insignificant number of Luftwaffe fighter-bombers could circumvent at least some medium-range air defences by flying around Amberland and striking at the Gandvian rear without braving what is probably the most daunting IADS in Europe, if not the world. This would, of course, mean either reduced payloads or less deep strikes, since Nibelunc’s fleet of airborne tankers is rather small.
Now, this is obviously written with your latest post in mind and thus something of an exploit. I’d make the point that the known locations of Gandvian air defence assets might indicate that the Royal Army has its eyes fixed on the west, not the north. This belief might be reinforced by Gandvik being markedly reluctant to strike Nibelung territory (apart from border crossings) during its initial strikes. If Riga believed that Nibelunc would show equal restraint, this maneuver might be seen as viable by Heerbann planners, and Munstra at least is reasonably sure that this is Riga’s point of view – after all, Operation Jormungand was greenlighted with the express purpose to shatter that belief. It is, however, still written with hindsight and entirely up to you if and to what degree this holds true.


4. Assorted tidbits:
The Hari would attempt to suppress Gandvian air defences in artillery and missile range before and during the strike. This will likely only affect SPAAGs, ITO-331s, ITO-370s and ITO-330s. From tanks and missile launchers attacking air defence vehicles where possible through artillery strikes at known air defence positions to a portion of MARS firing a handful of Balmungs at fixed ITO-300-sites. This would, of course, be only a minor effort, and the Nibelung ground forces would have to give even more ground during this suppression effort, since artillery support for ground operations would be reduced for an hour or two.
Also, would you think it’s feasible that the Ministry of Defence can be visibly damaged by only six 1,000kg bombs? This, and the release of the remaining 11 Alberichs, would mean that fourteen stealth aircraft could strike at essential positions (probably ITO-300 sites and radars) with tossed guided bombs, probably four 500kg bombs per aircraft. Not much, but maybe a little edge for the Luftwaffe.
I was also planning to keep a bit of Nibelunc’s EC©M assets back for later operations, but these efforts might increase as well (with a smaller reserve).
Finally, the start of the aerial counter-strike would need to be moved back by about two to three hours, at least, since the second wave of strike aircraft needs to cross a longer distance to the front.

Now, all or some of this might be considered true godmodding on my part (“Nuh-uh, you didn’t hit me!” ), but I hope that we can reach an outcome roughly similar to what we had before – Gandvian territory struck within hours of the war starting, the Luftwaffe throwing almost everything at Gandvik in an attempt to create an acceptable air situation despite likely taking painful losses.
I hope it doesn't come across as an attempt to negate your reasonable changes.

Oh, as for tactical missiles (which will also be addressed in my next post, as will be Weshield and diplomatic implications), that seems absolutely reasonable to me. Nibelunc authorised its own ballistic missile strike because it worked relatively well during the Desert War, and hopes Gandvik remembers that it didn’t use nuclear weapons there initially .

Phew. Yeah, I think that is about it. I’m looking forward to your response.

[The Crooked Beat]

That all looks fine to me, Cass. I certainly don't have any problem with you changing the particulars of your attack now that the defending side has itself undergone some major alterations!

I would say, though, is that strikes attempting to hook around Amberland would still face at least some opposition from AWACS-controlled interceptor squadrons, though nearly all long-range SAM equipment has of course been concentrated to cover the border zone.

I've finally posted about the air aspect of things, incorporating the points that you've outlined (though I seem to have left some things out, upon second reading), so it should be mostly taken care of.

One more thing I'd just like to ask is about the contribution of MARS launchers to air defense suppression. Clearly, with every individual MARS able to launch two Balmungs, it wouldn't take an excessively large number of them to target all the active Air Force SAM sites, of which, allowing one for each four-launcher ITO-300 battery, there are probably around thirty, along with perhaps a little more than a similar number of decoy or temporarily unoccupied sites at various states of complexity and preparation. Both Army and Air Force ITO-300s, basically identical to S-300V/VMs in the first case and a mixture of S-300VM/PMU2s in the latter, have some anti-ballistic-missile capability, and thus can probably expect to defend themselves to a point, but it will depend on how many Balmungs are being launched.

Again, I have to apologize for the state of my factbook, especially the post about missile systems. It has been badly in need of an overhaul for some time, and lacks a great deal of information that has lately become extremely important. For the sake of convenience, I'll just say, with everyone's approval, that the respective Gandvian missiles are in all practical respects identical to probably the latest two or three variants of their RL Russian equivalents. I've mostly been using this website for reference:

http://www.ausairpower.net/sams-iads.html

Though I recall hearing that it isn't exactly a completely trustworthy source in a lot of ways, it does have plenty of nice pictures and graphics, and I'm far too lazy to consult the manufacturers' websites.

[Cassanos]

I would say, though, is that strikes attempting to hook around Amberland would still face at least some opposition from AWACS-controlled interceptor squadrons, though nearly all long-range SAM equipment has of course been concentrated to cover the border zone.

That's definitely reasonable, and the Luftwaffe strikes is thus - as described before - escorted by Arnans and A2A-equipped Falchos, a portion of which will be patrolling across the Baltic anyway and escort the Marineflieger strike in. While the escorts engage the enemy fighters over Thortraia and the coastal region, the Crahas especially will try and make the most of their high-speed, low-level flying abilities. This will only be so useful, of course, in the face of S-300s and SA-11s.

One more thing I'd just like to ask is about the contribution of MARS launchers to air defense suppression. Clearly, with every individual MARS able to launch two Balmungs, it wouldn't take an excessively large number of them to target all the active Air Force SAM sites, of which, allowing one for each four-launcher ITO-300 battery, there are probably around thirty, along with perhaps a little more than a similar number of decoy or temporarily unoccupied sites at various states of complexity and preparation. Both Army and Air Force ITO-300s, basically identical to S-300V/VMs in the first case and a mixture of S-300VM/PMU2s in the latter, have some anti-ballistic-missile capability, and thus can probably expect to defend themselves to a point, but it will depend on how many Balmungs are being launched.

The MARS will be very preoccupied with firing mines and IPCMs at Gandvian armour and routes of advance, so I expect the actual number of Balmungs being launched to be relatively low - perhaps around 48 (that is, a maximum of 24 launchers out of a pre-war total of 132), although it's more likely that launchers are equipped with one Balmung and one regular pod. The rather long reload time of the MARS will also force these launchers to work at a reduced capacity before the strike.
Two Balmungs each would be fired at identified radar sites, if communications permit, those closest to the penetration corridors. A lot can go wrong here, though, and I expect a number of Balmungs to be launched at secondary targets such as command posts and intersections. They would be loaded with either bomblet/mine or a large FAE payload.

/EDIT: I realise I actually forgot to mention it, but I think it's reasonable to assume that the attacking force would go in in waves - not so much discernible waves, but rather an attempt to get in second strikes on some targets while the defenders are still shell-shocked. This goes especially for targets attacked with SRBMs beforehand.

[The Crooked Beat]

I very much hope Ian hasn't done that much work on his response yet, because I think I've done a very bad job of representing the Gandvian dispositions around Odenham. The fact that 23 Division is moving in three fairly widely-separated regimental columns should, I think, really be emphasized a lot more, and my post didn't give any real sense of motion or maneuvering, so I'll try to fix that post haste.

EDIT: Firefox crash just destroyed my changes, so I hope a map will clear things up in that respect.

As for places where Ranalte might score his major victory, obviously it will become much harder for V Force to move around once Gandvik has won the air battle, so it would probably make sense for him to make his move earlier rather than later. The area between Collundsbury and Newford seems like it might be the best place, simply because it would be hard for him to weigh-in on any of the other contests underway without first running into 1 or 35 Division, or at least being forced to cut across their direction of advance.

Perhaps a hard-driving Gandvian flying column finally catches up to a piece of K Force, and Ranalte, unwilling to leave his comrades to their own devices, rounds on 1 and 35 Division, both of which are still operating on the assumption that V Force only has two brigades, while they're strung out in widely-spaced regimental columns, and in a wide-ranging battle that his TS-96-720s stand to dominate, savages several and forces the bewildered Gandvians onto the defensive?

And regarding the western air campaign, that is all perfectly fine by me, Cass, though I really should have something better to say than just that! I'll try to give a better break-down of the Gandvian SAM force as soon as possible.

[Iansisle]

I very much hope Ian hasn't done that much work on his response yet,

Good news! I haven't started my reply yet!

Bad news! I, uh, haven't started my reply yet.

Well, not strictly true. I have a document open at home all formatted. There's just no content in between the spoiler tags. I do plan to work on it evenings over the weekend, though, and hopefully have something posted by Monday. All your ideas above sound pretty similar to what I was thinking, with V Force rounding on the two divisions chasing K Force. I'll probably work from that base assumption. Also good to see the maps around Odenham. I'll start thinking more about Hallershall's exact plan later -- most likely he doesn't have a clear picture in his head of Gandvian dispositions but will probably strike north along the fringes of Odenham proper using the city to hold his flank and seeking to get behind the Gandvian forces. That's .. a lot of artillery tubes his poor three batteries of 152mm guns will be facing though. I think it's like a 3-1 Gandvian advantage in artillery. Fun!

[The Crooked Beat]

No rush as always, Ian and Cass, and I'll continue trying to tidy-up my own post as I'm able.

In contrast to the campaign in Thortraia, and in the Fennfield-Marbleston area, I think the war east of the Daldan might almost end-up looking a bit like the Second World War in many respects. The Gandvians, at the very least, are operating in accordance with the principles that caused the Western Desert Force/8th Army so much trouble in North Africa, after all, moving around in disparate columns in an effort to get around enemy flanks, and prejudicing deep maneuver over concentration of force, thinking the Shieldian Army is more Regio Esercito than DAK, to use a quite possibly spurious analogy.

Also, Cass, I wonder if you might allow me to say that the Ilmavoimat has perhaps two regiments' (70-90) worth of mothballed Su-17/VL-34s lying around, in distant reserve, possibly able to be made ready for action in two or three months against large losses in front-line aircraft? I don't think it will change the military balance too much, but it seems to me like something the Gandvians probably would have done.

[Cassanos]

Well, not strictly true. I have a document open at home all formatted. There's just no content in between the spoiler tags.

^ This, I'm afraid, is a pretty accurate description of the situation on my end, too. I have a bunch of notes, but still need to form a coherent post. I hope to have something tomorrow or Tuesday, though. Oh, and I will be away LARPing from Thursday through Sunday, which means no internet.

TCB, that makes sense to me - the Luftwaffe also has a number of P.1121s mothballed which will become available from about twoo weeks after mobilisation.

[The Crooked Beat]

You'd all be justified in calling foul on this, and it's probably more than a little bit a case of taking advantage now that you've approved one of my last-minute augmentations, but I thought I'd ask if everyone would be willing to entertain a fairly substantial increase in the Gandvian military inventory, which, given what Gandvik spends on its military, seems a little sparse.

Let me summarize the changes I had in mind below:

-TelH.78 105mm self-propelled howitzer: from ~900 to ~1,800
-Pa.72 (FN 4RM/62F) armored car: from ~900 to ~1,200
-Mkv.64 APC: from ~5,700 to ~7,500
-H.85 152mm towed howitzer: from ~950 to ~1,400
-Reintroduce KPav.71 (Ikv 91): ~1,000
-Itka.95 SPAAG: from 340 to 440
-OHa.05 tank destroyer (basically Khrizantema on CV-90 chassis): from 270 to 300
-Introduce Mkv.64-based tank destroyer/assault gun: ~550
-ITO 330 (Osa/SA-8): from 240 to 340
-HW-24 attack helicopter: from ~90 to ~110
-Introduce self-propelled 40mm L/70 (similar to Bofors TRIDON): ~400

I don't want to change much in the way of front-line equipment, because that will obviously alter the military balance significantly and exert a considerable influence over underway RPing, but I think Gandvik probably would have manufactured, and kept around, a lot more weaponry, in particular 1960s-1970s items, than is reflected by the current summary of major equipment. That said, this will result in a much higher rate of mechanization among reserve formations, and a notable increase in terms of replacements for low-level air defense weaponry, but not, I think, to the point where it will change the course of this RP. At any rate, I don't want to make those increases official until I've received the green light from everyone else.

[Cassanos]

Alright. I neglected you guys shamefully, and as far as my defence goes, I can only say that I had a few weeks full of both personal and work-related* problems coming up, with uni as the finishing touch. I *am* sketching out bits of my replies whenever I can, and I will post as soon as I can. Tentatively, I'd say I can post before Sunday night, GMT. I hope you aren't bothered too much by my tardiness, and rest assured that I have not forgotten you. As I've said before:


So, well, I just hope you don't hold this against me :-/.

*Yeah, not so much of a problem, but it's campaigning time again, and as a member of the European Federalists, I'm rather busy convincing people that the EU is the best thing to happen to Europe for about 800 years .

[The Crooked Beat]

Yes, for shame! I'll consider forgiving you in exchange for Gandvian victory and occupation of Nibelunc...



For serious, though, no problem, and certainly no need to apologize about anything! Personal and work-related problems are far and away more of an excuse than I for one could reasonably ask for, and as a matter of fact, shocking though it may seem (to myself included), I may be approaching an extended stretch of much-reduced availability myself.

Best of luck on the political front too! And if EU-skeptics need persuading, just remind them of the Thirty Years' War! Or, I suppose, any one of dozens more wars alternatively...

Clearly I won't be of much help there!

[Iansisle]

*Yeah, not so much of a problem, but it's campaigning time again, and as a member of the European Federalists, I'm rather busy convincing people that the EU is the best thing to happen to Europe for about 800 years .

You're that big of a magna carta fan, huh?



I was actually planning to sit down and work on my post the day before yesterday, but then San Diego county caught on fire (again) and my computer has been sitting unplugged and ready to evacuate. Looks like things are calming down now, fortunately.